Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

[manly]

Texas isn't exactly in play, but has been leaning farther and farther left for years. In 2016, it was one of the few states that actually swung more left in the presidential election.

I haven't seen this, but I could be remembering wrong. Demographically, I was actually very hopeful that TX would be a swing state sooner rather than later but it's taking much longer than I had previously imagined. In theory, Texas could be purple.

In 2020, Trump was only +6 so that's not that wide of a gulf. But one election isn't a trend. With the exception of one Beto O'Rourke Senate campaign, pretty much all statewide elections are comfortable GOP wins (yeah it's not as bad as MS/AL contests but the outcome is never in doubt).

I would agree that Florida statewide results were kookoo in 2020 and esp. 2022, but it's a bit early to write off that state for a generation IMO.
If Dems can ever become competitive in either FL or TX, the Electoral College math becomes difficult for the GOP even though the entire thing is rigged in their favor.

 

[Amused]

I am upset with forum administrators.
They block me for no reason... because I oppose Kamala and left wing.

Why does this sound perfect when spoken with a Russian accent?

 

[nickqt]

Remember the house vote is by states, so no way Trump wouldn't win that regardless of whether or not the house is dem controlled. Because Wyoming and California would have the same number of vote.

Here's a good rundown on what happens if neither candidate gets to 270.

Electoral College Ties - 270toWin

How is the president elected if the electoral vote ends in a tie or no candidate reaches 270 electoral votes?

www.270towin.com

The incoming House votes for President. Each State gets 1 vote. Currently 26 R - 22 D with 2 split delegations, but that could change.

The incoming Senate votes for Vice-President. Each Senator gets to vote. If the House cannot elect the President, then the Vice-President becomes Acting President on January 20.

 

[MrPickins]

I haven't seen this, but I could be remembering wrong. Demographically, I was actually very hopeful that TX would be a swing state sooner rather than later but it's taking much longer than I had previously imagined. In theory, Texas could be purple.

In 2020, Trump was only +6 so that's not that wide of a gulf. But one election isn't a trend. With the exception of one Beto O'Rourke Senate campaign, pretty much all statewide elections are comfortable GOP wins (yeah it's not as bad as MS/AL contests but the outcome is never in doubt).

I would agree that Florida statewide results were kookoo in 2020 and esp. 2022, but it's a bit early to write off that state for a generation IMO.
If Dems can ever become competitive in either FL or TX, the Electoral College math becomes difficult for the GOP even though the entire thing is rigged in their favor.

You and I are on the same page with that.

It's slow, but TX getting there:

Texas Presidential Election Voting History - 270toWin

Information on how the residents of Texas have voted in presidential elections. Includes trends and polls for the 2024 election, as well as a Texas voting history and narrative.

www.270towin.com

 

[esquared]

Didn't know where this should go but getting the teamsters vote will only help Harris.
Remember the orange menace interview with elmo the other day?
The orange menace was giddy that elmo was able to fire striking workers.

Union boss who spoke at the RNC blasts Trump over Elon Musk interview​

Union boss who spoke at the RNC blasts Trump over Elon Musk interview

The head of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters joined unionized labor chiefs blasting former President Donald Trump over his suggestion during an interview with Elon Musk that striking workers ought to be fired.

www.yahoo.com

 

[sandorski]

Anyone notice how enthused people are after Kamala went Pro-Labour?

 

[Perknose]

Anyone notice how enthused people are after Kamala went Pro-Labour?

Are you Canadian or British. I don't want to belabour this point.

 

[sandorski]

Are you Canadian or British. I don't want to belabour this point.

Canadian

 

[Perknose]

Canadian

How's the tank?

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

^^^ Full of Hockey Pucks

 

[Roger Wilco]

Seems good…

 

[gothuevos]

Seems good…

View attachment 105391

With the GOP's EC advantage, this number still needs to be higher.

 

[brycejones]

With the GOP's EC advantage, this number still needs to be higher.

Gotta find a way to fill that diaper.

 

[repoman0]

With the GOP's EC advantage, this number still needs to be higher.

If Harris actually wins by 4 points the democrats are almost certain to win the EC.

 

[Lost_in_the_HTTP]

Almost certain isn't certain enough.

 

[brycejones]

Almost certain isn't certain enough.

We're still almost 3 months out from election day. There is no certainty until after the votes are cast.

 

[Muse]

Former student of Tim Walz extols him saying her experience in his class was pivotal in her survival:

Former Student: Tim Walz Doesn't Know He Saved My Life

“It’s pretty amazing what one person can do,” Patti Miller, a former student at Mankato West High School, told The Daily Beast.

www.thedailybeast.com

 

[repoman0]

Almost certain isn't certain enough.

It’s the best you’re going to get with the EC in place even if she wins the popular vote by 10 since you can still contrive extremely unlikely vote distributions where Trump takes it. Almost certain has a meaning in probability theory and I was using it in that sense.

Almost surely - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

 

[Stokely]

I hope the Democrats continue to work like they are behind (how many times has a sports team taken their foot off the gas only to either lose or make things way closer....) Nobody knows just how much the GOP has rigged and is going to rig things in certain areas, so assume "a lot".

I personally wouldn't feel confident if Harris was up by 20 right now, a lot can happen and the public is largely a bunch of morons.

 

[sandorski]

How's the tank?

Since Afghanistan, it gets taken out for a Moose hunt every now and then.

 

[hal2kilo]

This is what somebody who thinks he's a political genius says when reality smacks him right in the face.

"I haven't seen anything like this": GOP pollster says Harris took massive "advantage" from Trump

Trump appears to have "lost control" and donors fear he's "committing political suicide," says Frank Luntz.

www.salon.com

Veteran GOP pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz told CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday that Vice President Kamala Harris, riding a surge of enthusiasm surrounding her candidacy and bringing in people uninterested in supporting either former president Donald Trump or President Joe Biden, has changed the pool of voters who will decide the November election. If trends continue in this direction, Luntz suggested, Democrats may not only win the presidency and retake the House, but also cling on to the Senate despite a lopsided map that favors Republicans.

I hate that man.

 

[Stopsignhank]

Reminds me of those guys who were so proud of their "I would rather be a russian than a democrat" shirts. They even have Trump dressed in a Russian uniform.

 

[skyking]

Dickmushroom on day 1.

 

[hal2kilo]

A communist anthem!

This the the song that MLB should have shoved into the mid inning stretch. I can't stand God Bless America.

 

[Stokely]

Harris and Walz need to keep smacking Trump and Vance not only with abortion but with Project 2025. They are trying to slither away but I doubt anyone buys it other than their idiot cultists (ex. 1a pic a couple posts up).

Hidden-camera video shows Project 2025 co-author discussing his secret work preparing for a second Trump term

Vought said his group, the Center for Renewing America, was secretly drafting hundreds of executive orders, regulations, and memos that would lay the groundwork for rapid action on Trump’s plans if he wins, describing his work as creating “shadow” agencies. He claimed that Trump has “blessed” his organization and “he’s very supportive of what we do.”


“Eighty percent of my time is working on the plans of what’s necessary to take control of these bureaucracies,” Vought said. “And we are working doggedly on that, whether it’s destroying their agencies’ notion of independence … whether that is thinking through how the deportation would work.”