Linus Torvalds: Discrete GPUs are going away

[Leyawiin]

Is development of the tech need for discrete GPUs totally divorced from that needed for integrated graphics or consoles? If it is I can see them fading away, but if the development of the basic design for all of them in tied together (at least in some fashion) there will always be a niche that will pay for the more powerful discrete GPUs. They'll be made because its not like reinventing the wheel just for them.

 

[Paul98]

LOL, yeah... no. not even worth talking about

 

[Cerb]

Nothing new, there.

It's a question of when good enough and cheap enough will overlap for enough of the market that dGPUs will not be profitable as mainstream devices. Nothing that should be news-worthy, really. The dGPU market has been getting smaller and smaller for over a decade...basically, ever since Intel started including IGPs in chipsets.

APUs, Iris, Denver, etc., on-package RAM...they're all planning for that eventual reality. Except for the people with 4 cards in their PCs today, the rest of us won't care when it starts to happen.

whatever linus, there hasn't been a single real integrated design yet.

especially calling the consoles igp's is weird, they're more like a dedicated gpu with a little cpu parasiting on the memory.

That's pretty much what AMD has been doing since Llano.

Linus seems like a bit of a dick to me.

No, to everyone. Pretty much every long-term successful FOSS project is headed up by such a person.

Given a power supply of 300W, and sufficient cooling, and a given process technology, I just don't see IGPs catching up to the performance of dGPUs. Ever.

They don't have to. They need to become sufficiently small a market, and thus sufficiently expensive, that it's not worth developing new dedicated GPUs. It will happen within our lifetimes. Not too soon, but past maybe 10 years out, the timing of it is anybody's guess.

 

[amenx]

As long as there are people who are willing to pay to have the best, there will be discrete GPUs.

All the more true now and in the future as 4K become the norm.

I agree. Furthermore, game studios and GPU makers will continue to work together to create games or game features/effects that are one step ahead of IGP capabilities.

 

[Silverforce11]

I agree. Furthermore, game studios and GPU makers will continue to work together to create games or game features/effects that are one step ahead of IGP capabilities.

Reminds me of those saying for years now that we have more than enough CPU power for the typical usage of office, net surfing and social networking.

Well, maybe they all thought these tasks would remain as is and stagnate, never inventing new features, adding new content etc. If we're all still on Pentium 4s, a lot of websites now would lag like crazy.

Same principle will apply to games. Game devs love to push graphics boundaries if they are able to.

 

[Mand]

I'll believe it as soon as AMD and Nvidia stop spending hundreds of millions of dollars on dGPU development.

 

[Sohaltang]

This may be true if you think 1080p is the end all be all. The best of the best GPU right now can't truely handle 4k. Soon enough we will see 4k monitors at 120hz that will need something like 4 780ti's to run at an acceptable rate. I don't seen any igpu capable of that in the next 15 years. By then it will be 8k or virtual reality. Igpu is fine for average desktop user. Gamers will keep the dgpu alive for a long long time baring a tech revolution

 

[el etro]

Would be good if true. Nor AMD nor Nvidia would die because their tech will come inside the CPU's. Problem is how much of performance you can pack in a 150w TDP headroom for both CPU and GPU. The Best GPU around begs 250w only for it, and its system begs more 150 watts. The challenge for the engineers will be pack as much GPU performance as possible with bigger restrictions of die space size and TDP.

 

[NostaSeronx]

Pure CPUs and pure GPUs will always exist in the consumer market. Unless, we are going for a PCoIP world.

 

[SlickR12345]

WTF? There is always going to be future for dGPU's as long as graphics keep improving. When we reach such realistic graphics and details like real life and there is nothing more to improve in graphics, then IGPU's can take over in several years when they get good enough.

Of course we are probably 20 years away from real life type graphics in games and dGPU's will always have the advantage since they aren't limited by size, power or cooling.

I mean if CPU's start becoming the size of a GPU and start having massive coolers is the time when they are going to start getting out of business themselves.

So I don't see how GPU's are dying, in fact we might see CPU's dying first, as GPU's are way more scalable and multithreaded and are able to run things way faster than a CPU.

 

[Erenhardt]

I think 200Watt APU is the mainstream future - just like consoles are good enough for majority of people. That doesn't mean dgpu will be dead. There will be dgpus which will be powered by the same tech that is inside APU but in different form factor for those who play at high resolution or VR systems.

7790 is only 90W TDP card and is adequate for 1080p. Heck, 7850 is 130W TDP, which leaves 70W for the CPU.

Its really possible to build quite potent 200W gaming PC with todays 28nm tech.
The main problem with APU performance for AMD is terrible (compared to dgpu) memory bandwidth, but there are solutions on the horizon that are going to fix it.

 

[naukkis]

WTF? There is always going to be future for dGPU's as long as graphics keep improving. When we reach such realistic graphics and details like real life and there is nothing more to improve in graphics, then IGPU's can take over in several years when they get good enough.

You didn't get what Linus was saying. You can't separate CPU and GPU any more when simulation models gets more realistic, it's just matter of time when iGPU will be better alternative to separate GPU.

Future will be massive iGPU with hbm memory, only thing that holds iGPU's today is lack of memory bandwith and that problem is solvable.

 

[ShintaiDK]

When the market shrinks, some manufacturers will get out and the remaining ones will be forced to raise prices as they chase limited sales. Doesn't seem like a terribly complicated market dynamic.

Discrete GPUs will not be going away any time soon, but they've become increasingly niche market components.

There are only 2 dGPU chip designers left. Not much to take from.

This is from Q1 2014. Note the YoY change:

Overall dGPU development since IGP got more focus:

 

[ShintaiDK]

I'd really like to know how you did the math on that one.

A direct node shrink gives around 40-50% size and power reduction.

 

[Cerb]

Reminds me of those saying for years now that we have more than enough CPU power for the typical usage of office, net surfing and social networking.

Well, maybe they all thought these tasks would remain as is and stagnate, never inventing new features, adding new content etc. If we're all still on Pentium 4s, a lot of websites now would lag like crazy.

Same principle will apply to games. Game devs love to push graphics boundaries if they are able to.

*woosh*

That capability will increase, and demands for performance will increase, is not in question. They will. It's how long it will take before it will cheap enough, and how long until even high-end GPUs run cool enough, to put the equivalent of a midrange dGPU on the CPU. Low-end GPUs are already covered by IGP, and the market for them basically exists for adding displays, dealing with pre-Haswell Intel video drivers, and replacing displays if connectors break. In 2009, just 5 years ago, a $50 card was worth getting over any IGP of the day. That price point replaced by IGP will only creep upwards.

 

[Vesku]

Not too soon, but past maybe 10 years out, the timing of it is anybody's guess.

Timing is difficult to gauge AMD and Nvidia haven't yet created a FPU cruncher completely devoid of GPU specific characteristics ala Intel's Knight series, that would be a sure sign that consumer GPUs are going away within years not decade+.

 

[WelshBloke]

I'll believe it as soon as AMD and Nvidia stop spending hundreds of millions of dollars on dGPU development.

Which they will do as soon as the masses stop buying dGPUs.

People keep saying that there's always going to be a market for dGPUs, but when that market gets small enough because iGPUs are good enough for the masses then there'll be two choices.

Either dGPUs go the way of the dodo or you pay an absolutely prohibitive price for them.

Nvidia and AMD aren't going to release high end hardware that they are going to lose money on just for S&Gs.

 

[antihelten]

Agreed. If anything I would predict a resurgence in graphics cards as VR and 4K take off. Need a lot of GPU muscle to render a game at >90fps in 2560x1600 or 4K in the near future. VR will be a huge driver for graphics card sales.

And Mr. Torvalds is known for shooting off at the mouth half-cocked.

Funny that you (and others) should mention VR, since although it will arguably drive discrete GPU sales in the short term, in the long term it might actually be the death knell of discrete GPUs. This is due to the fact that VR enables a rendering technique known as foveated rendering, which can lower the GPU demands by a factor of 10 or more.

 

[AtenRa]

Both schools are right but it all depends on AMD and NVIDIA and what road they are willing to pursue.

 

[WelshBloke]

Both schools are right but it all depends on AMD and NVIDIA and what road they are willing to pursue.

Well at the moment AMD and Nvidia both seem to be trying to diversify away from dGPUs.

AMD have their APUs and Nvidia are chasing the mobile market.

 

[redzo]

IGPs have been good enough for the majority of people since intel started flooding the market with northbridge IGPs. Right now the difference is that APU(intel or amd) gpu performance went up a little. Nothing has changed.

No matter how efficient the design of an apu is, it will never be able to compete with a dGPU which is twice the die size and not TDP limited. Yes, the dGPU market will shrink a little due to the above little performance increase, but saying that dGPUs will go away is totaly miscalculated. It did not happen in the past, it will not happen now.

Torvalds seems rather fascinated by the APU design and completely looses focus regarding predictions.

 

[NTMBK]

Fun to see the same old "you'll never cool it/get enough bandwidth" arguments getting trotted out. If anyone has any doubts, just look at Knight's Landing. A standalone, socketed chip which is effectively a GPU, with massive amounts of fast stacked RAM on the package acting as a cache and backed up by socketed DDR4 for capacity. And if it's anything like it's predecessor, expect a >200W TDP.

 

[beginner99]

This may be true if you think 1080p is the end all be all. The best of the best GPU right now can't truely handle 4k. Soon enough we will see 4k monitors at 120hz that will need something like 4 780ti's to run at an acceptable rate. I don't seen any igpu capable of that in the next 15 years. By then it will be 8k or virtual reality. Igpu is fine for average desktop user. Gamers will keep the dgpu alive for a long long time baring a tech revolution

This. His console example is ridiculous. They can't even output 1080p 30fps consistently and with the 4K push...Even for 2560x1440 you need a lot of GPU power to get 60fps. I will be years till an iGPU is capable of this.

The only problem I see is that being able to game at high resolution and FPS has nothing to to with economics. So I like in many other areas I see a reduction in quality coming simply due to cost constraints.

 

[WelshBloke]

Yes, the dGPU market will shrink a little due to the above little performance increase, but saying that dGPUs will go away is totaly miscalculated. It did not happen in the past, it will not happen now.

Out of interest what price do you think is sustainable for the dGPU market?

As integrated solutions eat up the low to middle end the high end dGPUs won't stay the same price. They will have to make up those lost profits from the low and middle end.

That increased pricing is going to further erode the market for dGPUs exacerbating the problem.

 

[Silverforce11]

*woosh*

That capability will increase, and demands for performance will increase, is not in question. They will. It's how long it will take before it will cheap enough, and how long until even high-end GPUs run cool enough, to put the equivalent of a midrange dGPU on the CPU. Low-end GPUs are already covered by IGP, and the market for them basically exists for adding displays, dealing with pre-Haswell Intel video drivers, and replacing displays if connectors break. In 2009, just 5 years ago, a $50 card was worth getting over any IGP of the day. That price point replaced by IGP will only creep upwards.

woosh?

4 years ago, people said iGPU is going to obsolete dGPU. They claim the same argument as you, that soon iGPU will be powerful enough to compare to equivalent mid-range dGPU and thus, there will be longer a need for it.

Except, the equivalent mid-range dGPU always increases.

5 years from now, APUs & Intel CPU will probably match a GTX760 or R280 class performance. Would it suddenly be powerful enough to obsolete dGPU? Nope. 5 years from now, mid-range would be much much more powerful and 4K will be the norm, at which point a 760 or R280 class APU still won't be able to handle it.

What about further out, 10 years from now? Same thing applies. 8K may start to come on board or even VR. Your APU with its TitanZ class performance wouldn't be enough for real PC gamers.

20 years from now.. what's the difference exactly? You don't get that gamers demand more and game devs will keep on making more and more demanding games, display tech keeps pushing more pixels etc etc. We'll get to a point where there's entire holodecks like on Star Trek. Guess what? A discrete would still be faster.

The whole idea of iGPU replacing low end is true, sure, but the new dGPU low end is still faster than iGPU. When next gen iGPU comes and matches the current low-end, a new low end is created. Nothing has changed, only the pricepoint for superior performance.

Which comes back to my point, as long as there are people who are willing to pay top money for the best performance, discrete GPU will always hold a huge advantage and won't be obsolete.