Major drone attack cripples Saudi oil production

[Jaskalas]

It's like you slept right through the buildup to Iraq. Bloody amazing.

Do tell me, was Iraq attacking vessels in the Straits of Hormuz, was Iraq bombing other nations and shutting down 5% of the world's oil supply?

I do not see Colin Powell providing a false presentation. I see ships taken and oil fields burning. How the hell is that the same as Iraq?

 

[Jhhnn]

More evidence points to Iranian cruise missiles, drones

Technical details emerge from pieces of the cruise missiles and drones. Long story short, the ordinance used in this attack does NOT have the range to originate from Yemen.

You just stated speculation as fact. The stated range of a drone 6 years ago may not be the actual range today. Things change. Nor does any of it particularly matter. I'm pretty sure that the govts from Iraq to the UAE are reconsidering US promises of protection in the event of hostilities with Iran.

 

[Jhhnn]

Do tell me, was Iraq attacking vessels in the Straits of Hormuz, was Iraq bombing other nations and shutting down 5% of the world's oil supply?

I do not see Colin Powell providing a false presentation. I see ships taken and oil fields burning. How the hell is that the same as Iraq?

The attacks on the ships could easily have been contrived black ops bullshit. I suspect that they were.

 

[IronWing]

Do tell me, was Iraq attacking vessels in the Straits of Hormuz, was Iraq bombing other nations and shutting down 5% of the world's oil supply?

I do not see Colin Powell providing a false presentation. I see ships taken and oil fields burning. How the hell is that the same as Iraq?

It's not our problem. If the Sauds can't handle their own shit, after decades of U.S. provided arms and training, f'em.

 

[Bitek]

Do tell me, was Iraq attacking vessels in the Straits of Hormuz, was Iraq bombing other nations and shutting down 5% of the world's oil supply?

I do not see Colin Powell providing a false presentation. I see ships taken and oil fields burning. How the hell is that the same as Iraq?

Regional dispute. We need to stay the fuck out.

MBS is a big boy who can take care of himself.

 

[UNCjigga]

The attacks on the ships could easily have been contrived black ops bullshit. I suspect that they were.

I don’t think it’s likely that US black ops hit Saudi oil on purpose, even if MBS was in on it. That seems like InfoWars level conspiracy bullshit.

Far more likely (relatively, but still very low probability) are the Saudis orchestrating an attack in order to prevent Iranian sanctions relief/JCPOA 2.0 and to drag the US into armed conflict with Iran. This fits with MBS prior MO (see what happened with Qatar in 2017) and the timing of the attack just as we hear Trump Admin and Iran are negotiating on sanctions is suspect. I don’t buy the “launching an attack gives us negotiation leverage” bullshit—that might be some Taliban-level logic but the Iranians are smarter.

Losing half of your oil production for a few weeks is nothing compared to what they’ll get back in terms of military aid, contracts and fees for upgrading bases, defenses and housing more US troops for the next 20-30 years.

 

[darkswordsman17]

I don’t think it’s likely that US black ops hit Saudi oil on purpose, even if MBS was in on it. That seems like InfoWars level conspiracy bullshit.

Far more likely (relatively, but still very low probability) are the Saudis orchestrating an attack in order to prevent Iranian sanctions relief/JCPOA 2.0 and to drag the US into armed conflict with Iran. This fits with MBS prior MO (see what happened with Qatar in 2017) and the timing of the attack just as we hear Trump Admin and Iran are negotiating on sanctions is suspect. I don’t buy the “launching an attack gives us negotiation leverage” bullshit—that might be some Taliban-level logic but the Iranians are smarter.

Losing half of your oil production for a few weeks is nothing compared to what they’ll get back in terms of military aid, contracts and fees for upgrading bases, defenses and housing more US troops for the next 20-30 years.

I'd agree, but, and sadly this will sound like an Infowars thing, I think there might be another option at play here. What about Israel? They get to keep tensions between Muslim countries high, harm one and make the other take the blame for it. It keeps the heat off of their bullshit against the Palestinians (even though its fair, I think its interesting how many people are keen to point out Saudi Arabia's behavior in the Yemen conflict). Plus it likely means that Iran will have to redirect resources that are being levied elsewhere (like say Syria, or Lebanon) just for potential action from the US. Drumming up war would also play into Bibi's rhetoric (he really needs political help right now, looks like they had another parliament vote and his party didn't win enough to form a majority government), and would keep the money flowing to Israel too (as any conflict will involve Israel in some way).

 

[Victorian Gray]

Do tell me, was Iraq attacking vessels in the Straits of Hormuz, was Iraq bombing other nations and shutting down 5% of the world's oil supply?

I do not see Colin Powell providing a false presentation. I see ships taken and oil fields burning. How the hell is that the same as Iraq?

Go on. Go start your fucking war. When are you leaving for the region again?

 

[Victorian Gray]

You forget that at his core he's still a righty. Granted he's a woke righty but he's still a righty. At the core of a righty is their desire to get revenge for 9/11 and they will back any attack on the middle east regardless of their connection to 9/11. Believing a president unquestionably, who holds similar mental deficiencies, is a matter of patriotism to them.

9/11 and I'm sure moonbeam can speak to this, shook the conservative mental fear centers so badly that it damaged their perception of reality itself.

He's not particulaly "woke". He mostly doesn't like Trump, likes the idea of universal incomes and that's about all I can think of at the moment. Other than that he seems like a fairly typical modern American conservative.

 

[emperus]

I wish the media wasn't so gung-ho when it comes to war. They let the US down w/ the Iraq war. The news conference today on aid to Saudi Arabia was just weird. It seemed the military doesn't fully believe it was Iran. The media needs to step up and do some REAL reporting. Too many actors in the middle wast looking to drag us into war.

 

[Victorian Gray]

I wish the media wasn't so gung-ho when it comes to war. They let the US down w/ the Iraq war. The news conference today on aid to Saudi Arabia was just weird. It seemed the military doesn't fully believe it was Iran. The media needs to step up and do some REAL reporting. Too many actors in the middle wast looking to drag us into war.

War is good for business, including mainstream media. People love to watch big explosions on their tv screens.

 

[Jhhnn]

War is good for business, including mainstream media. People love to watch big explosions on their tv screens.

War with Iran wouldn't be good for any of our Persian Gulf friends. All of their oil & gas facilities are extremely vulnerable to very simple drones Iran can pump out by the thousands. Their losses & cash flow would go to Hell in a hurry. Insurance on ships is null & void in a war zone, so commercial shipping will stay away. A quarter of the world's oil consumption passes thru the strait of Hormuz.

OTOH, Trump admin insider speculation on oil futures would pay off handsomely. I figure Wilbur Ross has probably figured out a way to get away with it w/o being caught. The price of gas doesn't even register on the lifestyles of the people at the top.

 

[UNCjigga]

Well, looks like troops are being deployed to Saudi Arabia.

 

[theeedude]

American troops being used as human shields for a dictator's cash cow.

 

[Puffnstuff]

Well, looks like troops are being deployed to Saudi Arabia.

The Iranians shouldn't have attacked their assets.

U.S. to deploy troops to help with Saudi Arabia's defense

President Trump has approved the deployment of U.S. forces that will be defensive in nature

www.cbsnews.com

 

[Jhhnn]

The Iranians shouldn't have attacked their assets.

U.S. to deploy troops to help with Saudi Arabia's defense

President Trump has approved the deployment of U.S. forces that will be defensive in nature

www.cbsnews.com

Heh. That's what's known as a token deployment. The truth is that nobody can say where the attack originated because it wasn't even detected by radar. Small drones & cruise missiles are designed to be very hard to detect with radar. They don't have to pack much punch, either, when the targets are as flammable as oil & gas facilities.

It's a wake up call to all our friends in the Persian Gulf- The US can't protect you. Don't let them talk you into doing something really stupid. They just called Trump's bluff.

 

[Bitek]

Heh. That's what's known as a token deployment. The truth is that nobody can say where the attack originated because it wasn't even detected by radar. Small drones & cruise missiles are designed to be very hard to detect with radar. They don't have to pack much punch, either, when the targets are as flammable as oil & gas facilities.

It's a wake up call to all our friends in the Persian Gulf- The US can't protect you. Don't let them talk you into doing something really stupid. They just called Trump's bluff.

This is the truth and the real danger here.

Time and time again Trump has made big, blustery threats, only to back down and walk back later.

Syria?
Trade war with Mexico?
Trade war with China?
Russian sanctions?
Congressional shut down?
North Korea?
Just the fact he can't fire his people face to face?

He's completely full of shit. Ultimately a draft dodging coward who talks tough when he's safe, but quickly retreats from actual confrontation.

The magats are blind to it, but everyone with a brain can see it, including the Iranians.

Additionally, he's very weak politically and acting scared. He'll be very easily to take advantage of and manipulate.

They will be emboldened to test lines, as they know he will cave, but make big threats about the next line to cross.

Danger is, when does she eventually lash out and overreact?

Bad bad bad

 

[K1052]

American troops being used as human shields for a dictator's cash cow.

Since apparently the Saudis are either unable or too lazy to protect their own vital facilities with the ocean of military hardware they've bought from us I guess this is the response. Anyway I doubt Iran would try they same exact thing again, they seem more innovative than a lot of people gave them credit for.

 

[K1052]

Heh. That's what's known as a token deployment. The truth is that nobody can say where the attack originated because it wasn't even detected by radar. Small drones & cruise missiles are designed to be very hard to detect with radar. They don't have to pack much punch, either, when the targets are as flammable as oil & gas facilities.

It's a wake up call to all our friends in the Persian Gulf- The US can't protect you. Don't let them talk you into doing something really stupid. They just called Trump's bluff.

This one is on the Saudis (MBS) and Israel for pressing the US to crack down on Iran. They got what they wanted but turns out there are consequences. Really I'd have little confidence that the Saudis can actually do much of anything with their big shiny military. If they did get into a war with the Iranians they'd quickly bungle it and scream for our intervention.

 

[amenx]

Since apparently the Saudis are either unable or too lazy to protect their own vital facilities with the ocean of military hardware they've bought from us I guess this is the response. Anyway I doubt Iran would try they same exact thing again, they seem more innovative than a lot of people gave them credit for.

The military hardware they have is mainly for conventional air/land attacks. There are air defense systems focused along the gulf and to the south, but not sure how effective they can be vs low flying cruise missiles. The area to the north of the Abqaiq/Khurais facilities, where the least expected threats may emanate from, were not adequately defended. This and other weak areas I believe are where U.S. forces are heading, to establish better defenses against drone/cruise missile threats. This is not a large scale battle plan like in the last couple gulf wars.

 

[Jhhnn]

This one is on the Saudis (MBS) and Israel for pressing the US to crack down on Iran. They got what they wanted but turns out there are consequences. Really I'd have little confidence that the Saudis can actually do much of anything with their big shiny military. If they did get into a war with the Iranians they'd quickly bungle it and scream for our intervention.

It's on Trump & his GOP enablers. War with Iran would wreck the world economy & destroy the energy export capabilities of all the gulf states who'd side with us. Iran's capabilities in that regard would be destroyed as well but not their ability to wage war. Iran's strategic advantage is enormous. It's a huge country with a population of 80M & national character unlike any other.Their population centers & production facilities are well inland. Their asymmetrical warfare strategy is obviously effective & they'll fight like Hell if attacked, bet on it.

 

[Bitek]

Since apparently the Saudis are either unable or too lazy to protect their own vital facilities with the ocean of military hardware they've bought from us I guess this is the response. Anyway I doubt Iran would try they same exact thing again, they seem more innovative than a lot of people gave them credit for.

Why put their money, hardware and people at risk when dumbass Trumpistan will do it for you?

 

[Jhhnn]

The military hardware they have is mainly for conventional air/land attacks. There are air defense systems focused along the gulf and to the south, but not sure how effective they can be vs low flying cruise missiles. The area to the north of the Abqaiq/Khurais facilities, where the least expected threats may emanate from, were not adequately defended. This and other weak areas I believe are where U.S. forces are heading, to establish better defenses against drone/cruise missile threats. This is not a large scale battle plan like in the last couple gulf wars.

That's highly inaccurate. There's a huge US military base in Kuwait & an international airport. Nobody saw a thing on conventional radar, nor did commercial shipping in the gulf. There's basically no defense against small terrain hugging drones & cruise missiles other than close in computer guided gunnery as employed by our Navy. They're invisible to radar until they get very close & are difficult to detect even then. In a real war, radar installations would obviously be among the first targets.

 

[Jhhnn]

Why put their money, hardware and people at risk when dumbass Trumpistan will do it for you?

I truly doubt that. Virtually all their money comes in thru the strait of Hormuz. They may not have realized until now that they're in the front line trenches for American Imperialism. Our Israeli friends would probably love it, however.

 

[amenx]

There's basically no defense against small terrain hugging drones & cruise missiles other than close in computer guided gunnery as employed by our Navy. They're invisible to radar until they get very close & are difficult to detect even then. In a real war, radar installations would obviously be among the first targets.

This my impression too. So basically many countries, even those as well equipped as the Saudis face a similar dilemma. The difference is, the Iranians being in the middle of a target rich region can create much more havoc than others.

Still I presume U.S. troops/engineers being sent to Saudi are going to work on anti-projectile defenses of some sort. May be expensive for the Saudis, but presumably they will ring all their vital oil installations with similar defenses as deployed by the US navy.