JPR Q4 graphics marketshare

[ShintaiDK]

Not much to say, the trend continues for discrete cards. And expect it to continue in Q1 after the outlook from both companies.

Quarter highlights:

AMD’s shipments of desktop heterogeneous GPU/CPUs, i.e., APUs decreased -30.0% from the previous quarter, but were up 4.6% in notebooks. AMD’s discrete desktop shipments decreased -15.97% and notebook discrete shipments decreased -16.6%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipments decreased -7.0%.
Intel’s desktop processor embedded graphics (EPGs) shipments decreased from last quarter by -4.4%, and notebooks decreased by -4.1%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipments decreased -4.0%.
Nvidia’s desktop discrete shipments were up 5.51% from last quarter; and the company’s notebook discrete shipments increased 0.1%. The company’s overall PC graphics shipment increased 2.9%.

http://jonpeddie.com/publications/market_watch
http://jonpeddie.com/news/comments/gpu-shipments-marketwatch-q4-2014-charts-and-images/

 

[Erenhardt]

This is some kind of BS.
Decreasing by a negative number is actual increase.
Someone should learn a basic math. It's hard to take someone like that seriously.

 

[n0x1ous]

This is some kind of BS.
Decreasing by a negative number is actual increase.
Someone should learn a basic math. It's hard to take someone like that seriously.

You don't take the most reliable trusted source of GPU market share info in the world seriously?
Cause that's what Jon Peddie is.....

 

[frozentundra123456]

Looks like AMD is gaining a bit of share in notebooks, probably cheap beema/mullins models.

I dont really understand how both amd and intel lost market share though. That would indicate that more chips without an igp are being sold. Could this mean more FX are being sold, or is it servers from intel?

 

[Tuna-Fish]

I dont really understand how both amd and intel lost market share though. That would indicate that more chips without an igp are being sold. Could this mean more FX are being sold, or is it servers from intel?

Haswell-E was released so that most sales happened in 4th quarter. I wouldn't expect it to have that much impact, though...

 

[Head1985]

This is Really Really Really bad for AMD.They need new generation ASAP.
I also Hope 380/380x will not be only rebrand/renamed 290/290x and it will be new SKU.
I am afraid AMD will be bellow 20% when Fiji launch.
And if its rebrand and they introduce only Fiji i dont know....:'(

 

[ocre]

It's pretty simple, compared to the previous quarter, intel sold/shipped less igps, AMD sold/shipped less chips with/for graphics. And finally, Nvidia sold/shipped more graphics chips in q4 than they did in q3.

That's about all there is to it.

Nvidia picked up the sells AMD lost.

Even more shocking is that nvidia secured over 75% of the market. This is a massive hand over. We see the same thing happening as we saw with their CPUs several years back. AMD dropped down to about 20% and intel 80%, they were never able to climb back up.

The situation is looking to repeat itself. Nvidia 76% and AMD down to 24%. That is really really concerning.

I have no idea where AMD CPU market share is today but once they dropped to about 20%, they never could recover. It's just not looking good for them.

People refused the notion that maxwell was nvidia's Conroe but lately I have started to think it actually isn't that far off. Look at the market share dipping but most of all, I was reading some very early reviews of the 65nm Athlon x2s. Just google them and their premiere. Conroe power advantage wasnt that much back then, its not far off as many people remember it to be. It's not exactly, but to me Maxwell is sort of looking more and more like nvidia's Conroe.
if AMD doesn't get it together then we all know how this ends. It's already playing out as they head closer and closer to the 20/80 mark. 24/76 is not far off at all

 

[Qwertilot]

Its shipments not installed machines so the lost market share for IGP is presumably down to an increase in 'pure' GPU upgrades
(I'd think likely expected from how the 970/80 have seemingly been selling?).

 

[tviceman]

This table and graph includes both iGPU and dGPU, right? Right??? I'm looking at the table and it's saying Nvidia sold more discrete graphics than AMD sold discrete graphics AND APU's.

If this is correct.... just..... wow.

 

[RussianSensation]

This table and graph includes both iGPU and dGPU, right? Right??? I'm looking at the table and it's saying Nvidia sold more discrete graphics than AMD sold discrete graphics AND APU's.

If this is correct.... just..... wow.

Why would that be surprising? Discrete mobile GPUs are > 50% of the entire graphics market. How many discrete GPU laptops did AMD have for sale since 2012? Try and look some up on Newegg right now. AMD's discrete GPU market share in laptops today is probably 5-10%. HD8000 series was largely MIA in laptops too and R9 200 was worse. AMD basically took a 90% write-off in laptop market share from HD7000 series by simply not showing up. What happens if you have nothing to sell for 3 years in a row in laptops? All those PC gamers on older 2008-2010 laptops are going to finally upgrade and what GPU would their laptop have? Intel or NV. It's just mathematics. You don't show up, you get 0% market share.

 

[tviceman]

Why would that be surprising? Discrete mobile GPUs are > 50% of the entire graphics market. How many discrete GPU laptops did AMD have for sale since 2012? Try and look some up on Newegg right now. AMD's discrete GPU market share in laptops today is probably 5-10%. HD8000 series was largely MIA in laptops too and R9 200 was worse. AMD basically took a 90% write-off in laptop market share from HD7000 series by simply not showing up. What happens if you have nothing to sell for 3 years in a row in laptops? All those PC gamers on older 2008-2010 laptops are going to finally upgrade and what GPU would their laptop have? Intel or NV. It's just mathematics. You don't show up, you get 0% market share.

Either you are responding incorrectly (reading my post and/or the OP incorrectly), or I am. This information contains market share lumping iGPU and dGPU together. Hence Intels' 70% market share.

AMD sells iGPU's (APU) in notebooks and destkops. AMD sells dGPU's in notebooks and desktops. Nvidia does not have any iGPU's, they only sell on dGPU's in notebook and desktop. A CPU/APU is REQUIRED for every computer. A dGPU is not required. AMD sells chips that are required to make a computer turn on and run. Yet, despite this, Nvidia's dGPU sales has surpassed AMD's combined APU and dGPU sales.

If you're reading this right, I don't understand how it doesn't blow your mind. AMD's primary business, it's CPU division minus their FX series, combined with GPU sales, is less than Nvidia's GPU sales.

 

[ShintaiDK]

This table and graph includes both iGPU and dGPU, right? Right??? I'm looking at the table and it's saying Nvidia sold more discrete graphics than AMD sold discrete graphics AND APU's.

If this is correct.... just..... wow.

There is a reason why nVidias revenue is higher than AMDs. And looking on CPU and GPU division alone and nVidia is ~2x higher. Roughly half the revenue for AMD comes from consoles.

With a 15% revenue cut in Q1 for AMD, mainly in the CPU and GPU division. 8x%/1x% for Q1 sounds pausible.

 

[Arachnotronic]

I'd have thought AMD might have higher share given the aggressive pricing it has put in place. Guess not.

 

[metalliax]

I'd have thought AMD might have higher share given the aggressive pricing it has put in place. Guess not.

IIRC, these numbers represent what AMD and NVIDIA sell to the channel partners. The AIB vendors have way too much AMD inventory, especially Internationally where AMD generally does better than they do in the US. I think we'll see numbers hold the same for Q1 2015 because of the most recent drop in prices to clear out inventory.

We should see AMD return back to 30-40% for the Q3 report though most likely, as long as the rumors about their upcoming products hold true.

 

[ocre]

AMD would have to have a 50% market share increase for that to happen.
that's crazy.
it doesn't work like that. Even with maxwell, nvidia didn't gain 50% market share in one quarter.

If AMD climbs back to 40% market share, its gonna take a hard fight and much more time. The situation they are in is terrible. Not an easy way out. It's a hole and you can't just jump out.

 

[RussianSensation]

Either you are responding incorrectly (reading my post and/or the OP incorrectly), or I am. This information contains market share lumping iGPU and dGPU together. Hence Intels' 70% market share.

AMD sells iGPU's (APU) in notebooks and destkops. AMD sells dGPU's in notebooks and desktops. Nvidia does not have any iGPU's, they only sell on dGPU's in notebook and desktop. A CPU/APU is REQUIRED for every computer. A dGPU is not required. AMD sells chips that are required to make a computer turn on and run. Yet, despite this, Nvidia's dGPU sales has surpassed AMD's combined APU and dGPU sales..

Why would I be surprised? Again, AMD's APUs are hardly popular for laptops or desktops, while NV's market share in notebook dGPUs (a market > 50% of the entire discrete GPU industry) is probably close to 90% if not more. Essentially when you made a statement that AMD sells dGPUs in notebooks, that's doesn't mean much when NV has most of that market since 2012. Since AMD's APUs have hardly improved in the last 2 years, it's not surprising that APU sales would not move much in laptops either. Therefore, what you end up with is NV's overall GPU sales exceeding AMD's total APU+GPU sales. I don't find that shocking given the recent 2-3 years performance of AMD's APUs and dGPUs in laptops.

 

[Silverforce11]

A quick look in the notebook market shows a lot more Intel CPU + NV dGPU combo than AMD APU models.

AMD has lost the notebook market a long time ago and show no sign or willingness to compete there. For one, to compete in dGPU in notebooks, they would have to match or beat NV on efficiency and two, their notebook driver history is horrendous. I would hesitate to buy notebooks with AMD dGPU.

But its also obvious they cannot compete with Maxwell by selling old-tech at a discount. Perception is reality in the business world.

 

[waffleironhead]

I wonder how much of that marketshare is made up from cheap dell xps desktops. I see them all the time equipped with an i5 and an nvidia gt720.

 

[desprado]

I dont want Nvidia to be that massive in share and if it continues than u will see GPUs like GTX 980 will be sold around $800 to $900 so we need AMD to have at least 35% to 40% share of dgpu market.

 

[ocre]

Why would I be surprised? Again, AMD's APUs are hardly popular for laptops or desktops, while NV's market share in notebook dGPUs (a market > 50% of the entire discrete GPU industry) is probably close to 90% if not more. Essentially when you made a statement that AMD sells dGPUs in notebooks, that's doesn't mean much when NV has most of that market since 2012. Since AMD's APUs have hardly improved in the last 2 years, it's not surprising that APU sales would not move much in laptops either. Therefore, what you end up with is NV's overall GPU sales exceeding AMD's total APU+GPU sales. I don't find that shocking given the recent 2-3 years performance of AMD's APUs and dGPUs in laptops.

A quick look in the notebook market shows a lot more Intel CPU + NV dGPU combo than AMD APU models.

AMD has lost the notebook market a long time ago and show no sign or willingness to compete there. For one, to compete in dGPU in notebooks, they would have to match or beat NV on efficiency and two, their notebook driver history is horrendous. I would hesitate to buy notebooks with AMD dGPU.

But its also obvious they cannot compete with Maxwell by selling old-tech at a discount. Perception is reality in the business world.

What are you guys debating here. The fact that nvidia sells more dgpus than AMD does igps, apus, and dgpus combined happens to be a very recent change. It hasn't been that way for long. You guys can pretend like its nothing out of the ordinary but tviceman has ever right to be shocked. It's very concerning.

Downplay it all you want but at least lets keep things grounded in reality.
All this talk about notebooks being the cause is funny when Peddie clearly states notebook APUs are the only place AMD has seen growth this quarter. Strange enough.

Then there is this massive, whopping 30% decrease in desktop APUs. It's the largest hit they have taken and it most likely had a lot more to do with what tviceman is saying than the 16.9% drop in notebook dGPUs.

its really strange to play it off as just a notebook thing or to try to force the conversation that way. With a massive 30% drop off in desktop APUs, on top of the 16% drop off in desktop dGPUs, its pretty clear that this isn't a notebook issue. AMD took a massive beating in desktop and I just don't know how anyone can not see that glaring back at them. Considering the insistence that AMD hasn't been competitive in mobile for a long time now, I think we might even be able to assume that AMDs 16% drop off in desktop dgpus was a higher loss in units shipped than their 16.6% loss in mobile. Even if you can't see that as likely, its more than clear that AMDs issues this quarter are much larger on the desktop side than the notebook side.

AMD is really really slipping everywhere, except mobile APUs. So, for mobile its not all bad like it is on the desktop. It's not the least bit pretty, but its not a complete failure.

If a 30% drop off isn't shocking, i don't know what is.
Actually, I can assure you guys that no company can survive long if those kind of losses are the norm. That's a massive blow no matter who you are. You can't take them over and over and over.

 

[Silverforce11]

What are you guys debating here. The fact that nvidia sells more dgpus than AMD does igps, apus, and dgpus combined happens to be a very recent change. It hasn't been that way for long. You guys can pretend like its nothing out of the ordinary but tviceman has ever right to be shocked. It's very concerning.

Downplay it all you want but at least lets keep things grounded in reality.
All this talk about notebooks being the cause is funny when Peddie clearly states notebook APUs are the only place AMD has seen growth this quarter. Strange enough.

I wasn't downplaying it. I've been stating that AMD is in a dire situation for many months now.

It will only get worse as they fail to release next-gen products soon.

 

[tviceman]

Why would I be surprised?

Because a chip that is REQUIRED to make a computer work is being outsold by chips that are optional to a computer's functionality. Because it's the first time it's ever happened in the history of AMD and Nvidia?

 

[tviceman]

I wasn't downplaying it. I've been stating that AMD is in a dire situation for many months now.

It will only get worse as they fail to release next-gen products soon.

People talk about lack of next-gen parts. But I don't know. I don't follow anything AMD does on the CPU side, so I wouldn't know what their release schedule looks like there. However, since GCN 1.0 came out, AMD has released Bonaire, Hawaii, and Tonga. Since Kepler came out, Nvidia has released GM107, GM204, and GM206. GM200 is coming and Fiji is coming. Their release cadence is staying tit for tat insofar as new chips are concerned. It just happens that Nvidia's new releases are making a bigger splash because they're either faster (GM204) or way more power efficient and offer similar performance vs. the similar priced AMD offering (GM206 and Tonga).

I have no idea how AMD gets out of this slow spiral of death, short of releasing an absolutely amazing new GPU and absolutely crushing it on their next CPU architecture (if they even make it that long).

 

[blastingcap]

Year to year, and quarter to quarter, AMD lost a lot of market share. On the bright side, I hear that AMD finally clawed back some pro graphics market share. But even so, that market share loss has got to hurt.

http://www.pcper.com/news/Graphics-Cards/GPU-Market-sees-20-point-swing-2014-NVIDIA-gains-AMD-falls

 

[Silverforce11]

People talk about lack of next-gen parts. But I don't know. I don't follow anything AMD does on the CPU side, so I wouldn't know what their release schedule looks like there. However, since GCN 1.0 came out, AMD has released Bonaire, Hawaii, and Tonga. Since Kepler came out, Nvidia has released GM107, GM204, and GM206. GM200 is coming and Fiji is coming. Their release cadence is staying tit for tat insofar as new chips are concerned. It just happens that Nvidia's new releases are making a bigger splash because they're either faster (GM204) or way more power efficient and offer similar performance vs. the similar priced AMD offering (GM206 and Tonga).

I have no idea how AMD gets out of this slow spiral of death, short of releasing an absolutely amazing new GPU and absolutely crushing it on their next CPU architecture (if they even make it that long).

GCN iterations have been just that, minor revisions. Kepler to Maxwell is a major generation leap.

The next GCN leap would be 2.0, where they take what they've learnt with Tonga and improve upon it massively with HBM (and the entire architecture designed around low latency + high bandwidth vram access).

Tahiti is still being sold as a major product lineup in the mid-range (280/X), with Hawaii being the top end. It is undoubtedly out-dated these days.

R390X and its cut-down SKUs is gonna make or break AMD. I have zero doubts about this, because their CPU/APU division is dead. Currently they are sustained by console royalties and for many years before that, by their GPUs. Without a strong GPU presence, they are gone, chump change for anyone that wants x86 and GPU IPs.