Milk thread:11-20-07 Milk prices up 75 cents since march and still climbing

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: DrPizza
Not to disappoint Dave, but milk isn't going to go up; it's going to come down. I was amazed at how much grain prices have come down in just a couple of weeks. Dropped almost $5 per 100 pounds of corn. Of course, it'll have to work its way through the system, and a lot of large-scale dairy operations are more or less independent when it comes to feed.

Speaking of which, it's the end of november and many corn fields are unharvested and there's no way the corn could have grown at all in many weeks because the stalks look dead. Do you know why farmers wait so long? Is it because corn can stay in ok shape on the stalk so they wait for the market to somewhat exhaust itself, then harvest? I know a yield can withstand a couple of good frosts. Or is this for feed or ethanol or something other than food? I can't believe it's still out there in so many fields!

 

[Born2bwire]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: DrPizza
Not to disappoint Dave, but milk isn't going to go up; it's going to come down. I was amazed at how much grain prices have come down in just a couple of weeks. Dropped almost $5 per 100 pounds of corn. Of course, it'll have to work its way through the system, and a lot of large-scale dairy operations are more or less independent when it comes to feed.

Speaking of which, it's the end of november and many corn fields are unharvested and there's no way the corn could have grown at all in many weeks because the stalks look dead. Do you know why farmers wait so long? Is it because corn can stay in ok shape on the stalk so they wait for the market to somewhat exhaust itself, then harvest? I know a yield can withstand a couple of good frosts. Or is this for feed or ethanol or something other than food? I can't believe it's still out there in so many fields!

Most corn in the fields is field corn meant for animal feed and such. The sweet corn that we eat is usually picked earlier. My guess is they are waiting for the field corn to finish ripening or once it has ripened, the kernel is not going to change significantly. Some places also stagger their plantings so that a different batch ripens each week, this way they can gradually pick the corn and bring it to market.

 

[DrPizza]

AFAIK, they just chop it up for silage when they get around to it. It doesn't change much at this point, except I believe it loses its moisture.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Originally posted by: DrPizza
AFAIK, they just chop it up for silage when they get around to it. It doesn't change much at this point, except I believe it loses its moisture.

You want the moisture out of the cobs /kernals as much as possible - it reduces rot.

 

[BoomerD]

We have lots of <phew!> dairies around us, so there's tons of acreage of feed and sileage corn.

They chop it green haul it to the dairy where it's stacked and covered...wet & green. Sileage stinks...kind of sour/rotten.
Living in the almond capital of the world, lots of the dairies mix almond hulls in their feed. Supposed to be VERY good for the cows. (not the hard shells, the outer hull...kind of a leathery husk)
There's one cattle ranch not far from us that buys tomatos and fruit that don't meet the cannery's specs and feeds those to his herds as well.

BTW, $3.00 for a gallon of Sunnyside 2% this afternoon.

 

[L00PY]

Originally posted by: DrPizza
Not to disappoint Dave, but milk isn't going to go up; it's going to come down. I was amazed at how much grain prices have come down in just a couple of weeks. Dropped almost $5 per 100 pounds of corn. Of course, it'll have to work its way through the system, and a lot of large-scale dairy operations are more or less independent when it comes to feed.

This is exactly what's happening. Corn prices appear to be a leading indicator for milk prices, or at least strongly correlated. Here are two graphs that illustrate this point: Corn Prices and Milk Prices.

I made the milk prices chart by downloading the NYS dairy info (link provided earlier), and graphing the metropolitan New York average supermarket prices for a plastic gallon of whole milk. On a side note, you can see that the average supermarket price in NYC has never gone over $4.50.

You can see a spike upwards in spring of 2004 for corn and that coincides with the spike in milk prices in the summer of 2004. Likewise, in late 2006 / early 2007 the steady increase in corn price started, followed by the spring 2007 rise in milk prices. Given that corn prices appear to be continuing downwards, I suspect we'll see milk prices continue to drop.

 

[StageLeft]

Kinda depressing. If I was naughty, next year I'd take a few of those stalks, because heck I bet I'd appreciate them more in september than a cow will in Feb!

 

[Moonbeam]

Milk is a mixture of oil, pesticides and antibiotics and prices have risen on those too.

 

[DrPizza]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Milk is a mixture of oil, pesticides and antibiotics and prices have risen on those too.

Wrong.

If the antibiotics are detected in the milk, the milk is dumped, and the farmer pays the cost. (i.e. if they pick up 3000 gallons at the farm up the road, then pick up 2000 gallons on your farm & it requires them to dump out all 5000 gallons, you're paying for those other 2000 gallons. (Of course, the trucks are compartmentalized to help minimize this problem. However, some farms, particularly toward the end of a run, may end up topping off 2 or more of the compartments. Every antibiotic that a farmer could possibly give is clearly labeled as to whether or not it passes through the milk/whether or not you can use the milk, and for how many days after the antibiotic is given the milk can be used.

Ditto pesticides. There's a ppm limit set on the amount of pesticides that can be present.

 

[XMan]

Hey, Dave, I got four half gallons for $5 at Kroger. I'm having some trouble with the division though, maybe you could help me out with that . . .

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: XMan
Hey, Dave, I got four half gallons for $5 at Kroger. I'm having some trouble with the division though, maybe you could help me out with that . . .

Who cares, I'm waiting for the price of a good steak to drop.

 

[ElFenix]

back down to $5 a gallon in houston

 

[blackangst1]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: XMan
Hey, Dave, I got four half gallons for $5 at Kroger. I'm having some trouble with the division though, maybe you could help me out with that . . .

Who cares, I'm waiting for the price of a good steak to drop.

Not sure where you live, but Safeway and Albertsons of all places have great beef. I picked up somne porterhouse at Safeway few days ago for $6.99/lb...just gotta watch sales and such. Costco has good beef too.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: XMan
Hey, Dave, I got four half gallons for $5 at Kroger. I'm having some trouble with the division though, maybe you could help me out with that . . .

Who cares, I'm waiting for the price of a good steak to drop.

Not sure where you live, but Safeway and Albertsons of all places have great beef. I picked up somne porterhouse at Safeway few days ago for $6.99/lb...just gotta watch sales and such. Costco has good beef too.

$5/lb here.

Family Slaughterhouse down the street.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: XMan
Hey, Dave, I got four half gallons for $5 at Kroger. I'm having some trouble with the division though, maybe you could help me out with that . . .

Who cares, I'm waiting for the price of a good steak to drop.

Not sure where you live, but Safeway and Albertsons of all places have great beef. I picked up somne porterhouse at Safeway few days ago for $6.99/lb...just gotta watch sales and such. Costco has good beef too.

$5/lb here.

Family Slaughterhouse down the street.

Obviously you are just a porterhouse apologist. How much are they paying you? When are you packing your bags...?

 

[KK]

Originally posted by: blackangst1

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: XMan
Hey, Dave, I got four half gallons for $5 at Kroger. I'm having some trouble with the division though, maybe you could help me out with that . . .

Who cares, I'm waiting for the price of a good steak to drop.

Not sure where you live, but Safeway and Albertsons of all places have great beef. I picked up somne porterhouse at Safeway few days ago for $6.99/lb...just gotta watch sales and such. Costco has good beef too.

I usually pick up ribeyes at BJs for 6.99/lb. Their steaks are more tender and have better marbling than what I can find at the grocery stores.