Kamala vs the Orange Felon - Presidential Race 2024 - Polls, News, Etc...

[Indus]

2 words


Pee
Tape

I'll settle for Polonium in his burger.

 

[evident]

polls are all over this place...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849469028084920628

 

[MrSquished]

polls are all over this place...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849469028084920628

I've seen this and other polls.

I'm worried mostly about Nevada and Michigan. But I feel pretty comfortable about the other swing states.

 

[SteveGrabowski]

I hear Allred vs Cruz may be in the margin of error.

I wish. Cruz is literally running ads saying Allred will sterilize your children and force sex changes on them in the schools. Not super PAC ads, actual Ted Cruz ads.

 

[alien42]

I've seen this and other polls.

I'm worried mostly about Nevada and Michigan. But I feel pretty comfortable about the other swing states.

You feel comfortable about GA?

I wish I did.

 

[manly]

You feel comfortable about GA?

I wish I did.

The 7 battleground states are all de facto tied. There's nothing to feel comfortable about right now.

According to 538's polling average, Trump is +1.5 in GA.

Georgia : President: general election : 2024 Polls

The latest political polls and polling averages from FiveThirtyEight.

projects.fivethirtyeight.com

 

[gothuevos]

I've seen this and other polls.

I'm worried mostly about Nevada and Michigan. But I feel pretty comfortable about the other swing states.

I understand Nevada, but she has always polled well in MI.

 

[gothuevos]

And then you have this ..to be tied nationally would indicate an easy Trump win electorally.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849770666049818637

 

[Indus]

And then you have this ..to be tied nationally would indicate an easy Trump win electorally.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849770666049818637

Do we really trust NYT anymore?

I'd put more weight in IPSOS/ AP polls that're untainted.

 

[akenbennu]

Typically a tied poll is about a 3-4 point R advantage. I am not hopeful at this point.

 

[Brainonska511]

Typically a tied poll is about a 3-4 point R advantage. I am not hopeful at this point.

Has polling been that accurate as of late? Remember the 2022 "red wave" that was basically a whimper?

 

[Roger Wilco]

Hmm

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849485890998964326

 

[K1052]

I've seen this and other polls.

I'm worried mostly about Nevada and Michigan. But I feel pretty comfortable about the other swing states.

Michigan was Biden's strongest swing state. Probably the one I'm not really concerned about at all.

 

[K1052]

And then you have this ..to be tied nationally would indicate an easy Trump win electorally.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849770666049818637

This is very unlikely. You'd be seeing a major collapse in state and district polls which does not exist.

Something weird with the sample probably. I am pretty dubious about a 4 point national swing in two weeks.

 

[MrSquished]

Michigan was Biden's strongest swing state. Probably the one I'm not really concerned about at all.

He got over 100K uncommitted votes this year.. Still not enough to lose to Trump if the margins stand from the last election, but, enough to worry about.

 

[K1052]

Surveys for a while have indicated Harris has picked up white voters, mostly women, compared to Biden at Trump's expense. If this manifests in actual votes it would be a major advantage especially in states like PA/MI/WI.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849806812406505829

 

[K1052]

He got over 100K uncommitted votes this year.. Still not enough to lose to Trump if the margins stand from the last election, but, enough to worry about.

We do have an entirely different candidate now. Polling looks good and no early warning signs out of the absentee vote. Reps have pretty much stopped shoveling money into the senate race there too.

 

[Muse]

I wish. Cruz is literally running ads saying Allred will sterilize your children and force sex changes on them in the schools. Not super PAC ads, actual Ted Cruz ads.

I saw one of those, probably watching the GA vs TX game last Saturday. Cringe-worthy ad, impossible for me to believe, of course (I'm in progressive town in CA).

 

[Muse]

Michigan was Biden's strongest swing state. Probably the one I'm not really concerned about at all.

Michael Moore predicted MI for Trump before the 2020 general in a hall setting in MI, raising eyebrows and, I'm assuming, gasps. He's predicting MI for Harris this time.

Seeing Moore's glum facial expression at 8PM Pacific Time on election night network election coverage in 2016 (he was in-studio) I knew a dark cloud was passing over America that wouldn't budge for 4 years.

 

[MrSquished]

So far women are turning out much higher compared to men. Women do show up higher in general compared to men but in some states it's 10% more.

 

[K1052]

So far women are turning out much higher compared to me. Women do show up higher in general compared to men but in some states it's 10% more.

Yes, women vote at significantly higher rates especially in a presidential cycle. The campaigns have taken very different approaches where Harris does everything possible to court these voters and Trump tells them they should be grateful he is so amazing. Not exactly a mystery why surveys are showing a historically large gender gap really.

 

[K1052]

I know a lot of liberals are at least somewhat frustrated with Harris spending so much time going after the Haley voters but these people exist in substantial numbers in swing state suburbia. They are overwhelmingly educated high propensity voters and thus quite valuable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849821931685499135

 

[MrPickins]

Yes, women vote at significantly higher rates especially in a presidential cycle. The campaigns have taken very different approaches where Harris does everything possible to court these voters and Trump tells them they should be grateful he is so amazing. Not exactly a mystery why surveys are showing a historically large gender gap really.

Well, that and the fact that reproductive rights are hanging by a thread (where they still exist).

 

[Indus]

I know a lot of liberals are at least somewhat frustrated with Harris spending so much time going after the Haley voters but these people exist in substantial numbers in swing state suburbia. They are overwhelmingly educated high propensity voters and thus quite valuable.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849821931685499135

If Trump and Republicans are willing to sell out America to Russia in order to terminate the constitution.. I have absolutely no problem with going after American voters in suburbia!

 

[K1052]

Pew post election survey indicated Biden won 18-29s 59-35 over Trump. LV screen indicates a potential margin gain of 4 points for Harris.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1849792940601692252