• We’re currently investigating an issue related to the forum theme and styling that is impacting page layout and visual formatting. The problem has been identified, and we are actively working on a resolution. There is no impact to user data or functionality, this is strictly a front-end display issue. We’ll post an update once the fix has been deployed. Thanks for your patience while we get this sorted.

Nate Silver says the GOP may win the Senate in 2014

monovillage

monovillage

Diamond Member
This weekend’s announcement by the former governor of Montana, Brian Schweitzer, that he would not seek that state’s Democratic nomination for Senate represents the latest in a series of favorable developments for Republicans as they seek control of the chamber.
Click to expand...

The best thing that could happen to this country is if the Republicans gain control of the Senate in 2014 and retain control of the House.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rol-in-2014-increasingly-looks-like-a-tossup/
 
Obama will want to have something for his legacy so he would want to do everything he can to hold the Senate. I say, offer the DHS to Susan Collins of Maine.
 
The only difference it would seem to make is that the Democrat pretense of opposing Republicans will no longer matter. AKA, there will be less drama with pretty much the same end result.

IMO, the Republicans stance on pretty much everything is dogshit. However, the Democrats, although having the more sane stance on things, can't fight their way out of a wet paper bag and are thus useless.

Fortunately I don't live with such a crappy scenario. Unfortunately I hear the constant fuss over it and as such my hand has become permanently attached to my face.
 
Don't forget Nate's rival Sam Wang over at Princeton Election Consortium:

http://election.princeton.edu/2013/02/03/slaying-the-gerrymander/ (IIRC, I think he said at one point that without all of the gerrymandering, Romney could have also lost the House in November 2012)




I believe Sam Wang said that Nate's models are built determining probabilities of lots of what if scenarios (e. g. I think I remember reading that he was studying how weathermen track the predicted path of hurricanes, to improve his predictive models), while PEC, using meta-analysis, tried to filter out all of the noise of all the polls (combined together) to reach a more precise take (lower and lower margin of error as more polls get added to his model and as get closer to actual election day) of what polls are saying. Don't think there are any Senate polls for Wang to meta-analyze yet, though (?)

(You probably need to dig down and see what assumptions Nate is making to better understand his conclusions).
 
Last edited:
Doppel said:
You bet against Nate you bet against freedom and America. Guy knows his shit!
Click to expand...

Would that mean that the GOP is against freedom and 'Merica since they bet against him in the last election?

dean-chambers.jpg
 
cliftonite said:
Hard to bet against Nate Silver. It seems very likely that the Dems lose the Senate.
Click to expand...

His forecast says it's a tossup, so if you don't want to bet against Nate Silver you don't want to say that it's very likely the Dems lose the Senate.

It's overall a very favorable Senate map for the Republicans, so they certainly might. The 2016 Senate map for the Republicans is a catastrophe, however.
 
BTW, who wants to bet that conservatives suddenly start believing the polls and pollsters again if they give them good news?
 
The best thing that could happen to this country is if the Republicans gain control of the Senate in 2014 and retain control of the House.
Click to expand...

Silly me, I thought the best thing that could happen to America would be if manufacturing was moved back here, health care was affordable and our debt was paid off. Frankly one political party or the other gaining more power isn't even in the top 100 in my list of best things that could happen to America. Other than things that don't effect me (abortion, gay rights, burning flags, etc....) it is really really really difficult for me to see much difference between them.
 
Dimes worth of difference on anything that matters. Environmental pillage same. Richy Rich economic policy same. Military aggression same. Raping civil liberties same.

Democrats and Republicans are a two-headed beast who fool you with crap like religion which they dont care about or gays which they dont care about and rape us.
 
bshole said:
Silly me, I thought the best thing that could happen to America would be if manufacturing was moved back here, health care was affordable and our debt was paid off. Frankly one political party or the other gaining more power isn't even in the top 100 in my list of best things that could happen to America. Other than things that don't effect me (abortion, gay rights, burning flags, etc....) it is really really really difficult for me to see much difference between them.
Click to expand...

I see no one with wit or wisdom to formulate such plans, are principled enough to make people over priority party nor brave enough not to surrender to corruption, and understand even the most basic needs apolitically. I'm not holding my breath on any of those.
 
Zebo said:
Dimes worth of difference on anything that matters. Environmental pillage same. Richy Rich economic policy same. Military aggression same. Raping civil liberties same.

Democrats and Republicans are a two-headed beast who fool you with crap like religion which they dont care about or gays which they dont care about and rape us.
Click to expand...

Ahh the good old false equivalence bs again. It never gets old.
 
Zebo said:
Dimes worth of difference on anything that matters. Environmental pillage same. Richy Rich economic policy same. Military aggression same. Raping civil liberties same.

Democrats and Republicans are a two-headed beast who fool you with crap like religion which they dont care about or gays which they dont care about and rape us.
Click to expand...

Not the same, the fucking democrats are a hell of a lot worse.
 
eskimospy said:
It's overall a very favorable Senate map for the Republicans, so they certainly might. The 2016 Senate map for the Republicans is a catastrophe, however.
Click to expand...
Pretty much this. The Dems have many more seats to defend in this election than the GOP does. It is very possible for them to win a 1 or 2 seat majority this election and then have it swing the other way in 2016 especially if the GOP puts up another weak sister presidential candidate that has no coattails to ride.

But hey the GOP screwed up 2012 so they may be able to repeat that performance next year.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

TRENDING THREADS

Back
Top