- Jul 3, 2008
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The best thing that could happen to this country is if the Republicans gain control of the Senate in 2014 and retain control of the House.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rol-in-2014-increasingly-looks-like-a-tossup/
Nate Silver says the GOP may win the Senate in 2014
- Thread starter monovillage
- Start date
The best thing that could happen to this country is if the Republicans gain control of the Senate in 2014 and retain control of the House.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytime...rol-in-2014-increasingly-looks-like-a-tossup/
Obama will want to have something for his legacy so he would want to do everything he can to hold the Senate. I say, offer the DHS to Susan Collins of Maine.
sandorski
No Lifer
- Oct 10, 1999
- 70,696
- 6,257
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The only difference it would seem to make is that the Democrat pretense of opposing Republicans will no longer matter. AKA, there will be less drama with pretty much the same end result.
IMO, the Republicans stance on pretty much everything is dogshit. However, the Democrats, although having the more sane stance on things, can't fight their way out of a wet paper bag and are thus useless.
Fortunately I don't live with such a crappy scenario. Unfortunately I hear the constant fuss over it and as such my hand has become permanently attached to my face.
IMO, the Republicans stance on pretty much everything is dogshit. However, the Democrats, although having the more sane stance on things, can't fight their way out of a wet paper bag and are thus useless.
Fortunately I don't live with such a crappy scenario. Unfortunately I hear the constant fuss over it and as such my hand has become permanently attached to my face.
Don't forget Nate's rival Sam Wang over at Princeton Election Consortium:
http://election.princeton.edu/2013/02/03/slaying-the-gerrymander/ (IIRC, I think he said at one point that without all of the gerrymandering, Romney could have also lost the House in November 2012)
I believe Sam Wang said that Nate's models are built determining probabilities of lots of what if scenarios (e. g. I think I remember reading that he was studying how weathermen track the predicted path of hurricanes, to improve his predictive models), while PEC, using meta-analysis, tried to filter out all of the noise of all the polls (combined together) to reach a more precise take (lower and lower margin of error as more polls get added to his model and as get closer to actual election day) of what polls are saying. Don't think there are any Senate polls for Wang to meta-analyze yet, though (?)
(You probably need to dig down and see what assumptions Nate is making to better understand his conclusions).
http://election.princeton.edu/2013/02/03/slaying-the-gerrymander/ (IIRC, I think he said at one point that without all of the gerrymandering, Romney could have also lost the House in November 2012)
I believe Sam Wang said that Nate's models are built determining probabilities of lots of what if scenarios (e. g. I think I remember reading that he was studying how weathermen track the predicted path of hurricanes, to improve his predictive models), while PEC, using meta-analysis, tried to filter out all of the noise of all the polls (combined together) to reach a more precise take (lower and lower margin of error as more polls get added to his model and as get closer to actual election day) of what polls are saying. Don't think there are any Senate polls for Wang to meta-analyze yet, though (?)
(You probably need to dig down and see what assumptions Nate is making to better understand his conclusions).
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UberNeuman
Lifer
- Nov 4, 1999
- 16,937
- 3,087
- 126
Would that mean that the GOP is against freedom and 'Merica since they bet against him in the last election?
His forecast says it's a tossup, so if you don't want to bet against Nate Silver you don't want to say that it's very likely the Dems lose the Senate.
It's overall a very favorable Senate map for the Republicans, so they certainly might. The 2016 Senate map for the Republicans is a catastrophe, however.
BTW, who wants to bet that conservatives suddenly start believing the polls and pollsters again if they give them good news?
UberNeuman
Lifer
- Nov 4, 1999
- 16,937
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ivwshane
Lifer
- May 15, 2000
- 33,369
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Doppel
Lifer
- Feb 5, 2011
- 13,306
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Would that mean that the GOP is against freedom and 'Merica since they bet against him in the last election?
Some if them yes!
bshole
Diamond Member
- Mar 12, 2013
- 8,315
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Silly me, I thought the best thing that could happen to America would be if manufacturing was moved back here, health care was affordable and our debt was paid off. Frankly one political party or the other gaining more power isn't even in the top 100 in my list of best things that could happen to America. Other than things that don't effect me (abortion, gay rights, burning flags, etc....) it is really really really difficult for me to see much difference between them.
Zebo
Elite Member
- Jul 29, 2001
- 39,398
- 19
- 81
Dimes worth of difference on anything that matters. Environmental pillage same. Richy Rich economic policy same. Military aggression same. Raping civil liberties same.
Democrats and Republicans are a two-headed beast who fool you with crap like religion which they dont care about or gays which they dont care about and rape us.
Democrats and Republicans are a two-headed beast who fool you with crap like religion which they dont care about or gays which they dont care about and rape us.
Hayabusa Rider
Admin Emeritus & Elite Member
- Jan 26, 2000
- 50,879
- 4,268
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I see no one with wit or wisdom to formulate such plans, are principled enough to make people over priority party nor brave enough not to surrender to corruption, and understand even the most basic needs apolitically. I'm not holding my breath on any of those.
- Jul 3, 2008
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UberNeuman
Lifer
- Nov 4, 1999
- 16,937
- 3,087
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How so? It should be easy to demonstrate this for the peanut gallery.
Using blogs aren't going to help you....
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UberNeuman
Lifer
- Nov 4, 1999
- 16,937
- 3,087
- 126
IronWing
No Lifer
- Jul 20, 2001
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- Jul 3, 2008
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UberNeuman
Lifer
- Nov 4, 1999
- 16,937
- 3,087
- 126
Isn't it a terrible thing when you've backed yourself into a corner... and yet not realize it.....
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Pretty much this. The Dems have many more seats to defend in this election than the GOP does. It is very possible for them to win a 1 or 2 seat majority this election and then have it swing the other way in 2016 especially if the GOP puts up another weak sister presidential candidate that has no coattails to ride.
But hey the GOP screwed up 2012 so they may be able to repeat that performance next year.
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