Easy, the team with the best chance doesn't always get the top pick, hence the word "lottery". Doesn't mean it's fixed if they do get it though.
Anyway spanky, first you cite them having the most chances as the reason why they got him and then when presented with the fact that the team with the most chances virtually never gets the first pick you dismiss the fact. Which one is it?
It can't be fixed. If it was NY or Golden State would have gotten the #1 pick and Yao Ming last year, not the Rockets.
The best I was able to find was this from espn.com
http://sports.espn.go.com/nbadraft/d03/story?id=1557949
I'd heard the stat I mentioned several times on sportscenter though so I assume it to be legit. Google it and you might find the proof you're after. I'm on 56k connected at 28.8 so I tire of searching for things quickly as I'm sure you can understand
If "The Logo" got the pick, I might think it was fixed. If NY got the pick, I'd wonder about it as well. If Houston won two years in a row I'd wonder what the hell they would gain in making Houston into a franchise...
BUT the Cavalier's got the pick. They were tied with the best chance and got it... As for why the worst team doesn't always win, they have a 22.5% chance of winning, which means they hav a 77.5% chance of losing. I don't want to break out the statistics book, but I think that 3 teams winning the number 1 pick in the course of 15 or so years is well within probability.
And Memphis gives up its number one pick because of a trade involving Otis Thorpe 6 years ago I think...
BUT the Cavalier's got the pick. They were tied with the best chance and got it... As for why the worst team doesn't always win, they have a 22.5% chance of winning, which means they hav a 77.5% chance of losing. I don't want to break out the statistics book, but I think that 3 teams winning the number 1 pick in the course of 15 or so years is well within probability.
And Memphis gives up its number one pick because of a trade involving Otis Thorpe 6 years ago I think...
Right on both counts. The worst team has a 22.5 % chance and it did start in 85. So someone who's better at math than me needs to figure the odds. 18 years with a 22.5% chance of probability and it's only happened three times. So what's that work out to?
Suspense - you wouldn't have any buildup of going through who didn't get the pick if you showed it. Every team has a representative who observes the drawing, as well as an independent auditor observing the process.
Since each year is independant 18x.225=4 times. This is of course barring any trade deals that ever went down, and I don't have that info. In any case, its not fixed statistically.
Suspense? You might be in the minority or something but nobody I've ever talked to really gives a rats ass about the lotery. If this was designed to make it interesting it's failed miserably. Besides, how would it be any less suspensful if we got to watch it? In reality there would be more suspense because we'd get to see the picks as they were drawn instead of seeing it all at once on the news/net/radio/etc.
Originally posted by: flxnimprtmscl
Originally posted by: MistaTastyCakes
Yep, you figured out a huge conspiracy here that nobody has ever found before. Congrats.
In addition.. "oh god. shut up."
What's ironic is these people who think there's no such thing as a conspiracy are as stupid as the conspiracy theorists they bash. The just take it to the other end of the spectrum. Also in case it went over your head the nature of a conspiracy is secretive. Therefore amazingly enough people don't always find out about all conspiracies. Absence of proof is not proof of absence. Just because you don't know about it doesn't mean it isn't there.
Also I'd like to see someone give one reason for why it shouldn't be shown. If there's nothing to hide why be secretive about it?
maybe they summon a beast that resembles a giant basketball, the basketball then decides the fate of every team for the next season. Maybe thats what they're hiding
dude its basketball, quit taking it so seriously
Deeko
Lifer
- Jun 16, 2000
- 30,213
- 12
- 81
Originally posted by: joe678
u should be the last person telling ppl to shut up...
Don't you fvcking tell me what I should be doing. You're the fvcking moron who doesnt know jack sh!t and is probaly just pissy that his team didn't win 1st pick. Go cry to someone that gives a damn.
I apologize for not reading every reply, but those of you calling for a conspiricy theory are a bunch of idiots...
Cleveland is one of the smallest markets in the league...the NBA as a whole would do much better financially if LeBron had gone to New York, who was in the lottery, Chicago, who was in the lottery, LA (Clippers), who are always in the lottery, or Miami. So what that he is from Northeast Ohio, that is your evidence of a fix? Please.
The reason the balls coming out is not televised is simple...it takes about 5 minutes to complete the process, and the first overall pick comes out first...how are you going to get advertisers to pay for their commercials to be shown after the first minute of the show when the #1 pick is already revealed? By doing that process behind closed doors (with 5+ members of the media, who aren't "highly scrutinized, but kept from having a computer, cell phone, camera, or tape recorder, so the end result isn't leaked to anyone) they can keep the TV show 30 minutes long and make some $$ by selling commercials.
Those of us here in Cleveland are quite happy! Sellouts, nationally televised games, new uniforms/logo next year....Can't wait!
Cleveland is one of the smallest markets in the league...the NBA as a whole would do much better financially if LeBron had gone to New York, who was in the lottery, Chicago, who was in the lottery, LA (Clippers), who are always in the lottery, or Miami. So what that he is from Northeast Ohio, that is your evidence of a fix? Please.
The reason the balls coming out is not televised is simple...it takes about 5 minutes to complete the process, and the first overall pick comes out first...how are you going to get advertisers to pay for their commercials to be shown after the first minute of the show when the #1 pick is already revealed? By doing that process behind closed doors (with 5+ members of the media, who aren't "highly scrutinized, but kept from having a computer, cell phone, camera, or tape recorder, so the end result isn't leaked to anyone) they can keep the TV show 30 minutes long and make some $$ by selling commercials.
Those of us here in Cleveland are quite happy! Sellouts, nationally televised games, new uniforms/logo next year....Can't wait!
binomialcdf(18, .225, 3) = .3976 = 39.76% chance of happening.
binomialpdf(18. .225, 3) = .2031 = 20.31% chance of happening.
It's a binomial because:
1) Each observation falls into one of two categories: success or failure (team with best chance getting #1 pick or not)
2) There is a fixed number of observations (18)
3) The observations are all independent.
4) The probability of success is the same for each observation (I'm assuming that's the case)
pdf means a probability distribution function. it's the chance of getting what you got given the probabilities.
cdf means a cumulative distribution function, so it's the sum of all probabilities equal to or less than 3 (0, 1, 2, 3)
My elementary statistics knowledge says that out of 18 trials with a .225 probability of success show that the chances of 3 or less successes (in this case team with best chance of getting lottery pick) is 39.76%
The chance of getting exactly 3 is 20.31%.
Both of these are large enough to happen and not be considered a "rare" event (my stats class defined rare as less than 5%). So it's not surprising that it happened.
binomialpdf(18. .225, 3) = .2031 = 20.31% chance of happening.
It's a binomial because:
1) Each observation falls into one of two categories: success or failure (team with best chance getting #1 pick or not)
2) There is a fixed number of observations (18)
3) The observations are all independent.
4) The probability of success is the same for each observation (I'm assuming that's the case)
pdf means a probability distribution function. it's the chance of getting what you got given the probabilities.
cdf means a cumulative distribution function, so it's the sum of all probabilities equal to or less than 3 (0, 1, 2, 3)
My elementary statistics knowledge says that out of 18 trials with a .225 probability of success show that the chances of 3 or less successes (in this case team with best chance of getting lottery pick) is 39.76%
The chance of getting exactly 3 is 20.31%.
Both of these are large enough to happen and not be considered a "rare" event (my stats class defined rare as less than 5%). So it's not surprising that it happened.
spanky
Lifer
- Jun 19, 2001
- 25,716
- 4
- 81
Originally posted by: flxnimprtmscl
Anyway spanky, first you cite them having the most chances as the reason why they got him and then when presented with the fact that the team with the most chances virtually never gets the first pick you dismiss the fact. Which one is it?
reading is fundamental.
virtually never? u know the lottery system is like 18 years old right?
Originally posted by: Deeko
Originally posted by: joe678
u should be the last person telling ppl to shut up...
Don't you fvcking tell me what I should be doing. You're the fvcking moron who doesnt know jack sh!t and is probaly just pissy that his team didn't win 1st pick. Go cry to someone that gives a damn.
bwahaha...like u in your original post?
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