McCain closing in on Electoral College toss up?

[techs]

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-418.html
The one state McCain HAS to win is Florida. Two new polls now have him ahead (barely)
SurveyUSA McCain 49 Obama 47
Foxnews/Rassmussen McCain 49 Obama 48

Clearly the momentum has shifted, especially when consider that one of these polls taken a week ago had Obama up by 5.

So, where does it leave McCain? Lets say McCain does lose Virginia.
The two big Bush states from 2004 that are tight are Florida and Ohio. Clearly Florida is not just a toss up, but the momentum is on McCains side.
The Ohio polls have also showed a definite shift towards McCain, though Ohio polls show some big differences, Obama up by 9 in one, and McCain up by 2 in another.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-400.html

Short version. Florida and Ohio are absolutely a toss up with McCain on the upswing in both. If Obama wins Virginia and McCain takes Florida and Ohio, which at this point is 50-50 with the momentum on McCains side, we're back to 2004.

Bush got 286 electoral votes. Take away the 13 from Virginia. That leaves McCain with 273.

So, the only two states from Bushes 2004 that are now leaning Obama are Colorado and New Mexico. With their combined 14 votes Obama squeaks by.

Hey, Democrats, don't you get it? Its mass delusion to think this election is not razor thin in the electoral college. And the polls are moving McCains way.

 

[midway]

For that scenario to take place McCain would have to win every single state that is currently listed as a tossup at RCP and VA and CO / NM. I also disagree with the statement that McCain has the momentum, I believe what you are seeing is that Obama's big rise has stopped and we are sitting in statistical noise on a daily basis.

 

[JJChicken]

It is a very close election, Axelrod is currently quite uneasy about Pennsylvania. I think Obama will come through though as long as people don't take victory for granted.

 

[SP33Demon]

VA is now SOLID blue on Pollster. VA (52.4 - 43.5) + IA (53.2 - 41.8) + Kerry States (he won't lose any) = Obama win, don't you get it? 272 - 266. McCain has been outcampaigned in VA by 11-3 in trips, it's too late now, VA is gone just like PA was weeks ago. In addition, McCain is still losing in CO, NM, MO, ND, OH, FL, and NC to Obama. He has to sweep all 7 to even have a chance which are highly unlikely.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
VA is now SOLID blue on Pollster. VA (52.4 - 43.5) + IA (53.2 - 41.8) + Kerry States (he won't lose any) = Obama win, don't you get it? 272 - 266. McCain has been outcampaigned in VA by 11-3 in trips, it's too late now, VA is gone just like PA was weeks ago. In addition, McCain is still losing in CO, NM, MO, ND, OH, FL, and NC to Obama. He has to sweep all 7 to even have a chance which are highly unlikely.

Well let's hope the Obama supporters get real nervous about McCain and that whack job gaining momentum so they don't become complacent.

 

[Painman]

You forgot Iowa

Kerry + CO + IA + NM = Win already (273 EVs).

Look at what's on the toss-up table. FL, MO, NC, NV, OH, VA.

Throw in what some people are calling "sleeper" states... GA, IN, MT, ND, WV. 2nd Congressional District of NE.

Throw in $150M raised over the month of September...

 

[StageLeft]

I'm going to be sick.

 

[TraumaRN]

So lets say McCain wins Ohio, Florida, WV, and Indiana. He'd end up with 221 EV.

Obama wins Nevada, Missouri, Virginia, and North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico + all of Kerry's states. Obama 317 EV

Not so close. And to be honest I can see McCain and Obama split Florida and Ohio.

But to be honest McCain is dying from 1000 paper cuts all at once. Sure he stopped the bleeding in Florida and Ohio but what about Virginia, North Carolina, Iowa, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada....

 

[skyking]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
I'm going to be sick.

there there, take it easy skoorb.

 

[sportage]

Q...
Do they "poll" early voters?
That is, do they ask "did you vote yet?"
And if you did, do they continue with the poll?

ANYway... VOTE EARLY (like today) if you can...
(problems/long lines already coming into play. DON'T GET SCREWED! Vote early!)

 

[dullard]

Virtually all elections narrow in the few couple of weeks. Thus, it would be highly unusual for McCain to NOT gain a bit. If you look at fivethirtyeight.com, the projection and trend have both slightly moved McCain's way. But, there isn't enough time for it to move all the way into McCain being predicted to win.

Originally posted by: Painman
You forgot Iowa

Kerry + CO + IA + NM = Win already (273 EVs).

McCain top people say that CO, IA, and NM are gone. Their plan is now to win a sizable Kerry state (Pennsylvania). With McCain currently down big in Pennsylvania, this is quite a long shot. If that video is true, Obama pretty much has it in the bag with those 273 that you mention. Game over unless Obama screws up in a major way in the next 2 weeks.

 

[Lemon law]

I think the McCain resurgence is an illusion, McCain just got clobbered because he was perceived on the wrong side of a potential economic meltdown. And now things do not look like they will fall apart tomorrow, the
American people have short memories, so McCain has just regained some lost ground.

But in terms of that short memories thing, we have to remember that in the last week of the election, McCain is going to get buried by Obama campaign ads. And ole Obama is saving his Sunday punches for that last week. Unless I miss my guess, those ads will cost McCain at least 2 or more points, and that may well be the difference.

 

[chess9]

This race can be won by McCain. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves.

For instance:

1. McCain could actually come up with the right campaign strategy, or have already done so.
2. The economy could improve a bit, such as the stock market rising steadily, and the credit markets loosening more than they have in the last few days.
3. Obama could say something truly stupid. Yes, I know, hard to believe, but he's done it before.
4. Biden is LIKELY to say something truly stupid, but will it matter?
5. The young people WILL stay home and masturbate continuously to loops of old Ray Charles' hits.

-Robert

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: chess9
This race can be won by McCain. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves.

For instance:

1. McCain could actually come up with the right campaign strategy, or have already done so.
2. The economy could improve a bit, such as the stock market rising steadily, and the credit markets loosening more than they have in the last few days.
3. Obama could say something truly stupid. Yes, I know, hard to believe, but he's done it before.
4. Biden is LIKELY to say something truly stupid, but will it matter?
5. The young people WILL stay home and masturbate continuously to loops of old Ray Charles' hits.

-Robert

I would not be surprised to find McCain win by Supreme Court decision again.

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: chess9
This race can be won by McCain. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves.

For instance:

1. McCain could actually come up with the right campaign strategy, or have already done so.
2. The economy could improve a bit, such as the stock market rising steadily, and the credit markets loosening more than they have in the last few days.
3. Obama could say something truly stupid. Yes, I know, hard to believe, but he's done it before.
4. Biden is LIKELY to say something truly stupid, but will it matter?
5. The young people WILL stay home and masturbate continuously to loops of old Ray Charles' hits.

-Robert

I would not be surprised to find McCain win by Supreme Court decision again.

He won't need it as you are voting for him! :thumbsup: But is that your prediction?

 

[chess9]

Originally posted by: alchemize

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: chess9
This race can be won by McCain. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves.

For instance:

1. McCain could actually come up with the right campaign strategy, or have already done so.
2. The economy could improve a bit, such as the stock market rising steadily, and the credit markets loosening more than they have in the last few days.
3. Obama could say something truly stupid. Yes, I know, hard to believe, but he's done it before.
4. Biden is LIKELY to say something truly stupid, but will it matter?
5. The young people WILL stay home and masturbate continuously to loops of old Ray Charles' hits.

-Robert

I would not be surprised to find McCain win by Supreme Court decision again.

He won't need it as you are voting for him! :thumbsup: But is that your prediction?

Scalia's already written the Majority Decision. It reads: "FUCK OFF YOU LIBERAL COMMIES! We're stealing another election from you asshats. Bwuahahahahahaha."

-Robert

 

[T2T IIIa]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: SP33Demon
VA is now SOLID blue on Pollster. VA (52.4 - 43.5) + IA (53.2 - 41.8) + Kerry States (he won't lose any) = Obama win, don't you get it? 272 - 266. McCain has been outcampaigned in VA by 11-3 in trips, it's too late now, VA is gone just like PA was weeks ago. In addition, McCain is still losing in CO, NM, MO, ND, OH, FL, and NC to Obama. He has to sweep all 7 to even have a chance which are highly unlikely.

Well let's hope the Obama supporters get real nervous about McCain and that whack job gaining momentum so they don't become complacent.

I volunteer every other day in my precinct for the McCain/Palin campaign. I could get all frustrated the day after the election *if* Obama wins. However, at least now, I know I'm making an effort to keep communicating to the voters about McCain/Palin.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: techs
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-418.html
The one state McCain HAS to win is Florida. Two new polls now have him ahead (barely)
SurveyUSA McCain 49 Obama 47
Foxnews/Rassmussen McCain 49 Obama 48

Clearly the momentum has shifted, especially when consider that one of these polls taken a week ago had Obama up by 5.

So, where does it leave McCain? Lets say McCain does lose Virginia.
The two big Bush states from 2004 that are tight are Florida and Ohio. Clearly Florida is not just a toss up, but the momentum is on McCains side.
The Ohio polls have also showed a definite shift towards McCain, though Ohio polls show some big differences, Obama up by 9 in one, and McCain up by 2 in another.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-400.html

Short version. Florida and Ohio are absolutely a toss up with McCain on the upswing in both. If Obama wins Virginia and McCain takes Florida and Ohio, which at this point is 50-50 with the momentum on McCains side, we're back to 2004.

Bush got 286 electoral votes. Take away the 13 from Virginia. That leaves McCain with 273.

So, the only two states from Bushes 2004 that are now leaning Obama are Colorado and New Mexico. With their combined 14 votes Obama squeaks by.

Hey, Democrats, don't you get it? Its mass delusion to think this election is not razor thin in the electoral college. And the polls are moving McCains way.

This is so riddled with factual innaccuracies, not differences in opinion. You state the "the only two states from Bushes 2004 that are now leaning Obama are Colorado and New Mexico"? What? Try CO FL IA MO NV NM NC OH VA. http://www.electoral-vote.com/ Click on "This Day in 2004" to see the switches.

The "one state" McCain has to win is FL? If Obama wins either OH or FL or VA then he wins the election. "Lets say McCain loses VA." Fine, then he just lost the election.

To clarify: McCain can win NC, FL, OH, VA, CO, and NV. Obama wins MO? Obama wins the election.

Is the race over? No, but it isn't looking close at the moment. Obama needs to win 1 of 7 "swing" states to win, all of which he is polling even or ahead in, with VA in double digits. It would take a miracle for McCain to win at this point.

 

[T2T IIIa]

Originally posted by: chess9
4. Biden is LIKELY to say something truly stupid, but will it matter?

What do you mean by likely? Biden steps in a pile of it each day he steps up to the podium. The Obama campaign should just put that guy into the closet until after the election. I'd relate this to how they're keeping Dick Cheney hidden underground, as they have for the past several years.

 

[winnar111]

He's closing in on a respectable loss. He's not closing in on a tossup.

 

[bl4ckfl4g]

I'm not even going to let myself think Obama will win because if I do that and he doesn't I'll be very upset. It is easier to tell myself he is going to lose and I actually really think he will lose.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: T2T III
I volunteer every other day in my precinct for the McCain/Palin campaign. I could get all frustrated the day after the election *if* Obama wins. However, at least now,

I know I'm making an effort to keep communicating to the voters about McCain/Palin.

Communicating what about McCain/Palin?

 

[Stoneburner]

Math fails you tech. And there are other new polls showing leads for obama in FL.

Obama should probably defend PA a bit more since it's mccain's lost hope. THe way I see it, the only way mccain wins PA if there is a major shift in 2 weeks anyway.

 

[L00PY]

Originally posted by: dullard
Virtually all elections narrow in the few couple of weeks. Thus, it would be highly unusual for McCain to NOT gain a bit. If you look at fivethirtyeight.com, the projection and trend have both slightly moved McCain's way. But, there isn't enough time for it to move all the way into McCain being predicted to win.

What's more interesting to me from 538 is the scenario analysis. I haven't looked too much into the details of what they do there but I'm guessing they run a simulation with 10,000 runs based on current polling data. According to them, even if Obama lost Ohio and Florida, he still wins the election nearly 60% of the time. The key seems to be Ohio, where the site has Obama winning 99.94% of the time once he wins that state.

 

[T2T III]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: T2T III
I volunteer every other day in my precinct for the McCain/Palin campaign. I could get all frustrated the day after the election *if* Obama wins. However, at least now,

I know I'm making an effort to keep communicating to the voters about McCain/Palin.

Communicating what about McCain/Palin?

Encouraging them to vote. Discussing the facts. Letting the voters realize there is a human side to this election with personal calls, not "robo" calls.