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Question Let's talk tough turkey - what if mining more-or-less "never" subsides? Strategies for getting GPUs?

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
50,897
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Let's look at this picture semi-realistically. While earnings for mining ETH may take a hit in July due to EIP-1559, other up-and-coming coins such as Ravencoin (KAWPOW on NH), and Conflux (Octopus on NH) may "sustain" the mining boom. Also, BTC and ETC are up WAY higher than they were in 2017, and highly unlikely to drop down to "unprofitable" levels again. Not to mention, actual silicon and component / substrate supply shortages means that, at least in the near term of the next few years, GPU mfg is unlikely to keep up with gamer demand, nevermind mining. And the rise of "botting and scalping" - when attempting to purchase the few GPUs that come up, you're most likely not even competing with humans for those cards.
 
Feb 4, 2009
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Assuming it never subsides then market demand for cards and specs of those cards has changed significantly.
I would assume more vendors would start making video card chips and/or maybe some kind of "reimagining" of what a graphics chip is.
 

GodisanAtheist

Platinum Member
Nov 16, 2006
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Write your congressman and demand that they outlaw crypto...

Otherwise suck it up or find something else to do...
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
50,897
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I would assume more vendors would start making video card chips and/or maybe some kind of "reimagining" of what a graphics chip is.
Maybe this "GPU shortage", which is expected to last (at least?) two years, will lead to a great expansion of the market. Possibly we might see some other players enter the market? (Don't know of any off-hand that want to compete head-to-head against AMD and NVidia in the PC space, except for Intel.) But maybe some of the ARM GPU IP makers might spin off some cards that are based on scaled-up GPUs from their Android / ARM tablets and phones? Might we see some third, fourth, fifth players in the market, eventually?

That would definitely in my mind be a silver lining as compared to the current situation. "The market will provide."

Of course, there are limits.. where else would those tertiary GPU makers have them fabbed, besides TSMC and Samsung fabs?
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
50,897
6,313
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Isn't crypto a lot lower on AMD cards?
On the 6000-series RX cards, yes. The RX 5700(XT) and RX 5600XT (all three of those are Navi10) can definitely hold their own. AMD should start producing "crypto" cards based on full-memory-spec Navi10, IMHO. Just remember to leave at least ONE video output, please?
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
50,897
6,313
126
Write your congressman and demand that they outlaw crypto...

Otherwise suck it up or find something else to do...
While I'm sure that some folks might demand a legislative solution to every problem (older Boomers?), the fact of the matter is, there are some things that legislation, on it's face, is a poor tool to use for a solution, when it doesn't fit the facts of the situation.

The problem is a silicon supply shortage, and I'm not sure how legislation would get around that fact, unless it were about appropriations to subsidize production facilities for more silicon production, but those things have lead times in a number of years (new fabs).
 
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UsandThem

Elite Member
Super Moderator
May 4, 2000
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And the rise of "botting and scalping" - when attempting to purchase the few GPUs that come up, you're most likely not even competing with humans for those cards.
I'd spend my money on other stuff.

In fact, this whole mining/shortage/pricing situation over the last 12-18 months has changed me a lot........from being a computer enthusiast/early adopter to someone who has really lost interest in something that I've loved doing for the last 27 years.

Hell, the next time I actually need to replace my PC, I might even do something unheard of (at least by me).......buy a prebuilt Dell or something similar instead of building my own. I just refuse to pay $1k for a low midrange GPU (or $500 for a motherboard). Homey don't play that. :p
 
Feb 4, 2009
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I'd spend my money on other stuff.

In fact, this whole mining/shortage/pricing situation over the last 12-18 months has changed me a lot........from being a computer enthusiast/early adopter to someone who has really lost interest in something that I've loved doing for the last 27 years.

Hell, the next time I actually need to replace my PC, I might even do something unheard of (at least by me).......buy a prebuilt Dell or something similar instead of building my own. I just refuse to pay $1k for a low midrange GPU (or $500 for a motherboard). Homey don't play that. :p
There is this too. Maybe PC gaming goes more towards integrated graphics kind of gaming and high-end gaming goes to consoles.
 

UsandThem

Elite Member
Super Moderator
May 4, 2000
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There is this too. Maybe PC gaming goes more towards integrated graphics kind of gaming and high-end gaming goes to consoles.
That's very true.

I understand PC gamers will still play games, but if they can't actually buy a GPU (or the price is so ridiculous), they could very well move over to consoles (assuming they can find one of those in stock at MSRP as well).
 

thecoolnessrune

Diamond Member
Jun 8, 2005
9,525
432
126
If GPU mining doesn't subside within a couple of years, I imagine you'll continue to watch the already smaller PC Gaming market continue to shrink, and Consoles will take up most of the slack. GPUs may finally lose the name "GPU" as their primary reference since mining crypto and Datacenter become the predominant use cases outside of consoles. With that we might see a further trend to the disappearance of the "Desktop" computer towards more laptops, NUC and other small scale form factors. Like others, I have no intention of replacing my GPU with anything at current scalper prices. I'll just keep riding out my 1080Ti, which continues to perform fine for 1440P gaming.
 
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Shmee

Memory and Storage, Graphics Cards
Super Moderator
Sep 13, 2008
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On the 6000-series RX cards, yes. The RX 5700(XT) and RX 5600XT (all three of those are Navi10) can definitely hold their own. AMD should start producing "crypto" cards based on full-memory-spec Navi10, IMHO. Just remember to leave at least ONE video output, please?
This isn't really true, from what I have heard. The 6800, 6800XT, and I am guessing 6900XT, all can get over 60 MH/s. They are listed on whattomine as 64MH/s. This is not as good as 3080 or 3090, but still pretty good.
 

IntelUser2000

Elite Member
Oct 14, 2003
7,384
2,082
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It's a mistake to think it's just mining or GPU related issue. The lockdowns are what's causing inflation. I've heard the other day where I live in Canada that prices of puppies are high. Food prices are going up. Housing prices keep going up. Stocks, Crypto rising is a given.

This isn't really true, from what I have heard. The 6800, 6800XT, and I am guessing 6900XT, all can get over 60 MH/s. They are listed on whattomine as 64MH/s. This is not as good as 3080 or 3090, but still pretty good.
3080 gets 50%+ better at 90-100MH/s for the same price as the 6800s. 3090, while super expensive gets 120MH/s.
 
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GodisanAtheist

Platinum Member
Nov 16, 2006
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While I'm sure that some folks might demand a legislative solution to every problem (older Boomers?), the fact of the matter is, there are some things that legislation, on it's face, is a poor tool to use for a solution, when it doesn't fit the facts of the situation.

The problem is a silicon supply shortage, and I'm not sure how legislation would get around that fact, unless it were about appropriations to subsidize production facilities for more silicon production, but those things have lead times in a number of years (new fabs).
- Larry, half your original post is dedicated to mining crypto. Sure, it's only part of the problem, but it is a major part of the problem.

Let's look at this picture semi-realistically. While earnings for mining ETH may take a hit in July due to EIP-1559, other up-and-coming coins such as Ravencoin (KAWPOW on NH), and Conflux (Octopus on NH) may "sustain" the mining boom. Also, BTC and ETC are up WAY higher than they were in 2017, and highly unlikely to drop down to "unprofitable" levels again. Not to mention, actual silicon and component / substrate supply shortages means that, at least in the near term of the next few years, GPU mfg is unlikely to keep up with gamer demand, nevermind mining. And the rise of "botting and scalping" - when attempting to purchase the few GPUs that come up, you're most likely not even competing with humans for those cards.


The supply shortage part will be slowly alleviated by the laws of demand and supply. TSMC has already committed a truckload of money to new fabs, they know this thirst for chips is going nowhere.
 
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ultimatebob

Lifer
Jul 1, 2001
23,654
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I'd spend my money on other stuff.

In fact, this whole mining/shortage/pricing situation over the last 12-18 months has changed me a lot........from being a computer enthusiast/early adopter to someone who has really lost interest in something that I've loved doing for the last 27 years.

Hell, the next time I actually need to replace my PC, I might even do something unheard of (at least by me).......buy a prebuilt Dell or something similar instead of building my own. I just refuse to pay $1k for a low midrange GPU (or $500 for a motherboard). Homey don't play that. :p
I would still avoid Dell. Their gaming PC lines still have weak power supplies, wimpy coolers, proprietary motherboards that lack expansion slots, and locked BIOS'es that prevent overclocking and limit upgrade options.

I went the Ibuypower route, where I could get a gaming PC with the hardware that I wanted without having the pay scalper prices for the video card.

I bought mine during a Black Friday sale, and paid less for the complete PC than it would have cost me to buy the individual parts as the prices that were already starting to go up at that time.
 
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Leeea

Senior member
Apr 3, 2020
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682
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Let's talk tough turkey - what if mining more-or-less "never" subsides?
Demand will catch up to supply eventually. Just like with bitcoin, specialist machines will be made to mine nicehash, and the current gen of mining cards will be flushed into the used market for gamers to buy. We are already seeing this somewhat, with certain nvidia cards being far more "optimized" for mining then their AMD counterparts. One has to imagine further such optimizations are possible and all the non-hashing silicon dropped.

It may take 2 to 5 years, but it will happen eventually.

The PC gaming will not die, it will change. It will target the lower specifications. The AMD APU's will fight it out with the intel iGPUs for the gaming crown. Games will still be innovative, and with DDR5 coming soon those apu/igpu will be able to keep up with a xbox/ps5 good enough.

There have been times when PCs were inferior to console, but they always held on and flourished. It will be no different. Even now, plenty of compelling games out there do not require a high end GPU.
 
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DAPUNISHER

Super Moderator and Elite Member
Moderator
Aug 22, 2001
22,643
3,841
136
Comments and observations:

  1. My son and I have too many PC games in our libraries, to just walk away and go back to console. And those are suffering from scalping, too.
  2. Most PC parts used to be expensive in adjusted dollars, and the hardware "aged" more rapidly than it does now. I ponied up then, I will do it again. It is after all, still a relatively inexpensive hobby regardless. Particularly after calculating the entertainment hours per dollar.
  3. If mining does stick around, part of the DIY purchasing strategy for many, will continue to be to defray some of the cost by engaging in it, when the system would otherwise be idle. The old - If you can't beat them, join them.
  4. DIY may be last in line for allocation of high demand parts for a good while. If so, OEM and S.I. will increasingly be more attractive options. That is still better than giving up and going to console. That's crazy talk! :p
  5. If you are fed up with the volatility of the market, burned out on the hobby, or you've lost that loving feeling? Try stand alone VR. I dig my $400 Quest. I have hundreds of rounds of sparring and training in on, Thrill of the Fight, alone. Beat Saber is a blast to play with the Mrs. And some of the VR tours and stuff are great. Also the closest thing to the actual Movie going experience while in lock down too. It can scratch that itch, if you will. All without hooking it to the PC, though you can do that too.
  6. Don't be a quitter. Taking your ball and going home, is not an option, private. Now get down off my obstacle!
 

simas

Senior member
Oct 16, 2005
358
63
91
Maybe this "GPU shortage", which is expected to last (at least?) two years, will lead to a great expansion of the market. Possibly we might see some other players enter the market? (Don't know of any off-hand that want to compete head-to-head against AMD and NVidia in the PC space, except for Intel.) But maybe some of the ARM GPU IP makers might spin off some cards that are based on scaled-up GPUs from their Android / ARM tablets and phones? Might we see some third, fourth, fifth players in the market, eventually?

That would definitely in my mind be a silver lining as compared to the current situation. "The market will provide."

Of course, there are limits.. where else would those tertiary GPU makers have them fabbed, besides TSMC and Samsung fabs?

I think you are right on it - eventually it would take care of itself, both in expansion of supply (profitability), as well as technology moving on with later/more efficient hardware released.
Question is whether uncertainty around what "eventually" means bother you or not. If it does , save up/earn up some money - buy once/cry once , and move on. if it does not, do something else instead , for many of us this was return to 'kids consoles' where I found that for $500 for XBX and equivalent of $5/month for GamePass, I can have my gaming urges satisfied and move on with my life. I will also pick up PS5 for its own exclusives and both would cost me less than replace a single GPU component in my next PC build.
 

VirtualLarry

No Lifer
Aug 25, 2001
50,897
6,313
126
I think you are right on it - eventually it would take care of itself, both in expansion of supply (profitability), as well as technology moving on with later/more efficient hardware released.
Question is whether uncertainty around what "eventually" means bother you or not. If it does , save up/earn up some money - buy once/cry once , and move on. if it does not, do something else instead , for many of us this was return to 'kids consoles' where I found that for $500 for XBX and equivalent of $5/month for GamePass, I can have my gaming urges satisfied and move on with my life. I will also pick up PS5 for its own exclusives and both would cost me less than replace a single GPU component in my next PC build.
Wait until some "Rogue Dev" adds in a mining feature into one of the obscure games, as an easter egg. Goodbye console availability...
 
Feb 4, 2009
29,408
9,962
136
Wait until some "Rogue Dev" adds in a mining feature into one of the obscure games, as an easter egg. Goodbye console availability...
Wow I didn’t think of this however I suspect there is a kill switch for game consoles but I am also sure that someone would figure out a way around that.
 
Feb 4, 2009
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As of now I suspect there is no reason but if things got really extreme couldn’t ISPs block mining stuff? I guess a vpn could solve that. I don’t know much about mining so this could be an ignorant question.
 

simas

Senior member
Oct 16, 2005
358
63
91
Wait until some "Rogue Dev" adds in a mining feature into one of the obscure games, as an easter egg. Goodbye console availability...
With amount of control companies like Sony/Microsoft have other "their" ecosystem, I find it to be very unlikely.. they know every console connecting, everything is uniquely identified , every activity is tacked (since as a parent I get reports on what my kids did , where, what they played, for how long, when, from what system ,etc.). it would be trivial for them to find such item, kills it, and kind anyone else who is trying to use it. good luck arguing 'fair use' in such scenarios :)

so very highly unlikely.
 

simas

Senior member
Oct 16, 2005
358
63
91
Console availability? You mean console unavailability (outside of the Nintendo Switch). :p
Xbox was fairly simple to get - watch things like nowinstock and pay attention. got mine from BB (for kids) and later from Microsoft Store directly fairly easily.
PS5 was a different matter, no appetite for 5 am drives to likes of Target to be in line for "in the store drops"
 

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