Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

[DisEnchantment]

TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

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For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.

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Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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[511]

They learned to do that from Jim Keller. They seem to be incapable of learning on their own.

Nope it was Pats idea

 

[511]

They didn't derisk it anywhere near enough, which is why 20A did that magical vanishing trick.

They needed to run something through that node at volume and the thing that was supposed to be run through them got vanished.

 

[adroc_thurston]

They needed to run something through that node at volume and the thing that was supposed to be run through them got vanished.

It didn't like magically vanish.
Yields we're doodoo because BSPDN is hard.

 

[511]

It didn't like magically vanish.
Yields we're doodoo because BSPDN is hard.

They would have gotten yield stabilized but it would cost them time which they don't have lol.

 

[adroc_thurston]

They would have gotten yield stabilized but it would cost them time which they don't have lol.

They ain't got no time right now either, and yield issues to deal with still.
Verdict: shoulda made a BSPDN-less 18A.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Nope it was Pats idea

Yeah, like he had SOOOO much experience with fab related stuff at VMware and had no choice but to learn ALL about semiconductor technology there to help VMware create vaporware silicon

 

[igor_kavinski]

They would have gotten yield stabilized but it would cost them time which they don't have lol.

Because of their CEO's (Pat) stupid hype infused comments, they kept tried to leapfrog the competition. Like they have never heard the story of the hare and the tortoise. There's no foolproof way to success other than honest and hard work short of hiring some world renowned miracle working engineer/scientist.

 

[adroc_thurston]

Yeah, like he had SOOOO much experience with fab related stuff at VMware and had no choice but to learn ALL about semiconductor technology there to help VMware create vaporware silicon

He does you numbskull, he was Intel's CTO for a while.
Ffs stop with the Pat FUD. He did some dumb stuff and fired nowhere near enough people, but he had all the technical chops necessary to run Intel.

 

[igor_kavinski]

but he had all the technical chops necessary to run Intel.

Like dancing on stage?

 

[adroc_thurston]

Like dancing on stage?

Like knowing the technical side of business.
Cocaine and stage dancing are just old Valley habits.

 

[Thunder 57]

Yields are fine don't know where you get your info they are fine at this stage not spectacular but not that bad.

If it didn't they wouldn't have derisked I3 with I4 and 18A with 20A and outsourcing to TSMC?

I've never seen you provide a source either. Just "Everything is fine". 20A canceled. "This is fine". I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Now that the US govt has a stake in Intel, I hope some committee is doing a report on the internal goings on at Intel that gets declassified at some point.

 

[511]

I've never seen you provide a source either. Just "Everything is fine". 20A canceled. "This is fine". I'll believe it when I see it.

How can you say here is my source

Spoiler: Source

Trust Me Bro

 

[511]

Because of their CEO's (Pat) stupid hype infused comments, they kept tried to leapfrog the competition. Like they have never heard the story of the hare and the tortoise. There's no foolproof way to success other than honest and hard work short of hiring some world renowned miracle working engineer/scientist.

Bruh looks like you have a personal vendetta against Pat 🤣🤣.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Bruh looks like you have a personal vendetta against Pat 🤣🤣.

Nah. Just hate overpaid morons who destroy brands from my childhood. Anyway, thanks Pat for the i486. Now go hang your head in shame in a corner for not staying sharp with age.

 

[511]

Nah. Just hate overpaid morons who destroy brands from my childhood. Anyway, thanks Pat for the i486. Now go hang your head in shame in a corner for not staying sharp with age.

Bruh don't you think that title should go to Brian Kranzich. He single handedly destroyed a company that has the power of Nvidia and TSMC Combined.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Bruh don't you think that title should go to Brian Kranzich.

He could've done something better. Who knows? He could've made Jim Keller stay. Bob Swan bungled that up big time.

I know one thing for sure. Jim Keller would not have let the teams deliver crap product because it would have tarnished his own reputation.

 

[511]

He could've done something better. Who knows? He could've made Jim Keller stay. Bob Swan bungled that up big time.

Keller left before Pat Joined.

I know one thing for sure. Jim Keller would not have let the teams deliver crap product because it would have tarnished his own reputation.

Bruh the crap was planned during Swan era things planned under Pat are yet to come out. Reserve the judgement based on PTL/NVL.

 

[igor_kavinski]

Reserve the judgement based on PTL/NVL.

Well duh now they HAVE to deliver something better because they are in a dire situation. Failing now would be suicide, especially since the current CEO isn't going to hold back and fire the product head and promote someone else on the team. I think Holthaus getting fired is possibly related to PTL underperforming.

 

[511]

I think Holthaus getting fired is possibly related to PTL underperforming.

I think it's more due to moving 4+8 to N2 from 18AP and planning to outsource more from TSMC

 

[Geddagod]

I think it's more due to moving 4+8 to N2 from 18AP and planning to outsource more from TSMC

Not only has MJH been publicly more outspoken for 18A being on track/schedule than zinsner has, but LBT would be much less likely to fire her for this than someone like Pat, since he is much less "fab focused" than his predecessor.
If anything, I expect LBT to be one of the people spear heading the "outsource more from TSMC" plan tbh.

 

[511]

If anything, I expect LBT to be one of the people spear heading the "outsource more from TSMC" plan tbh

He is doing the reverse according to Daniel Neni on Semiwiki.

Not only has MJH been publicly more outspoken for 18A being on track/schedule than zinsner has, but LBT would be much less likely to fire her for this than someone like Pat, since he is much less "fab focused" than his predecessor.

That's where you are wrong he is very fab focused he was against Intel selling Fabs as for MJ she is marketing person. She can have a dual face.

 

[igor_kavinski]

If anything, I expect LBT to be one of the people spear heading the "outsource more from TSMC" plan tbh.

Then he would be a trojan placed at the right place to destroy the future of Intel foundry.

 

[igor_kavinski]

He is doing the reverse according to Daniel Neni on Semiwiki.

That's heartening to hear.

 

[Geddagod]

He is doing the reverse according to Daniel Neni on Semiwiki.

He is doing the reverse while threatening to cut 14A and future advanced nodes permanently?

That's where you are wrong he is very fab focused he was against Intel selling Fabs

This is literally the bare minimum.
And there is no point to selling the fabs by now. They already sunk all the money into 18A, milking it as much as they can is just getting a good ROI. Even the board would likely agree there's no point now (unless they get a very, very good deal).

as for MJ she is marketing person. She can have a dual face.

Why would she if there's other Intel executives being more honest about 18A, and she is actively pushing for more products to be external?