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NE & Tristate area, you ready for the 'historic' big storm Mon-Tuesday?

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time to start digging out my car :\

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When a forecast is so sensitive to small changes (eastern Long Island, not far away, received 30-plus inches), it is imperative to loudly convey the reality that small changes could have profound effects on what actually happens.

Unfortunately, the hype surrounding the historic possibility drowned out the very real scenario that the storm could underwhelm.
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Some NWS offices, including New York and Philadelphia, have begun to issue maps showing various snowfall scenarios – including minimum, maximum and most likely. This is an important step forward, but these pages are difficult to find on their Web sites, and this information is not included in public forecasts.

Unfortunately, the presentation and delivery of the National Weather Service forecasts has not evolved in decades. The primary forecasts issued to the public give one answer, when in important situations, many answers are possible.
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...y-was-so-bad-and-what-should-be-done/?hpid=z3
 
loki's quote nailed it.

"Unfortunately, the hype surrounding the historic possibility drowned out the very real scenario that the storm could underwhelm."

Whether it be hyped up by media or the horde, that's basically it in a nut shell
 
Regs said:
loki's quote nailed it.

"Unfortunately, the hype surrounding the historic possibility drowned out the very real scenario that the storm could underwhelm."

Whether it be hyped up by media or the horde, that's basically it in a nut shell
Click to expand...

I feel it was accurately portrayed on the national scale.

When anyone focused on NYC, as if only NYC could have a historic storm but everyone else... eh, who cares ... they should have reported how close to the boundary they were. As it is, look how parts of Long Island got dumped on, yet NYC as a whole really got nothing.
The storm tracked maybe less than 50 miles east, while it has been reported to be over 1000 miles wide (I previously called it a 500 mile wide storm). A storm that is completely changing as it organizes or develops, and is moving at any rate of speed, is likely to not hit a predicted target 100% exactly. The NYC/NJ region was the only one to basically have the prediction fail to materialize correctly - I'd say it wasn't overly hyped as a storm, but those who focused on NYC overhyped it. And that's not the fault of meteorologists all over, that's the fault of media and meteorologists in NYC.
As the NWS said, they could have relayed more of the uncertainty, but I say, that would have not changed a thing. It was always "a potentially historic storm" for NYC, simply because of the possibility, and that's what the media ran with.

In any case, for any storm, I'll follow the national folks like weather channel, the National Weather Service, and others to see the big trends, but I'll count on a particular local crew to report how it will happen here.
 
Regs said:
loki's quote nailed it.

"Unfortunately, the hype surrounding the historic possibility drowned out the very real scenario that the storm could underwhelm."

Whether it be hyped up by media or the horde, that's basically it in a nut shell
Click to expand...

Expect the worst, hope for the best.

Isn't that how it works in meteorology?
 
Regs said:
"Unfortunately, the hype surrounding the historic possibility drowned out the very real scenario that the storm could underwhelm."
Click to expand...

The storm didn't underwhelm, it just "whelmed" a slightly different area. The storm did exactly what is was predicted to do 50-60 miles further east than the computer model. This is still a massive storm, it just happened to spare NYC which is where most of the people in the tri-state area get their forecasts from. If it had missed 50-60 miles west instead of east NYC would be buried in 3 feet of snow and the forecasters would be getting beat up because it was worse than expected and the warnings were not dire enough.
 
Yep, as I expected. Over-hyped. Much less snow in NYC and NJ than expected. Snow estimates in New England were pretty close, but that's not really unexpected. Power outages are far less than expected, Some seawall and flooding damages on Boston's south shore. No problems on Plum Island. My town got just a bit over 2 feet so far and the storm should be winding down soon.

Overall, slightly more inconvenient than an average snow storm. My biggest problem was the extra work getting the 22" snow blower to cut through the 36" snow drifts.

2-3 feet of snow is a lot to deal with, but this is an area that deals with snow on a regular basis. CNN reported yesterday that we were "preparing for the worse." My worse case scenario prep was making sure my phone and flashlights were charged, and stopping at the supermarket Monday afternoon to pick up stuff for Tuesday's lunch since I would be working from home. No snowpocalypse here.

I could see this being something big and scary in Georgia, or other places that rarely get snow, but the North East? Come on....
 
Regs said:
loki's quote nailed it.

"Unfortunately, the hype surrounding the historic possibility drowned out the very real scenario that the storm could underwhelm."

Whether it be hyped up by media or the horde, that's basically it in a nut shell
Click to expand...
Or anything from the scientific community:

- Don't warn enough: "You didn't say a word about this!"
Bonus: This also happens if warning about something that's going to happen years or decades from now.

- Warn overcautiously: "Screw you, I'm never listening to anything you say again."

- Warn just exactly enough: Science is done, we know everything.

- Warn a lot about something that's going to take a long time to happen.
 
For states like NH, I feel like it's not that unusual to get a storm like this? I mean it's just more work to clear it out. Not much of an Apocalypse.
 
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