New Zogby battleground polls

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Todd33

Todd33

Diamond Member
Oct 16, 2003
7,842
2
81
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: ntdz
i dont tout any poll. I don't think any of them are truely accurate, least of all zogby. And, in a time of war, undecideds tend to side w/ the incumbent.
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Do you have any sort of evidence or are you simply hoping?
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He has his G.I. Joe figures bet on it, but no source.

Every single reference to how undecided and independent voters vote has been for the challenger. But I'd like to see his link, unless Hannity didn't provide it when he was making stuff up.
 
Engineer

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Originally posted by: Todd33
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: ntdz
i dont tout any poll. I don't think any of them are truely accurate, least of all zogby. And, in a time of war, undecideds tend to side w/ the incumbent.
Click to expand...

Do you have any sort of evidence or are you simply hoping?
Click to expand...

He has his G.I. Joe figures bet on it, but no source.

Every single reference to how undecided and independent voters vote has been for the challenger. But I'd like to see his link, unless Hannity didn't provide it when he was making stuff up.
Click to expand...

Maybe he should visit

www.factcheck.com...just like Cheney suggests!?!?

eh? ;)
 
N

ntdz

Diamond Member
Aug 5, 2004
6,989
0
0
Originally posted by: Todd33
Originally posted by: tallest1
This thread reminds me of the ones Riporin used to make
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You assume they are different people. ;)
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i can assure you we are different people, i dont know the guy.

Edit: But from what I've seen/heard about him, he's a smart guy ;)
 
I

Infohawk

Lifer
Jan 12, 2002
17,844
1
0
Originally posted by: ntdz

Edit: But from what I've seen/heard about him, he's a smart guy ;)
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LOL you were so close to having me believing you! Actually ntdz strikes me as slightly more reasonable then the other one. ;) There is definitely an attack of the clones going on here though. Whether ntdz is one of them I don't know...
 
F

fjord

Senior member
Feb 18, 2004
667
0
0
Just the fact that Ohio is still in play is a clear indication Bush is in serious trouble.
 
Perknose

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
46,894
10,720
147
Originally posted by: shinerburke
Poles are worthless....I mean gimme a break...they built their submarine with a screen door in it.....jeez!!!

Oh wait......wrong king of poll? Eh....either way they are worthless.
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Ahhh, the famous Polish sub that sank with all hands on board, and is now just like a used condom -- full of useless seamen.

 
C

chess9

Elite member
Apr 15, 2000
7,748
0
0
fjord:

Now that IS deep. You are very perceptive. I'm from Ohio and I don't think I remember EVER meeting a Democrat. :) (My father was big supporter of the Republican Party in Ohio and had a lot of right wing friends.) Yeah, this is a paradigm shift for Ohio voters. They are almost all Lou Dobbs fans now. :)

-Robert
 
C

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
Election Model Projections
If the election were held today, then based on recent state polling data entered into the Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation model, John Kerry would have a 96% probability of winning an electoral vote majority of 312-226. The model projects that he will win 51.39% of the weighted national vote.

Based on 18 recent national polls entered into the National Average Model, there is a 97% probability that Kerry would win a popular vote majority of 50.72%.

Both projections assume that Kerry will win 60% of the undecided voters. Historically, undecided voters have broken 2-1 for the challenger.
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N

ntdz

Diamond Member
Aug 5, 2004
6,989
0
0
haha, that website is great. They leave out all the polls with Bush winning! They somehow have the average of the last 9 polls with Kerry winning, even though he hasnt led in ANY of them! The fact of the matter is that Bush is even up in Ohio and Flordia with Zogby...
 
S

slyedog

Senior member
Jan 12, 2001
934
0
0
zogby....... that is the only poll that the lib's trusted after the demo convention.
 
C

conjur

No Lifer
Jun 7, 2001
58,686
3
0
Originally posted by: ntdz
haha, that website is great. They leave out all the polls with Bush winning! They somehow have the average of the last 9 polls with Kerry winning, even though he hasnt led in ANY of them! The fact of the matter is that Bush is even up in Ohio and Flordia with Zogby...
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Uh, no they don't. They include FOX, CNN, ABC. Bush is ahead in those.
 
Michael

Michael

Elite member
Nov 19, 1999
5,435
234
106
ntdz - From what I can see from different polls (and I don't really trust them), Bush's performance in the debates wasted the lead he had built and now the polls are giving an edge to Kerry. No one could accuse me of being biased against Bush, that is simply the facts from the numbers today.

It will be close in many, many states and it will be the tactical get out the vote that will make a difference.

I don't buy the reasoning that 2-1 undecides go to the challenger - and there are not too many undecides left.

I thought that Gore was an idiot in 2000 and lost an election he never should have. Bush is facing the pressure he really should be as a result of the decisions and actions he has taken. Although I think Kerry and the Democrats will be a lot worse, Bush has not been a conservative.

Michael
 
A

Aimster

Lifer
Jan 5, 2003
16,129
2
0
Undeciders would during a time of war go with the current president. However, this was a pointless war. Care to argue with me? Iran their neighbor is known to have chemical weapons + they are building a nuclear weapon. They have missles able to reach Europe now. We went after Iraq who had nothing. Even with the intelligence, why Iraq over Iran?... this is not a war that people are so willing to give their life for. No weapons were found. Lots of undeciders want Bush out.
 
E

element

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
4,635
0
0
President Bush and Democratic rival Senator John Kerry remain tied for a third day as the race for the White House heads into its final two weeks, with each candidate garnering 46% of the vote, according to a new Reuters/Zogby daily tracking poll. The telephone poll of 1213 likely voters was conducted from Sunday through Tuesday (October 17-19, 2004). The margin of error is +/- 2.9 percentage points
 
C

CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
1
81
Opinion polls are like lampposts for drunks - they provide support more than illumination.

(paraphrased from some guy whose name escapes me)
 
O

OneOfTheseDays

Diamond Member
Jan 15, 2000
7,052
0
0
What many people fail to realize is that even when Gore was behind Bush by a couple percentage points in the polls before the election, yet he still won the popular vote. Expect the same situation with Kerry, only I expect an even bigger boost due to the large turnout. Bush needs a 4-5 pt. lead to squeeze by and win, otherwise if they are a tie going in Kerry has the advantage. Large turnout = Kerry win at this point.
 
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