IAteYourMother
Lifer
- Nov 3, 2004
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I think you can also interpret it as their HFA being worth the extra half point, which is hard to argue with. I think the teams are pretty even on a neutral field. I wouldn't bet on this unless the line went up to SEA-4.5
Imported
Lifer
- Sep 2, 2000
- 14,679
- 23
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Philly also uses posters/cards/whatever on the sidelines like they use in college. Was interesting to watch when I saw it live at Lambeau.
That's exactly my interpretation of -3.5.
Considering that the Niners are a 'hotter' team right now and have all their offensive weapons, it wouldn't even surprise me if they were a slight favorite on a neutral field. Not to mention the Niners are the defending NFC champs, so their playoff experience is much deeper than Russell Wilson's at this point.
- Nov 30, 2005
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I expected the line to be 2.5 simply because of the fact the Niners are so hot also because they are more of a public team then the Seahawks are (traditionally anyway). 3.5 seems a tad high to me. /shrug
KT
gorcorps
aka Brandon
- Jul 18, 2004
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Manning destroys the Broncos' chances of winning by giving away what his "Omaha" call means:
http://www.denverbroncos.com/multim...n_Omaha_/6b7ee720-ed9e-408b-a36f-9bc6b2a3ee8e
http://www.denverbroncos.com/multim...n_Omaha_/6b7ee720-ed9e-408b-a36f-9bc6b2a3ee8e
Capt Caveman
Lifer
- Jan 30, 2005
- 34,543
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dbk
Lifer
- Apr 23, 2004
- 17,685
- 10
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It will be interesting game on many levels, if the running game stalls how long will McDaniels stay with it? Can the Patriots mount a pass rush against PM? Luck got good protection later in the game, PM will eat your secondary alive if he gets it. Anyway, may the better team win and represent the AFC in the SB and bring home a win..
I love Peyton's answer to that question. The fact he did it with a straight face made it even funnier. Its hard not to like the guy...
- Nov 30, 2005
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Jimzz
Diamond Member
- Oct 23, 2012
- 4,399
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That is not high. Usually, home teams are a 3 point favorite, then they work off that. So, the home team is basically a 0.5 point favorite. A 2.5 would have put SF as the favorite for the game. I do not see how SF can be the favorite given the last two times they played in Seattle.
I do not bet on NFL games but I would bet on Seattle to cover this weekend.
If I understand how lines are set, they are not simply, "Who Vegas thinks will win and by how much" but as much as, "Where is the balance between where we think the end score will be and where betters think and adjust the line accordingly to maximize the house earnings."
Which is absolutely silly, when you think about it. The starting line is based on the handicappers who should know what they are doing. Then it is adjusted based on how the public (who knows shit) bets? So, what you're saying is, the ending line is based on what all the homers and morons bet on, and not what the people actually paid to handicap think.
- Nov 30, 2005
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There is usually a lot of recency bias in these things, which is why I expected it to be lower. I am probably wrong, but I just feel SF is the better team right now and I expect it to
I guess I was underestimating what the books thought the bettors would be doing. Whatever, I still like SF at 3.5 point dogs. They are a different team now than they were in those previous games.
KT
Edit: of course one really smart guy that I read essentially says I am nuts and he is rarely wrong.
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Harvin still not cleared. Even if he is cleared he cannot be counted on to be on the field or prepared. The best Seattle can hope for is KO returns and some spot plays already in the playbook. They obviously got there without him and almost beat SF in SF last month so it is not all doom and gloom but if SEA wants to rekindle their offense they better not have been pinning that hope on Harvin. (Who is still a great player and injuries happen (hip). And the concussion is nothing about him being injury prone. Not down on him at all. I hope he gets better and I love seeing him on the field, if not for anything else to force the other team to play honest against the pass.)
skyking
Lifer
- Nov 21, 2001
- 22,879
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I'm a fair weather fan at best, so bear with me. My big concern going in is Wilson's pass accuracy.
I noticed the last two games he missed behind some short routes, and just got very lucky to dodge an interception. It was uncharacteristic of his performance before that.
If THAT Wilson shows up they could get plagued by the turnovers that they usually live by. If he has his 'A' game back, I have less worries.
I noticed the last two games he missed behind some short routes, and just got very lucky to dodge an interception. It was uncharacteristic of his performance before that.
If THAT Wilson shows up they could get plagued by the turnovers that they usually live by. If he has his 'A' game back, I have less worries.
dainthomas
Lifer
- Dec 7, 2004
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It was extremely classless of the Saints to obviously target him like they did.
- Nov 30, 2005
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AMDZen
Lifer
- Apr 15, 2004
- 12,589
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Yea whatever. Any other receiver or the same catches against any other team would have happened the same way. Russell Wilson lofting passes up left Harvin out to dry, if anyone is to blame its him.
Imported
Lifer
- Sep 2, 2000
- 14,679
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dainthomas
Lifer
- Dec 7, 2004
- 14,965
- 3,952
- 136
Did you watch the play? Wilson threw the ball high to get it over the cover guy. Which might have worked if the other defender hadn't come in and rammed his helmet into his face. The Saints have had all year to get used to the rules, and yet it appears they still believe slamming into a guy's head with your helmet is a-ok. (As evidenced by the fact that they did it twice).
Yeah, whatever. You need to watch the plays again. The Saint defender on the flagged hit:
(a) did not make a play on the ball
(b) lowered his head and hit with the crown of his helmet
(c) tucked his arms and left his feet
(d) targeted and hit Harvin's head
(e) did not even challenge the flag (i.e. he knew it was a penalty) and he and his coaches/teammates were high fiving.
It is absolutely classless to break the rules, rules in place to protect players short and long term health, and celebrate hurting another player.
This would be no different from a pass rusher deliberately going low on Manning with an immediate flag thrown, and after seeing Manning go down in pain, hopping up and down celebrating your cheap shot.
The second hit was a forearm shiver that due to how they fell resulted in the forearm pinning Harvin's neck and head against the turf when they went down. This is one of those gray areas as the rule is you cannot strike the head or neck; probably not deserving of a penalty but seeing as Kam has been penalized a number of times for hard, front on hits with never hitting the head or neck I am surprised they didn't call it.
The link also has the face mask against Baldwin where, after the defender knew he was beat, ripped of his helmet. Hence it flew. That should have been 15 yards. Ditto the horse collar on Wilson.
I support the Saints playing tough, hard nosed playoff football. But hitting defenseless receivers in the head, vicious face masks, hitting QBs low, etc. is not "tough" football but "cheap" football. You cross the line from tough football to cheap when the play is illegal and is illegal because it can lead to player injury.
RE: Wilson. I noted earlier in this thread Wilson made the mistake of not looking off the Safety. It is Wilson's fault Harvin was put in a position to get blasted. It was the Saint DB's fault he led with his head and aimed at Harvin's head--a big hit did not require such. It was tasteless from a classless players and coaches to celebrate it and it makes the entire Saint organization look bad after bountygate where coaches and players intentionally tried to injure competitors.
Ps- Look at the first Harvin play again. Clear PI by the textbook. Harvin's arm is clearly being pulled back before the ball even got there. For all the whining about Seattle's DBs bumping and clutching it isn't like it is a oneway street.
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