Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

[DisEnchantment]

TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

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For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.

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Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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[511]

Supposedly sensitive materials have already been seized from his home. He may well have smuggled trade secrets with him when he left TSMC. Whether or not he'd supply such material to Intel is unclear, but it should be obvious to Intel if he attempted to supply such materials to Intel for their advantage.

Yup

Do you think people are playing 5D chess when doing this stuff? Where do you expect people to leave their stuff if not at home? Also why bother selling TSMC stock? You think its going to go down from 1 small thing like this?

I would expect people to use brain and to take this trade secrets with them not leave it at home and his stock is getting Seized lmao so why would not sell it.

I had a PHD boss fired from Unilever for secretly collecting proprietary data at his home with the intention of moving to a local competitor. He and I had many confrontations and was a model of the Peter principle in action.

Except in this case we don't know if he is successful in smuggling stuff also it's not like Intel can use it directly they need to wait for few years to maybe months to use the info.

 

[marees]

Reminds me of the time, my daughter's school said during her admission to kindergarten

"We will raise fees by 10% every year — because your salaries increase by 10% every year"

hello! It doesn't !!!

https://twitter.com/x/status/2005430020249112712

TSMC capacity full from 4nm & upwards

https://twitter.com/x/status/2006516869256172023

 

[DrMrLordX]

TSMC capacity full from 4nm & upwards

That's odd. Why is TSMC having this problem all of a sudden? Can't they just build out more capacity?

 

[511]

That's odd. Why is TSMC having this problem all of a sudden? Can't they just build out more capacity?

Building Capacity takes time and TSMC is conservative when building they don't overbuilt much

 

[DrMrLordX]

Building Capacity takes time and TSMC is conservative when building they don't overbuilt much

When a customer approaches TSMC and says "I need X wafers at Y time" then TSMC either charges them up front (Intel, NV) or offers other options for preferred customers (Apple, AMD) and builds out capacity to deliver on or near the agreed-upon timeframe. If AMD, Broadcom, and Mediatek all want N4-family wafers and they can't get them, then something is wrong.

 

[511]

When a customer approaches TSMC and says "I need X wafers at Y time" then TSMC either charges them up front (Intel, NV) or offers other options for preferred customers (Apple, AMD) and builds out capacity to deliver on or near the agreed-upon timeframe. If AMD, Broadcom, and Mediatek all want N4-family wafers and they can't get them, then something is wrong.

that depends on when wafers were ordered when you suddenly go to TSMC and say we need more and they don't have capacity they can't give you more at that time you have to wait it out.
Designers would do anything but to use another foundry

 

[DrMrLordX]

that depends on when wafers were ordered when you suddenly go to TSMC and say we need more and they don't have capacity they can't give you more at that time you have to wait it out.
Designers would do anything but to use another foundry

Why do you imagine that any of these unfilled orders are sudden?

 

[Fjodor2001]

Why do you imagine that any of these unfilled orders are sudden?

China ordering H200 chips from nVidia (which is allowed due to new US decision on 8 Dec). Article from 31 Dec 2025:

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/nvidia-sounds-out-tsmc-new-h200-chip-order-china-demand-jumps-sources-say-2025-12-31/

”Summary:

• Chinese firms have ordered 2 million H200 chips, say sources
• Their demand for the chips far exceeds inventory with Nvidia, say sources
• TSMC expected to start work on expanded output in Q2 2026, says source”

Hard to predict demand when US trade regulations and tariffs change back and forth continuously.

 

[RnR_au]

 

[DrMrLordX]

China ordering H200 chips from nVidia

Are H200 chips fabbed on N4? And would TSMC cancel existing orders to meet demand from NV?

 

[Fjodor2001]

Are H200 chips fabbed on N4? And would TSMC cancel existing orders to meet demand from NV?

From the article:

"The H200, part of Nvidia's previous-generation Hopper architecture, uses TSMC's 4-nanometer manufacturing process."

 

[jpiniero]

Are H200 chips fabbed on N4? And would TSMC cancel existing orders to meet demand from NV?

I believe it's really N5 ("4N" node, the same as Ada and Blackwell Gaming), but I think it's the same tooling anyway.

 

[511]

Are H200 chips fabbed on N4? And would TSMC cancel existing orders to meet demand from NV?

They can't cancel existing orders but they won't allocate further capacity to anyone else if they want unless they pay more

 

[LightningZ71]

It appears that AMD is finding out what happens when you don't have your own fabs anymore and suddenly, there's a lot of demand and your competitors have deeper pockets.

 

[DrMrLordX]

They can't cancel existing orders but they won't allocate further capacity to anyone else if they want unless they pay more

Then the tweet is perhaps a bit misleading. AMD's going to get everything they had on order. Same for Mediatek and Broadcom (presumably).

 

[Thibsie]

What is even the credibility of this tweet and guy ? Any ?

 

[Fjodor2001]

Then the tweet is perhaps a bit misleading. AMD's going to get everything they had on order. Same for Mediatek and Broadcom (presumably).

I agree the tweet is a bit vague. I guess it depends on how it is to be interpreted. Could mean that they wanted to order more but couldn’t get it because TSMC is already fully booked, and building new capacity takes time so it might not be an option.

 

[marees]

What is even the credibility of this tweet and guy ? Any ?

omer cheema is credible. doesn't speculate. but not much details in his tweet

 

[Joe NYC]

That's odd. Why is TSMC having this problem all of a sudden? Can't they just build out more capacity?

Apparently, TSMC is doing now, what it typically doesn't do - which is converting N6/N7 capacity to N4/N5. I heard it mentioned in the past, I am not sure if it is still going on...

 

[Joe NYC]

What is even the credibility of this tweet and guy ? Any ?

IIRC, he is one of the large contingent of INTC fan club on Twitter (and SemiWiki), who twist every news into "this means that Intel Foundry is definitely getting huge orders".

Or, "there is no other possible outcome as a result of XYZ news than companies flocking to Intel Foundry"

 

[poke01]

IIRC, he is one of the large contingent of INTC fan club on Twitter (and SemiWiki), who twist every news into "this means that Intel Foundry is definitely getting huge orders".

Or, "there is no other possible outcome as a result of XYZ news than companies flocking to Intel Foundry"

The biggest thing for Intel Foundry would be winning the flagship iPhone orders someday

This will be mean two things then

1) IFS has enough capacity finally
2) TSMC should be worried because Intel has capacity

until then whatever these fan accounts say is irrelevant.

 

[Joe NYC]

So, we went from "Nobody will have any N2 capacity, because Apple bought out half or more N2 capacity for new iPhone in 2026.

To: "There may not be a new iPhone in 2026"

https://twitter.com/x/status/2006862750891569301

 

[adroc_thurston]

The biggest thing for Intel Foundry would be winning the flagship iPhone orders someday

This will be mean two things then

1) IFS has enough capacity finally
2) TSMC should be worried because Intel has capacity

until then whatever these fan accounts say is irrelevant.

Capacity isn't the problem.
Intel nodes just suck.
Hopefully 14A is viable at least.

So, we went from "Nobody will have any N2 capacity, because Apple bought out half or more N2 capacity for new iPhone in 2026.

this was always a meme, N2 ramp is driven by AMD.

 

[511]

Capacity isn't the problem.
Intel nodes just suck.

blatantly false claim outside of couple of nodes .....

 

[jpiniero]

So, we went from "Nobody will have any N2 capacity, because Apple bought out half or more N2 capacity for new iPhone in 2026.

To: "There may not be a new iPhone in 2026"

They are still going to release the Pro and Pro Max.