Massive stock rally today (3/10/2009)

[StageLeft]

March10_2009.jpg

I highlighted the real doozies here. Granted, the articles are more than just the title, but I found the titles fairly representative of the highlights.

Stock Picks for 'Dow 8000' Bounce
BlackRock's Doll: Don't Miss Rare Buying Opportunity
Hirschhorn: 5 Reasons to Get Back Into the Market
Global Pros Say: Market to Bottom This Quarter

We've seen a lot of bottom calling and bullishness all the way down. I don't buy it. I do, for once, hope I'm wrong. Anyhow, I'm marking in my calendar to bump this!

 

[Zebo]

Just to get the suckers back in ....the fundis don't lie and soon drop will be eclipsing any low we have seen so far.....- Tomorrow, Thursday and Friday should be very interesting. I'm shorting after staying out today... The following - SDS, BGZ, SMN and FAZ just a matter of when.... I will watch for precipitation like weather man.

 

[frostedflakes]

Wish I had money to get in at 6.5k... being a poor student sucks.

I'm not very optimistic, but would be fantastic if this really was the bottom.

 

[alien42]

i would not dare attempt to call the exact bottom but after hearing Vikram Pandit's positive comments today i am beginning to see the light at the end of the tunnel.

 

[Zebo]

Anyone who thinks he can time the market with any kind of accuracy in the very short term should be viewed as a lunatic.... It's way to volatile.... But I am predicting a 500 point reversal just keep eyes peeled for that day.... Some good news came today from Citi but this is to be expected when you are given all that cash and banks were making all the money already but nothing to stem tide of main street - job loses, tax receipts dwindling, wage deflation, etc and credit is not coming back to fuel another tempa boom.

 

[spidey07]

Holy Berkshire Hathaway! +20%

 

[ScottyB]

Are all the conservatives going to come out and say this is a vote of confidence for Obama?

 

[spidey07]

Originally posted by: ScottyB
Are all the conservatives going to come out and say this is a vote of confidence for Obama?

He didn't say anything today to tank the market like he's been doing since elected. If he can just shut up we'll be back to 10K!

 

[dullard]

Here are the DJIA's biggest % gain days:

#1) March 1933: +15.3% in a day. Yes, this was near the all time bottom and was near the start of a new rally. But the DJIA stagnated in 1933 and 1934 and didn't really get out of its funk until 1942.
#2) Oct 1931: +14.9%. This was halfway through the 1929-1933 crash.
#3) Oct 1929: +12.3%. This was right at the start of the depression stock market crash.
#4) Sept 1932: +11.4%. This was still in the 1929-1933 crash.
#5) Oct 2008: +11.1%. Well, you know what happened since then.
#6) Oct 2008: +10.9%. Well, you know what happened since then.
#7) Oct 1987: +10.2%. This was a day after black Monday, and the DJIA kept crashing for the next month. Thanks geoffry for pointing out that fact.
#8) Aug 1932: +9.5%. This was near the end of the fall.
#9) Feb 1932: +9.5%. This was still in the 1929-1933 crash.
#10-#13) All were in the 1929-1933 crash.
#15-#16) All were in the 1929-1933 crash.
#18-#20) All were in the 1929-1933 crash.

Today's gain of 5.8% was a bit less than the 6.8% gain of #20.

With the possible exception of #1, all big gains were in the crash phase. Stocks don't rally big during bull markets. Stocks usually rally big when the stock market is still falling.

 

[woodie1]

Profit taking tomorrow will send it back down. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[miketheidiot]

odds are it will go down a bit more, probably into the mid-5k's

I personally think we are nearing the end, with job losses slowing toward the end of the year. this quarter will probably be another bad one though.

 

[Phokus]

Originally posted by: spidey07

Originally posted by: ScottyB
Are all the conservatives going to come out and say this is a vote of confidence for Obama?

He didn't say anything today to tank the market like he's been doing since elected. If he can just shut up we'll be back to 10K!

:roll:

 

[OCGuy]

Woohoo! The economy is saved.

 

[alien42]

Originally posted by: Zebo
Anyone who thinks he can time the market with any kind of accuracy in the very short term should be viewed as a lunatic.... It's way to volatile.... But I am predicting a 500 point reversal just keep eyes peeled for that day.... Some good news came today from Citi but this is to be expected when you are given all that cash and banks were making all the money already but nothing to stem tide of main street - job loses, tax receipts dwindling, wage deflation, etc and credit is not coming back to fuel another tempa boom.

if making money is lunacy then call me crazy. you are the sucker who missed out on today's rally.

 

[jpeyton]

Large single day gains are typical of a market on the decline.

I'd get optimistic if I saw 5 days of 100 point gains vs. 1 day of 500 point gains.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: dullard
Here are the DJIA's biggest % gain days:

#1) March 1933: +15.3% in a day. Yes, this was near the all time bottom and was near the start of a new rally. But the DJIA stagnated in 1933 and 1934 and didn't really get out of its funk until 1942.
#2) Oct 1931: +14.9%. This was halfway through the 1929-1933 crash.
#3) Oct 1929: +12.3%. This was right at the start of the depression stock market crash.
#4) Sept 1932: +11.4%. This was still in the 1929-1933 crash.
#5) Oct 2008: +11.1%. Well, you know what happened since then.
#6) Oct 2008: +10.9%. Well, you know what happened since then.
#7) Oct 1987: +10.2%. The 1980s were a decent decade. But 1987 was flat. It started and ended at about the same point.
#8) Aug 1932: +9.5%. This was near the end of the fall.
#9) Feb 1932: +9.5%. This was still in the 1929-1933 crash.
#10-#13) All were in the 1929-1933 crash.
#15-#16) All were in the 1929-1933 crash.
#18-#20) All were in the 1929-1933 crash.

Today's gain of 5.8% was a bit less than the 6.8% gain of #20.

With the possible exception of #1 and #7, all big gains were in the crash phase. Stocks don't rally big during bull markets. Stocks usually rally big when the stock market is still falling.

Great post, thanks!

 

[Zebo]

Originally posted by: dullard
Here are the DJIA's biggest % gain days:

#1) March 1933: +15.3% in a day. Yes, this was near the all time bottom and was near the start of a new rally. But the DJIA stagnated in 1933 and 1934 and didn't really get out of its funk until 1942.
#2) Oct 1931: +14.9%. This was halfway through the 1929-1933 crash.
#3) Oct 1929: +12.3%. This was right at the start of the depression stock market crash.
#4) Sept 1932: +11.4%. This was still in the 1929-1933 crash.
#5) Oct 2008: +11.1%. Well, you know what happened since then.
#6) Oct 2008: +10.9%. Well, you know what happened since then.
#7) Oct 1987: +10.2%. The 1980s were a decent decade. But 1987 was flat. It started and ended at about the same point.
#8) Aug 1932: +9.5%. This was near the end of the fall.
#9) Feb 1932: +9.5%. This was still in the 1929-1933 crash.
#10-#13) All were in the 1929-1933 crash.
#15-#16) All were in the 1929-1933 crash.
#18-#20) All were in the 1929-1933 crash.

Today's gain of 5.8% was a bit less than the 6.8% gain of #20.

With the possible exception of #1 and #7, all big gains were in the crash phase. Stocks don't rally big during bull markets. Stocks usually rally big when the stock market is still falling.

Interesting Data Dullard. If people buy into recovery they are making a HUGE mistake data confirms it, balance sheets confirm it, daily layoffs confirm it, That Fine ass chick on CNBC said no credit confirms it etc - The only way we are going is down. With that said shorting, day trading is for professionals only. And morally a zero sum gain which produces nothing. Best thing one can do is MM or just stay put wherever they are in a diversified portfolio as professional asset managers say.

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: jpeyton


I'd get optimistic if I saw 5 days of 100 point gains vs. 1 day of 500 point gains.

How are you not optimistic when your mancrush is running the show?

 

[wwswimming]

Originally posted by: frostedflakes
Wish I had money to get in at 6.5k... being a poor student sucks.

I'm not very optimistic, but would be fantastic if this really was the bottom.

don't worry, if you're a student now, once you find a job, stocks
will be quite affordable.

this is a bear market bounce. in addition to the news about Citi's
earnings, the banks have recently released a statement about their
exposure to credit derivative losses.

$587 billion as of Dec. 31, 2008 - up 49% since Sept. 30, 2008.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/mcclat...cclatchy/3184724/print

meanwhile, in Europe
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/fin...EC-dcoument-warns.html

" 'Toxic' EU bank assets total £16.3 trillion"

estimates of US bank losses related to credit derivatives keep growing.
first it was $100 billion, then $200 billion, then $400 billion.

it would be fair to say they "don't exactly have a handle on the situation."

the article that cited the EU losses was scrubbed from their website, but not
before a few financial journalists archived it -

"European Commission officials have estimated that "impaired assets" may amount to 44pc of EU bank balance sheets. The Commission estimates that so-called financial instruments in the 'trading book' total £12.3 trillion (13.7 trillion euros), equivalent to about 33pc of EU bank balance sheets.

In addition, so-called 'available for sale instruments' worth £4trillion (4.5 trillion euros), or 11pc of balance sheets, are also added by the Commission to arrive at the headline figure of £16.3 trillion."

on top of it, governments are not taking the crucial steps to fix the situation - re-regulating the credit derivatives industry (by re-instating Glass-Steagall, a Depression-era law put in place to prevent the abuses that were instrumental in creating the current crisis, and repealed in 1999), investigating, and indicting.

all Obama is doing is bailing out, while the bank robbers run around loose.

Madoff & Stanford are the tip of the iceberg.

 

[mugs]

Originally posted by: Ocguy31

Originally posted by: jpeyton


I'd get optimistic if I saw 5 days of 100 point gains vs. 1 day of 500 point gains.

How are you not optimistic when your mancrush is running the show?

Careful, I got banned for saying something similar.

 

[OCGuy]

Originally posted by: mugs

Originally posted by: Ocguy31

Originally posted by: jpeyton


I'd get optimistic if I saw 5 days of 100 point gains vs. 1 day of 500 point gains.

How are you not optimistic when your mancrush is running the show?

Careful, I got banned for saying something similar.

If pointing out hypocricy was a bannable offense, I think there would be 2 posters left in P&N.

 

[nageov3t]

seemed more like mid-week bottom feeding to me.

 

[TallBill]

lol at all the experts. "time to get back in the market"

If you sold low, then you are a moron.

 

[Special K]

Argh, I just moved money out of a previous employer's 401k on Monday. The way the transfers are scheduled, you always get the next trading day's closing price, no matter when you initiate the request, so you are always looking at 1 day of uncertainty. I have to wait on a physical check to reach me so I can mail it in to Vanguard. I can't stand being partially out of the market right now - this volatility is messing with my head.

 

[StageLeft]

If you sold low, then you are a moron.

Not if it got lower after. Since nothing is writ in stone, it's very difficult to be critical of one's timing. I sold a bunch of stocks at 10k while people were saying buy buy buy. Worked out pretty well. I sold a lot more a lot more recently. Jury is still out on that