Just an observation . . .

[sportage]

So who's getting some Trump mugshot merch?

I'm seriously tempted.

Hell, just wait for the movie

 

[Charmonium]

@sportage - that reminds of the old Apple tv ad where the woman throws a hammer into the screen.

 

[sportage]

If hell freezes over and Trump is reelected, Trump will hang that mugshot on the oval office wall right behind his oval office chair so it will be the first thing people see when entering. And those sitting in the oval office meeting with Trump, that picture will be glaring down at them. It will be quite unnerving to say the least.

 

[Charmonium]

One 538 poll has Christie as #2 behind Trump (34 v. 14)

 

[hal2kilo]

If hell freezes over and Trump is reelected, Trump will hang that mugshot on the oval office wall right behind his oval office chair so it will be the first thing people see when entering. And those sitting in the oval office meeting with Trump, that picture will be glaring down at them. It will be quite unnerving to say the least.

View attachment 84890

Pay no attention to the man surrounded by the gold curtains!

 

[Charmonium]

Wow. Uncle Joe in the Nam with the Viet Cong. Sounds like a song for you musicians out there.

The evil capitalism virus has taken hold there as well.

I grew up during that war and it ended the year before I was 18 thank .. . . whomever. Pretty sure I could have gotten out of on at least 3 separate grounds (I'm a pretty sick puppy). Still, it was almost like a birthday present.

I wonder how kids (not to mention vets) were permanently scarred by that otherwise had their lives turned into a living hell. May the universe have mercy on them.

 

[Charmonium]

Christie is going to stalk Trump if the latter keeps avoiding the debates.

CC has always been a very proficient attack dog.

 

[Charmonium]

Jack Smith just requested (DC) judge to issue what seems like an extremely restrictive gag order

 

[Charmonium]

Hello friend. Are confused as fvck about the GOP? Well, here's the skinny.

18 Congressional districts that elected an R also voted for Biden. The GOP majority in the house is 9.
So you can see right there their compunction for destruction.

Kevin can't do anything at all that will force those 18 House R's to vote for something like impeachment.

 

[Charmonium]

I wasn't around for most of the McCarthy commie witch hunt era. I suspect some of you were. Doesn't the current state of affairs remind you of that.

 

[Pohemi]

I wasn't around for most of the McCarthy commie witch hunt era. I suspect some of you were. Doesn't the current state of affairs remind you of that.

I wasn't around for it, but have some limited knowledge of what happened with McCarthy and his commie witch hunt as you put it, as he was from my state.

At that time, McCarthy was trying to stoke "red fear", targeting supposed communists and communist sympathisers. Most of those targeted were not communists, of course.

Now, it's any Democrats in power or at least in the spotlight that they try to concoct bullshit to target them. Similar in some ways I suppose, but it feels like they have a wider scope now. Instead of so-called communists, now it's those "extreme leftists". Which means supposedly any Democrat, according to them.

 

[Charmonium]

I think we might be seeing more *ahem* news clips of the donald than from when he was actually in office.

 

[Charmonium]

If the Krudashians ever get into politics, we're boned.

 

[Charmonium]

I don't normally watch Chris Hayes (8pm EDT, msnbc) but the boy is growing on me.

Tonight's lede was this. Looking at 30 special state elections (SSEs) in '23 so far, the Ds have been beating their normal "margin" by 11 points.

What does that mean?

Say you've got an R district where the Rs normally win by say 5 points. Now, there's an SSE and Ds win by 12. That's a swing from their normal margin of 17 points.

For a D district, same thing just different. Normal D win is 3 pts, they win by 11, that's a swing of 8.

Now statistically, is this significant? Hard for me to say. What I remember from stats is that sampling tends to be asymptotic. That means the accuracy of a sample as the sample size increases tends to go higher but at a slower and slower rate.

In the US there have to be thousands upon thousands of SSE districts. So your first impulse is, well, it's within the normal MoE (margin of error).

Maybe. But maybe not.

 

[Charmonium]

Do you realize that the hundreds of idiots sentenced to prison time for J6 are going to be ridiculed if not butt fucked by technically brain dead gang member lifers. Yo holmes. My bitbull smarter than you. And he ain't bright.

 

[Charmonium]

Bobbie "The Grifter" Menendez is back in soup with another indictment. But you know what. If the Cult of Dumpster is going to vote for him, then I'm sending RM back to the Senate.

Fvck you and the cockroach you rode in on.

 

[Muse]

Pay no attention to the man surrounded by the gold curtains!

And gold skin and hair. The joke's on you, there's nobody there!

 

[Muse]

Christie is going to stalk Trump if the latter keeps avoiding the debates.

CC has always been a very proficient attack dog.

That's exactly why Trump will not get on stage with Christie. He'd pee his pants.

 

[Charmonium]

Will D's rescue the KKK (klown kar kaucus) from themselves?

That's a tough call. I know they want to. The thing is, when the opposition, buys the horse and rope, finds a strong tree branch, throws the rope over the branch, ties the noose, gets up on the horse and puts the noose around their neck . . . . it takes a true act of will to NOT slap that horsie a good one across its butt cheeks. Ya feel me?

 

[Charmonium]

I have to wonder if the "No Labels" . . . movement? If that ever really had a chance.

If you think about it for a moment (which I tend to not do ) and ask, well what do you stand for? There's nothing you can really come back with that's going to stick.

Good govt? Define "good." Equality? Well, we've been working on that for a while now and we'll eventually get it right. IDK

 

[Charmonium]

If No Labels is smart, they'll run a conservative ticket with real Republicans. If they manage to get a conservative D like Manchin, that's the end of their political career.

It seems Nader is considering a run but after he cost Gore the election in '00, he's already political toast since his base has got to be virtually all liberals.

Of course even with Rs on the ticket, they'll still lose, but that's not the point. The point is that they will get a big enough chunk of the electorate to be taken seriously.

I can see their getting minimum, 30%.

 

[Pens1566]

Not a chance in hell a 3rd party gets 30% nationally. None.

 

[Charmonium]

Not a chance in hell a 3rd party gets 30% nationally. None.

I hear you and you may well be right. Here's my math. Donald Duck gets the R nomination. There are only about 30% that will vote for him. Of that number, I estimate that his core base is shrinking by the day so you can peel off at least 10%. About a third of voters are Is. My impression is that most of them lean conservative. If so, between 10 and 20% should find a true R ticket very attractive.

So have we got? Worst case, you get 20-25% for DD, another 20-25% for NL and the rest votes D.

That only gives the Ds 50% of the vote, but with 3 tickets, they technically don't need that. That's why my personal estimate for NL goes up to 30%, DD 25%, Ds 40-45%

Now, I admit that I'm pulling these number out my ass. And one thing the American electorate is supremely good at is the head fake. We know the polls are bullshit and Ds have the edge and in my scenario, they'd be certain to win. But of course there are a variety of things that could push those numbers one way or another.

edit: the important thing is that NL gets at least 10-20% of the vote. Less than that and they're just another "also ran." But that or higher and they'll be taken seriously, even with arch conservative donors propping them up.

 

[Indus]

I hear you and you may well be right. Here's my math. Donald Duck gets the R nomination. There are only about 30% that will vote for him. Of that number, I estimate that his core base is shrinking by the day so you can peel off at least 10%. About a third of voters are Is. My impression is that most of them lean conservative. If so, between 10 and 20% should find a true R ticket very attractive.

So have we got? Worst case, you get 20-25% for DD, another 20-25% for NL and the rest votes D.

That only gives the Ds 50% of the vote, but with 3 tickets, they technically don't need that. That's why my personal estimate for NL goes up to 30%, DD 25%, Ds 40-45%

Now, I admit that I'm pulling these number out my ass. And one thing the American electorate is supremely good at is the head fake. We know the polls are bullshit and Ds have the edge and in my scenario, they'd be certain to win. But of course there are a variety of things that could push those numbers one way or another.

edit: the important thing is that NL gets at least 10-20% of the vote. Less than that and they're just another "also ran." But that or higher and they'll be taken seriously, even with arch conservative donors propping them up.

You're dreaming.

If there's 1 thing that is a given.. it's that the GOP least common denominator is prejudice and hate of dems. They'll get behind Trump and pull the lever anyways.

Is there any other way you can explain 74 million people voting for him last time around?

 

[Charmonium]

You're dreaming.

If there's 1 thing that is a given.. it's that the GOP least common denominator is prejudice and hate of dems. They'll get behind Trump and pull the lever anyways.

Is there any other way you can explain 74 million people voting for him last time around?

I'm not saying you don't have a point but that 74M was long before DD was chopped off at the knees in NY, not to mention 4 sets of indictments and 91 felony counts. There's no way that doesn't have of some sort of impact.

Those of us on Earth One are slowly piercing the MAGA reality distortion field. You might not want to admit it and I'm sure most Trump voters SAY they'll vote for him, but I'm also sure that none of them want a Putin-style dictator.

DD may say that's what he's going to and we can flick it off as Donald being Donald. But that's not a completely unrealistic scenario.