Intel's 10nm started in 2017. With HVM production starting on top of 7nm start in 2H2019. With the better tools from Nikon, Intel can probably produce 7nm after a year from start.
No fabs have skipped a process, because next generation process always build upon the previous generation. It's like saying let's skip grade 8-12 since I failed, and head straight to university.
Many people are pointing to Intel's needless focus on density for 10nm delays. Do you think a further focus in density at 7nm will make it easier?
No, if the roadmap is true then we won't see 10nm until 2020, its that simple.
I would somewhat agree if we didn't just keep getting Skylake on further and further improved 14nm.
This is because somewhere, someone important at Intel was too arrogant and refused to believe 10nm will cause such an issue for them. If you are absolutely confident that the next gen process will succeed, then it'll be a waste to make a backup based on 14nm. That's why 14nm refresh exist, rather than an updated architecture on 14nm.
This isn't about tech, and what's possible or not, but people running the company and the culture that makes it.
At this rate, the next fab player to fail after Global Foundries is Intel. So we'll have Samsung and TSMC left. Seeing how things are going, in just a few years we might just have TSMC as the only one making latest process(until they stop too of course).
I don't get this nm issue. We forgot what is the goal and the tool. The world issue.
The gains might be smaller than ever, and the efforts required greater on top of that, but a new process is still the best and surefire way to get improvements on microprocessors.
Think of an another possibility. Intel did not have a crazy focus on density and they got 10nm out in time. Competitive pressure from AMD and others would have caused them to create better 10nm products. It would be based on new IP. It would be more energy efficient, better performing, lower cost and have newer tech than 14nm could have ever brought.