Discussion Nvidia Blackwell in Q1-2025

[jpiniero]

I wouldn't be so pessimistic about it, in part because NV absolutely wants to keep mem interfaces as narrow as they can, 8GB (and 12GB for 500+$ range) is becoming unpopular with desktop consumers and clamshell isn't that popular with AIBs.

It's about keeping costs down. And if the SMs are physically bigger than Blackwell even with the shrink, you should be thinking they will be cutting SMs instead of increasing on 5/6/7.

I would say no clamshell on the 60 Ti either. So it'd be 12.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Same for AMD, AT3/4 won't use G7 and AT2 with its 192bit interface surely will have neither 12 nor 24GB as the standard config

I think it's highly likely that AT2 is getting 24GB or more.

 

[jpiniero]

Was thinking about this, and if Rubin really ends up being only an improvement over Blackwell because of clocks... would they just be better off just shrinking Blackwell to N3P because the die would be smaller.

 

[branch_suggestion]

I think it's highly likely that AT2 is getting 24GB or more.

18GB is fine, it is the direct N48 replacement.
24GB would require clamshell or a late refresh with 4GB modules, both add a lot to the BOM for minute fringe cases.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

18GB is fine, it is the direct N48 replacement.
24GB would require clamshell or a late refresh with 4GB modules, both add a lot to the BOM for minute fringe cases.

AT2 should have 25% higher compute throughput per clock and 20% higher VRAM memory bandwidth than N48. Assuming RDNA5's clocks and IPC should be higher than RDNA4's, we're looking at a GPU that will be significantly faster than the 9070XT.

18GB is very much not enough for a GPU that is likely to perform well above the 7900XTX.

 

[adroc_thurston]

18GB is very much not enough

It is enough.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

It is enough.

We'll see.

This is a GPU significantly above the PS6 which is probably coming with 30 or 40GB.

 

[adroc_thurston]

This is a GPU significantly above the PS6

Yeah.

which is probably coming with 30 or 40GB.

Remember, this also needs to have enough memory for the CPU to not starve.
Plus it gotta last years upon years given the console cycle is an average ~7yrs long.

 

[branch_suggestion]

AT2 should have 25% higher compute throughput per clock and 20% higher VRAM memory bandwidth than N48. Assuming RDNA5's clocks and IPC should be higher than RDNA4's, we're looking at a GPU that will be significantly faster than the 9070XT.

18GB is very much not enough for a GPU that is likely to perform well above the 7900XTX.

Uhh, but it is.
If the game is hitting limitations at 16GB, let alone 18, you're gonna be at not good framerates anyway.
This is a $600 GPU or thereabouts, 7900XTX last I checked launched for $1k. NV is still giving you 16GB for $1k.

We'll see.

This is a GPU significantly above the PS6 which is probably coming with 30 or 40GB.

Oh god this is why I pray Kepler is right about the compute engine of GFX13, just so MLID needs to say sorry.
PS6 is a whole system, OS and CPU need memory too.

 

[adroc_thurston]

NV is still giving you 16GB for $1k.

Eh, 5080 is a meme.
16GB NV part starts at $749 or whatever's 203 chop retails for.

Oh god this is why I pray Kepler is right about the compute engine of GFX13

wha

 

[branch_suggestion]

Eh, 5080 is a meme.
16GB NV part starts at $749 or whatever's 203 chop retails for.

Fair point, lets see where NV price their first 18GB parts.

wha

https://twitter.com/x/status/1965847416567116274

Potential hilarity in the future.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Fair point, lets see where NV price their first 18GB parts.

oh yeah SUPERs, whenever they crawl outta the woodwork.

Potential hilarity in the future.

i dun get it.

 

[branch_suggestion]

i dun get it.

It is just the whole yes or no WGP maymay.

 

[adroc_thurston]

It is just the whole yes or no WGP maymay.

doctor or engineer WGP?

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Remember, this also needs to have enough memory for the CPU to not starve.

Non-GPU RAM allocation hasn't really moved the needle above 1.5-2GB since the PS4 era. There's little reason to believe this will change.

This is a $600 GPU or thereabouts, 7900XTX last I checked launched for $1k. NV is still giving you 16GB for $1k.

7900XTX was launched in 2022 in a follow up to massive GPU shortages due to cryptos and covid breaking distribution channels.
The 5080 is kind of a meme, as it's been said. Bigger jumps in VRAM on consumer dGPUs have consistently synchronized with new console generations, and AT2 is literally a next-gen console GPU.
Magnus is bound to have either 36 or 48GB GDDR7 so it makes no sense that its dGPU sibling would have half the memory.

 

[adroc_thurston]

There's little reason to believe this will change.

oh but it will.

The 5080 is kind of a meme, as it's been said. Bigger jumps in VRAM on consumer dGPUs have consistently synchronized with new console generations, and AT2 is literally a next-gen console GPU.
Magnus is bound to have either 36 or 48GB GDDR7 so it makes no sense that its dGPU sibling would have half the memory.

The problem with that statement is that consoles are sold at a loss, and dGFX needs Actual Real Margins to feed both the IHV and the AIBs.
So you're getting poverty DRAM amounts anyway.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

oh but it will.

Why? What's coming that makes the CPU suddenly need to move around a lot more memory than it did during the last 2 console generations?

The problem with that statement is that consoles are sold at a loss, and dGFX needs Actual Real Margins to feed both the IHV and the AIBs.
So you're getting poverty DRAM amounts anyway.

I don't think the next gen Xbox will be sold at a loss. It's more likely that Microsoft will try a "Steam Machines" approach and let Asus, Lenovo, MSI, etc. build and sell their consoles for a target spec.

 

[adroc_thurston]

What's coming that makes the CPU suddenly need to move around a lot more memory than it did during the last 2 console generations?

Video games.

I don't think the next gen Xbox will be sold at a loss

Yeah it will be.

It's more likely that Microsoft will try a "Steam Machines" approach and let Asus, Lenovo, MSI, etc. build and sell their consoles for a target spec.

Please stop this cretinism, MS hardware roadmap hasn't changed since 2021.
It's an Xbox. Like, normal Xbox.

It's the handheld that got canned and moved into ecosystem status.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

Video games.

That's what videogame consoles have been running for the last 40 years. It's not a new task that demands for the CPU to handle more RAM.

Yeah it will be.

I don't think it will.

Please stop this cretinism,

No need to go personal.

MS hardware roadmap hasn't changed since 2021.
It's an Xbox. Like, normal Xbox.

I think it has.

Subtract the money spent on studios and Xbox's been bleeding money for 2 generations in a row. This gen they spent >$70B on game devs that have since launched mostly commercial failures, and then the whole company shifted its focus to AI.

Microsoft and Xbox leaders pretty much declared they lost the console wars which is why they're launching all their exclusive games on Playstation. This also means the subsidized console model ceased to make sense for Microsoft as they transition to a multiplatform publisher.

Next-gen xbox is probably a target spec or fully populated PCB for a Windows machine to be assembled by OEMs, not a traditional console sold and distributed by Microsoft. If Microsoft sells this as an Xbox, I don't think it'll be subsidized anyway. It'll be like a compact gaming PC / surface.

 

[adroc_thurston]

I think it has.

It hasn't.

This gen they spent >$70B on game devs that have since launched mostly commercial failures, and then the whole company shifted its focus to AI

They've spent 70B on Call of Duty.
It was worth it.

This also means the subsidized console model ceased to make sense for Microsoft as they transition to a multiplatform publisher.

Yeah it does, otherwise Sony won't need one either since they publish on PC.

Next-gen xbox is probably a target spec or fully populated PCB for a Windows machine to be assembled by OEMs, not a traditional console sold and distributed by Microsoft. If Microsoft sells this as an Xbox, I don't think it'll be subsidized anyway. It'll be like a compact gaming PC / surface.

Please stop projecting your hopes and dreams on someone's hw roadmap.

 

[jpiniero]

Fair point, lets see where NV price their first 18GB parts.

I'll say it'll depend on what the 5 die size ends up being. Maybe whatever the 5070 Super's price is if the die is decently smaller than GB205.

 

[ToTTenTranz]

They've spent 70B on Call of Duty.

No, they didn't. Candy Crush generates $1B annually with 200 million active users. Blizzard's franchises generate close to $2B.
CoD may be the single franchise from the publisher that generated more revenue but it's obviously not worth $70B by itself.

Yeah it does, otherwise Sony won't need one either since they publish on PC.

Sony is probably leaving the subsidized console model as well. The PS5 Pro already ended that trend on their side.
We're probably looking at $700-800 PS6 and $900-1200 Xbox Next.

Please stop projecting your hopes and dreams on someone's hw roadmap.

I'm not hoping for the traditional console model to go away. If anything, my hopes would be on Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft to be competing equally in the home console market with physical media as main distribution for games. Even better: bring Sega back with a RISC-V CPU and PowerVR GPU, and Atari with an Intel SoC.

 

[basix]

Nvidia might go some Processing-In-Memory (PIM) alike road with Feynman?
https://www.semicone.com/article-275.html

Recently, NVIDIA has been reported to be entering the HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) Base Die market, a move that has garnered significant attention within the industry. It is understood that NVIDIA has initiated the design plan for its own HBM Base Die. In the future, regardless of which memory brand's HBM stack product it is paired with, the underlying logic die (Base Die) will adopt NVIDIA's proprietary design solution, with the process node locked at 3nm. NVIDIA is expected to begin trial production in small quantities in the second half of 2027.

 

[adroc_thurston]

We're probably looking at $700-800 PS6 and $900-1200 Xbox Next.

You saw heavily cost-down SoCs for nextgen boxes and went "woah, kilobuck".

No, they didn't.

Yeah they did. It was a CoD acquisition.

I'm not hoping for the traditional console model to go away. If anything, my hopes would be on Nintendo, Sony and Microsoft to be competing equally in the home console market with physical media as main distribution for games. Even better: bring Sega back with a RISC-V CPU and PowerVR GPU, and Atari with an Intel SoC.

adorable pipedreams but the console model ain't changing.

 

[jpiniero]

You saw heavily cost-down SoCs for nextgen boxes and went "woah, kilobuck".

The MS one is probally gonna be over a grand.