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Moody predicts an easy Trump 2020 win.

Mai72 said:
www.cnbc.com

Trump is on his way to an easy win in 2020, according to Moody's accurate election model

Moody's three models show Trump getting at least 289 electoral votes, assuming average turnout.
www.cnbc.com www.cnbc.com

Moody is predicting that it's not even going to be close. They were right each and evey time except for the 2016 election. Moody had predicted Hillary would win by a narrow margin.

Let's hope they are wrong this time again. Dead wrong. 🙁
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So they were right until Trump came on the scene?

I don't any more predictions for granted
 
Right... a prediction for a year out.

They do not know who his opponent is going to be, how they square off against each other, how the economy, impeachment, Turkey, and various other issues play out over the course of the next 12 months. It's useless, utter garbage of them to be selling their "info" like this. Wake me up when the nominations are completed.

PS, at least in some areas, the housing market is already in the act of imploding - and will be real apparent by mid 2020.
 
BTW, their sample size is 10 elections, and it's wrong in 10% of them already. You can come up with a best fit model, but with that sample size, it's most likely going to over-fit the data.
 
senseamp said:
BTW, their sample size is 10 elections, and it's wrong in 10% of them already. You can come up with a best fit model, but with that sample size, it's most likely going to over-fit the data.
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Yes, and it should also be mentioned that every one of those except for 2000 was a pretty easy call that was also predicted correctly by the vast majority of pundits and poll analysts.

Also,, Moody's does analytics for investors. It's principle focus is on economics and finances, which suggests it has a bias toward viewing the state of the economy as the ruling factor in election outcomes. If the economy is good, Moody's model will always predict an incumbent victory. But this is Trump. He is not like any other POTUS, and the political environment right now is not anything like what it's been in the past.
 
Jaskalas said:
Trump barely won in 2016. As an unknown outsider running against the "state". Today is he a failed incumbent who is in bed with Republicans.

The regret vote alone will swamp him.
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It’s all about the EC
Winning the electoral college is the only thing that matters.
 
My formerly Trump supporting coworker just flipped on him after the Syria thing and the crazy tweeting. I don't know why this time it was too much but all the previous crazy sh!t wasn't, but I am happy to report that there is a limit of crazy for at least some of his supporters. BTW, health care is cryptonite for the right, you can be talking to the most libertarian guy out there, but bring up the health care system, and you can find an area of agreement very quickly. Almost everyone has been fvcked over by it and is sick of the status quo.
 
senseamp said:
My formerly Trump supporting coworker just flipped on him after the Syria thing and the crazy tweeting. I don't know why this time it was too much but all the previous crazy sh!t wasn't, but I am happy to report that there is a limit of crazy for at least some of his supporters. BTW, health care is cryptonite for the right, you can be talking to the most libertarian guy out there, but bring up the health care system, and you can find an area of agreement very quickly. Almost everyone has been fvcked over by it and is sick of the status quo.
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I have 3 deplorable’s I sort of know announce they no longer support the President.
Seems like kids in cages was their breaking point.
 
woolfe9998 said:
Yes, and it should also be mentioned that every one of those except for 2000 was a pretty easy call that was also predicted correctly by the vast majority of pundits and poll analysts.

Also,, Moody's does analytics for investors. It's principle focus is on economics and finances, which suggests it has a bias toward viewing the state of the economy as the ruling factor in election outcomes. If the economy is good, Moody's model will always predict an incumbent victory. But this is Trump. He is not like any other POTUS, and the political environment right now is not anything like what it's been in the past.
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Yeah, I know a lot of people who are absolutely rolling in money from Trump's tax cuts inflating stock prices, but they would run an Ironman triathlon in an active volcano to get to the polls to vote that MFer out. Moody's assumes average turnout, when the midterm election had a record turnout of almost 50% vs 40% average.
 
Cant see why anyone would pay attention to predictions by anybody, Moodys or others, for an election 1 year away.
 
Always take advice from a company that was heavily involved in inflating the values of loan tranches, aiding in the banking collapse.
 
This might be the timeline where Trump is impeached, removed from office and then goes on to win the 2020 election.
 
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