Motorcycle Accident statistics

[Amused]

Originally posted by: halik

Originally posted by: Viper GTS
My brother is intent on getting a motorcycle.

He just turned 18, doesn't have much by way of income, & sees the high gas mileage + dirt cheap insurance as being worth the risk(s).

I think he'll avoid the majority of the things on that list, but I'm still worried for him.



Viper GTS

Commuting on a bike is playing russian roulette on a daily basis... with big enough sample size, the odds of your survival will converge to the stats the o/p posted...

Um, no. The chances of being in an accident are the same on your 1000th trip as they were on your first all other things being equal.

Odds do NOT accumulate.

 

[Baked]

Why haven't people invented collision air bubble for motorcycle riders yet? You strap it on like a back pack. During an accident, you'd pull the cord, and the back pack would expand into a giant bubble, engulfing you, and upon impact the bubble will just bounce you around.

 

[Amused]

Originally posted by: Baked
Why haven't people invented collision air bubble for motorcycle riders yet? You strap it on like a back pack. During an accident, you'd pull the cord, and the back pack would expand into a giant bubble, engulfing you, and upon impact the bubble will just bounce you around.

'cause we all have so much time to pull cords when we get hit by a car, right?

 

[StageLeft]

Um, no. The chances of being in an accident are the same on your 1000th trip as they were on your first all other things being equal.

Odds do NOT accumulate.

Yeah but if you have 1/1000 chance of dying each time and you drive to work 10k times, chances are in the 90's that you're going to get toast on one of those trips!

 

[Triumph]

Originally posted by: Baked
Why haven't people invented collision air bubble for motorcycle riders yet? You strap it on like a back pack. During an accident, you'd pull the cord, and the back pack would expand into a giant bubble, engulfing you, and upon impact the bubble will just bounce you around.

Someone did develop that not too long ago, it was floating around the various motorcycle forums. Pretty comical looking.

 

[Amused]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Um, no. The chances of being in an accident are the same on your 1000th trip as they were on your first all other things being equal.

Odds do NOT accumulate.

Yeah but if you have 1/1000 chance of dying each time and you drive to work 10k times, chances are in the 90's that you're going to get toast on one of those trips!

Nope. Your odds are 1/1000 every time you leave the house.

Look it up. Odds do not accumulate like that.

Tell me, if you flip a coin 50 times, and it lands on heads all 50 times what are the odds it will land on tails on the next flip?

50/50

 

[Baked]

Imagine the bubble's triggered by your brain. When you panic, the bubble activates.

 

[Viper GTS]

Originally posted by: Amused

Originally posted by: halik

Originally posted by: Viper GTS
My brother is intent on getting a motorcycle.

He just turned 18, doesn't have much by way of income, & sees the high gas mileage + dirt cheap insurance as being worth the risk(s).

I think he'll avoid the majority of the things on that list, but I'm still worried for him.



Viper GTS

Commuting on a bike is playing russian roulette on a daily basis... with big enough sample size, the odds of your survival will converge to the stats the o/p posted...

Um, no. The chances of being in an accident are the same on your 1000th trip as they were on your first all other things being equal.

Odds do NOT accumulate.

If you had more than one chance you would be correct.

Take the russian roulette example.

Even if you start with a very large group if you play long enough they'll all be dead.

Yes, the odds are identical with every pull of the trigger but if you take the same odds enough times...

The same can be said for any activity with an element of risk, but even if you assume you're no more likely to wreck on a bike than in a car (very generous assumption IMO) the odds of surviving that wreck when/if it happens are so much lower on the bike its a losing deal.

Viper GTS

 

[Amused]

Originally posted by: Baked
Imagine the bubble's triggered by your brain. When you panic, the bubble activates.

Often times you never see what hit you.

And if panic triggered it, I'd trigger mine 15 times a day.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: Amused

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Um, no. The chances of being in an accident are the same on your 1000th trip as they were on your first all other things being equal.

Odds do NOT accumulate.

Yeah but if you have 1/1000 chance of dying each time and you drive to work 10k times, chances are in the 90's that you're going to get toast on one of those trips!

Nope. Your odds are 1/1000 every time you leave the house.

Look it up. Odds do not accumulate like that.

Tell me, if you flip a coin 50 times, and it lands on heads all 50 times what are the odds it will land on tails on the next flip?

50/50

Right, each time is 1/1000, but taken as a whole, over those 10000 trips, your chances are in the 90's over those 10000 trips of not making it to the end. It's similar to how if you have one bullet in the chamber of a revolver and you point it at your head and pull the trigger, you have merely 1/6 chance of dying. Do it all day as quickly as you can and you won't be around to eat dinner.

We're merely arguing different points, as I think we're both aware of each other's numbers

 

[Amused]

Originally posted by: Viper GTS

Originally posted by: Amused

Originally posted by: halik

Originally posted by: Viper GTS
My brother is intent on getting a motorcycle.

He just turned 18, doesn't have much by way of income, & sees the high gas mileage + dirt cheap insurance as being worth the risk(s).

I think he'll avoid the majority of the things on that list, but I'm still worried for him.



Viper GTS

Commuting on a bike is playing russian roulette on a daily basis... with big enough sample size, the odds of your survival will converge to the stats the o/p posted...

Um, no. The chances of being in an accident are the same on your 1000th trip as they were on your first all other things being equal.

Odds do NOT accumulate.

If you had more than one chance you would be correct.

Take the russian roulette example.

Even if you start with a very large group if you play long enough they'll all be dead.

Yes, the odds are identical with every pull of the trigger but if you take the same odds enough times...

Viper GTS

By your logic, there would be no old bikers. And that's just not true.

Take the stats in the OP and remove the boy racers, the inexperienced riders, and the idiots and THEN look at the odds.

 

[halik]

Originally posted by: Amused

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Um, no. The chances of being in an accident are the same on your 1000th trip as they were on your first all other things being equal.

Odds do NOT accumulate.

Yeah but if you have 1/1000 chance of dying each time and you drive to work 10k times, chances are in the 90's that you're going to get toast on one of those trips!

Nope. Your odds are 1/1000 every time you leave the house.

Look it up. Odds do not accumulate like that.

Tell me, if you flip a coin 50 times, and it lands on heads all 50 times what are the odds it will land on tails on the next flip?

50/50

take some stats courses,
they call it expected value. If you have 1% chance of getting hit every time you ride and you ride 100 times, it's expected you will crash once.

 

[lowfatbaconboy]

yes but when the odds of dying in a car crash are .01% and a motorcycle at .1%
then out of 1,000 times you ride you would statistically get in 1 accident and die
and 10,000 times you drive a car you would get in 1 accident and die

but thats including people who do stupid sh!ate so if you don't drink and drive, take a safety course, and don't speed like a friken psycho in traffic you're chances of dying are going to go down (not as low as if you were in a car....but better than if you are stupid)