Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

[DisEnchantment]

TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

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For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.

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Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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[Joe NYC]

Lol why? Anyone looking at Hong Kong and Hainan will reject reunification immediately. There are other factors in play (purges in the military, etc) but we are already getting maybe a little off-topic here?

Once you switch your time frame to 100 year long time frame, things change a little. That's like 4+ generations. People will turn over. It may be decided by people not even born yet.

So, relating it to the news of the day or news of the hour is not really the correct time frame to be using

Needless to say, people claiming that 2026 or 2027 will be the year TSMC blows up are (at best) operating with old data/old news. Taiwan's fragile peace will likely hold, possibly for some time. TSMC will continue to operate as they do now.

A lot of that comes from people who are "invested" in this catastrophic scenario, thinking they can profit from a catastrophe. And, also from people lacking understanding.

I admit, I was one of those lacking understanding, and the more I look into it, the less likely it appears to be an imminent danger.

 

[jdubs03]

Chances anyone blows many TSMC fabs: 0%

Chances Taiwan-China reunification is official soon: 100%

Is there relevant Polymarket bets to make me rich?

Quite the trolling comment.

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13% chance that China will invade Taiwan by the end of 2026

Penetrating air space is like never waking up from Iraq war delusions.

We’re dealing with imperfect information obviously with classified state secrets, but these sixth-generation fighters are specifically supposed to be designed for all-around stealth, as in not just against high frequency radar but also low frequency, and IR. Plus they’ll have state of the art electronic jamming suites.

Once you switch your time frame to 100 year long time frame, things change a little. That's like 4+ generations. People will turn over. It may be decided by people not even born yet.

So, relating it to the news of the day or news of the hour is not really the correct time frame to be using

If I recall correctly, the trend is younger people are less likely to support reunification.

 

[MoistOintment]

Any aircraft has been reduced to firing missiles from safe distance or be shot down. Stand off vs. stand in. No need to spend 100s of billions on fancy new B21. Total waste of money. Any old aircraft can fill stand off role.

Penetrating air space is like never waking up from Iraq war delusions.

"Stealth" reduces the functional range of weapons grade locks. The "safe" distance for aircraft varies heavily based on its RCS.

If low-RCS aircraft weren't viable, both China and the US wouldn't be in arms race over developing them. With that said, F15-EX exists essentially to serve the role you mention. But aircraft like the B21, NGAD, F-35 serve a necessary role, just like J-35, J-36, H-20, J-20, etc. When the situation becomes long range, "see-first, shoot-first" fights, reducing your own RCS is just as important as improving your radars.

 

[Doug S]

Lol why? Anyone looking at Hong Kong and Hainan will reject reunification immediately.

Yeah I think China really gamed it out poorly with how they cracked down on Hong Kong. They should have played the long game and used a light touch. That would have been more likely to lull a lot of Taiwanese into thinking Chinese rule wouldn't be a bad thing so long as they got a similar deal. Once they were in place, then Xi could crack down whenever he liked and it would be too late for the people of Taiwan to stop it.