Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
That, at least, is the conclusion of Steve Sailer, a conservative columnist at the Web magazine Vdare.com and a veteran student of presidential I.Q.'s. During the last presidential campaign Mr. Sailer estimated from Mr. Bush's SAT score (1206) that his I.Q. was in the mid-120's, about 10 points lower than Al Gore's.
Total BS formula . . .
For SAT scores before 1996 -- before the "re-centering," which raised the average SAT back to 500 -- Detterman provides this formula: (.126 X SAT Combined Score) - (.0000471 X SAT Combined Score X SAT Combined Score) + 40.063 = IQ. (data in charts "a" and "b" below)
In essence, you plot an IQ surrogate against SAT which produces a "formula" . . . but that formula models a population NOT an individual. For any given person, the output of the formula is meaningless. I would bet the farm that Bush would not score 1SD above the mean on the Stanford-Binet, WAIS, or Weschler. Curiously, all of the "guessing" by these alleged IQ "experts" produce strikingly similar results . . . if you always use the same flawed logic . . . it's not surprising you produce the same biased result with replication.
Mr. Kerry's SAT score is not known, but now Mr. Sailer has done a comparison of the intelligence tests in the candidates' military records. They are not formal I.Q. tests, but Mr. Sailer says they are similar enough to make reasonable extrapolations.
Here's a good analogy, my wife has big boobs and Anna Nicole Smith has bigger boobs. But only a fool would say ANS's big boobs would produce appropriate nutrition for my newborn. But, but, but . . . I thought breast size correlated with milk production??
What about good high school grades and matriculation at Yale? How about good college grades and matriculation at Harvard Business School? A VERY strong population correlation falls apart when you talk about certain individuals.
Mr. Bush's score on the Air Force Officer Qualifying Test at age 22 again suggests that his I.Q was the mid-120's, putting Mr. Bush in about the 95th percentile of the population, according to Mr. Sailer. Mr. Kerry's I.Q. was about 120, in the 91st percentile, according to Mr. Sailer's extrapolation of his score at age 22 on the Navy Officer Qualification Test.
This puts a cap on the BS comparison. No
expert in intelligence testing would tell you that mid-120s is different from about 120. It's like saying you know for certain that more people voted for Bush than Gore in Florida. If the difference between scores is within the margin for error of the test . . . the scores are IDENTICAL. It is statistically impossible to distinguish them. You gain statistical power as you replicate the result but if it's a bad test . . . like most of the tests cited . . . you wind up with multiple bad assessments . . . which is again useless.
In sum, the only way to know if Kerry is likely to score higher than Bush on an IQ test . . . is to have them take the same test multiple times and then compare the results. If you made it a battery of tests then you could avoid potential biases (such as Bush being penalized by a test with a high verbal content).