Discussion Leading Edge Foundry Node advances (TSMC, Samsung Foundry, Intel) - [2020 - 2025]

[DisEnchantment]

TSMC's N7 EUV is now in its second year of production and N5 is contributing to revenue for TSMC this quarter. N3 is scheduled for 2022 and I believe they have a good chance to reach that target.


N7 performance is more or less understood.


This year and next year TSMC is mainly increasing capacity to meet demands.

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For Samsung the nodes are basically the same from 7LPP to 4 LPE, they just add incremental scaling boosters while the bulk of the tech is the same.

Samsung is already shipping 7LPP and will ship 6LPP in H2. Hopefully they fix any issues if at all.
They have two more intermediate nodes in between before going to 3GAE, most likely 5LPE will ship next year but for 4LPE it will probably be back to back with 3GAA since 3GAA is a parallel development with 7LPP enhancements.

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Samsung's 3GAA will go for HVM in 2022 most likely, similar timeframe to TSMC's N3.
There are major differences in how the transistor will be fabricated due to the GAA but density for sure Samsung will be behind N3.
But there might be advantages for Samsung with regards to power and performance, so it may be better suited for some applications.
But for now we don't know how much of this is true and we can only rely on the marketing material.

This year there should be a lot more available wafers due to lack of demand from Smartphone vendors and increased capacity from TSMC and Samsung.
Lots of SoCs which dont need to be top end will be fabbed with N7 or 7LPP/6LPP instead of N5, so there will be lots of wafers around.

Most of the current 7nm designs are far from the advertized density from TSMC and Samsung. There is still potential for density increase compared to currently shipping products.
N5 is going to be the leading foundry node for the next couple of years.

For a lot of fabless companies out there, the processes and capacity available are quite good.

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[511]

Why not? The pipeline is already set for TSMC. In 3-4 years it'll be legacy node.

It's contradicting statement few above 6+ and best at 5+

What else do you think it means? 6+ cores makes NO sense.

i have explained above We have U3/U5/U7/U9 so the 6+ can mean U7/U9 and 5+ means that it reaches 5+ ghz for U7/U9 SKU

 

[jpiniero]

How can half be at 6+ and the best at 5+ if it is clocks? If 6+ is clocks, what does best are 5+ mean?

First number is number of cores actually working (including cinebench accelerators), second is clocks. That's what I would say.

 

[Hitman928]

i have explained above We have U3/U5/U7/U9 so the 6+ can mean U7/U9 and 5+ means that it reaches 5+ ghz for U7/U9 SKU

This kind of makes sense but then you would think it would be 7+ or >6 as a U6 tier doesn’t exist but then I guess the leakers wouldn’t feel as special if they didn’t make things vague and confusing so that only they truly know what it means.

 

[511]

This kind of makes sense but then you would think it would be 7+ or >6 as a U6 tier doesn’t exist but then I guess the leakers wouldn’t feel as special if they didn’t make things vague and confusing so that only they truly know what it means.

7+ means no ultra 7 also 6+ includes 7 as you said there is no U6

 

[johnsonwax]

How can half be at 6+ and the best at 5+ if it is clocks? If 6+ is clocks, what does best are 5+ mean?

Simplest answer is that 'best' is typo of 'rest'.

 

[Josh128]

Nobody has a clue, thats why its a shat "leak".

 

[Hitman928]

7+ means no ultra 7 also 6+ includes 7 as you said there is no U6

7+ means 7 and higher so would include U7. 6+ would imply the existence of a U6.

 

[Hitman928]

Simplest answer is that 'best' is typo of 'rest'.

I think that’s highly doubtful.

 

[desrever]

I think he just switched the numbers, would make more sense if. "More than half is 5+, best is 6+. "

 

[Geddagod]

i have explained above We have U3/U5/U7/U9 so the 6+ can mean U7/U9 and 5+ means that it reaches 5+ ghz for U7/U9 SKU

This makes a lot of sense IMO.

This kind of makes sense but then you would think it would be 7+ or >6 as a U6 tier doesn’t exist but then I guess the leakers wouldn’t feel as special if they didn’t make things vague and confusing so that only they truly know what it means.

LOL deadass

I think he just switched the numbers, would make more sense if. "More than half is 5+, best is 6+. "

Would be insane if PTL mobile its 6GHz, or tbf even high 5GHz....

I'm guessing Raichu would clarify sometime soon.

 

[511]

m guessing Raichu would clarify sometime soon.

Soon means product launch?

 

[Geddagod]

Soon means product launch?

lol hopefully some time this week.
PTL unveil is supposed to be sometime next month IIRC.

 

[511]

Yes that's what I think as well they will launch during Innovate and say availability in October/November

 

[DrMrLordX]

No we can not because if tariffs are mentioned then it gets to P&N, I did not introduce tariffs so take it the issue with W&H.

There is a big difference between acknowledging tariffs and taking a stance for/against them. That's the line we're not meant to cross.

Intel 3 products came out in late 2024.

If I recall correctly, Sierra Forest came out in early-to-mid 2024 for a specific customer that had made a firm commitment to buy, with commercial availability of Intel 3 products coming later in the year. So TECHNICALLY it was like April/May 2024.

 

[511]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1957839526287540735

Intel is still doing construction at Fab34 maybe they are planning to expand it

 

[eek2121]

It can't be 6+ though otherwise they would be shouting through the roof

It’s clocks.

 

[511]

It’s clocks.

It's not 6+ I can bet

 

[Win2012R2]

There is a big difference between acknowledging tariffs and taking a stance for/against them. That's the line we're not meant to cross.

Tariffs are pretty material, they maybe will be on, maybe off, nobody knows at what rate they will be today or tomorrow, whilst I am not a lawyer from what I've read extensively on the subject they are clearly illegal, and even if they were not this crazy economic policy will be reverted in 3 years at the latest. Therefore who is seriously going to invest long term on the basis of this?

Intel is still doing construction at Fab34 maybe they are planning to expand it

Why would they expand it, just because it's almost complete? And current admin won't like Intel doing it in Ireland anyway, so zero chance of that

 

[511]

Why would they expand it, just because it's almost complete? And current admin won't like Intel doing it in Ireland anyway, so zero chance of that

expansion mean from the current size they are planning to increase the amount of wafers to be produced here aka ramping as for second part they have signed a deal with Apollo so they are contractually obligated to do so otherwise give Apollo $Millions

 

[Win2012R2]

What if ARM will make the stocks processors with Intel?

And compete directly with their licensees? I guess that was inevitable

 

[DZero]

And compete directly with their licensees? I guess that was inevitable

Actually, they pulled it. So expect a challengue from them,

 

[Hitman928]

And compete directly with their licensees? I guess that was inevitable

SoftBank is acquiring Ampere. So you’ll have Arm and one of their main independent licensees now under one umbrella. Seems pretty obvious what the intent is.

 

[Win2012R2]

SoftBank is acquiring Ampere

Ampere did not go anywhere, total flop.

ARM however licenses cores to hyperscalers, I wonder if the new "order of things" will be that they have to buy full CPUs from ARM

 

[Win2012R2]

Actually, they pulled it

What did they pull - all server chip licenses?

 

[511]

And compete directly with their licensees? I guess that was inevitable

Intel has the highest ARM License anyway