Nintendesert
Diamond Member
- Mar 28, 2010
- 7,761
- 5
- 0
Small chance - sort of.
We had an airburst over Tunguska a bit over 100 years ago, and that flattened a large swath of forest. Now we just saw another airburst that caused a good bit of damage.
Yes, those are small objects, with relatively low consequences. Maybe "just" a city lost if they'd hit.
The other half of that coin of risk is the consequences. There's a low risk of it happening during our lifetime, high risk of it happening at all, and potentially-cataclysmic consequences if it does happen.
1) Development of the technology to detect and deflect asteroids would surely lead to benefits for us. Flying people to the Moon and back would seem to have few practical benefits, but it was an excellent PR campaign for the STEM fields. "Defend Earth and humanity from deadly space rocks!" Maybe it won't attract quite the attention as a Moon shot, but it's still something to get people interested in those fields, and likely generate some interesting new technology and scientific knowledge.
2) Who says NASA's budget will be decreased? This could just as well boost their budget considerably. Now, yes, you'd have to watch how that budget is allocated; I'd also hate to see things like the missions to Mars or Jupiter's moons suffer as a result. Those produce valuable findings as well.
....Yet you're here saying that we'd be wasting money if we'd try to prevent that very thing.
So is your ideal route to a good asteroid deflection program to simply wait until something hits us good and hard, wipes out 10% of the population, and then try to figure out how to prevent the problem again? Of course, if our ability to launch any manner of spacecraft was destroyed or disabled during the impact, I guess there'd be no point to even starting research on a deflection project until launch capability was restored. :hmm:
Yeah...momentum's a bitch.
Let's convince a 150-ton rock, moving at 50,000mph, that it really needs to stop moving in the particular straight line that it's on.
That's going to take a lot of effort.
Well government is reactionary. Look at our posture before 9/11 and look at it afterwards. Space rocks are going to be the exact same way. Government has limited resources and right now we're even looking at mandatory cuts and a lot of people being put out of work over the budget. Funding stuff like this is simply not going to happen. That's just the truth of the situation.
I agree with you that eventually it's a 100% chance that it will happen. Sometime. All things geologic and in astronomy eventually hit that point. Our planet will freeze over again, then it'll get really hot and do it over and over again. We'll get hit be a big planet killer eventually. The point is whether it's likely to happen in our lifetime or even anytime remotely close our lifetimes. The answer is highly skewed to the no side.
NASA's budget keeps getting slashed, it's a pittance of what it should be.
As it stands the risk isn't high enough to justify the expenditure from established science. We can't even fund our particle accelerators anymore. :|
I simply feel as things are right now, budget wise overall, scientific budgets and the odds of stuff like this happening more often and the methods we have for even defending against this stuff the money is better spent elsewhere on things that can further advance us and save more lives with that same money.