Question Let's talk tough turkey - what if mining more-or-less "never" subsides? Strategies for getting GPUs?

[VirtualLarry]

Let's look at this picture semi-realistically. While earnings for mining ETH may take a hit in July due to EIP-1559, other up-and-coming coins such as Ravencoin (KAWPOW on NH), and Conflux (Octopus on NH) may "sustain" the mining boom. Also, BTC and ETC are up WAY higher than they were in 2017, and highly unlikely to drop down to "unprofitable" levels again. Not to mention, actual silicon and component / substrate supply shortages means that, at least in the near term of the next few years, GPU mfg is unlikely to keep up with gamer demand, nevermind mining. And the rise of "botting and scalping" - when attempting to purchase the few GPUs that come up, you're most likely not even competing with humans for those cards.

 

[simas]

As of now I suspect there is no reason but if things got really extreme couldn’t ISPs block mining stuff? I guess a vpn could solve that. I don’t know much about mining so this could be an ignorant question.

it is not seen as a problem yet by any real powers (aka state). if it is, laws would come up with "solution" and lawyers/enforcement will take care of the rest.

remember people 'sharing' their music collection? "fair use" blah-blah-blah, "i own it and it is mine to do what I want with it" blah-blah-blah , etc . come DMCA , few hundred letters/lawsuits to people doing this and entire thing very _quickly_ died out. very easy to do something similar to crypto, detect that activity, claim that you are doing it "unregistered" , warn you first, penalize you afterwards.

or, another example is that you can do whatever you want with your property (including growing things on your land), but if you are getting into producing/generating substances state wants to control, you will have very unfriendly, heavily armed, and ready to shoot , men literally breaking down your door SWAT style if you grow/manufacture things state does not want created. Good luck arguing 'fair use' or "its my right" then , assuming you actually lived through it by hitting the floor fast and keeping hands exactly where twitchy finger people could see it every second...


with the power to tax, comes the power to destroy (dont remember who) .

I dont like crypto (honestly think it is a very stupid fad), but I like the state stepping in hard even less - so hopefully it does not come to that.

 

[PingSpike]

It will hurt the DIY market the most (already has), the top tier gaming market will go mostly consoles. Prebuilts are one way out but we're already at the point where people are buying graphics cards that come in a box shaped like a desktop PC. The price on those will go up as well.

The price of the hobby will go up and the market will shrink some accordingly. But I think we'll also see nvidia more aggressively segment. They do not want to kill their existing markets. I think Larry said he was afraid they would start locking the cards to the prebuilt that they came with. They could do that but I've seen weird Chinese motherboards with a GTX 1060 just built right into the board. The iGPU might become more important in this space just for that reason.

Or maybe everyone will just pay more money?

 

[IntelUser2000]

AMD needs to re-release the Radeon VII.

AMD chose to use only a 256-bit interface for the RX 6800, because the Infinity Cache is doing a good job of it. If they want to make a card with much better mining performance, they'd get GDDR6X on a 384-bit, or heck 512-bit interface. 19.5GT/s GDDR6X on a 512-bit interface is 150MH/s+!

Radeon VII was abandoned since HBM is not economical. 2TB/s bandwidth equals 230MH/s+ so maybe one day.

AMD with it's Infinity Cache does a much better job of curbing mining performance. They don't even need to anger anyone since it's efficiently performing better in games.

 

[Leeea]

AMD with it's Infinity Cache does a much better job of curbing mining performance.

Not just that, but it likely is considerably cheaper for them to manufacture. The type of memory used in the cache is fault tolerate, so if a defect appears in that part of the silicon, they can just down bin the part and still sell it.

The high speed memory interfaces use a lot of space on the silicon, are not fault tolerant, do not scale well with smaller manufacturing processes, require more pcb layers, more noise filtering, and require more watts. What makes a great mining card will come with a price premium soon enough.

The AMD design is clever more then anything. Odds are they are going to continue to double down on it. As they do, we will continue to see a divergence of mining cards and gaming cards.

 

[moonbogg]

If mining doesn't let up, I think PC gaming will simply revolve around integrated graphics, e-sports titles and other easy to run games. "High-end" gaming will be strictly console with more emphasis on and support for mouse and keyboard to take up the slack from people who previously gamed on PC. Simply put, PC gaming will not be replaced by console, but it will migrate to console. Consoles are a relative safe haven from mining and can benefit from an increase in supply since miners aren't buying them all up.

If mining doesn't crash, then PC gaming as we know it is simply done. There's just no way around it. Even if they build new fabs and increase supply by 10X, I am certain that miners will simply buy up all the GPUs instantly. They have no limit and will simply buy all of them because profits scale with numbers of GPUs. Consoles will benefit from that increased supply though and gamers will be able to buy them. This might not be a terrible thing.

Consoles are more powerful and capable than ever and TV's are excellent at high refresh gaming these days. I can see PC gaming migrating to a console environment where that one ecosystem will simply cater to both console gamers and former PC gamers.
This would be fine with GPU makers as well. They will always sell as many cards as they can possibly make and at much higher prices than gamers were ever willing to pay. With VR taking off with it's standalone headsets and consoles and TV's being better than ever, I am oddly optimistic even if PC gaming dies. That high-end gaming demand will not go unserved.

EDIT: I must say more. With PC gamers migrating to console, I can easily see Nvidia and AMD still catering to high-end gamers by making special "enthusiast" grade consoles, like the PS4 pro version but better. If the demand is there, they will make them. Consoles may be nearly indistinguishable from a high-end gaming PC, but focused on gaming of course. It would benefit from a stable and consistent development platform, allowing for better optimization and ease of development. The driver nightmare would be over for developers, or at least greatly eased. The death of PC gaming may be exactly what gaming needs. With death comes new life. You need both, and to be quite honest, I think we're due for a big shakeup in the gaming world. This could be the catalyst that makes things interesting again. Gaming could actually be exciting again.
I hope ETH shoots to the moon so hard it blows a hole through it. The most exciting time to watch and see what happens is when you have no idea what's going to happen. I say bring it.

 

[Red Squirrel]

I think eventually the market will adapt. TSMC and Intel are both planing to build fabs. Other companies may start to build their own as well. The biggest issue right now is there is just not enough silicon fab capacity to meet demand and production in general is just down. Once a couple more fabs can ramp up hopefully it will be possible to buy hardware again, and at normal prices.

I feel until that happens though, it's a bad time to be buying any kind of computer hardware. I've been itching to do a VM server upgrade so I sometimes like looking at my options, either server grade stuff, or desktop grade, and it's crazy how everything is just out of stock or crazy expensive right now. Definitely a bad time to build and it will probably be until the new fabs are operational.

 

[Insert_Nickname]

Once a couple more fabs can ramp up hopefully it will be possible to buy hardware again, and at normal prices.

It's kind of hopeless at the moment. When I saw the latest mining news out of China, I quickly bought a 2TB NVMe SSD just to be on the safe side. That should set me up for the next 5 years.

That's right. Mining is spreading to storage...

https://www.techradar.com/news/this...tentially-cause-an-ssd-or-hard-drive-shortage

I don't see this ending before the incentive to mine is reduced in some form. Which may take a while.

 

[DeathReborn]

If mining doesn't let up, I think PC gaming will simply revolve around integrated graphics, e-sports titles and other easy to run games. "High-end" gaming will be strictly console with more emphasis on and support for mouse and keyboard to take up the slack from people who previously gamed on PC. Simply put, PC gaming will not be replaced by console, but it will migrate to console. Consoles are a relative safe haven from mining and can benefit from an increase in supply since miners aren't buying them all up.

If mining doesn't crash, then PC gaming as we know it is simply done. There's just no way around it. Even if they build new fabs and increase supply by 10X, I am certain that miners will simply buy up all the GPUs instantly. They have no limit and will simply buy all of them because profits scale with numbers of GPUs. Consoles will benefit from that increased supply though and gamers will be able to buy them. This might not be a terrible thing.

Consoles are more powerful and capable than ever and TV's are excellent at high refresh gaming these days. I can see PC gaming migrating to a console environment where that one ecosystem will simply cater to both console gamers and former PC gamers.
This would be fine with GPU makers as well. They will always sell as many cards as they can possibly make and at much higher prices than gamers were ever willing to pay. With VR taking off with it's standalone headsets and consoles and TV's being better than ever, I am oddly optimistic even if PC gaming dies. That high-end gaming demand will not go unserved.

EDIT: I must say more. With PC gamers migrating to console, I can easily see Nvidia and AMD still catering to high-end gamers by making special "enthusiast" grade consoles, like the PS4 pro version but better. If the demand is there, they will make them. Consoles may be nearly indistinguishable from a high-end gaming PC, but focused on gaming of course. It would benefit from a stable and consistent development platform, allowing for better optimization and ease of development. The driver nightmare would be over for developers, or at least greatly eased. The death of PC gaming may be exactly what gaming needs. With death comes new life. You need both, and to be quite honest, I think we're due for a big shakeup in the gaming world. This could be the catalyst that makes things interesting again. Gaming could actually be exciting again.
I hope ETH shoots to the moon so hard it blows a hole through it. The most exciting time to watch and see what happens is when you have no idea what's going to happen. I say bring it.

Like it or loathe it I think some will do deals with a streaming service (Stadia, XCloud, GeForce Now etc) for their "AAA" games.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

Some really off the wall thinking here: Imagine if Valve turned Steam into a PC gaming prebuilt or DIY storefront. Maybe have Valve/Steam branded GPUs (basically an AIB for NV or AMD) that can only be sold to validated Steam profiles.

Essentially, Valve uses it's 800 pound gorilla status to secure and sell gaming components to folks that are proven gamers on their platform.

It sounds kinda nutty, but an organization like Valve really has the most to lose from PC Gaming getting crimped.

 

[ultimatebob]

Some really off the wall thinking here: Imagine if Valve turned Steam into a PC gaming prebuilt or DIY storefront. Maybe have Valve/Steam branded GPUs (basically an AIB for NV or AMD) that can only be sold to validated Steam profiles.

Essentially, Valve uses it's 800 pound gorilla status to secure and sell gaming components to folks that are proven gamers on their platform.

It sounds kinda nutty, but an organization like Valve really has the most to lose from PC Gaming getting crimped.

They already tried a "Steam Machine", and it did terribly. They might do better if they try something closer to a more traditional Windows gaming PC, though.

 

[NTMBK]

There is a LOT of PC gaming that doesn't need an RTX 3090. Crusader Kings, Dwarf Fortress, Hearthstone, Minecraft, Terraria, Hades. It's not just about the latest graphics benchmark.

 

[Red Squirrel]

Maybe this will push game devs to be more efficient in their coding. Go back to the 2000-2010 era. Games still looked decently good, and required a GPU in the <1GB range. Now you have games requiring 10GB+, but is that really justified? I'm sure devs can use lot of shortcuts to offload lot of stuff to the GPU that could instead just be done in a more efficient way code wise.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

They already tried a "Steam Machine", and it did terribly. They might do better if they try something closer to a more traditional Windows gaming PC, though.

-IMO that demonstrates that they're willing to get involved in hardware if they feel their business is under threat.

But yes, the idea would essentially be Valve/Steam stepping into the space occupied by things like Alienware or even into the space occupied by Sapphire and EVGA...


In the current climate, they would really be hailed as saviors of PC gaming...

 

[Insert_Nickname]

There is a LOT of PC gaming that doesn't need an RTX 3090. Crusader Kings, Dwarf Fortress, Hearthstone, Minecraft, Terraria, Hades. It's not just about the latest graphics benchmark.

Thankfully. But the focus is always on graphics for some odd reason. Not gameplay.

Actually, some of my favourite games are pushing 20 years old, so they'll happily (and do) run on a potato.

 

[simas]

I think eventually the market will adapt. TSMC and Intel are both planing to build fabs. Other companies may start to build their own as well. The biggest issue right now is there is just not enough silicon fab capacity to meet demand and production in general is just down. Once a couple more fabs can ramp up hopefully it will be possible to buy hardware again, and at normal prices.

As long as this activity is highly profitable - supply is irrelevant, it does not matter if manufacturing capacity doubles, triples, or quadruples . the greed will win and all of the people who are engaged in this will declare "i want mine!" and just buy up more.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

As long as this activity is highly profitable - supply is irrelevant, it does not matter if manufacturing capacity doubles, triples, or quadruples . the greed will win and all of the people who are engaged in this will declare "i want mine!" and just buy up more.

Maybe however I doubt it. If everyone who wants let’s say a 3090 or 3080 or 3070 or whatever has the ability to buy one then they’d have one regardless of mining or whatever.
Question is as of now we have all been assuming mining will be a flash in the pan type brief thing where there would be some epic market crash. Maybe that isn’t true and mining will continue thus giving huge incentives to companies to make good gaming cards and excellent mining cards.

 

[simas]

Maybe however I doubt it. If everyone who wants let’s say a 3090 or 3080 or 3070 or whatever has the ability to buy one then they’d have one regardless of mining or whatever.
Question is as of now we have all been assuming mining will be a flash in the pan type brief thing where there would be some epic market crash. Maybe that isn’t true and mining will continue thus giving huge incentives to companies to make good gaming cards and excellent mining cards.

that ability exists now and always existed at all times - just at different prices vs MSRP. Those who want to play today using say 3090 , can get it today off e-bay.
what mining experiment in greed gives us is great example of how with unlimited demand, supply is irrelevant to get to MSRP prices..

 

[VirtualLarry]

Speaking of mining on consoles, don't consoles have web browsers? Can't some sites "mine" when you point your web browser at them? Can console system web browsers access their GPUs? Using WebGL or something? That could get... really interesting!

 

[jpiniero]

Speaking of mining on consoles, don't consoles have web browsers? Can't some sites "mine" when you point your web browser at them? Can console system web browsers access their GPUs? Using WebGL or something? That could get... really interesting!

PS5 technically has a browser but it's hidden and only really supports the bare minimum.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

that ability exists now and always existed at all times - just at different prices vs MSRP. Those who want to play today using say 3090 , can get it today off e-bay.
what mining experiment in greed gives us is great example of how with unlimited demand, supply is irrelevant to get to MSRP prices..

Not exactly the price isn’t what they are willing or able to pay. This doesn’t mean they should sell for $1 each because supply would cease. Same goes for if one was made and it sold for 75 million that doesn’t mean demand is filled, it does mean demand for one 75 million cars was filled.

 

[Magic Carpet]

Actually, some of my favourite games are pushing 20 years old, so they'll happily (and do) run on a potato.

Yeah, for example, Heroes 3 HOTA is pretty nice and does run on anything.

 

[CuriousMike]

If the apocalyptic future where high-end PC gaming withers and dies due to lack of options for the PC gamer, I would think it would have a tremendous effect on the overall PC economy.

I don't portend to know to what extent PC enthusiasts are all PC gamers, but I imagine there is a pretty strong correlation.

Let's say there isn't a correlation - that still means a whole lot of companies will need to update / change their strategies.
A company like Logitech will suddenly need to have their whole gaming PC hardware suite more tailored for consoles.
Companies like Corsair will feel it - so many cases, RGB lights and mice go to PC's. They need to increase their marketing for consoles.

If there is a correlation ( that is, most PC enthusiasts update hardware for gaming ) - then all the case, memory and CPU manufacturers will feel it too.

There's only so much customization you can do for a console - or is there? Maybe Corsair will start building new cases to house your PS 6.

 

[CuriousMike]

I used Nicehash on my 5700XT for a week and it says it'll pay me $35 as bitcoin.

Maybe because I have a decent job, that return doesn't seem worthwhile. It takes 1 week to earn less than I do for an hour of work.

Not to mention the energy impact mining likely had on my bill.

I must assume energy / green effect of mining must be a discussion point.

 

[VirtualLarry]

I used Nicehash on my 5700XT for a week and it says it'll pay me $35 as bitcoin.

Maybe because I have a decent job, that return doesn't seem worthwhile. It takes 1 week to earn less than I do for an hour of work.

Not to mention the energy impact mining likely had on my bill.

I must assume energy / green effect of mining must be a discussion point.

I agree, that's close to the best revenue for a single card, and compared to a "real job", it's not much.

BUT...

You have to realize that it's:
a) scalable, and
b) largely hands-off (once you get settings dialed in)
additionally, in the NE at least, if you have electric heat, then you can supplant / substitute mining for heating during the colder / cooler months, effectively making the costs "free", relatively.

Most of the YouTube miners have day jobs, but at least one of them is part-owner of a (GPU) mining warehouse somewhere in the USA.

I'm disabled, so any free money that doesn't require a job is going to help me out financially. Plus I have electric heat, and it's included in my rent. So, for me, mining mostly makes sense.

Edit: Basically, once you work your way up to a dozen RX5700XT cards or equivalent (600MH/sec on ETH), things can start to look really rather profitable. Moreso if you got the cards at MSRP, and not $1300-1500.

 

[aleader]

b) largely hands-off (once you get settings dialed in)
additionally, in the NE at least, if you have electric heat, then you can supplant / substitute mining for heating during the colder / cooler months, effectively making the costs "free", relatively.

I agree that it's largely hands-off once you're dialed in, but you still need to be around to keep an eye on the cards. I fret a little too much probably over my 3070 as it is in my gaming PC. I also live in an extremely cold climate (central Sask, Canada), but I still don't use the cards to heat as it also means that the ambient temps where the PCs are is going to go up, requiring more fan speed. For example, it's -1C outside as I type this, and I have a window cracked downstairs to keep the basement cool (15C), which means only 55% fan speed on my 3070 (42C, 1030 RPM).

On mining, everyone seems to discount the possibility of governments simply shutting it down. They don't care about a relative handful of miners that are putting full strain on the power grid in some cases. I think the only reason Biden didn't crack down (he backed down when he took office) on it in the US is the prevalence of rich investors now that also fund their campaigns...i.e. the legalized bribery that is the US political system.

This is what I'm talking about:

“Today’s weakness is mostly attributed to accelerated profit taking after news hit that Turkey bans crypto payments,” Edward Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, told CoinDesk in an email. “The biggest fear for many crypto traders has always been that big governments might impose harsh restrictions on cryptocurrencies.”