Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

[DisEnchantment]

TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

AnandTech Forums: Technology, Hardware, Software, and Deals

Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

www.anandtech.com

For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.

AnandTech Forums: Technology, Hardware, Software, and Deals

Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

www.anandtech.com

Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


FEEL FREE TO CREATE A NEW THREAD FOR 2025+ OUTLOOK, I WILL LINK IT HERE

 

[511]

If he is VC then he likely pooled money with a bunch of others to share risk, and most likely he won't even be making decisions on most of those companies, there are people who do that stuff working for him.

Either way if it's suddenly illegal to own shares in Chinese companies then this new sudden "law" should apply to all, not just Tan with 10 nanosecond notice.

not to mention he bough 20-25 million worth of Intel stock with his own money

 

[DZero]

If he is VC then he likely pooled money with a bunch of others to share risk, and most likely he won't even be making decisions on most of those companies, there are people who do that stuff working for him.

Either way if it's suddenly illegal to own shares in Chinese companies then this new sudden "law" should apply to all, not just Tan with 10 nanosecond notice.

This is bad, this is just used for politics and seeing China's next move, is clear that Intel is about to get the worst part.

 

[poke01]

Either way if it's suddenly illegal to own shares in Chinese companies then this new sudden "law" should apply to all, not just Tan with 10 nanosecond notice

It’s not illegal but raises ethical questions regarding where his loyalties lie. I mean we just had the Japanese company steal TSMC secrets. It’s not something that should be dismissed

 

[poke01]

not to mention he bough 20-25 million worth of Intel stock with his own money

That is NOTHING. If he can afford 25 million to put in shares, it’s legit pennies to him.

 

[Win2012R2]

It’s not illegal but raises ethical questions regarding where his loyalties lie.

It's matter for Intel and Intel only, it's not like he got a job in the Cabinet whilst having conflict of interest?

That is NOTHING. If he can afford 25 million to put in shares, it’s legit pennies to him.

Nice customary move, nobody should expect him to put 50% of his money into Intel, heck I would not put 25 bucks.

I mean we just had the Japanese company steal TSMC secrets. It’s not something that should be dismissed

The only top secret Intel got left is real info on 18A yields (and costs), but this is leaking out on Reuters now.

 

[Hitman928]

If he is VC then he likely pooled money with a bunch of others to share risk, and most likely he won't even be making decisions on most of those companies, there are people who do that stuff working for him.

Either way if it's suddenly illegal to own shares in Chinese companies then this new sudden "law" should apply to all, not just Tan with 10 nanosecond notice.

It’s not illegal to invest private money in foreign businesses, the concern is because of this:

He also asked whether Intel's board required Tan to divest from chip firms in China linked to the Chinese military or Communist Party, and if Tan adequately disclosed other ties to Chinese companies due to Intel's involvement in the Secure Enclave program, an initiative designed under the Biden administration to ensure a secure supply of microelectronics for defense.

Because of Intel getting federal funding under the initiative, Cotton questioned Yeary in the letter about Tan's disclosures related to investment, professional roles or other ties to Chinese companies.

"Intel is required to be a responsible steward of American taxpayer dollars and to comply with applicable security regulations," Cotton wrote. "Mr. Tan's associations raise questions about Intel's ability to fulfill these obligations."

And also that a criminal investigation was opened into Cadence while under his leadership (a settlement was reached).

Separately, last week Cadence Design agreed to plead guilty and pay more than $140 million to resolve charges for selling its chip design products to a Chinese military university, Reuters reported. The institution was believed to be involved in simulating nuclear blasts.

Tan ran Cadence as CEO from 2008 through 2021 and was executive chairman until May 2023. The sales to Chinese entities occurred under his leadership at Cadence, which makes design software and other tools used to create chips.

In his defense, Reuters reported that a source told them that he divested from all Chinese companies by April, but they also reported that their own investigation showed that he still had current investments in Chinese companies at the time of the report, though none listed by the US treasury as part of the CCP military industrial complex.

People can form their own opinions on whether that means he should resign or not, just giving the context for the story.

 

[Hitman928]

Nice customary move, nobody should expect him to put 50% of his money into Intel, heck I would not put 25 bucks.

Most companies require board members to hold a large amount of company stock to remain a board member. It’s possible that he sold his Intel shares when he left the board initially and had to buy them back when rejoining the company. This is just an educated guess on my part though.

 

[Win2012R2]

People can form their own opinions on whether that means he should resign or not, just giving the context for the story.

It's the matter for Intel - people who hired him (ultimately shareholders), if he personally committed any crimes then DoJ should charge him.

It's defo NOT the matter for the President - does not matter what his name, he should not interfere with lawful big US company.

 

[adroc_thurston]

with lawful big US company.

the law does not exist in the US anymore

 

[DZero]

Now is the RUS. USA stopped to exist this year.

 

[Joe NYC]

Remember not just trump we got us senators calling out Tan too. That’s more serious.

It was the other way around. It started from Tom Cotton (a war hawk or criminal, depending on POV) published a letter on Twitter accusing LBT of connection to Chinese Communist party (in other words Chinese government).

Then Trump heard about it. So, there is only one "source" and that is Senator Tom Cotton.

 

[poke01]

It's matter for Intel and Intel only, it's not like he got a job in the Cabinet whilst having conflict of interest?

Not while Intel gets US gov money.

 

[Joe NYC]

Not while Intel gets US gov money.

I saw a Tweet of another US senator, Rick Scott of Florida, asking for Intel to return the US tax money...

 

[adamge]

I thought Trump stopped all the CHIPS money from going to Intel months ago.

 

[Hitman928]

I thought Trump stopped all the CHIPS money from going to Intel months ago.

They’re still getting billions through other funding programs.

 

[511]

They’re still getting billions through other funding programs.

that is just change in what Intel actually put forward

 

[mikegg]

I don't know if the $16.5b is made up. I think it is to be honest.

Let's assume $20k/wafer. $16b can buy 800k wafers. Assume 200 chips per wafer. That's 160 million chips. Tesla sold 1.8m cars in 2024. They put two chips per car and let's assume that Tesla doubles their sales by 2028 (big assumption given they're selling less in 2025 than 2023).

1.8m * 2 * 2 = 7.2m chips.

The deal runs through end of 2033. So 5 years of production.

7.2m/year * 5 years = 36m chips needed.

Let's increase the growth a bit more and assume that Tesla will need 50m chips just for the cars from 2028 - 2033.

So the Optimus Robots will use 110m chips from 2028 - 2033? How many Optimus Robots do you think they can sell?

Musk saying that it'll be "multiples" is likely bullshit. He doesn't know that. He's just pumping Tesla stocks. I expect BYD to leave Tesla in the dust and Chinese robot companies to do the same to Optimus.

Given that Samsung 2nm is likely in same class as TSMC N3P, Tesla's products may be behind companies that use more advanced TSMC nodes.

Now that Dojo team at Tesla has been disbanded, it makes Musks' comment about "multiples" of the $16b look even more stupid.

 

[KompuKare]

Now that Dojo team at Tesla has been disbanded, it makes Musks' comment about "multiples" of the $16b look even more stupid.

Why attribute to stupidity what can adequately be explained by stock manipulation!

 

[Win2012R2]

it makes Musks' comment about "multiples" of the $16b look even more stupid

Why would anybody believe that guy?

 

[Joe NYC]

Why would anybody believe that guy?

Because he is the Thomas Edison and Alexander Graham Bell of our generation?

 

[Doug S]

Because he is the Thomas Edison and Alexander Graham Bell of our generating?

What's he invented? He didn't found Tesla, he bought it. He didn't do the engineering that made SpaceX's reusable rockets work. He was able to buy into Tesla and keep it going through the early lean years using money he got from having his other investors in a startup he was involved in buy him out because he was terrible to deal with. The reason he had money when he came to the US was he was born filthy rich - his parents own a f-ing emerald mine! In addition he's probably benefited more from US government subsidies than any other person in the history of the world. But that's the US economy for you - corporate welfare for the already rich but if you're poor screw you the deficit is too big we can't afford free school lunches for your kid.

 

[Joe NYC]

What's he invented? He didn't found Tesla, he bought it. He didn't do the engineering that made SpaceX's reusable rockets work. He was able to buy into Tesla and keep it going through the early lean years using money he got from having his other investors in a startup he was involved in buy him out because he was terrible to deal with. The reason he had money when he came to the US was he was born filthy rich - his parents own a f-ing emerald mine! In addition he's probably benefited more from US government subsidies than any other person in the history of the world. But that's the US economy for you - corporate welfare for the already rich but if you're poor screw you the deficit is too big we can't afford free school lunches for your kid.

Musk commercialized:
- EV
- low orbit communication satellite network
- low cost space launches

Sill to come - leadership in
- AI
- humanoid robots.

I think Musk already surpassed Thomas Edison and Alexander Graham Bell and he still has another ~30 years to go, to commercialize more groundbreaking discoveries.

Bringing humans to Mars, perhaps?

 

[dangerman1337]

Sill to come - leadership in
- AI
- humanoid robots.

Leather Jacket Man is leading in that regard. I mean AFAIK Nvidia's plan is using ML/AI/LLM so they can be the first ones to do humanoid Robotics.

 

[511]

https://www.reddit.com/r/intelstock/comments/1mlrfwy/18a_employee_intel_is_going_all_in_on_18a

 

[DZero]

DAMN, sacrifice that 5% performance, you have 70% yield and can be behind TSMC for a while, but can optimize well, like Huawei and Hisilicon is doing!
Heck, Intel has Microsoft on their side due x86, they can pull max. optimization with that!
They can ask Linux comunity and pull optimizations too!