New Zogby battleground polls

[ntdz]

Why is it bad for Kerry?

Because Bush leads in Florida and Ohio

Flame on, discredit it like mad liberals. Just remember...it's your favorite poll Zogby!

 

[Infohawk]

Could you maybe link the polls? Or could you not control your urge to bleat here as soon as possible?

 

[umbrella39]

Originally posted by: ntdz
Why is it bad for Kerry?

Because Bush leads in Florida and Ohio

Flame on, discredit it like mad liberals. Just remember...it's your favorite poll Zogby!

Or even perhaps drop that tired old bullsh!t liberals love zogby line. You are becoming more trollish as the election nears. I attribute that to fear.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Yeah seriously, link? You do realize these polls have been going up and down by a few pts. each day?

Also, all Kerry needs to do is to keep this race close till election day, you need to remember the polls don't include a lot of young and first time voters nor people who only have cell phones. There is a large portion of America that is just not counted in the polls, which is more pro-Kerry than pro-Bush. If we get a large voter turnout this year, Kerry should squeeze by.

I expect Kerry to carry Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Bush should take Florida though.

 

[Darkhawk28]

Originally posted by: Sudheer Anne
Yeah seriously, link? You do realize these polls have been going up and down by a few pts. each day?

Also, all Kerry needs to do is to keep this race close till election day, you need to remember the polls don't include a lot of young and first time voters nor people who only have cell phones. There is a large portion of America that is just not counted in the polls, which is more pro-Kerry than pro-Bush. If we get a large voter turnout this year, Kerry should squeeze by.

I expect Kerry to carry Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Bush should take Florida though.

There will be a flood of new voters that will purge Washington of the scum that resides in the Oval Office.

 

[Todd33]

You mean the lead that is in the margin of error? You mean the Likely voter poll, which is notoriously bad? Ya, you should celebrate.

 

[shiner]

Poles are worthless....I mean gimme a break...the built their submarine with a screen door in it.....jeez!!!

Oh wait......wrong king of poll? Eh....either way they are worthless.

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: Todd33
You mean the lead that is in the margin of error? You mean the Likely voter poll, which is notoriously bad? Ya, you should celebrate.

took 4 posts, but someone finally tried to discredit the poll showing kerry losing

 

[Infohawk]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: Todd33
You mean the lead that is in the margin of error? You mean the Likely voter poll, which is notoriously bad? Ya, you should celebrate.

took 4 posts, but someone finally tried to discredit the poll showing kerry losing

When are you linking the actual polls?

 

[Todd33]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: Todd33
You mean the lead that is in the margin of error? You mean the Likely voter poll, which is notoriously bad? Ya, you should celebrate.

took 4 posts, but someone finally tried to discredit the poll showing kerry losing

So if I show you a poll that is 47-45 +/-4 Kerry-Bush you will say Kerry is winning? You need a course of statistics and polling. Some likely voters (LV) national polls show Bush up 8%, do you believe that? LV polls throw away many registered voters, you have to be careful how you determine who will vote and who won't otherwise you might be surprised Nov 2nd.

Too many polls show a tie, many show Kerry winning in swing states (electoral-vote.com), but I won't count my chickens too soon. I'd advise you to control yourself until Nov 3rd, else you might look even dumber.

 

[Engineer]

Nutz is correct that Zogby has Florida and Ohio in Bushes corner today...but well within the margin of error of the poll. I noticed that today on Electoral-vote.com. However, EV.com is down (not sure why..maybe Because Kerry was leading 291 to 22X for Bush today! )...

There were 41 new polls today on EV.com. Kerry had enough support to conclude (based on latest poll) 291 Electoral votes.

Also noted that undeciideds tend to vote 2 to 1 for the challenger. This is based on quite a few election cycles. Can't link until EV.com comes back up!

else you might look even dumber

I'm not sure that's possible!

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: Engineer
Nutz is correct that Zogby has Florida and Ohio in Bushes corner today...but well within the margin of error of the poll. I noticed that today on Electoral-vote.com. However, EV.com is down (not sure why..maybe Because Kerry was leading 291 to 22X for Bush today! )...

There were 41 new polls today on EV.com. Kerry had enough support to conclude (based on latest poll) 291 Electoral votes.

Also noted that undeciideds tend to vote 2 to 1 for the challenger. This is based on quite a few election cycles. Can't link until EV.com comes back up!

else you might look even dumber

I'm not sure that's possible!

actually, in the latest opinion dynamics poll Bush is up 2 to 1 on Kerry with independents. In a time of WAR, undecideds will most likely side w/ the incumbent.

 

[Darkhawk28]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: Engineer
Nutz is correct that Zogby has Florida and Ohio in Bushes corner today...but well within the margin of error of the poll. I noticed that today on Electoral-vote.com. However, EV.com is down (not sure why..maybe Because Kerry was leading 291 to 22X for Bush today! )...

There were 41 new polls today on EV.com. Kerry had enough support to conclude (based on latest poll) 291 Electoral votes.

Also noted that undeciideds tend to vote 2 to 1 for the challenger. This is based on quite a few election cycles. Can't link until EV.com comes back up!

else you might look even dumber

I'm not sure that's possible!

actually, in the latest opinion dynamics poll Bush is up 2 to 1 on Kerry with independents. In a time of WAR, undecideds will most likely side w/ the incumbent.

LINK??

 

[Todd33]

Lots of talk, no proof, no links.

 

[Darkhawk28]

Originally posted by: Todd33
Lots of talk, no proof, no links.

Opinion Dynamics is FoxNews.... end of thread.

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: Darkhawk28

Originally posted by: Todd33
Lots of talk, no proof, no links.

Opinion Dynamics is FoxNews.... end of thread.

so what? You think foxnews pays them to skew their polls in favor of bush? Gimme a break... Anything that doesnt show Kerry winning MUST BE WRONG. EVERY SINGLE POLL IS WRONG FOLKS, IT DOESNT SHOW KERRY WINNING. I'll remember these posts IF there is a poll that shows Kerry ahead.

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: Todd33
Lots of talk, no proof, no links.

you can't link to something that is premium members only...I'm not gonna pay for some stupid zogby poll. I read it on electoral-vote.com, which doesn't lie about their polls especially considering it's run by a democrat.

 

[Engineer]

EV.com...all Ohio polls

(Please note that Kerry is ahead in 3 of the 5 polls that you youself were touting so highly on this board recently)


EV.com - all Florida polls

(Please note that Kerry is ahead in 3 out of 7 polls that you yourself were touting so highly on this board recently).



From EV.com

Wow! 41 new polls today. Zogby has released new polls conducted in the battleground states Oct. 13-18 and there is good news and bad news for each candidate. For Bush, the good news is that he is now leading in seven of the 16 battleground states (Arkansas, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia), his best showing ever in the Zogby poll. The bad news is that all of these leads are within the margin of error, so they are statistical ties. For Kerry, the good news is that his leads in Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington are all outside the margin of error, which ranges from 2% to 4%.

But there are other polls today as well. A new poll from the University of Cincinnati shows Kerry ahead in Ohio, 48% to 46%. Rasmussen's tracking poll shows Bush and Kerry tied at 47% each in Ohio, the first time Bush has not led there for weeks. ABC News says its Kerry 50%, Bush 47%, but Fox News says it is the other way: Kerry 45% and Bush 47%. On the other hand, Survey USA has Kerry ahead 49% to 47%. All in all, Ohio is a complete tossup at the moment; it could go either way. My rule is still: most recent poll (based on the middle date) wins, with ties resolved in favor of the shortest poll. If two or more polls with the same dates are most recent, they are averaged. Currently, The Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll is the most recent by 0.5 day, so it is being used today. The complete list of polls is given at the Polling data link to the right of the map.

Here is the rationale. Number 1 is easy. A lot of people have made up their minds. There is little chance they will switch now. Number 2 is based on the fact that although Nader got 2.7% in 2000, many Naderites (Naderonians?) have been wearing goat-hair shirts and engaging in self flagelation since them for helping to elect Bush. Nader will surely get fewer votes this time. I have guessed at 1% based on today's Zogby polls in which he is averaging 0.5% in 16 battleground states. Number 3 is based on the fact that the minor candidates got 1.01% in 2000.

Number 4 is the hardest, but there is some hard data on how the undecideds break. Nick Panagakis analyzed 155 elections, specifically looking at polls taking two weeks before an election. In 127 cases, the challenger got most of the undecided vote. In 9 cases the undecided vote was split equally, and in 19 cases most went to the incumbent.

Panagakis' study was done in 1989, but it has been updated recently by Chris Bowers. He studied polls and elections from 1976 to 2002 and examined the differences between the final polls and the actual vote. On the average, the undecideds went for the challenger 2:1. This is the figure used in the model. The consequence of this historical fact is that in states where Kerry is tied now or even 1% behind, he will probably win. The predicted map is at www.electoral-vote.com/pred. This is a stable page, which will appear on the menu under the map as "Predicted final results", and can be bookmarked. It will be updated daily and old ones will be archived. The old-style linear regression predicted map is also reachable from this page. I think this new predicted map is much more solid than the old predicted map because it is based on a large amount of current and historical data.

 

[arsbanned]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: Engineer
Nutz is correct that Zogby has Florida and Ohio in Bushes corner today...but well within the margin of error of the poll. I noticed that today on Electoral-vote.com. However, EV.com is down (not sure why..maybe Because Kerry was leading 291 to 22X for Bush today! )...

There were 41 new polls today on EV.com. Kerry had enough support to conclude (based on latest poll) 291 Electoral votes.

Also noted that undeciideds tend to vote 2 to 1 for the challenger. This is based on quite a few election cycles. Can't link until EV.com comes back up!

else you might look even dumber

I'm not sure that's possible!

actually, in the latest opinion dynamics poll Bush is up 2 to 1 on Kerry with independents. In a time of WAR, undecideds will most likely side w/ the incumbent.

At least you're finally admitting why Bush started this war. It still may backfire on him though. Don't open the champaign yet.

 

[BaliBabyDoc]

Originally posted by: shinerburke
Poles are worthless....I mean gimme a break...the built their submarine with a screen door in it.....jeez!!!

Oh wait......wrong king of poll? Eh....either way they are worthless.

Nice . . . very nice . . . but how dare you disparage Poland . . . at least you didn't forget them.

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: Engineer
EV.com...all Ohio polls

(Please note that Kerry is ahead in 3 of the 5 polls that you youself were touting so highly on this board recently)


EV.com - all Florida polls

(Please note that Kerry is ahead in 3 out of 7 polls that you yourself were touting so highly on this board recently).



From EV.com

Wow! 41 new polls today. Zogby has released new polls conducted in the battleground states Oct. 13-18 and there is good news and bad news for each candidate. For Bush, the good news is that he is now leading in seven of the 16 battleground states (Arkansas, Florida, Nevada, Ohio, Tennessee, and West Virginia), his best showing ever in the Zogby poll. The bad news is that all of these leads are within the margin of error, so they are statistical ties. For Kerry, the good news is that his leads in Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, Oregon, Pennsylvania, and Washington are all outside the margin of error, which ranges from 2% to 4%.

But there are other polls today as well. A new poll from the University of Cincinnati shows Kerry ahead in Ohio, 48% to 46%. Rasmussen's tracking poll shows Bush and Kerry tied at 47% each in Ohio, the first time Bush has not led there for weeks. ABC News says its Kerry 50%, Bush 47%, but Fox News says it is the other way: Kerry 45% and Bush 47%. On the other hand, Survey USA has Kerry ahead 49% to 47%. All in all, Ohio is a complete tossup at the moment; it could go either way. My rule is still: most recent poll (based on the middle date) wins, with ties resolved in favor of the shortest poll. If two or more polls with the same dates are most recent, they are averaged. Currently, The Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll is the most recent by 0.5 day, so it is being used today. The complete list of polls is given at the Polling data link to the right of the map.

Here is the rationale. Number 1 is easy. A lot of people have made up their minds. There is little chance they will switch now. Number 2 is based on the fact that although Nader got 2.7% in 2000, many Naderites (Naderonians?) have been wearing goat-hair shirts and engaging in self flagelation since them for helping to elect Bush. Nader will surely get fewer votes this time. I have guessed at 1% based on today's Zogby polls in which he is averaging 0.5% in 16 battleground states. Number 3 is based on the fact that the minor candidates got 1.01% in 2000.

Number 4 is the hardest, but there is some hard data on how the undecideds break. Nick Panagakis analyzed 155 elections, specifically looking at polls taking two weeks before an election. In 127 cases, the challenger got most of the undecided vote. In 9 cases the undecided vote was split equally, and in 19 cases most went to the incumbent.

Panagakis' study was done in 1989, but it has been updated recently by Chris Bowers. He studied polls and elections from 1976 to 2002 and examined the differences between the final polls and the actual vote. On the average, the undecideds went for the challenger 2:1. This is the figure used in the model. The consequence of this historical fact is that in states where Kerry is tied now or even 1% behind, he will probably win. The predicted map is at www.electoral-vote.com/pred. This is a stable page, which will appear on the menu under the map as "Predicted final results", and can be bookmarked. It will be updated daily and old ones will be archived. The old-style linear regression predicted map is also reachable from this page. I think this new predicted map is much more solid than the old predicted map because it is based on a large amount of current and historical data.

i dont tout any poll. I don't think any of them are truely accurate, least of all zogby. And, in a time of war, undecideds tend to side w/ the incumbent.

 

[Todd33]

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: Todd33
Lots of talk, no proof, no links.

you can't link to something that is premium members only...I'm not gonna pay for some stupid zogby poll. I read it on electoral-vote.com, which doesn't lie about their polls especially considering it's run by a democrat.

Since you have such faith in snap shop polls within the margin of error, you agree Kerry has won with 291 EC votes according to http://www.electoral-vote.com? I'm so glad you agree Bush has lost aready.

Oh wait, you only like to boast about polls that you agree with? Clown.

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: Todd33

Originally posted by: ntdz

Originally posted by: Todd33
Lots of talk, no proof, no links.

you can't link to something that is premium members only...I'm not gonna pay for some stupid zogby poll. I read it on electoral-vote.com, which doesn't lie about their polls especially considering it's run by a democrat.

Since you have such faith in snap shop polls within the margin of error, you agree Kerry has won with 291 EC votes according to http://www.electoral-vote.com? I'm so glad you agree Bush has lost aready.

Oh wait, you only like to boast about polls that you agree with? Clown.

wtf are you talking about. Find ONE post of me calling one poll better than the other. I'll post the electoral-vote.com scoreboard tomorrow, after Flordia goes back to Bush where it should be, and will be on Nov 2nd. Bush will be up then, Clown.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: ntdz
i dont tout any poll. I don't think any of them are truely accurate, least of all zogby. And, in a time of war, undecideds tend to side w/ the incumbent.

Do you have any sort of evidence or are you simply hoping?

 

[Darkhawk28]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: ntdz
i dont tout any poll. I don't think any of them are truely accurate, least of all zogby. And, in a time of war, undecideds tend to side w/ the incumbent.

Do you have any sort of evidence or are you simply hoping?

If this was a just war, I'd have to agree with ntdz, surprisingly enough. But it wasn't, by any stretch of the imagination, so therefore that argument is null and void.