McCain closing in on Electoral College toss up?

[miketheidiot]

don't forget that hawaii is going republican.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Math fails you tech. And there are other new polls showing leads for obama in FL.

Obama should probably defend PA a bit more since it's mccain's lost hope. THe way I see it, the only way mccain wins PA if there is a major shift in 2 weeks anyway.

A couple of things from 2000 and 2004 clearly shows Polls mean nothing

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Math fails you tech. And there are other new polls showing leads for obama in FL.

Obama should probably defend PA a bit more since it's mccain's lost hope. THe way I see it, the only way mccain wins PA if there is a major shift in 2 weeks anyway.

A couple of things from 2000 and 2004 clearly shows Polls mean nothing

Polls are good sources of information. Your large intestines are not a good source.

 

[PokerGuy]

I can only hope that the country does regain some sanity in time for the election so we don't end up being the "United Socialist States of America". Nobama.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: PokerGuy
I can only hope that the country does regain some sanity in time for the election so we don't end up being the "United Socialist States of America". Nobama.

Anyone who would say that has no idea what socialism is.

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Math fails you tech. And there are other new polls showing leads for obama in FL.

Obama should probably defend PA a bit more since it's mccain's lost hope. THe way I see it, the only way mccain wins PA if there is a major shift in 2 weeks anyway.

A couple of things from 2000 and 2004 clearly shows Polls mean nothing

Where's the link to your electoral map again?

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Math fails you tech. And there are other new polls showing leads for obama in FL.

Obama should probably defend PA a bit more since it's mccain's lost hope. THe way I see it, the only way mccain wins PA if there is a major shift in 2 weeks anyway.

A couple of things from 2000 and 2004 clearly shows Polls mean nothing

Polls are good sources of information. Your large intestines are not a good source.

I don't know why, but I lmaof at that.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Math fails you tech. And there are other new polls showing leads for obama in FL.

Obama should probably defend PA a bit more since it's mccain's lost hope. THe way I see it, the only way mccain wins PA if there is a major shift in 2 weeks anyway.

A couple of things from 2000 and 2004 clearly shows Polls mean nothing

Where's the link to your electoral map again?

This explains everything. Dave doesn't base his electoral map on polls, he just picks choices out of thin air.

 

[Lemon law]

Obama has a huge advantage in money, and because campaign commercials only have an effect for a limited time, we should factor in a huge Onbama ad blitz it the last week. It will probably add two points to the Obama spread. But late breaking events could also throw in new jokers into the deck.

 

[PokerGuy]

I wouldn't be surprised to see some sort of international crisis in the next week or two to push the emphasis back to Obama's lack of experience over the domestic economy. I'm not sure where or how though.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Math fails you tech. And there are other new polls showing leads for obama in FL.

Obama should probably defend PA a bit more since it's mccain's lost hope. THe way I see it, the only way mccain wins PA if there is a major shift in 2 weeks anyway.

A couple of things from 2000 and 2004 clearly shows Polls mean nothing

Where's the link to your electoral map again?

This explains everything. Dave doesn't base his electoral map on polls, he just picks choices out of thin air.

Here's the 2004 electoral results:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I...ectoralCollege2004.svg
or
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...dential_election,_2004

Here is the current rcp map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

 

[Xavier434]

CNN currently shows that Obama 49% and McCain 45% in Florida. Obama is also doing some massive campaigning down here right now. He is pulling all the shots and especially that he now has Colin Powell behind him I think he can really pull some numbers. The hispanic population in FL with exception of the newer generations are very much against Obama but Powell is a man in their eyes that could never possibly do any wrong. You will see more of them swinging as a result. I guarantee it.

 

[Farang]

If you want to worry about a toss-up, just keep your eyes on Virginia. McCain cannot win without it, Obama has already locked up a couple Bush states (NM and Iowa) which you did not include in your analysis.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Math fails you tech. And there are other new polls showing leads for obama in FL.

Obama should probably defend PA a bit more since it's mccain's lost hope. THe way I see it, the only way mccain wins PA if there is a major shift in 2 weeks anyway.

A couple of things from 2000 and 2004 clearly shows Polls mean nothing

Where's the link to your electoral map again?

This explains everything. Dave doesn't base his electoral map on polls, he just picks choices out of thin air.

Here's the 2004 electoral results:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I...ectoralCollege2004.svg
or
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...dential_election,_2004

Here is the current rcp map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

And?

FL? Obama up:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-418.html

MO? Obama up: http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-545.html

OH? Obama up: http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-400.html

Obama is also up in Virginia between 6-10 pts. McCain needs to win EVERY SINGLE BATTLEGROUND state to win, and Obama is leading in almost all of them. Hell, Obama's even up 2-3 in freakin North Carolina and that would also give Obama the win.

The electoral math is anything but troubling for Obama at this point, and a betting man's nightmare if he has money on McCain.

Not sure what your point is by your continued posts on the subject of how good McCain's chances are. It isn't close, it isn't likely, and he needs to pull off a miracle to win.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: techs
Here is the current rcp map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

Now if you look at the black toss ups McCain is leading in every one except Florida. If you add these states to McCain you get this:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...obama_vs_mccain/?map=1
Obama 286 McCain 252. I think it may end up this way. But that means McCain only needs to overtake Obama in 17 electoral votes.

Ok, lets look into your logic from the site you linked. Here are the black states:
[*]NV: RCP average: Obama +4.2 (Obama leads in ALL recent polls)
[*]ND: RCP average: McCain +4.0
[*]MO: RCP average: Obama +2.7 (Obama leads in half of the recent polls)
[*]IN: RCP average: McCain +3.8 (McCain leads or ties in ALL recent polls)
[*]OH: RCP average: Obama +2.8 (Obama leads in half of the recent polls)
[*]WV: RCP average: McCain +2.4 (McCain leads in most of the recent polls)
[*]NC: RCP average: Obama +2.3 (Obama leads in ALL recent polls)
[*]FL: RCP average: Obama +2.0 (Obama leads in just over half of the recent polls)

This also ignores the fact that RCP tends to cherry pick republican leaning polls instead of including all polls. I think your argument holds no water.

 

[miketheidiot]

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: PokerGuy
I can only hope that the country does regain some sanity in time for the election so we don't end up being the "United Socialist States of America". Nobama.

Anyone who would say that has no idea what socialism is.

its like a litmus test for stupid people.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: jonks

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Math fails you tech. And there are other new polls showing leads for obama in FL.

Obama should probably defend PA a bit more since it's mccain's lost hope. THe way I see it, the only way mccain wins PA if there is a major shift in 2 weeks anyway.

A couple of things from 2000 and 2004 clearly shows Polls mean nothing

Where's the link to your electoral map again?

This explains everything. Dave doesn't base his electoral map on polls, he just picks choices out of thin air.

Here's the 2004 electoral results:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I...ectoralCollege2004.svg
or
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...dential_election,_2004

Here is the current rcp map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

And?

FL? Obama up:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-418.html

MO? Obama up: http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-545.html

OH? Obama up: http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-400.html

Obama is also up in Virginia between 6-10 pts. McCain needs to win EVERY SINGLE BATTLEGROUND state to win, and Obama is leading in almost all of them. Hell, even North Carolina is dead even and that would also give Obama the win.

The electoral math is anything but troubling for Obama at this point, and a betting man's nightmare if he has money on McCain.

Not sure what your point is by your continued posts on the subject of how good McCain's chances are. It isn't close, it isn't likely, and he needs to pull off a miracle to win.

Uh,
Florida last 2 polls McCain is up.
Missouri: 2 out last 3 polls McCain is up
Ohio 2 out of last 3 polls McCain is up

You are looking at the average, which I don't remember exactly how far RCP goes back, when figuring the average (bad grammar, but you know what I mean).
Clearly you can see McCain is doing better and is on the way up

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: techs

Uh,
Florida last 2 polls McCain is up.
Missouri: 2 out last 3 polls McCain is up
Ohio 2 out of last 3 polls McCain is up

You are looking at the average, which I don't remember exactly how far RCP goes back.
Clearly you can see McCain is doing better and is on the way up

Please don't turn into another Dave. One is already too many. Obama is ahead in most battleground states, and as has already been said, he really only needs to win one of them. This is statistically very very likely. Far more likely than a McCain win. That's why it's not an EC tossup.

 

[Xavier434]

Originally posted by: techs
Uh,
Florida last 2 polls McCain is up.
Missouri: 2 out last 3 polls McCain is up
Ohio 2 out of last 3 polls McCain is up

You are looking at the average, which I don't remember exactly how far RCP goes back.
Clearly you can see McCain is doing better and is on the way up

He is not on the way up in FL. I have friends and family all over this state. Their voting preference is quite mixed and I speak with them all of the time because I only put so much stock into polls. Obama has been and is continuing to gain support all over. The man is campaigning like mad here right now and the fact that Powell has been added as a list of supporters was a major step which sealed the deal for tons of fence sitters. Hell, I have even seen a few McCain supporters jump ship around here thanks to that announcement. Florida in general LOVES Powell and they respect his opinion even more than their own opinion sometimes.

 

[retrospooty]

What RCP is the OP talking about? The one I go to shows Obama still in a commanding lead and still gaining ground. The last 4 changes were states that changed from McCain to Obama.

10/13 Missouri McCain »»» Obama
10/09 Missouri Obama »»» McCain
10/06 Missouri McCain »»» Obama
10/01 Florida McCain »»» Obama
10/01 Ohio McCain »»» Obama

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...bama_vs_mccain/?map=10

 

[Excelsior]

Just use http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ people.

 

[jonks]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: jonks

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: eskimospy

Originally posted by: SP33Demon

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
Math fails you tech. And there are other new polls showing leads for obama in FL.

Obama should probably defend PA a bit more since it's mccain's lost hope. THe way I see it, the only way mccain wins PA if there is a major shift in 2 weeks anyway.

A couple of things from 2000 and 2004 clearly shows Polls mean nothing

Where's the link to your electoral map again?

This explains everything. Dave doesn't base his electoral map on polls, he just picks choices out of thin air.

Here's the 2004 electoral results:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I...ectoralCollege2004.svg
or
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U...dential_election,_2004

Here is the current rcp map:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...obama_vs_mccain/?map=5

And?

FL? Obama up:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-418.html

MO? Obama up: http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-545.html

OH? Obama up: http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-400.html

Obama is also up in Virginia between 6-10 pts. McCain needs to win EVERY SINGLE BATTLEGROUND state to win, and Obama is leading in almost all of them. Hell, even North Carolina is dead even and that would also give Obama the win.

The electoral math is anything but troubling for Obama at this point, and a betting man's nightmare if he has money on McCain.

Not sure what your point is by your continued posts on the subject of how good McCain's chances are. It isn't close, it isn't likely, and he needs to pull off a miracle to win.

Uh,
Florida last 2 polls McCain is up.
Missouri: 2 out last 3 polls McCain is up
Ohio 2 out of last 3 polls McCain is up

You are looking at the average, which I don't remember exactly how far RCP goes back, when figuring the average (bad grammar, but you know what I mean).
Clearly you can see McCain is doing better and is on the way up

Yes, looking at the average which is how RCP works, it aggregates various polls. 538 does the same thing but uses weights based on historical accuracy of the polling companies in those states.

Obama has the following states by 10 pts or more:
CA, OR, WA, NM, (the entire north east from PA to ME), and MN, IA, WI, IL, MI in the middle of the country. That's 260 EV. He needs one state with 9 or more EV to win, since he would win a tie should it come to that. That means he needs to win one of FL, OH, MO, NC, VA, CO, and he's even or up in all of them. McCain is not up outside the MoE in any of them.

 

[techs]

Originally posted by: retrospooty
What RCP is the OP talking about? The one I go to shows Obama still in a commanding lead and still gaining ground. The last 4 changes were states that changed from McCain to Obama.

10/13 Missouri McCain »»» Obama
10/09 Missouri Obama »»» McCain
10/06 Missouri McCain »»» Obama
10/01 Florida McCain »»» Obama
10/01 Ohio McCain »»» Obama

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...bama_vs_mccain/?map=10

Your link is to a map with no toss up states. As I explained RCP uses an average of a number of the most recent polls. So you are not seeing the changes due to the most recent polling. Your still seeing some of the older polling average in.

 

[retrospooty]

Originally posted by: techs

Originally posted by: retrospooty
What RCP is the OP talking about? The one I go to shows Obama still in a commanding lead and still gaining ground. The last 4 changes were states that changed from McCain to Obama.

10/13 Missouri McCain »»» Obama
10/09 Missouri Obama »»» McCain
10/06 Missouri McCain »»» Obama
10/01 Florida McCain »»» Obama
10/01 Ohio McCain »»» Obama

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...bama_vs_mccain/?map=10

Your link is to a map with no toss up states. As I explained RCP uses an average of a number of the most recent polls. So you are not seeing the changes due to the most recent polling. Your still seeing some of the older polling average in.

What are you talking about ... I clicked that on purpose... Using the standard link its still the same story... Obama ahead 286 to 155 ... with only 270 needed to win it.

10/20 Minnesota Leaning Obama »»» Solid Obama
10/19 Montana Solid McCain »»» Leaning McCain
10/17 North Dak Leaning McCain »»» Toss Up
10/15 Florida Leaning Obama »»» Toss Up
10/15 Wash Leaning Obama »»» Solid Obama

http://www.realclearpolitics.c.../maps/obama_vs_mccain/

 

[Stoneburner]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122462257051655701.html

The gold standard has spoked.

Enough of the sky is falling crap.