Michigan remains #2 in BCS

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: Wreckem
What I dont get is no one at all was bitching about the potential OSU vs Texas rematch before Texas lost.

Also if USC loses to ND, wouldnt that mean there would be to rematches in all likelyhood.

OSU vs Michigan in the NC game, and USC vs ND in the Rose?

No...because the humans who run the Rose Bowl get pick the replacement for the Big 10 champ. I would guess WVU would have the inside track (contingent on them beating Rutgers).

I can tell you this about the Rose Bowl. They are going to try and keep it Big Ten vs. Pac-10. Michigan will go to the Rose Bowl without a doubt. If USC is not available because of the same issue (in BCS championship game) the Rose Bowl will almost undoubtedly choose Notre Dame because of their national appeal. I highly doubt that WVU will go to the Rose Bowl.

Bowl committees don't care about rematches. They care about boosters and alumni attending games and spending money.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: mpitts

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: Wreckem
What I dont get is no one at all was bitching about the potential OSU vs Texas rematch before Texas lost.

Also if USC loses to ND, wouldnt that mean there would be to rematches in all likelyhood.

OSU vs Michigan in the NC game, and USC vs ND in the Rose?

No...because the humans who run the Rose Bowl get pick the replacement for the Big 10 champ. I would guess WVU would have the inside track (contingent on them beating Rutgers).

I can tell you this about the Rose Bowl. They are going to try and keep it Big Ten vs. Pac-10. Michigan will go to the Rose Bowl without a doubt. If USC is not available because of the same issue (in BCS championship game) the Rose Bowl will almost undoubtedly choose Notre Dame because of their national appeal. I highly doubt that WVU will go to the Rose Bowl.

Yup, the Rose Bowl loves them some tradition...

But would they do that even though either Mich-ND or USC-ND would be a rematch of an earlier game?

 

[mpitts]

FWIW, here are my projections for how the BCS bowls will shape up:

If USC beats Notre Dame

Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs. Boise State

Rose Bowl - Michigan vs. Notre Dame

Sugar Bowl - Florida vs. West Virginia

Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech vs. Louisville/Arkansas/LSU

BCS Championship Bowl - OSU vs. USC

If Notre Dame beats USC

Fiesta Bowl - Texas vs. Boise State

Rose Bowl - USC vs. Notre Dame

Sugar Bowl - Florida vs. West Virginia

Orange Bowl - Georgia Tech vs. Louisville/Arkansas/LSU

BCS Championship Bowl - OSU vs. Michigan

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: mpitts

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: Wreckem
What I dont get is no one at all was bitching about the potential OSU vs Texas rematch before Texas lost.

Also if USC loses to ND, wouldnt that mean there would be to rematches in all likelyhood.

OSU vs Michigan in the NC game, and USC vs ND in the Rose?

No...because the humans who run the Rose Bowl get pick the replacement for the Big 10 champ. I would guess WVU would have the inside track (contingent on them beating Rutgers).

I can tell you this about the Rose Bowl. They are going to try and keep it Big Ten vs. Pac-10. Michigan will go to the Rose Bowl without a doubt. If USC is not available because of the same issue (in BCS championship game) the Rose Bowl will almost undoubtedly choose Notre Dame because of their national appeal. I highly doubt that WVU will go to the Rose Bowl.

Yup, the Rose Bowl loves them some tradition...

But would they do that even though either Mich-ND or USC-ND would be a rematch of an earlier game?

They get the first and second choice if USC wins because both of the teams contractually obligated to play in their game will be in the BCS championship game.

I am very confident that Michigan would be the 1st team selected (Big Ten tie-in) and that there is no way they would be able to turn their backs on the payday that bringing Notre Dame in would bring.

They can't pick another Pac-10 team because the next-highest rated team in California and they are currently #19 and don't qualify.

 

[sciencewhiz]

Originally posted by: mpitts
Just so you know, the SOS numbers I am using are coming from collegebcs.com. I am a subscriber there. The numbers I am using are the PROJECTED numbers, not the current numbers. Florida's SOS will drop because they are playing a 6-5 FSU team. USC's SOS will go up because they are playing a 10-1 Notre Dame team.

The SOS numbers are using the same formula that the BCS used from 1999-2003. They do include Florida playing Arkansas, which really helps Florida, but not as much as playing Notre Dame helps USC. UCLA helps USC more then Florida State helps Florida.

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: sciencewhiz

Originally posted by: mpitts
Just so you know, the SOS numbers I am using are coming from collegebcs.com. I am a subscriber there. The numbers I am using are the PROJECTED numbers, not the current numbers. Florida's SOS will drop because they are playing a 6-5 FSU team. USC's SOS will go up because they are playing a 10-1 Notre Dame team.

The SOS numbers are using the same formula that the BCS used from 1999-2003. They do include Florida playing Arkansas, which really helps Florida, but not as much as playing Notre Dame helps USC. UCLA helps USC more then Florida State helps Florida.

The moral of my posts' story is that all three teams have top 10 schedules. When you argue #1 vs #10 in strength of schedule, you are usually aruging about .020 - .030 difference in the winning percentages of your opponents and your opponent's opponents. It is VERY slight. What that means is that the difference between their SOS's is marginal.

 

[kalster]

if Michigan would have won I wonder if the rematch would have been a given

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: kalster
if Michigan would have won I wonder if the rematch would have been a given

I think it would have been, and I said it in either this thread or the thread about the game. Some people disagreed with me simply because they think a rematch shouldn't happen. I think that's utterly stupid. Hardly anyone thinks Ohio State is NOT the best team in the country. If Michigan beat them Michigan would have jumped to number 1, but still there would be very few people who didn't think Ohio State was one of the top two in the country. Shutting them out because it would be a rematch is STUPID.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: mpitts
FWIW, here are my projections for how the BCS bowls will shape up:

FWIW, here are mine (includes who I think will win in the remaining games):

NCG - Ohio State - USC
Rose - Michigan (At-Large) - West Virginia (At-Large)
Sugar - Florida (SEC) - Notre Dame (At-Large)
Orange - Georgia Tech (ACC) - Louisville
Fiesta - Texas (Big 12) - Boise State (At-Large)


Could be wrong, but here's why:

Remaining Games
USC beats ND
WVU beats Rutgers
Ark loses to either LSU or Fla
GT beats, who is it now, Wake? It's pretty crowded at the top of the ACC

I'd take Ark if Ark-Fla was the next and last game the Razorbacks play, but they've got an extra chance to slip with LSU. If Ark beats LSU, they'll become my prediction for the SEC Champion and Sugar Bowl, and Florida takes the Orange. Until then, Ark loses one, drops past Louisville in the BCS rankings.

Georgia Tech...no real big argument for picking them, but gotta pick someone.

Picking At-Large Teams
Notre Dame and Boise State'll get their auto-bids

(1) Rose Bowl takes the highest-ranked, non-ND team, WVU
(2) Sugar takes the passed-over ND
(3) Orange takes Louisville, I guess?
(4) Fiesta gets stuck with Boise State

Want winners? OSU, Mich, Fla, Louisville, Texas

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: kalster
if Michigan would have won I wonder if the rematch would have been a given

It would probably be close. OSU fans would be begging for it. They would say "Our only loss is the to the #1 team in the country". Their SOS is lower than all three of the current contenders (UM/USC/Florida), so the computers would defintely drop them further than they did Michigan.

OSU would have a case, but without the marquee wins that Michigan is perceived to have (ND and Wisconsin) it would not be as strong.

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: mpitts
FWIW, here are my projections for how the BCS bowls will shape up:

FWIW, here are mine (includes who I think will win in the remaining games):

NCG - Ohio State - USC
Rose - Michigan (At-Large) - West Virginia (At-Large)
Sugar - Florida (SEC) - Notre Dame (At-Large)
Orange - Georgia Tech (ACC) - Louisville (At-Large)
Fiesta - Texas (Big 12) - Boise State (At-Large)


Could be wrong, but here's why:

Remaining Games
USC beats ND
WVU beats Rutgers
Ark loses to either LSU or Fla
GT beats, who is it now, Wake? It's pretty crowded at the top of the ACC

I'd take Ark if Ark-Fla was the next and last game the Razorbacks play, but they've got an extra chance to slip with LSU. If Ark beats LSU, they'll become my prediction for the SEC Champion and Sugar Bowl, and Florida takes the Orange. Until then, Ark loses one, drops past Louisville in the BCS rankings.

Georgia Tech...no real big argument for picking them, but gotta pick someone.

Picking At-Large Teams
Notre Dame and Boise State'll get their auto-bids

(1) Rose Bowl takes the highest-ranked, non-ND team, WVU
(2) Sugar takes the passed-over ND
(3) Orange takes Louisville, I guess?
(4) Fiesta gets stuck with Boise State

Want winners? OSU, Mich, Fla, Louisville, Texas

I only disagree on WVU. I'd like to see that game in the Rose Bowl, but I just have a hard time believing that any bowl committee would leave all of the money that putting ND in their bowl on the proverbial table.

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: mpitts

I only disagree on WVU. I'd like to see that game in the Rose Bowl, but I just have a hard time believing that any bowl committee would leave all of the money that putting ND in their bowl on the proverbial table.

Maybe...Of course, I'm basing this on zero knowledge of who's on the Rose Bowl committee.

I know that if it were me, I wouldn't want to see Michigan playing someone again that they'd already routed in an away game...As a UM fan, would you be excited about that game? Would an ND fan?

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: b0mbrman

Originally posted by: mpitts

I only disagree on WVU. I'd like to see that game in the Rose Bowl, but I just have a hard time believing that any bowl committee would leave all of the money that putting ND in their bowl on the proverbial table.

Maybe...Of course, I'm basing this on zero knowledge of who's on the Rose Bowl committee.

I know that if it were me, I wouldn't want to see Michigan playing someone again that they'd already routed in an away game...As a UM fan, would you be excited about that game? Would an ND fan?

I honestly wouldn't care if they played Notre Dame or not. The way the BCS has screwed up college football, it only matters if you make it to one bowl. The others don't mean crap anymore.

 

[JasonCoder]

Dunno about a two loss Notre Shame team getting into a BCS bowl. Don't they have to be ranked in the top 12 to get an at large?

And geez... listen to the OSU haters on here long enough and you'd think they won the damn game or something. This just in... YOU LOST. Have some class and quit trashing the team that beat you. You had two gift turnovers and still couldn't do it.

If OSU sucks then what exactly does that say about UM that has lost 5 of the last 6 to OSU?

 

[b0mbrman]

Originally posted by: JasonCoder
Dunno about a two loss Notre Shame team getting into a BCS bowl. Don't they have to be ranked in the top 12 to get an at large?

Top 8 => They're guaranteed a BCS bowl
Top 14 => They're eligible...and because they're big money, someone'll take them