Nvidia gts450 benchmarks leaked

[evolucion8]

From STEAMs August 2010 survey (DX-11 video Cards), HD5700 series took a 3.4% dive and HD5800 series took a 3.28% dive since July. GTX 460 is hovering at 3.43% taking a plus 2.86% from only one month (August) and GTX 470 and 480 they shaw an increase too. It seams Gamers don’t buy HD5800 and HD5700 any more and they prefer GTX400 series.

Doesn't make much sense that people are moving from the HD 5770 and going to a GTX 460 1GB which doesn't buy you a lot of performance for the investment, it isn't guarantee that all of them are buying nVidia cards, there's people that are selling them to buy faster AMD cards, also who's gonna do a sidegrade from an HD 5870 to a GTX 470, is clearly from the article that I posted that the GTX 470, 465 and 480 aren't selling well.

GF106 could be a 240-288 Cuda Core part, 5 or 6 SMs of 48 Cuda Cores and 192-bit Memory Controller.

GTS450 is half the GTX460 1GB but GF106 die size is 240mm witch is much larger than half of 360mm GF104. As with GTX460 and GF104, I believe GTS450 will be followed by a GTS455 with a full GF106 core.

The GTS 450 is a 192 CUDA core with a 128-Bits BUS, considering that nVidia CUDA cores are tied to the BUS width, I doubt that they have more CUDA cores hidden, I think that due to the small step between the GTS 450 and GTS 455, the latter will be just a higher clocked version of the GTS 450 with GDDR5.

 

[Grooveriding]

We know ATI have most of the DX-11 market share but they constantly losing market share, they lost 4.19% in August from 4 GTX400 cards and the trend will continue all the way till December with the release of GF106 next week and DX-11 mobile parts all in the Back to School timing. Yes HD6xxx will be nice but it will be too late in 2010 to make a difference in market share.

I don't think you understand the way that system works.

Nvidia finally managing to introduce DX11 cards expanded upon the market and then added their product to the market.

Because of that increase to the market and nvidia's small presence now added to it, AMD has to show losses from having 100% of the share.

Now they show as having 90% of all the DX11 cards and nvidia with 10%, because nvidia finally came to market.

It is in no way an indication of a loss of share, but an increase in the market's size.

Crappy GTS 455 and 450 cards that are slower than last gen's GTX 260 are not going to make much of a dent in the market.

Brand new AMD 6 series cards with a new level of performance will.

 

[Genx87]

What is really shown there is AMD dominating the DX11 video card market. The current installed base of DX11 video cards, which is basically the only type of consumer level product being sold to the gaming market currently:

AMD - 87.01%
Nvidia - 12.79%

AMD has almost 90% of the market.

Expect AMD to continue this trend as well. The 6 series starts to roll out next month and AMD will continue to establish themselves with the superior DX11 cards as they bring second generation DX11 cards while nvidia is still only going to be offering old tech, first gen, lower performing cards.

Oh god really? You realize the trend is Nvidia catching up right? In March ATI had 100% of the market.

 

[Genx87]

I don't think you understand the way that system works.

Nvidia introducing DX11 cards at last expanded upon the market and then added their product to the market.

Because of that increase to the market and nvidia's small presence now added to it, AMD has to show losses from having 100% of the share.

Now they show as having 90% of all the DX11 cards and nvidia with 10%, because nvidia finally came to market.

It is in no way an indication of a loss of share, but an increase in the market's size.

Crappy GTS 455 and 450 cards that are slower than last gen's GTX 260 are not going to make much of a dent in the market.

Brand new AMD 6 series cards with a new level of performance will.

That is an amazing way to spin that lol. It is exactly what that means. Nvidia gained "market share" at the expense of ATI.

 

[Grooveriding]

Oh god really? You realize the trend is Nvidia catching up right? In March ATI had 100% of the market.

Not catching up, just trying to.

And with the 6 series coming, they'll keep on trying ()

 

[Genx87]

Not catching up, just trying to.

And with the 6 series coming, they'll keep on trying ()

When you start at 0 and 4 months later own 12%, that is catching up. Are you under some silly impression when everybody owns a DX11 card AMD will continue to hold an 88% marketshare on Steam?

 

[Grooveriding]

That is an amazing way to spin that lol. It is exactly what that means. Nvidia gained "market share".

Sure they entered the DX11 market and gained some of it. That in no way indicates AMD lost one iota of the 100% share of the market they had previously.

Their cards don't need price cuts to sell. GTX 460 continues to plummet in a bid to get sales before AMD launches the 6 series.

 

[Genx87]

Sure they entered the DX11 market and gained some of it. That in no way indicates AMD lost one iota of the 100% share of the market they had previously.

Their cards don't need price cuts to sell. GTX 460 continues to plummet in a bid to get sales before AMD launches the 6 series.

Yes it does, today AMD owns 88% of the market where 4 months ago they owned 100%. They lost market share. Not even sure how you could try to argue otherwise.

 

[Grooveriding]

When you start at 0 and 4 months later own 12%, that is catching up. Are you under some silly impression when everybody owns a DX11 card AMD will continue to hold an 88% marketshare on Steam?

Nope, because before everyone owns a DX11 card, DX12 and likely DX13 will already be upon us and if the current trend continues, AMD will have 80% of that market.

 

[Grooveriding]

Yes it does, today AMD owns 88% of the market where 4 months ago they owned 100%. They lost market share. Not even sure how you could try to argue otherwise.

I don't think you understand. His post indicated AMD is selling less and losing sales to nvidia. The Steam numbers show AMD completely dominating the DX11 market.

And nvidia gaining some overall market share does not show that AMD is selling less.

 

[Genx87]

Nope, because before everyone owns a DX11 card, DX12 and likely DX13 will already be upon us and if the current trend continues, AMD will have 80% of that market.

lol we will see.

 

[evolucion8]

I don't think you understand. His post indicated AMD is selling less and losing sales to nvidia. The Steam numbers show AMD completely dominating the DX11 market.

And nvidia gaining some overall market share does not show that AMD is selling less.

That's right, it isn't like all the people are dumping AMD cards for nVidia cards (Some do), is just that since AMD was the only one at that time offering a DX11 product, they were able to capitalize on that, now that nVidia had DX11 cards, other people including those that favors nVidia are buying them, but like you said, doesn't mean that AMD stopped selling videocards, they're sellilng well and the trend will continue, what they need to hit in the yugular is to drop prices further.

 

[Wreckage]

Yes it does, today AMD owns 88% of the market where 4 months ago they owned 100%. They lost market share. Not even sure how you could try to argue otherwise.

Yeah it's clear AMD is losing market share. Probably at a very significant rate. AMD failed to capitalize on NVIDIA's delay (mostly due to TSMC) and now are facing their own delays. It's going to be rough waters ahead for AMD.

 

[BenSkywalker]

Sure they entered the DX11 market and gained some of it. That in no way indicates AMD lost one iota of the 100% share of the market they had previously.

I think you need to reword this line of discussion. As you are stating it right now you are absolutely wrong, in no uncertain terms.

As a general example let's say-

July AMD sold 10,000 units and nVidia sold 0
August AMD sold 1,000,000,000 and nVidia sold 10

In that scenario AMD *lost* marketshare. You can easily take the stance they didn't lose any potential sales, that their absolute numbers grew or numerous other angles(which aren't necessarily represented by these charts, but the argument can be made), but when you have a 100% marketshare and then *anyone* else sells *anything* in that market segment you are *always* losing marketshare.

 

[Lonyo]

Yes it does, today AMD owns 88% of the market where 4 months ago they owned 100%. They lost market share. Not even sure how you could try to argue otherwise.

Nobody would try to argue otherwise if they were sane.
But that has absolutely nothing to do with sales. Not a thing.

Well, it has one thing to do with sales, both NV and AMD are now selling DX11 cards. That's the only thing it has to do with sales.
AMD losing marketshare percentage from their 100% is a necessity and it couldn't not happen unless NV failed to release DirectX11 parts.
AMD losing marketshare percentage says nothing about the sales of either companies products though. Not a thing.

 

[GaiaHunter]

Company A sold 100 000 DX 11 cards in 6 months. Company B 0.

Company A market share 100%. Company B 0%.

Next month company A sells 20 000 cards. Company B 5 000.

Company A market share is 96%. Company B is 4%.

Next month company A sells 20 000 cards. Company B sells 5 000.

Market share of company A is 93.3% and company B is 6.7%.

Next month company A sells 15 000 cards. Company B sells 10 000.

Company A market share is 85%. Company B is 15%.

Sure company B is catching up. It still is selling LESS CARDS.

Which company would you rather be?

Of course a different scenario is also possible, but I used this one to show that you can be selling more cards monthly and still be losing market share.

Again, steam survey is really bad to predict monthly sales.

 

[Grooveriding]

I think you need to reword this line of discussion. As you are stating it right now you are absolutely wrong, in no uncertain terms.

As a general example let's say-

July AMD sold 10,000 units and nVidia sold 0
August AMD sold 1,000,000,000 and nVidia sold 10

In that scenario AMD *lost* marketshare. You can easily take the stance they didn't lose any potential sales, that their absolute numbers grew or numerous other angles(which aren't necessarily represented by these charts, but the argument can be made), but when you have a 100% marketshare and then *anyone* else sells *anything* in that market segment you are *always* losing marketshare.

Yes, you are correct. I should of been more anal in my wording. I figured common sense would prevail.

My whole point was that you cannot infer from those numbers that AMD is losing sales, or that the actual quantity of installed cards that made up that 100% share of the DX11 market before nvidia managed to start selling DX11 has gone down.

It quite likely has gone up. Nvidia has had half the time in the DX11 market AMD has had, and they've come up with a pretty paltry 12% due to releasing parts that did not deliver enough performance to be compelling over what AMD has been offering for most buyers, parts that are too hot and loud for most buyers and for just taking too long.

AMD's 6 series starts coming next month, a new level of performance that nvidia won't be able to match.

Laying expectations that somehow nvidia's sales are going on an upward trend with that coming is some bizarre logic.

Nvidia is in trouble and has lost the DX11 market to AMD largely through poor execution of their release schedule. They're behind the eight ball now and getting pushed further back.

 

[bunnyfubbles]

wow has this thread derailed :\

 

[evolucion8]

Yeah it's clear AMD is losing market share. Probably at a very significant rate. AMD failed to capitalize on NVIDIA's delay (mostly due to TSMC) and now are facing their own delays. It's going to be rough waters ahead for AMD.

Yeah, Evergreen was such a failure, :biggrin:

 

[BenSkywalker]

Laying expectations that somehow nvidia's sales are going to on an upward trend with that coming is some bizarre logic.

The DX10 market increased last month overall. Taking that into consideration the 9600, 9800, GT240, GTX260 and GTX280 all saw increases in marketshare. After the 460 went on sale the GTX280 increased its' sales. Way too many people confuse us with John Q Public and man, we aint close

 

[evolucion8]

The DX10 market share from now on will shrink with some variable spikes, nVidia is only producing some low end DX10 cards and most other DX10 cards are out of production and the inventory channel are; or writting them off or selling them for a bag of tacos. DX10 took a long time to match the DX9 marketshare, DX11 is moving much faster thanks to Windows 7.

 

[Wreckage]

The DX10 market increased last month overall. Taking that into consideration the 9600, 9800, GT240, GTX260 and GTX280 all saw increases in marketshare. After the 460 went on sale the GTX280 increased its' sales. Way too many people confuse us with John Q Public and man, we aint close

Which is why NVIDIA has sold more cards than ATI over the last year. If you notice DX11 cards represent 10% of the steam survey. It's only very recently that cards with enough tessellation horsepower and enough games have come out that DX11 is even remotely a useful feature.

 

[Tempered81]

Yes it does, today AMD owns 88% of the market where 4 months ago they owned 100%. They lost market share. Not even sure how you could try to argue otherwise.

if fermi has been selling for march april may june july aug sept (6 months), and evergreen for sept 09 thru sept 2010 (12 months), and both cards sold equally....

their market shares of dx11 would be 33% fermi, 66% evergreen....

however, its a lot more in favor of evergreen at 12% / 88%

 

[Lonyo]

Which is why NVIDIA has sold more cards than ATI over the last year. If you notice DX11 cards represent 10% of the steam survey. It's only very recently that cards with enough tessellation horsepower and enough games have come out that DX11 is even remotely a useful feature.

Please please please please please please please please please please please please please please please please please please please please pleaseplease please please please please please please please please pleaseplease please please please please please please please please pleaseplease please please please please please please please please please please please please please pleaseplease please please please please please please please please please please please please please please please please please please please stop trying to equate Steam marketshare with sales.

 

[tviceman]

This thread has derailed so far off it's topic it needs to be locked.