jonpeddie: nvidia keeps losing market share

[Dribble]

Next gen of Tegra is due out in August. Quadcore with an improved GPU.

I am interested in seeing if Nvidia will be able to brute force their way into the market with an aggressive product cycle like they did in desktop graphics nearly 15 years ago.

I suspect that is the plan. Nvidia have the odd ace up their sleeves, in particular graphics. At some not to distant point tablet graphics are going to want programmable shaders - basically when tablets get as powerful as the current consoles they are going to want the same DX9c level of graphics too. That is not easy to design (ask Intel), and unlike the cpu which you can just buy off ARM there is no one to sell you a DX9c graphics gpu design to use in your soc. At this point nvidia has a big advantage as they can knock off DX9c chips in their sleep.

I suspect ARM has worked this out and is probably one of the main reasons why they are talking to AMD.

 

[bryanW1995]

I'd be very surprised to see Nvidia in 7 years still operating as an independent company. I'd almost wager Nvidia will be consumed by a much larger company within the next 7 years....or less.

While I agree that this "should" happen, it will take a lot of gloom/doom for JHH to surrender control of the company. I think that the two most likely scenarios are either a vastly larger nvidia that has gobbled up lots of other companies or a bankruptcy b/c JHH refused to sell when the time was right.

 

[cusideabelincoln]

So you have no proof of its failure ? Maybe you should stop blindly hating a company and read some tech news/articles.

Sony is going forward with two new tablest/ Using the failed Tegra 2, and Oh, they are both going to be using the Playstation name.

http://www.gottabemobile.com/2011/05...-gaming-crowd/

http://www.fonehome.co.uk/2011/05/04...sors-detailed/

He wasn't saying it was an utter failure - you're kind of putting words into his mouth which don't line up with the arguments he brought to back up his opinion. In a neutral manner, he was basically saying the hardware was lackluster in comparison to the competition.

Even your very own link says the same thing.

Comparisons

So where does the Tegra 2 stand alongside its rivals? Obviously it’s present in a number of Android smartphones and tablets, so the S1 and S2 will be roughly equal to the likes of the Motorola Xoom and Samsung Galaxy Tab 10.1. Its dual-core processor is pretty similar to that in the iPad 2, so general tasks should be equally snappy.

However, when it comes to handling intensive graphics, it seems the S1 and S2 could find themselves lagging behind the iPad 2 a little. In early benchmarks (like these Anandtech ones), the Tegra 2′s ULP GeForce is bested comfortably by the Apple tablet’s PowerVR SGX543 MP2.

It appears Apple has invested heavily in this graphical advantage – According to RBS analyst Didier Scemama, iPad 2′s GPU is considerably more expensive to produce than the Tegra 2′s, and its superiority is reflected in the fact that it takes up considerably more space (the Apple A5 is two and a half times bigger than the Tegra 2). For once, Apple is gunning for technical superiority, which should come into your purchasing decision if you intend to use your new tablet for games.

Ultimately though, the Sony S1 and S2 will be in capable hands with the Tegra 2 SoC. It will offer a potent performance while remaining relatively easy on battery life. It’s true that it’s a pretty common chip on the Android 3.0 tablet market, but we’d venture that says something about its quality.

PingviN said the hardware was not as fast as the competition. That seems to be true. He personally thinks that situation is sad. Is that really blindly hating a company? I don't think so.

 

[GaiaHunter]

Why would you think an integrated solution is somehow going to be the saving grace for the PC from the doom-and-gloom PC gaming mind-set?

Because the integrated solutions now are worse than consoles.

If the integrated solutions become as fast as consoles then the PC gaming market will increase exponentially.

 

[SirPauly]

How does that improve the PC gaming experience; to perform the same as consoles?

 

[wahdangun]

Why would you think an integrated solution is somehow going to be the saving grace for the PC from the doom-and-gloom PC gaming mind-set?

because it will make larger user base, why do you think valve and minecraft games sell so well? Its because even intel suck graphic can play it

 

[tijag]

because it will make larger user base, why do you think valve and minecraft games sell so well? Its because even intel suck graphic can play it

I would have thought that source engine games made by valve and minecraft all being good games would have something to do with them selling well.

 

[bryanW1995]

^ that's pretty cool, had not seen a turnkey breakout system like that before.

Last time I saw it (6 mos ago) pro was about 1/3 and pc graphics about 1/5 of total stock price, so it doesn't look like it's changed much recently. Hmmm, might have been more like a year ago, I think it was during discussions about fermi's delay and NV's supposed impending doom last year.

 

[sandorski]

I would have thought that source engine games made by valve and minecraft all being good games would have something to do with them selling well.

This. Both Games(Valve isn't a Game, but whatever)are very unique and have great Playability. These discussions seem to usually involve Graphic Whorism. PC Gaming isn't just better Graphics, it is better implementation of certain Gametypes and the much more open modability of games.

 

[GaiaHunter]

How does that improve the PC gaming experience; to perform the same as consoles?

The point is to increase the user base.

Once that base is there playing games on PC (and games like RTS, 4X, even RPGs and FPS are better in the PC) companies can afford to justify to improve other aspects like better AI, physics, graphics, multiplayer aspect (like allowing more people in the same server) and once people are more comfortable playing games on the PC, buying better GPUs will become a less alien event, especially if they have the allure to get better IQ (like we, the already PC gamer, do).

 

[SirPauly]

What I see with the APU is a way of garnering additional revenues and to move forward the traction that is mobile and small factor, efficient platforms. Really, not that much different than nVidia's vision with Tegra.

The more platforms that can take advantage of the GPU prowess that AMD and nVidia may create may be a boon for developers for new platforms but how does it improve the PC experience to differentiate itself from consoles?

 

[GaiaHunter]

What I see with the APU is a way of garnering additional revenues and to move forward the traction that is mobile and small factor, efficient platforms. Really, not that much different than nVidia's vision with Tegra.

The more platforms that can take advantage of the GPU prowess that AMD and nVidia may create may be a boon for developers for new platforms but how does it improve the PC experience to differentiate itself from consoles?

First things first.

What use is to have more powerful GPUs if you need $25 millions to develop a game for a max base of 1 million users?

You would have to sell 500k copies at $50 a pop. Doesn't seem much until you notice you need to sell that game to 50% of the market. That is insane.

Despite the fact mid to high-end gaming PC are much more powerful than consoles, the average console is much faster for gaming that the average PC.

Most IGPs are still at 6600GT-7600GT performance levels at best!

Most games created for consoles can't even be played in most PCs.

That is why most games are developed for consoles.

Now make the average PC as fast as a console - there are many more pcs than consoles. The games will be developed for PCs and it will allow the technology costs of developing higher quality graphics to be absorbed by the higher number copies (that will play in lower quality settings) sold.

 

[SirPauly]

Where are you getting only 1 million users?

Multi-platform is a way of generating the most revenue, including the PC. Do you believe that the APU is going to find a way of creating just PC exclusive titles?

 

[PingviN]

First things first.

What use is to have more powerful GPUs if you need $25 millions to develop a game for a max base of 1 million users?

Crytek sold millions of Crysis because it was a product appealing to PC gamers. Hell, the game couldn't even be run at max when it was released! It's no wonder PC games sell less than console games when most of them are just pure-bred ports taking no advantage of the PC's superior input (and graphics, for high-end users). Sure console is easier, probably more profitable than PC-exclusive titles, but if you got a solid game (anything by Valve, Crysis (the original, not the console-crap Crytek puked out), World of Warcraft, Minecraft and the likes, money can be earned in huge amount without touching the consoles.

Problem is, today, developers want to direct movies, not develop games. Instead of playing a game "you press a button - something awesome happens!" and that doesn't cut it for those of us who like playing games.

Maybe consolers just have lower standards, making it easier to reap profit than it is on the PC.

 

[SirPauly]

What I feel may be the problem is if some individuals don't see PC exclusives and wonderment translates into the death of the PC gaming and all the doom-and-gloom. When Pc gaming is growing and evolving to me.

 

[Beer4Me]

Tegra II is the standard choice for Android 3.0 Honeycomb based Tablets . Which is gobbling up low end PC share.

Sony: Android and Nvidia go together


Sony's adoption of Nvidia silicon for its upcoming Android tablets makes the graphics chip supplier--at least for the time being--the hardware standard for the Android tablet world, as a Sony vice president articulated in an interview in Japan on Wednesday.

This is not going 'nowhere', lol

https://www.trefis.com/company?hm=NVDA.trefis#/NVDA/n-0002?from=sankey

After the PSN network breach and CC/identity theft, I don't think many ppl are going to trust Sony products. Granted, what you say is good news for NV, but Sony has a lot more work ahead to improve customer relations.

 

[SirPauly]

Now make the average PC as fast as a console - there are many more pcs than consoles. The games will be developed for PCs and it will allow the technology costs of developing higher quality graphics to be absorbed by the higher number copies (that will play in lower quality settings) sold.

Imho,

I hear what you're saying but you're asking me to believe there is going to be a leap in performance when compared to existing and future mid-range, mainstream offerings. Integration has always been here, why would it be any different? Because it is in a CPU -- now, you're engineering the CPU and GPU for power savings to allow for more efficient small factors -- not necessarily to bring such a performance jump when compared to main-stream; to transform the landscape and save PC gaming wearing a hero cape and 3d mark bench number.

Since PC gaming is growing, having more flexible platforms, mobile, smaller form factors, will help PC gaming and developer growth much more than the performance metrics that integration may allow for.

 

[argor]

I suspect that is the plan. Nvidia have the odd ace up their sleeves, in particular graphics

no read this http://www.beyond3d.com/content/articles/112/1
"""Kal-El is a very impressive chip relative to the competition for 2011 tablets and smartphones, but NVIDIA also showed a roadmap that goes all the way up to 2014. Their goal was clearly to impress the press, but it had quite the opposite effect on me: if Kal-El in 2011 is a 5x boost over Tegra 2 but Wayne in 2012 is only a 2x boost despite being on 28nm, that means it's likely an even smaller architecture change. That also means the new GPU architecture, which was rumoured for this generation of hardware, possibly won't come until Logan in 2013, and neither will the Cortex-A15 (which will lead to interesting comparisons between 4xA9 vs 2xA15). The good news is that would allow Wayne to be cheap enough to target much more than just the ultra-high-end market. On the other hand, the competition certainly isn't standing still with their first 28nm chips..."""
nivida tegra 3+ will simple be left behind compared to powervr Series 6 look at ST-Ericsson A9600 that has powervr Series 6 gpu core NVIDIA really needs to step-up inn graphics

. At some not to distant point tablet graphics are going to want programmable shaders - basically when tablets get as powerful as the current consoles they are going to want the same DX9c level of graphics too. That is not easy to design (ask Intel), and unlike the cpu which you can just buy off ARM there is no one to sell you a DX9c graphics gpu design to use in your soc. At this point nvidia has a big advantage as they can knock off DX9c chips in their sleep.

o buger i see you don’t anything about embed graphics programmable shaders are already here any gpu core that supports opengl ES 2 supports programmable shaders
powervr already has gpu cores that support dx10.1
but you have to remember for gpu having more feature more power is consumed it is one of the reason that sony pick dx9 level gpu core for the psp2 instead of dx10.1 level gpu core

I suspect ARM has worked this out and is probably one of the main reasons why they are talking to AMD

you have too remember it´s a lot harder to design gpu core that is low power in this arm may have some more experience

 

[Rayb]

Last time I saw it (6 mos ago) pro was about 1/3 and pc graphics about 1/5 of total stock price, so it doesn't look like it's changed much recently. Hmmm, might have been more like a year ago, I think it was during discussions about fermi's delay and NV's supposed impending doom last year.

Just rehashing something over and over it's not going to change anything in the way the company is mapping their strategy regarding product development. Besides, the price of the stock (6 mos ago =~$8 < now = ~$18 - $20 ) fluctuation without Tegra 2 products in sight. Still, Tegra 3 is due to show up in August, sometime.

http://phandroid.com/2011/05/04/asu...-tegra-3-and-intel-atom-tablets-in-the-works/

It doesn't take much to realize that Nvidia is focusing their efforts in the mobile space with Tegra 2/3. The PC segment doesn't have the same room for growth and it will be shrinking, hence the shift to mobile computing with ARM SoC's.

Sales of Netbooks Collapse Dramatically

People may find that once a smartphone/tablet is capable of performing most of the daily tasks you need a PC to do with equal ease. The need for a PC in the current form will diminish, only the software is holding the hardware back at this time.

 

[SirPauly]

Unless AMD has plans for this:

http://www.bit-tech.net/hardware/graphics/2011/03/16/farewell-to-directx/1

I've been pushing for this for years in discussions with all the IHVs; to get lower and lower level control over the GPU resources, to get rid of the serial & intrinsic driver bottleneck, enable the GPU to setup work for itself as well as tear down both the logic CPU/GPU latency barrier in WDDM and the physical PCI-E latency barrier to enable true heterogeneous low-latency computing.

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1535975&postcount=8

 

[pcm81]

Unless AMD has plans for this:

http://www.bit-tech.net/hardware/graphics/2011/03/16/farewell-to-directx/1

Please note that the author of the above referenced article claims that gtx580 has 512 stream processors.... this kind of makes me question anything else which is states in the article...

 

[busydude]

Please note that the author of the above referenced article claims that gtx580 has 512 stream processors.... this kind of makes me question anything else which is states in the article...

I don't see anything wrong in that.

 

[pcm81]

I don't see anything wrong in that.

Stream processor is a specific core design used by AMD in their Radeon cards. Nvidia uses Cuda Cores. Stream processors are on a SIMM while Cuda Cores are on a MIMM architecture. Shall i go on?

EDIT:
The equivalent of his statement would be to say that I have 2 pentium processors in my apple notebook.

 

[Dark Shroud]

Unless AMD has plans for this:

http://www.bit-tech.net/hardware/graphics/2011/03/16/farewell-to-directx/1

http://forum.beyond3d.com/showpost.php?p=1535975&postcount=8

That article is beyound stupid.

Nvidia has backed themselves into a corner. I don't hate Nvidia and I do not want them to go under. Yet between their corporate attitude and the way they treat consumers they could use a bit of humbling. Not to mention the hardware divides they have created in the PC gaming world.

 

[notty22]

Speaking of humbled ...
AMD Still Doesn't Have a CEO