Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

[fskimospy]

I don't think that the "you've never had it so good, stop complaining" argument has ever worked when addressing inequality!

I didn’t say stop complaining, I’m just stating factual reality.

 

[linkgoron]

Definitely - free trade makes goods cheaper and therefore reduces inflation.

But yes, the median American has a lot more buying power today than in 1980.

Maybe for stuff like electronics etc, but surely not for housing.

 

[WelshBloke]

Seems like the relationship since 1980 has been pretty beneficial for the median American.

There's a lot of people below the median!

 

[Fanatical Meat]

I doubt they abolish it. After all, Republicans have already abolished it for the things they care about. Republicans love the filibuster as it currently exists because their opponents need 60 votes to enact their polices while they only need 50.

For example you might need 60 votes to repeal the ACA but you only need 51 to remove all funding for it.

Honestly I hope republicans kill the filibuster, as we both know it needs to go and our party has not had the balls to do it.
Sure there will be pain but there also will be accountability and that’s what’s important.

 

[WelshBloke]

I didn’t say stop complaining..

I mean it very much sounds like you are!

 

[fskimospy]

There's a lot of people below the median!

Is there a different metric you would like to use instead?

If you look at real wages over the last four years people below the median have actually benefitted the most!

 

[fskimospy]

I mean it very much sounds like you are!

People were in effect saying the average American has become poorer over the last 40 years. I am simply pointing out this is not true.

 

[linkgoron]

I mean it very much sounds like you are!

Don't you see? Number X that is defined in some way is bigger than number Y it must mean that now is better!

 

[fskimospy]

Maybe for stuff like electronics etc, but surely not for housing.

The good thing is real income covers all expenditures. You are right though, some things like housing have become less affordable. I talk about how we should fix this a lot!

 

[fskimospy]

Don't you see? Number X that is defined in some way is bigger than number Y it must mean that now is better!

So to be clear you think BLS is incorrectly calculating real median household income? Or is it that you have a different metric that you think better represents the prosperity of Americans over time?

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Honestly I hope republicans kill the filibuster, as we both know it needs to go and our party has not had the balls to do it.
Sure there will be pain but there also will be accountability and that’s what’s important.

The party we voted for is dead. There will be no more fair elections in this nation. Trump tried to overthrow the government and overturn the election in 2020 back when he was actually somewhat accountable under law. You are living in a fantasy land thinking he won't do it now that he's not accountable at all under law.

 

[K1052]

If we deport all our farm workers it will be interesting to watch food prices go through the roof.

Plus tariffs on stuff we don't even grow here. Americans have gotten used to walking into a grocery story and having produce/fruits from all over the world on demand at low prices even in the off season.

 

[WelshBloke]

People were in effect saying the average American has become poorer over the last 40 years. I am simply pointing out this is not true.

There's a lot of ways of defining poor, once you get above the "ok we aren't defining poor as starving to death" thing it becomes about equality and an equitable sharing of the wealth of a nation.

 

[fskimospy]

There's a lot of ways of defining poor, once you get above the "ok we aren't defining poor as starving to death" thing it becomes about equality and an equitable sharing of the wealth of a nation.

I am defining poverty or affluence as the sum total of material wellbeing the median American household can afford. It is considerably higher now than in 1980.

Maybe despite this people are sad because their neighbors got even more but it doesn’t change the underlying fact.

 

[linkgoron]

People were in effect saying the average American has become poorer over the last 40 years. I am simply pointing out this is not true.

So to be clear you think BLS is incorrectly calculating real median household income? Or is it that you have a different metric that you think better represents the prosperity of Americans over time?

It is one number, that does not describe how things have changed and in what way.

Is healthcare cheaper or more expensive?
Is housing cheaper or more expensive?
Is education cheaper or more expensive?
Are electronics cheaper or more expensive?
Is travel cheaper?
Is power/electricity/fuel cheaper?
Is travel cheaper?
are groceries cheaper?
Is clothing cheaper?

For some of the above the answer is yes, for others the answer is no. Inflation is a calculation based on a definition of a weighted bag of "goods" or "services" which may or may not be true or relevant today as it was in the 80s. It is also one number which fails to describe life as something complex with many parts. Some things might be much worse or much better, and you can't use one number to say definitively that the median American is better off today.

 

[Fanatical Meat]

The party we voted for is dead. There will be no more fair elections in this nation. Trump tried to overthrow the government and overturn the election in 2020 back when he was actually somewhat accountable under law. You are living in a fantasy land thinking he won't do it now that he's not accountable at all under law.

Oh no don’t mistake me, he has no plans to leave office and I fully expect him to say his first term was stolen from him by the Russia hoax and stay in office.
He is not the type guy who has a succession plan, his kids aren’t charismatic enough to rally the MAGA troops it ultimately will fall apart when he gets sick or dies.

 

[nakedfrog]

Maybe for stuff like electronics etc, but surely not for housing.

https://www.npr.org/2024/06/20/nx-s1-5005972/home-prices-wages-paychecks-rent-housing-harvard-report

Home prices are rising 2x faster than income

Low interest rates and limited housing stock helped fuel the market’s recovery and pushed home prices higher, but wages failed to keep pace.

lbmjournal.com

The average house-price-to-income ratio has climbed to 5.8 nationwide — more than double the recommended ratio of 2.6.

• Home values have soared 162% since 2000, while income has increased only 78%.
• House prices have increased 2x faster than income since 1985 and 2.1x faster than income since 2000.
• If home prices had grown at the same rate as income since 2000, the median U.S. home would cost nearly $294,000 — about 32% less than today’s price of $433,100.
• To afford a home, Americans need an average income of roughly $166,600, but the median household income is just $74,580.

 

[fskimospy]

It is one number, that does not describe how things have changed and in what way.

Is healthcare cheaper or more expensive?
Is housing cheaper or more expensive?
Is education cheaper or more expensive?
Are electronics cheaper or more expensive?
Is travel cheaper?
Is power/electricity/fuel cheaper?
Is travel cheaper?
are groceries cheaper?

For some of the above the answer is yes, for others the answer is no. Inflation is a calculation based on a definition of a weighted bag of "goods" or "services" which may or may not be true or relevant today as it was in the 80s. It is also one number which fails to describe life as something complex with many parts. Some things might be much worse or much better, and you can't use one number to say definitively that the median American is better off today.

All of those things are accounted for in real income calculation and the basket is adjusted over time to better reflect the consumption habits of the population. Some things go up, some things go down, it looks at it all together. I mean this is why BLS exists.

For what I’m saying to be wrong this calculation would need to be wildly wrong and I think if someone is arguing that the burden of evidence to point out that failure in calculation is on them.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

Oh no don’t mistake me, he has no plans to leave office and I fully expect him to say his first term was stolen from him by the Russia hoax and stay in office.
He is not the type guy who has a succession plan, his kids aren’t charismatic enough to rally the MAGA troops it ultimately will fall apart when he gets sick or dies.

He will pass unchecked power to his successors; it's heritage foundation running this nation until this nation exists no more.

 

[ondma]

Have more total income so the median American can afford more goods and services than they used to. (About 40% more than in 1980)

That is not the whole story though. Lets look at home ownership. In 1985 the Price to income ratio of a home was 3.5. Today the ratio is 5.8. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/median-house-prices-vs-income-us/ In addition, the super low interest rates people were accustomed to in the late Obama and Trump years are also gone, making purchasing a home a very difficult hurdle now. Even worse, for instance in 1950 the ratio was less than 3.0.

So again, as I said in a post a few weeks ago, if you are asset rich, either stocks or real estate, you probably are doing well. For those just starting out, or in the lower income brackets with few or no assets to appreciate, they are seriously hurting.

 

[K1052]

That is not the whole story though. Lets look at home ownership. In 1985 the Price to income ratio of a home was 3.5. Today the ratio is 5.8. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/median-house-prices-vs-income-us/ In addition, the super low interest rates people were accustomed to in the late Obama and Trump years are also gone, making purchasing a home a very difficult hurdle now. Even worse, for instance in 1950 the ratio was less than 3.0.

Do we expect this to improve or worsen with tariffs on non-domestic construction materials and driving millions out of the construction labor workforce?

 

[fskimospy]

That is not the whole story though. Lets look at home ownership. In 1985 the Price to income ratio of a home was 3.5. Today the ratio is 5.8. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/median-house-prices-vs-income-us/ In addition, the super low interest rates people were accustomed to in the late Obama and Trump years are also gone, making purchasing a home a very difficult hurdle now. Even worse, for instance in 1950 the ratio was less than 3.0.

It really is as close to the whole story as any one metric is going to get you. (Owner equivalent rent is included in inflation calculations) In fact, increases in housing costs were one of the primary drivers of inflation the last two years as it’s a lagging indicator.

 

[DarthKyrie]

Do we expect this to improve or worsen with tariffs on non-domestic construction materials and driving millions out of the construction labor workforce?

Magical Reichwing thinking will tell you that it will drive the cost of homes down.

 

[fskimospy]

Do we expect this to improve or worsen with tariffs on non-domestic construction materials and driving millions out of the construction labor workforce?

Well Trump did say that once he deports millions of people that will free up the housing they are living in.

Not sure how many native born Americans want to live in those places though.

 

[hal2kilo]

Oh no don’t mistake me, he has no plans to leave office and I fully expect him to say his first term was stolen from him by the Russia hoax and stay in office.
He is not the type guy who has a succession plan, his kids aren’t charismatic enough to rally the MAGA troops it ultimately will fall apart when he gets sick or dies.

That's what is also worrying me, Trump's health. President Vance? Seriously.