Question JayzTwoCents - "Buy your NV 3000-series cards TODAYZ!!!!" video of a few days ago. (final reply from Jay)

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maddie

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Jul 18, 2010
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Stuka87

Stuka87

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If they do get them in August, that could still end up being a January release. Typically there is a 1-2 month window in order to manufacture enough cards for launch. But with production still being slow, and parts delays, that stretching out to 3 months would not be surprising. And its very rare to launch in December.
 
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Aapje

Aapje

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Mar 21, 2022
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Stuka87 said:
If they do get them in August, that could still end up being a January release. Typically there is a 1-2 month window in order to manufacture enough cards for launch. But with production still being slow, and parts delays, that stretching out to 3 months would not be surprising. And its very rare to launch in December.
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You have to keep in mind that sea shipping takes at least half a month and often closer to a full month. They can't start delivering them to customers when the cards are in a warehouse in China, they actually need to get to the US & EU first.
 
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Fallen Kell

Fallen Kell

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Oct 9, 1999
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Stuka87 said:
If they do get them in August, that could still end up being a January release. Typically there is a 1-2 month window in order to manufacture enough cards for launch. But with production still being slow, and parts delays, that stretching out to 3 months would not be surprising. And its very rare to launch in December.
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Just don't forget that Nvidia has already paid quite a bit of money for the new GPUs (with a $10Billion investment already to secure TSMC 5nm line allocation). I don't think they can walk that back (but you never know, there might be some clause in the agreement that allows for some flexability, however I don't know why TSMC would agree to any such thing given that at the time the deal was made we were still in the middle of the crypto craze and silicon shortage).

What I am getting at is that Nvidia has already planned how many chips they were going to have at launch, and they did this months ago because they had to compete against Apple, and AMD for time on TSMC's manufacturing line.
 
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Aapje

Aapje

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Fallen Kell said:
What I am getting at is that Nvidia has already planned how many chips they were going to have at launch, and they did this months ago because they had to compete against Apple, and AMD for time on TSMC's manufacturing line.
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TSMC was willing to delay it a bit, but it wouldn't be a problem anyway to launch with more stock. At the start, demand always outstrips supply.

But the question is whether they want to delay, especially with all the risks of lowered demand. If I were them, I would want to start selling ASAP while many people are still conditioned to the higher prices, rather than do an Intel, delaying until market conditions are way worse. Especially since they need to move volume due to to their TSMC contract, as you note.
 
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Aapje

Aapje

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If we get a huge influx of mining cards plus a recession, where many people stop spending (big) money on things like this, we might actually see something similar.
 
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BoomerD

BoomerD

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Feb 26, 2006
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Yet, the 3070 FTW3 I bought 3 weeks ago from EVGA for $519 (less a discount for using an associate code, so $505) went back to $599 a couple of days later...and is still at that price today.
 
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fleshconsumed

fleshconsumed

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Feb 21, 2002
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BoomerD said:
Yet, the 3070 FTW3 I bought 3 weeks ago from EVGA for $519 (less a discount for using an associate code, so $505) went back to $599 a couple of days later...and is still at that price today.
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As I posted in another thread, ETH is finally going PoS. It's over. Barring another global catastrophe I expect video card prices to enter free fall in 2 months.

blog.ethereum.org

Mainnet Merge Announcement | Ethereum Foundation Blog

blog.ethereum.org blog.ethereum.org
 
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moonbogg

moonbogg

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GodisanAtheist

GodisanAtheist

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Nov 16, 2006
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I think high retail prices for the 4xxx generation combined with stubbornly high retail prices for new 3xxx series cards is going to act as a buoy for the used market.

Same thing sort of happened from the transition from 2xxx to 3xxx. The cards just didn't drop as low as some of us expected thanks to a very sticky new retail price. Believe me I was in the market for them back then.

If people still feel like they're "getting a deal" for a $600 3080 thanks to weird retail price distribution etc then that's what they'll go for and it'll suck.
 
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fleshconsumed

fleshconsumed

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Feb 21, 2002
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GodisanAtheist said:
I think high retail prices for the 4xxx generation combined with stubbornly high retail prices for new 3xxx series cards is going to act as a buoy for the used market.

Same thing sort of happened from the transition from 2xxx to 3xxx. The cards just didn't drop as low as some of us expected thanks to a very sticky new retail price. Believe me I was in the market for them back then.

If people still feel like they're "getting a deal" for a $600 3080 thanks to weird retail price distribution etc then that's what they'll go for and it'll suck.
Click to expand...
Eh, transition from 2xxx to 3xxx was screwed up by mining boom. Miners were buying every single card on the market. nVidia quarterly revenues are down what, 30%? That's because there is no demand for the cards from the miners. nVidia will undoubtedly try soft landing their ship by delaying 4xxx release as much as possible to get rid of 3xxx and by limiting supply, but that's a dangerous game to play, they need to sell to make money, there is only so much they can do to keep prices high. I know it's hard to believe as we've been in this mess for 2 years already, but without miners things will get back to normal.
 
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