NON_POLITICAL China Coronavirus THREAD

[destrekor]

Yeah, it isn't really fair. Tell that to the families of the dead, unemployed and those hospitalized right now. All that misery, but let's be PC and pretend it didn't come from a place with a history of gifting the world with miserable viruses.

I sat here a moment and I just don't have anything really in response to your recent racist, bigoted, and xenophobic remarks.

But you should know zoonotic virus transfer happens everywhere. Happens often actually; quite a few random little viruses people will experience may be new strains that just aren't capable of spreading well and eventually die off. Or they don't, and mutate along the way.
MERS, another coronavirus of recent importance, is one that did not originate in Asia* East Asia, nor did it originate from exotic eating habits. It originated in the middle east, and the zoonotic transfer either occurred directly from camel to man, or indirectly via another host. Thankfully MERS didn't seem to be have "qualities" to spread far, and it didn't use the ace2 receptor like both SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2.

It could come from a pet even, as some coronaviruses can infect dogs and there may be dog-specific strains. This strain appears to even be capable though it appears rarely.

But listen, bashing China is fun and all, but this is just part of the natural result of massive population density. Now China has not helped by permitting such high density wet markets (or not doing enough to crack down on them), but they are not the sole source of such viruses. This one was sneaky due to the typically long lag time in symptoms and large spread of possible symptoms. I don't encourage the conditions in China that led to this but I also don't blame China either. Viruses are viruses.

 

[Muse]

Holy crap why is there still so much air traffic in the states? Why didn't they cancel fights yet? Here in Canada most of the airlines are not operating other than essential flights.



This is how you continue the spread of the virus. That's an insane amount of air traffic. Lot of them are planes coming in too.

It's because we have no leadership. There's nobody at the helm. Trump is clueless. He can't see beyond his juvenile fantasies. Yesterday he was hallucinating about churches full of Easter parishioners! To say he's lost it would be far too kind. He's never had it.

 

[Muse]

There's also a live newswire headline feed that has tipped me off to breaking stories many times.

Is that on the internet? Can you provide the URL?

 

[DrMrLordX]

OK, this was unexpected. My local hospital just furloughed 200 people due to lack of patients.

If it's really a furlough, they can be brought back as they're needed. A lot of folks are avoiding doctors and hospitals out of fear of transmission right now. Which is rational, believe it or not.

I don't want to get political but it will be really interesting to see whether or not this was an honest mistake by China or if this was actually on purpose, or at least, due to a huge act of negligence. I'm open minded to either right now, I just hope that in the end the truth does come out.

The wet market thing has been going on in China for a long time. Not sure anyone could have anticipated that we'd get something like that from bats they've been eating for . . . I guess a long time? It's the coverup that made things worse. The authorities there were alerted to the problem early, and instead of jumping on the problem quickly and containing it, they silenced doctors and tried to sweep it under the rug. Xi's mistakes cost us all.

It's because we have no leadership. There's nobody at the helm.

That's . . . not even true. Cargo has to keep flying. Maybe they could ground some of the ghost flights out there, but we already have a glut of jet fuel building up, so that would make problems even worse. We don't have lots of people traveling by air right now.

 

[Muse]

This is the most PERFECT impression of Trump. This is incredible.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1242879985024741382

Notice, the writing on the hat is backwards, so he was looking in the mirror. Cool stuff! LOL!

 

[Muse]

Most of Europe and US are probably like 2-3 weeks behind Italy. So we'll probably peak in about 2-3 weeks. That's soon in my book.

We're gonna need some micromanaging of this pandemic. Ease up on social distancing some, in some places, while tighten at other times and in other places. Thing is to keep the economy from disintegrating, but keep the curve flat enough where we can deal with the sick. Many parameters, this is gonna play out complexly. Health care workers are gonna come down with this, they'll have to be isolated while they are contagious. Once not contagious, hopefully they will be immune and can reenter the hospitals without fearing getting sick, although they will need to be careful not to infect others, a far less difficult thing than trying not to get sick themselves. The recovered may be able to provide plasma that will help the uber ill. They are trying that out now.

China is evidently trying to ease restrictions, surely they know they have to keep their eyes on what the effects are and they probably won't hesitate to reinstitute restrictions as needed so they don't lose control.

 

[ElFenix]

MERS, another coronavirus of recent importance, is one that did not originate in Asia, nor did it originate from exotic eating habits. It originated in the middle east,

TIL arabia is not in asia.

and dari is wrong about the bubonic plague. doesn't have anything to do with eating bush meat, and may have originated in kyrgistan, then spread into china by traders. H1N1 may have originated on a pig farm in kansas. may have originated in france. may have originated in china. but, hey, what's information when you've got the certainty of ignorance.

 

[FelixDeCat]

Think about all the shit Americans do that horribly impacts the world.

You mean like Barney the Dinosaur? Cant agree more.

Of course Europe got its revenge...

The wet market thing has been going on in China for a long time. Not sure anyone could have anticipated that we'd get something like that from bats they've been eating for . . . I guess a long time? It's the coverup that made things worse. The authorities there were alerted to the problem early, and instead of jumping on the problem quickly and containing it, they silenced doctors and tried to sweep it under the rug. Xi's mistakes cost us all.

A coverup does no one any good. Hopefully Xi acts differently next time. Im trying to keep this non political but when you have leaders who rule for life like Xi and Putin, you get people who think they are omnipotent and can do no wrong because no one is allowed to oppose them at home. Cant exclude Saudi's MBS from this list either.

 

[Muse]

There are several municipalities around here begin to enforce curfews from late evening to early morning.

We don't have a curfew, but they reported that crime is way down since the shelter in place directives went into effect. Hopefully that trend will continue. IMO, hard to predict.

 

[Muse]

I'm starting to wonder if there's a better strategy, albeit very selfish: throw caution to the wind and get yourself infected. If you get a mild form, great, if not, well at least there are still some beds available.

This is true and was mentioned in this thread very early on and I've thought of it often (that's not necessarily being selfish if it helps flatten the curve). They even joked about having an infection party like kids used to have with measles.

It might be getting late for that, especially where I am. Gotta figure average of 5 days to get symptomatic, then probably another 10+ days to where you'd need a bed if you get to that point. So, more than two weeks out and by that time, at least here, the facilities are apt to be overrun, they might even have a hard time finding you a bed, much less a respirator.

Besides that stuff it just sucks being sick. The best thing you can do to flatten the curve is not get sick before we're well on the downside of the curve... or never, if you make it to a vaccine. I know, that's tough to do, and is never something you can count on.

 

[brainhulk]

This is true and was mentioned in this thread very early on and I've thought of it often (that's not necessarily being selfish if it helps flatten the curve). They even joked about having an infection party like kids used to have with measles.

It might be getting late for that, especially where I am. Gotta figure average of 5 days to get symptomatic, then probably another 10+ days to where you'd need a bed if you get to that point. So, more than two weeks out and by that time, at least here, the facilities are apt to be overrun, they might even have a hard time finding you a bed, much less a respirator.

Besides that stuff it just sucks being sick. The best thing you can do to flatten the curve is not get sick before we're well on the downside of the curve... or never, if you make it to a vaccine. I know, that's tough to do, and is never something you can count on.

There are reports of permanent lung disfunction post infection. Plus the possibility of this being seasonal due to mutation makes the thought of live virus inoculation sound very short sighted.

 

[Sonikku]

Most of Europe and US are probably like 2-3 weeks behind Italy. So we'll probably peak in about 2-3 weeks. That's soon in my book.

Not a chance. Italy has taken serious measures. A few states in the US have, but many more have not. More of the Italian public is also taking the warnings seriously. Much of the US has dismissed it as all a hoax to hurt the president or at worst, overblown. YOLO etc. And heaven help us if Trump opens up the country again in three weeks. The US will get hit harder than any country in the world.

 

[brainhulk]

This article is rough...

When You Die of the Coronavirus, You Die Alone

CONTAINING A PANDEMIC MEANS KEEPING VISITORS OUT OF THE ICU MY PATIENTS WILL SUFFER IN SOLITARY CONFINEMENT.BOSTON -- As an I.C.U. doctor I'm used to giving bad news, but I was not prepared for this.I paused outside my patient's room to watch her for a moment. She lay on the bed, tethered to

news.yahoo.com

as we tighten our protocols to protect our patients from the threat of Covid-19, she’s alone. Here in my hospital, as in so many others throughout the country, we’ve banished most visitors. It’s a tough decision that leaves our patients to suffer through their illnesses in a medical version of solitary confinement. And I’m worried for them. Because those of us on the front lines simply don’t have a plan for this.

The isolation is, of course, even more profound for those who are infected with, or are being evaluated for, coronavirus. I took care of one such patient who was intubated when he started coughing up blood on the general medical floor. He was alone in his room, on FaceTime with his daughter, when it started. So that is the last image she has of her father — on a shaky computer screen, blood staining his hospital gown. I offer her updates over the phone, but the truth is that I am not sure when she will be able to see him again.

 

[PlanetJosh]

For those getting unemployment payments you'll be sitting pretty good with that $600 a week. A petty good yearly income too for some of us. I'm not saying it'll go on for a year. but 6 months: maybe,

Btw I realize they chose $600 to make it easier to quickly distribute enough money for unemployment funds. And that it would've taken too long to work with old computer accounting systems in some states. That's from the big daily national briefing, the Minutian guy. Well it sounds like Minutian. Ok Mnuchin.

 

[Muse]

Not a chance. Italy has taken serious measures. A few states in the US have, but many more have not. More of the Italian public is also taking the warnings seriously. Much of the US has dismissed it as all a hoax to hurt the president or at worst, overblown. YOLO etc. And heaven help us if Trump opens up the country again in three weeks. The US will get hit harder than any country in the world.

USA may indeed get hit harder than any other country, and Trump is arguably the biggest reason, the lack of testing can be pinned on him. But although Trump may advocate for opening up the country, local authorities have sway... governors, mayors. So, smarter local authorities will step up, and rightfully ignore Trump's shenanigans. Newsom figures CA shelter-in-place for non-essential activities for 6-8 weeks, of course to be monitored and tweaked as needed, this is so much uncharted territory.

I don't know the figures, but I think Italy is a lot denser than a lot of the USA. Density is pretty key here and the reason NYC is blowing up.

 

[bononos]

Need to ask if ordinary cotton/paper facemasks are useful for avoiding diseases lke covid. Or how much of a difference does wearing a surgical mask make in a public place eg. in a store.

From what I understand, its more to prevent yourself from infecting others through sneezing/coughing because ordinary facemasks aren't capable of filtering things as small as germs.

One article said that surgical masks only provided a low level of protection "a six-fold decrease in the amount of virus exposure" so I'm not sure if that statement was meant to say that even a 6x decrease was close to useless in absolute terms given the number of viruses counted in the study. Could someone more knowledgeable explain this odd statement?

Our face mask future: Do they really help beat flu, coronavirus and pollution?

Huge numbers of people are wearing face masks – in Japan and South Korea there have been reports of stores selling out. But experts are divided on how effective they are

www.theguardian.com

 

[CZroe]

Is that on the internet? Can you provide the URL?

Yes. We're talking about the other aspects of the real-time livestream. I've linked it many times:

 

[CZroe]

The wet market thing has been going on in China for a long time. Not sure anyone could have anticipated that we'd get something like that from bats they've been eating for . . . I guess a long time?

Nah. We've known for a long time. Bats have very different immune systems from other mammals due to the metabolism required for flight. They also have the other extreme (hibernation). Many viruses can't tolerate a fever of a few degrees F from normal so a virus has to be extremely hardy to survive a bat's typical day, plus the bat has to bypass a lot of the immune responses mammals typically have in response to metabolizing that much at once (flood of free radicals).

People have also been raising the alarms over Chinese wet markets for decades now. Don't forget SARS also came from bats in China too.

 

[CZroe]

USA may indeed get hit harder than any other country, and Trump is arguably the biggest reason, the lack of testing can be pinned on him. But although Trump may advocate for opening up the country, local authorities have sway... governors, mayors. So, smarter local authorities will step up, and rightfully ignore Trump's shenanigans. Newsom figures CA shelter-in-place for non-essential activities for 6-8 weeks, of course to be monitored and tweaked as needed, this is so much uncharted territory.

I don't know the figures, but I think Italy is a lot denser than a lot of the USA. Density is pretty key here and the reason NYC is blowing up.

No, the lack of testing was because of the CDC rejecting the WHO test in lieu of their own, bungling their own (first run didn't work), refusing tests offered to us from other countries, blocking states from doing their own testing, forcing all tests to go through the CDC (huge lag time), and banning at-home self-testing. It's a bureaucracy being a bureaucracy and Trump didn't make any of those decisions.

Things are finally improving but that first batch of bad tests really set us back, especially with all the other red tape.

 

[Captante]

I read an article yesterday that the ACA exchanges may open up soon for the newly unemployed. I work for one of the largest health insurers in the country, and there are murmers about this in executive leadership. This would be an extraordenary move, as health insurers use the non-open enrollment time to build new projects internally, etc. Everything we do is in preparation of the next open enrollment. Nine states with their own exchanges have already opened up.

Hard to see this doing much good unless the insurance is also free of charge ... tough to pay when out of work.

 

[jpiniero]

No, the lack of testing was because of the CDC rejecting the WHO test in lieu of their own, bungling their own (first run didn't work), refusing tests offered to us from other countries, blocking states from doing their own testing, forcing all tests to go through the CDC (huge lag time), and banning at-home self-testing. It's a bureaucracy being a bureaucracy and Trump didn't make any of those decisions.

Things are finally improving but that first batch of bad tests really set us back, especially with all the other red tape.

I still don't see how testing helps people who are already sick. There's no specific treatment at this point. Kind of need to test people before they start showing symptoms.

 

[Captante]

and dari is wrong

Well there's a shock!

 

[CZroe]

Hmm...

Think we'll ever start identifying the immune with bracelets before there is a vaccine? You know: like the one the immune character had in the movie Contagion which they also gave to everyone getting the MEV-1 vaccine.

At what point would it even help to let these people out of quarantine? Not like they can begin to restart everything on their own. Even if 50% of us have the bracelet, letting them out can bring the virus back to others... albeit, slowly and more manageable.

Another issue would be trust. Can we trust that very few of these people are going to loot and riot and that the few others will be able/willing to stop them?

Edit: Also, letting too few people out too early can help spread a new/mutated strain of the virus to threaten everyone. It could just start the whole thing over.

 

[Captante]

the bracelet

I suggest a forehead tattoo.

 

[CZroe]

I still don't see how testing helps people who are already sick. There's no specific treatment at this point. Kind of need to test people before they start showing symptoms.

That's the situation we are in now because of the lack of tests. Without mass testing weeks earlier we couldn't do contact tracing or tell who was infected before they were sick to know that we needed to shut down even earlier than we did. It's way too little, way too late, even if testing is getting better. We can't put the genie back in the bottle.

What we can still do with more tests is start randomized testing to see how prevalent the virus really is and predict how long this is going to be and how much worse it will get. We can also determine who is truly recovered and who isn't. What we really need now is an antigen test to see who has ever been infected. We can start identifying the immune and putting them where they need to be.

Edit: Also, it helps to routinely blind-test caregivers at nursing homes, medical professionals, etc once there are enough kits to do so (obvious reasons).