Market up on strong jobs data.

[FIVR]

People need to feel the pain or they don't learn. For the last 2 years the economy has been coasting on cool-headed Obama + Yellen policy. Tariff talk started up shortly after the election, but the markets stayed on autopilot until the last minute with traders and financial analyst believing right up until the end (before the tariff announcement) that "cooler heads would prevail". Nobody thought Trump could actually crash the market because they figured Trump could never find qualified advisors who would ever allow him to actually implement these totally idiotic tariffs. The problem is he actually did find a "qualified" (yale professor) economic advisor that believed all these idiotic things Trump did, Steve Navarro.

So now we have a literal triumvirate of imbeciles running economic policy (Trump, Navarro and Ross) and the results are what you'd expect: It's an absolute shit show.

 

[MomentsofSanity]

Traders right now:

I was surprised yesterday how calm people were. They were expecting it. Most of my clients were being rational and taking it in stride.

 

[JSt0rm]

I was surprised yesterday how calm people were. They were expecting it. Most of my clients were being rational and taking it in stride.

everybody is expecting it. Massive run up with nothing.

 

[Jhhnn]

People need to feel the pain or they don't learn. For the last 2 years the economy has been coasting on cool-headed Obama + Yellen policy. Tariff talk started up shortly after the election, but the markets stayed on autopilot until the last minute with traders and financial analyst believing right up until the end (before the tariff announcement) that "cooler heads would prevail". Nobody thought Trump could actually crash the market because they figured Trump could never find qualified advisors who would ever allow him to actually implement these totally idiotic tariffs. The problem is he actually did find a "qualified" (yale professor) economic advisor that believed all these idiotic things Trump did, Steve Navarro.

So now we have a literal triumvirate of imbeciles running economic policy (Trump, Navarro and Ross) and the results are what you'd expect: It's an absolute shit show.

Navarro is a sycophant. Ross is a very smart & ruthless guy who's just in it for himself. Gordon Gekko is his idol.

 

[Bitek]

So let's take a guess what the next few days mean.

I'll say, volatile Friday, but maybe closes near flat going into w/e depending on where the mood is at closing bell.

Lots of sit and think over w/e, perhaps continued shit show, but bargain hunters will be coming in soon.

 

[ivwshane]

Not that it matters but I don't blame trump for the rising interest rates. It was bound to happen and it should be happening in a strong economy.

 

[theeedude]

Not that it matters but I don't blame trump for the rising interest rates. It was bound to happen and it should be happening in a strong economy.

To an extent, but deficit financed corporate tax cuts during an already heating up economy create a huge supply of bonds and driving up inflation, which causes rates to rise. So Republicans aren't blameless here.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

I pity the Democrats, these guys have the worst damn luck. In a way I hope they don't win the house or Senate in this upcoming election.

A major market correction will start soon, and if it happens after the Dems make major gains in November, the Republican script basically writes itself: you voted in Dems and the market crashed because of things they did or did not do, or simply because they were there.

And people will eat it up.

 

[ivwshane]

To an extent, but deficit financed corporate tax cuts during an already heating up economy create a huge supply of bonds and driving up inflation, which causes rates to rise. So Republicans aren't blameless here.

Oh don't get me wrong, the economic policies of trump and Republicans is totally fucked up and pretty stupid shit. I just don't want to see the blame get sidetracked by the quibbler's on this forum.

 

[Bitek]

To an extent, but deficit financed corporate tax cuts during an already heating up economy create a huge supply of bonds and driving up inflation, which causes rates to rise. So Republicans aren't blameless here.

Plus the tariffs are a tax on goods that are raising prices across the board.

So as you point out, it's greater pressure on the trend to raise rates faster.

Preferably it's strong wage growth driving inflation, not fool headed policies.

We may not see the effects right away, but we're adding costs and pressure for very questionable benefit

 

[Bitek]

I pity the Democrats, these guys have the worst damn luck. In a way I hope they don't win the house or Senate in this upcoming election.

A major market correction will start soon, and if it happens after the Dems make major gains in November, the Republican script basically writes itself: you voted in Dems and the market crashed because of things they did or did not do, or simply because they were there.

And people will eat it up.

Shame on Dems if they can't win that fight.

Honestly tho, the Senate could be 99-1, and Rs would still want to blame that one D.

They've got to make plays if they want to win

 

[VRAMdemon]

I fully expect him to rail against the Fed and talk about how horrible it is and how it's destroying the wonderful economy that he built. I also fully expect him to do nothing about it of substance and complain that 'the swamp' has his hands tied. The Feds independence is too valuable to him for him to screw with it, so he might complain, but it's virtue signalling to his base rather than notice of intent.

Trump has no vision whatsoever. He would have no vision to see the implications of a non-independent fed. He would only react if he thought his base would blame him for the economic implications rather than the fed.

 

[fskimospy]

I fully expect him to rail against the Fed and talk about how horrible it is and how it's destroying the wonderful economy that he built. I also fully expect him to do nothing about it of substance and complain that 'the swamp' has his hands tied. The Feds independence is too valuable to him for him to screw with it, so he might complain, but it's virtue signalling to his base rather than notice of intent.

Trump has no vision whatsoever. He would have no vision to see the implications of a non-independent fed. He would only react if he thought his base would blame him for the economic implications rather than the fed.

I mean we all predicted this in the past. Stock market goes up? It’s due to his genius. Stock market goes down? Someone else’s fault.

This is true for literally everything in his life so it’s not exactly new. One of the worst of his many bad attributes is that he’s not mature enough to take responsibility for anything.

 

[fleshconsumed]

I fully expect him to rail against the Fed and talk about how horrible it is and how it's destroying the wonderful economy that he built. I also fully expect him to do nothing about it of substance and complain that 'the swamp' has his hands tied. The Feds independence is too valuable to him for him to screw with it, so he might complain, but it's virtue signalling to his base rather than notice of intent.

Trump has no vision whatsoever. He would have no vision to see the implications of a non-independent fed. He would only react if he thought his base would blame him for the economic implications rather than the fed.

Where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, Erdogan, one of Trump's darling dictators, also has trouble understanding cause and effect.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ld-theory-of-inflation-scores-a-win-in-turkey

How are they doing now?
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ates-to-24-in-startling-bid-to-curb-inflation

The phrase "smart people learn using other's mistakes while stupid people learn on their own mistakes" have never been truer. Except Trump is incapable of learning.

 

[VRAMdemon]

I mean we all predicted this in the past. Stock market goes up? It’s due to his genius. Stock market goes down? Someone else’s fault.

This is true for literally everything in his life so it’s not exactly new. One of the worst of his many bad attributes is that he’s not mature enough to take responsibility for anything.

Yep, he will look for a scapegoat. He may huff and puff. Tweet his ass off, but the Board of Governors will blow him off and keep on doing whatever they want to do. They don't work for him. He can't fire them. They don't need his approval to execute monetary policy. Congress doesn't even provide their budget so there's no Executive Branch ability to screw around with the money allocated by Congress.

OTOH he may start off a push from the rabid base to press their Congresspeople for legislation to have the Fed subordinated to the Executive. Considering the large segment of the Right Wing who since the start seem to have despised the very idea of a central bank, and the segments of the right-bubbled public who view the Fed through a prism of conspiracy theory, they could very well make life a headache for the money people. At the very least he now has a convenient scapegoat for when the boom ends and the next bust comes, if not a Democratic Congress.

 

[Bitek]

Whatever happened to that whole "audit the Fed" push the Paulista "libertarians" were pushing for?

 

[Puffnstuff]

So you wanna keep your yob???

 

[Bitek]

Bravo @SlowSpyder. Bravo

 

[hal2kilo]

I was surprised yesterday how calm people were. They were expecting it. Most of my clients were being rational and taking it in stride.

Must be listening to Cramer. Everything is fine.

 

[hal2kilo]

Where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, Erdogan, one of Trump's darling dictators, also has trouble understanding cause and effect.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...ld-theory-of-inflation-scores-a-win-in-turkey

How are they doing now?
https://www.theguardian.com/busines...ates-to-24-in-startling-bid-to-curb-inflation

The phrase "smart people learn using other's mistakes while stupid people learn on their own mistakes" have never been truer. Except Trump is incapable of learning.

There's nothing for him to learn, he knows everything. Weren't you listening?

 

[fleshconsumed]

Bravo @SlowSpyder. Bravo

LOL I didn't realize @SlowSpyder created this thread right at the DJI all time high on October 3rd and that markets have been sliding down ever since. The timing could not have been more ironic.

 

[Commodus]

LOL I didn't realize @SlowSpyder created this thread right at the DJI all time high on October 3rd and that markets have been sliding down ever since. The timing could not have been more ironic.

It's his modus operandi. He seizes on the vaguest hint of an uptick as 'proof' of Trump's divine wisdom, but conveniently forgets that the stock market is not a static thing... and, for that matter, that the economy's performance under Trump has typically been significantly poorer than most of Obama's tenure, even if it's not calamitous.

 

[Paul98]

It was the next day the market tanked, and has dropped quite a bit more since. Today was just another one of those days

 

[repoman0]

SlowSpyder can you post your brilliant financial outlook on here every day? Need to hear when you think things are going well so I can sell everything and vice versa.

 

[PricklyPete]

I’m pretty sure this thread has written itself into an epic OP owned 2018 award.