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Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

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DisEnchantment

DisEnchantment

Golden Member
TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.

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N7 performance is more or less understood.
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This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

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For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.

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1587739615344.png

Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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FEEL FREE TO CREATE A NEW THREAD FOR 2025+ OUTLOOK, I WILL LINK IT HERE
 
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Fjodor2001 said:
I was mostly thinking about that the Datacenters are hoarding nVidia GPUs.

And you are sure the Taiwan conflict will not happen because… ?
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Because China is banking on Taiwan falling in their lap intact, when people of Taiwan vote in democratic elections to move closer to China. Step by step.

Value of Taiwan are its innovative people and companies, not land covered by corpses and rubble.
 
Joe NYC said:
Because China is banking on Taiwan falling in their lap intact, when people of Taiwan vote in democratic elections to move closer to China. Step by step.
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It’s not happened for decades and will not happen going forward either. China knows this too.

www.taipeitimes.com

Vast majority of Taiwanese do not like China: poll - Taipei Times

Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
www.taipeitimes.com www.taipeitimes.com

”About 90 percent of Taiwanese have an unfavorable impression of China and do not want unification with China, a poll publicized by the World United Formosans for Independence (WUFI) showed yesterday.”

Another one:
 
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Fjodor2001 said:
It’s not happened for decades and will not happen going forward either.

www.taipeitimes.com

Vast majority of Taiwanese do not like China: poll - Taipei Times

Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan
www.taipeitimes.com www.taipeitimes.com

”About 90 percent of Taiwanese have an unfavorable impression of China and do not want unification with China, a poll publicized by the World United Formosans for Independence (WUFI) showed yesterday.”

Another one:
Click to expand...

LOL: "poll publicized by the World United Formosans for Independence", surely a credible outfit.

What most people don't realize is that the trigger for China invasion is Taiwan declaration of independence. China would rather see Taiwan a barren land covered with ruble and corpses than independence.

What triggered China's aggressive actions recently was visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan (suggestion of visit to independent country), something that still persists, price still being paid for that stunt.

Asking if they want independence is like asking a child if he wants a pony for Christmas. A child says yes, adult will say no.

I don't think Taiwan is going to volunteer to become the next Gaza or Ukraine. Which is why Status Quo will prevail and China is willing to wait another 100+ years under the current Status Quo in Taiwan, waiting for people decide to unify with China.

In the US, the "cycle" is 4 years, our politicians think in terms of 4 years. In China, their cycle it is a century+.

Cheering for Taiwan independence is the same as death wish for people of Taiwan. Intel investor on Twitter will surely say "Some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I am willing to make".


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Joe NYC said:
There have been "Vibes and Tweets" from Intel investors on Twitter about Intel benefiting from tariff eruptions and Taiwan eruptions. It has been going on for a year.

But it has all been a delusion. There are no tariffs on semis and Taiwan is not erupting.
Click to expand...
Not to turn this into a political thread, but DJT is just saber rattling like a wannabe dictator by threatening with tariffs, but that’s the only thing he knows how to do. The world knows that he’s all bluster by now given that he always backs down, but Intel longs hope that Trump’s actions have teeth because they’re watching out for their own wallets more so than anything else. Of course, major US fabless design firms want nothing but a maintaining of the status quo with unfettered access to TSMC.
 
Saylick said:
Not to turn this into a political thread, but DJT is just saber rattling like a wannabe dictator by threatening with tariffs, but that’s the only thing he knows how to do. The world knows that he’s all bluster by now given that he always backs down, but Intel longs hope that Trump’s actions have teeth because they’re watching out for their own wallets more so than anything else. Of course, major US fabless design firms want nothing but a maintaining of the status quo with unfettered access to TSMC.
Click to expand...

And these fabless companies (NVidia, Apple, AMD) have influence in Trump administration (thanks to David Sacks being the AI czar) more than anyone else, and that's why Trump is siding with the fabless companies (NVidia, Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom) and exempting the semi industry from tariffs. You can add the rest of the Mag 7 to the list, as those who do not want to see semi tariffs, and why there are no tariffs on semis.

Which leaves only Intel and Intel investors who are saber rattling for semi tariffs and war.
 
Win2012R2 said:
By the way - if Taiwan blows up TSMC stuff to smithereens then it would cause massive recession in the West too: stock market drops will be legendary because how heavy indexes rely on high tech now.

Because of that "the West" will not only do **** to stop it but instead call to Taiwan to surrender, and why not - "the West" officially recognised that Taiwan is part of China, only like 12 countries in the world recognised that Taiwan independent, here they are:

Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Paraguay, Eswatini, Tuvalu, Palau, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Saint Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

How much help would these countries provide? Zero, they can't and they won't.

And legally "the West" won't even be able to do jack because their own laws recognise Taiwan as part of China, they got sold off long time ago, if it wasn't for TSMC China would have taken over probably 20 years ago.

Mark my words - most "Western" countries will be calling on Taiwan to surrender and avoid bloodshed, and especially destruction of property vital for the world economy.
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Taiwan will die first before giving up and is likely that the items would be lost for real, no matter if ends into a MASSIVE recesion. They will go along the whole world if needed. Only that China, US, South Korea and maybe Japan would have the capacity of fabricate components.
 
desrever said:
Do you really think Taiwan will blow up their own economy just cause China takes over. What do the people gain? Nothing lol.

They only have it as a threat to keep the invasion off, actually doing it is just a suicide pill which doesn't do anything to China in the wake of the invasion.

Nobody really does this kind of thing irl during war. Small self sabotage might be implemented tactically but full scale blow up all the semi production will be the dumbest thing to do. What does Taiwan do after that? They won't have any economy any more and its not like China actually NEEDS TSMC, its just a nice to have.
Click to expand...

Taiwan isn't the one in control over whether TSMC's EUV production continues, ASML is. They don't provide support, that renders all EUV scanners non-functional. You think the EU is going to stand by and let China waltz into Taiwan and take it over? One of the actions they will take is to block ASML from providing such support. They've said that publicly.
 
Win2012R2 said:
Because they will be promised that their jobs will be kept and maybe they get extra holidays (on mainland China), and if they don't like that they will end up in "labour camps" - they won't be able to run away from the island, what do you think they'll choose? There is at least 40% pro-China voting population in Taiwan.
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Sure thing buddy. Dude, you’re literally advocating for forced slavery among the workers at TSMC. China would have all the leverage in the world if in that situation. They could just simply point a gun at them and say go work or you die. They don’t have to promise them anything.

And also, that 40% pro-China voting population statistic is a flat out lie. I don’t know where you’re getting your information from, maybe it’s from China, but that is absolutely outrageous. The answer is closer to 10%, 15% tops.
Win2012R2 said:
And legally "the West" won't even be able to do jack because their own laws recognise Taiwan as part of China, they got sold off long time ago, if it wasn't for TSMC China would have taken over probably 20 years ago.

Mark my words - most "Western" countries will be calling on Taiwan to surrender and avoid bloodshed, and especially destruction of property vital for the world economy.
Click to expand...
I think you should go look at war game scenarios about what happens. It’s pretty naïve to think that no one will step up and defend. And honestly man it seems like you’re just cheerleading for a takeover and that’s pretty fucking disgusting. And extremely authoritarian.
 
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Wow the thread turned 100% geopolitics and WW3/warfare speculation 😂

Prophecy #177:


Chances China blows Taiwan up: 0%

Chances anyone blows many TSMC fabs: 0%

Chances Taiwan-China reunification is official soon: 100%
 
Win2012R2 said:
It's provoked by China preparing to attack which is very overt and results in regular staging of blockades, which is actually legal declaration of war.

When (not if) China makes attempts to take over Taiwan then USA will also face choice of starting serious war with China or folding. There is currently so-called "strategic ambiguity" so that there is no clear answer, and legally USA will have zero legal reasons to get into war with China with what is currently recognised by USA as China.

So you end up having choices:
1) pre-emptive action in hope to prevent war altogether - forever OR taking a lot less casualties if war happens
2) still choosing whether to start war or not - only at worse conditions without troops/equipment on the island.
3) fold

The latter is the most likely 100% certain scenario, even without current admin which will just sell Taiwan, most likely already done so.
Click to expand...
I just don’t think that a fold will happen. 92+% of global advanced semi fabrication is done by TSMC. It would be a tragedy if that fell in the wrong hands. Too much is at stake to let that happen. It’d be a little bit different if IFS was actually executing on pace. But even still.
 
OK i have cleaned up all the Political Garbage from the thread. If i need to clean up anymore after this post, i will issue out infractions.

This is a TSMC TECHNICAL thread, not a politics thread.
If your that adamant in Politics, your welcome to go into our dark side which is known as politics and news and post there freely, but they have there own set of rules so make sure you read the TOS.

But i will not tollerate anymore political nonsense in this thread unless its directly relation to a TSMC Technical thread, like for example Sanctions on nodes or other things of that nature.

But assume if i have to read politics with absolutely 0 technical about TSMC, you will get an infraction.

Moderator Aigomorla
 
fastandfurious6 said:
Can you please clarify what you mean by "politics" exactly? What is the exact line crossed? What line separates speculation about cutting edge lithography and "politics" in an era where many masks are being dropped?

I can be more specific if you want
Click to expand...

What he says below with added:

digitaldreamer said:
Talking about China vs Taiwan is politics.
Click to expand...

If you want to talk about Taiwan make sure its because its related to TSMC in a technical way.

China Invading Taiwan.. .or chinese politics which has absolutely no technical info in regards to TSMC are not allowed.
There are many people who do not like politics, we hate anything that has to do with politics, and only come to this thread for technical.

Again if you need to pull politics, you must show technical, like China stolen ASML technology or somehow magically fabricated one and is based off TSMC N7 node or something. It needs to stay technical.
 
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