Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

[DisEnchantment]

TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

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For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.

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Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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FEEL FREE TO CREATE A NEW THREAD FOR 2025+ OUTLOOK, I WILL LINK IT HERE

 

[Joe NYC]

I was mostly thinking about that the Datacenters are hoarding nVidia GPUs.

And you are sure the Taiwan conflict will not happen because… ?

Because China is banking on Taiwan falling in their lap intact, when people of Taiwan vote in democratic elections to move closer to China. Step by step.

Value of Taiwan are its innovative people and companies, not land covered by corpses and rubble.

 

[Fjodor2001]

Because China is banking on Taiwan falling in their lap intact, when people of Taiwan vote in democratic elections to move closer to China. Step by step.

It’s not happened for decades and will not happen going forward either. China knows this too.

Vast majority of Taiwanese do not like China: poll - Taipei Times

Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

www.taipeitimes.com

”About 90 percent of Taiwanese have an unfavorable impression of China and do not want unification with China, a poll publicized by the World United Formosans for Independence (WUFI) showed yesterday.”

Another one:

https://www.tpof.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20250214-TPOF-Special-Report-Taiwanese-Preferences-on-Political-Future.pdf

 

[Joe NYC]

It’s not happened for decades and will not happen going forward either.

Vast majority of Taiwanese do not like China: poll - Taipei Times

Bringing Taiwan to the World and the World to Taiwan

www.taipeitimes.com

”About 90 percent of Taiwanese have an unfavorable impression of China and do not want unification with China, a poll publicized by the World United Formosans for Independence (WUFI) showed yesterday.”

Another one:

https://www.tpof.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20250214-TPOF-Special-Report-Taiwanese-Preferences-on-Political-Future.pdf

LOL: "poll publicized by the World United Formosans for Independence", surely a credible outfit.

What most people don't realize is that the trigger for China invasion is Taiwan declaration of independence. China would rather see Taiwan a barren land covered with ruble and corpses than independence.

What triggered China's aggressive actions recently was visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan (suggestion of visit to independent country), something that still persists, price still being paid for that stunt.

Asking if they want independence is like asking a child if he wants a pony for Christmas. A child says yes, adult will say no.

I don't think Taiwan is going to volunteer to become the next Gaza or Ukraine. Which is why Status Quo will prevail and China is willing to wait another 100+ years under the current Status Quo in Taiwan, waiting for people decide to unify with China.

In the US, the "cycle" is 4 years, our politicians think in terms of 4 years. In China, their cycle it is a century+.

Cheering for Taiwan independence is the same as death wish for people of Taiwan. Intel investor on Twitter will surely say "Some of you may die, but that's a sacrifice I am willing to make".

 

[Fjodor2001]

You can check the other source I linked to as well. And there are plenty more if you google, from various sources. They all point in the same direction. The people of Taiwan does not want unification with China, and they will not vote for it either.

W.r.t. people willing to fight for their country, how about Vietnam, Afghanistan, Korea, etc. Even the almighty US couldn’t conquer them.

Also, China is not willing to wait 100+ years. Xi wants this done before he hands over to the next dictator.

So I’d say the risk of conflict is quite high.

 

[Saylick]

There have been "Vibes and Tweets" from Intel investors on Twitter about Intel benefiting from tariff eruptions and Taiwan eruptions. It has been going on for a year.

But it has all been a delusion. There are no tariffs on semis and Taiwan is not erupting.

Not to turn this into a political thread, but DJT is just saber rattling like a wannabe dictator by threatening with tariffs, but that’s the only thing he knows how to do. The world knows that he’s all bluster by now given that he always backs down, but Intel longs hope that Trump’s actions have teeth because they’re watching out for their own wallets more so than anything else. Of course, major US fabless design firms want nothing but a maintaining of the status quo with unfettered access to TSMC.

 

[Joe NYC]

Not to turn this into a political thread, but DJT is just saber rattling like a wannabe dictator by threatening with tariffs, but that’s the only thing he knows how to do. The world knows that he’s all bluster by now given that he always backs down, but Intel longs hope that Trump’s actions have teeth because they’re watching out for their own wallets more so than anything else. Of course, major US fabless design firms want nothing but a maintaining of the status quo with unfettered access to TSMC.

And these fabless companies (NVidia, Apple, AMD) have influence in Trump administration (thanks to David Sacks being the AI czar) more than anyone else, and that's why Trump is siding with the fabless companies (NVidia, Apple, AMD, Qualcomm, Broadcom) and exempting the semi industry from tariffs. You can add the rest of the Mag 7 to the list, as those who do not want to see semi tariffs, and why there are no tariffs on semis.

Which leaves only Intel and Intel investors who are saber rattling for semi tariffs and war.

 

[DZero]

By the way - if Taiwan blows up TSMC stuff to smithereens then it would cause massive recession in the West too: stock market drops will be legendary because how heavy indexes rely on high tech now.

Because of that "the West" will not only do **** to stop it but instead call to Taiwan to surrender, and why not - "the West" officially recognised that Taiwan is part of China, only like 12 countries in the world recognised that Taiwan independent, here they are:

Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Paraguay, Eswatini, Tuvalu, Palau, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Saint Lucia, Saint Kitts and Nevis, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

How much help would these countries provide? Zero, they can't and they won't.

And legally "the West" won't even be able to do jack because their own laws recognise Taiwan as part of China, they got sold off long time ago, if it wasn't for TSMC China would have taken over probably 20 years ago.

Mark my words - most "Western" countries will be calling on Taiwan to surrender and avoid bloodshed, and especially destruction of property vital for the world economy.

Taiwan will die first before giving up and is likely that the items would be lost for real, no matter if ends into a MASSIVE recesion. They will go along the whole world if needed. Only that China, US, South Korea and maybe Japan would have the capacity of fabricate components.

 

[Win2012R2]

Taiwan will die first before giving up and is likely that the items would be lost for real, no matter if ends into a MASSIVE recesion

40% of the country vote for pro-Chinese (as in pro-unification) party. China will obviously offer all collaborators anything they want, including free passage out of Taiwan for them and their families, that will push up this %-tage to very high values among the elites, they have not fought any wars since like 1945, and blowing up fabs will only make US rich which made them setup in US, why would they do that for the country (under Trump) that will certainly betray them? I am not sure even any other US President would actually agree to enter major fighting with China over Taiwan, maybe 20 years ago, but certainly not now.

Anyway, we will very soon find out who is right, likely before Nov 2026.

 

[Doug S]

Do you really think Taiwan will blow up their own economy just cause China takes over. What do the people gain? Nothing lol.

They only have it as a threat to keep the invasion off, actually doing it is just a suicide pill which doesn't do anything to China in the wake of the invasion.

Nobody really does this kind of thing irl during war. Small self sabotage might be implemented tactically but full scale blow up all the semi production will be the dumbest thing to do. What does Taiwan do after that? They won't have any economy any more and its not like China actually NEEDS TSMC, its just a nice to have.

Taiwan isn't the one in control over whether TSMC's EUV production continues, ASML is. They don't provide support, that renders all EUV scanners non-functional. You think the EU is going to stand by and let China waltz into Taiwan and take it over? One of the actions they will take is to block ASML from providing such support. They've said that publicly.

 

[jdubs03]

Because they will be promised that their jobs will be kept and maybe they get extra holidays (on mainland China), and if they don't like that they will end up in "labour camps" - they won't be able to run away from the island, what do you think they'll choose? There is at least 40% pro-China voting population in Taiwan.

Sure thing buddy. Dude, you’re literally advocating for forced slavery among the workers at TSMC. China would have all the leverage in the world if in that situation. They could just simply point a gun at them and say go work or you die. They don’t have to promise them anything.

And also, that 40% pro-China voting population statistic is a flat out lie. I don’t know where you’re getting your information from, maybe it’s from China, but that is absolutely outrageous. The answer is closer to 10%, 15% tops.

And legally "the West" won't even be able to do jack because their own laws recognise Taiwan as part of China, they got sold off long time ago, if it wasn't for TSMC China would have taken over probably 20 years ago.

Mark my words - most "Western" countries will be calling on Taiwan to surrender and avoid bloodshed, and especially destruction of property vital for the world economy.

I think you should go look at war game scenarios about what happens. It’s pretty naïve to think that no one will step up and defend. And honestly man it seems like you’re just cheerleading for a takeover and that’s pretty fucking disgusting. And extremely authoritarian.

 

[Win2012R2]

And honestly man it seems like you’re just cheerleading for a takeover and that’s pretty fucking disgusting. And extremely authoritarian.

No, I am not. I actually advocate that Taiwan is formally recognised by USA/EU and many others and US puts large force on the island with all necessary weaponry to defend it, obviously signing relevant treaty for defense, that will solve this question and remove risk of war. However with the current admin there is 0 chance they will defend Taiwan, chances are they already sold it.

Sure thing buddy. Dude, you’re literally advocating for forced slavery among the workers at TSMC. China would have all the leverage in the world if that situation. They could just simply point a gun at them and say go work or you die. They don’t have to promise them anything.

Where am I advocating for that? I am saying that China will offer them either labour camps or still keeping high paying jobs, probably with bonus, in long term they will move all production to mainland obviously.

Taiwan isn't the one in control over whether TSMC's EUV production continues, ASML is.

Yes sure, but if fait accompli happens and China manages to get control over fabs then it will be a choice for EU and US: sanction deliveries and crash all tech companies OR accept and go back to business as usual. And why would not they do it - Taiwan according to those countries is legal part of China! Nobody is going to start WW3 over unrecognised state if the occupier promises, and China will, keep business as usual. Of course they will lie but that will be later - problem for somebody else.

 

[jdubs03]

No, I am not. I actually advocate that Taiwan is formally recognised by USA/EU and many others and US puts large force on the island with all necessary weaponry to defend it, obviously signing relevant treaty for defense, that will solve this question and remove risk of war. However with the current admin there is 0 chance they will defend Taiwan, chances are they already sold it.

Where am I advocating for that? I am saying that China will offer them either labour camps or still keeping high paying jobs, probably with bonus, in long term they will move all production to mainland obviously.

1. Doesn’t seem like it, but I’ll take your word for it. I mean the past 40 or 50 years has been maintaining the status quo. This sort of uneasy balance between a one China, and this breakaway province.

2. I just don’t think that they will do the latter. Why would they? The CCP is not going to be in a chivalrous mood. They may recognize that TSMC’s facilities are extremely important and they can just commandeer them for their own endeavors. But they will obtain an organizational chart of every employee at TSMC and they will hunt them down and force them to work. And if they don’t, then they go to labor camps. That’s the only incentive is if you don’t work, you are permanently imprisoned. Sure maybe you get paid I’m conceding maybe that’s a possibility, though I think less likely but then then you compromising on your principles.

 

[Joe NYC]

No, I am not. I actually advocate that Taiwan is formally recognised by USA/EU and many others and US puts large force on the island with all necessary weaponry to defend it, obviously signing relevant treaty for defense, that will solve this question and remove risk of war. However with the current admin there is 0 chance they will defend Taiwan, chances are they already sold it.

That's literally the worst thing imaginable you are advocating.

It equals (unprovoked) declaration of war on China, end of Taiwan, world economy in depression worse than the Great Depression.

And that's the most optimistic scenario, of no exchange of ICBMs. It is something only a mad man (or a very ignorant person) would want to trigger.

China would respond with blockade of Taiwan. Taiwan, having (foolishly) switched from nuclear to gas will be out of power in weeks or months. US trying to break the blockade, 5,500 Nautical Miles away from US mainland would lose every naval ship, including aircraft carriers trying to break the blockade.

 

[jdubs03]

That's literally the worst thing imaginable you are advocating.

It equals (unprovoked) declaration of war on China, end of Taiwan, world economy in depression worse than the Great Depression.

And that's the most optimistic scenario, of no exchange of ICBMs. It is something only a mad man (or a very ignorant person) would want to trigger.

China would respond with blockade of Taiwan. Taiwan, having (foolishly) switched from nuclear to gas will be out of power in weeks or months. US trying to break the blockade, 5,500 Nautical Miles away from US mainland would lose every naval ship, including aircraft carriers trying to break the blockade.

Based on war gaming, China would lose. But, it would be quite painful for all those involved (pretty obvious).

 

[Joe NYC]

Based on war gaming, China would lose. But, it would be quite painful for all those involved (pretty obvious).

Some of the "war games" are war gaming China's land invasion of Taiwan instead of blockade of the island. That assumes that the Chinese are dumb.

Another dumb thing they "war game" is China using its Navy to blockade Taiwan, saying China would lose its Navy.

A lot of 1/4, 1/2 or full century old assumptions.

We live in era of drones and missiles. Everything else is just (soon to be) scrap at the bottom of the ocean. The only thing in water that can survive is a submarine, everything else gets sunk.

 

[adroc_thurston]

instead of blockade of the island

'blockade' is a meme in a world of anti-ship missiles

 

[jdubs03]

Some of the "war games" are war gaming China's land invasion of Taiwan instead of blockade of the island. That assumes that the Chinese are dumb.

Another dumb thing they "war game" is China using its Navy to blockade Taiwan, saying China would lose its Navy.

A lot of 1/4, 1/2 or full century old assumptions.

We live in era of drones and missiles. Everything else is just (soon to be) scrap at the bottom of the ocean. The only thing in water that can survive is a submarine, everything else gets sunk.

Ah, I still think the B2(21) bomber has its place. That can’t really be automated at least not yet. Even the stealth fighters are needed as quarterbacks with those drones.

But I digress. Let’s hope none of these things we’re talking about comes to pass and China actually doesn’t destroy the world economy.

 

[Joe NYC]

'blockade' is a meme in a world of anti-ship missiles

As I just posted right above. Virtual blockade, without having to use any naval ships. Just radio the ship to turn around, or it will be sunk by a naval drone or a missile.

 

[DrMrLordX]

And you are sure the Taiwan conflict will not happen because… ?

It would be easier for the CCP to take Vladivistok to save face. Lower-risk, too.

 

[Joe NYC]

Ah, I still think the B2(21) bomber has its place. That can’t really be automated at least not yet. Even the stealth fighters are needed as quarterbacks with those drones.

Any aircraft has been reduced to firing missiles from safe distance or be shot down. Stand off vs. stand in. No need to spend 100s of billions on fancy new B21. Total waste of money. Any old aircraft can fill stand off role.

Penetrating air space is like never waking up from Iraq war delusions.

But I digress. Let’s hope none of these things we’re talking about comes to pass and China actually doesn’t destroy the world economy.

The reason for this tangent is that some people think that US should use strong words about defending Taiwan and recognize it as independent country, which is in fact the dumbest thing to do.

The best thing is to say nothing and maintain the Status Quo.

That way, Taiwan stays safe, its fabs, companies and people are safe. And parallel to that, encourage TSMC to keep investing ore in the US. Which is pretty much what is happening.

 

[fastandfurious6]

Wow the thread turned 100% geopolitics and WW3/warfare speculation 😂

Prophecy #177:


Chances China blows Taiwan up: 0%

Chances anyone blows many TSMC fabs: 0%

Chances Taiwan-China reunification is official soon: 100%

 

[fastandfurious6]

Is there relevant Polymarket bets to make me rich?

 

[itsmydamnation]

40% of the country vote for pro-Chinese (as in pro-unification) party.

no they didnt , why make up something that takes 2 mintues to check.

edit: unless you count all chinese rules under the ROC and in that case whats your point?

 

[Joe NYC]

no they didnt , why make up something that takes 2 mintues to check.

I think some people have trouble with something that is not binary choice, where you can have more than 2 options (independence vs. unification). Most of the political parties are on the 3rd option of Status Quo, one side trying to shift it towards confrontation with China (independence) the other side trying to shift to more accommodation with China. Both just shades of being pro Status Quo.

 

[DrMrLordX]

Chances Taiwan-China reunification is official soon: 100%

Lol why? Anyone looking at Hong Kong and Hainan will reject reunification immediately. There are other factors in play (purges in the military, etc) but we are already getting maybe a little off-topic here? Needless to say, people claiming that 2026 or 2027 will be the year TSMC blows up are (at best) operating with old data/old news. Taiwan's fragile peace will likely hold, possibly for some time. TSMC will continue to operate as they do now.