It's all over.. starting this Saturday

[zsdersw]

There are at least three great delusions of our time:

1. Religions.. all of them
2. Man-made global climate change
3. Doomsday predictions.. all of them

All of them have some things in common:

- They all prey on fear by warning of dire personal consequences
- They all are absent concrete proof
- They all have large amounts of money, media coverage, and political power

Any one of those things should be cause for skepticism, but when all three are present, as is the case, it should be a red flag that all of these people are idiots and should be ignored.

 

[Lemon law]

Maybe there is an alternate view we do not consider. That maybe in fact May 2011 was the day to be raptured. God was on earth ready and willing, but after 24 Hours of constant examination, found not a single human being worthy of the honor. But wait, maybe God found a very very few, but we won't find out until we look at missing persons cases filed later, with last seen date listed as May 20.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Maybe there is an alternate view we do not consider. That maybe in fact May 2011 was the day to be raptured. God was on earth ready and willing, but after 24 Hours of constant examination, found not a single human being worthy of the honor. But wait, maybe God found a very very few, but we won't find out until we look at missing persons cases filed later, with last seen date listed as May 20.

All the religious snakes are accounted for

 

[Zebo]

Have there been any reported stories of true believers who quit their jobs, sold their houses, and gave away all their wealth and worldly possessions in anticipation of the Rapture?

Hell no As Mark Twain said "Faith is believing what you know ain't so" and now you're talking about real money.

 

[Zebo]

There are at least three great delusions of our time:

1. Religions.. all of them
2. Man-made global climate change
3. Doomsday predictions.. all of them

All of them have some things in common:

- They all prey on fear by warning of dire personal consequences
- They all are absent concrete proof
- They all have large amounts of money, media coverage, and political power

Any one of those things should be cause for skepticism, but when all three are present, as is the case, it should be a red flag that all of these people are idiots and should be ignored.

LOl I like that. I'd add get rich quick gurus too.

 

[TheDoc9]

People who believe this person, please don't send him more of your money. If he's right it does no good to send him your money in any case. Now he's engaged in a common con artist tactic and doubling down the lie.

He's now telling us the real end is in October - aka : so send your money now because it's your last chance! He's so corrupt he's trying desperately to steal every last dime from his victims.

The worst part about it is he's probably got several 'true believers' that might even cause harm to others when the new date arrives - just so that they can be right in their own minds. It's how the dark ages were justified. This is the true danger that this asshole represents.

 

[shira]

There are at least three great delusions of our time:

1. Religions.. all of them
2. Man-made global climate change
3. Doomsday predictions.. all of them

All of them have some things in common:

- They all prey on fear by warning of dire personal consequences
- They all are absent concrete proof
- They all have large amounts of money, media coverage, and political power

Any one of those things should be cause for skepticism, but when all three are present, as is the case, it should be a red flag that all of these people are idiots and should be ignored.

Sorry, but the great delusion of our time concerning MMCC is that it isn't occurring. You have to be a totally committed denialist to conclude that MMCC isn't real. Just a week ago, in response to a Republican request, the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences released a report on Climate change. The key conclusion?

http://dels.nas.edu/Report/Americas-Climate-Choices/12781

Climate change is occurring, is very likely caused primarily by human activities, and poses significant risks to humans and the environment. These risks indicate a pressing need for substantial action to limit the magnitude of climate change and to prepare for adapting to its impacts.

But according to you, a slam-dunk report by the most prestigious science organization in the country is meaningless. And it's the MMCC believers, not you, who are ideologues.

 

[Thump553]

Maybe there is an alternate view we do not consider. That maybe in fact May 2011 was the day to be raptured. God was on earth ready and willing, but after 24 Hours of constant examination, found not a single human being worthy of the honor. But wait, maybe God found a very very few, but we won't find out until we look at missing persons cases filed later, with last seen date listed as May 20.

Interesting theory. I note that the Pope and all the TV preachers (including Campo) are all still around.

OTOH I am still around too, so on second thought your theory must be wrong.

 

[zsdersw]

Sorry, but the great delusion of our time concerning MMCC is that it isn't occurring. You have to be a totally committed denialist to conclude that MMCC isn't real. Just a week ago, in response to a Republican request, the National Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences released a report on Climate change. The key conclusion?

http://dels.nas.edu/Report/Americas-Climate-Choices/12781

But according to you, a slam-dunk report by the most prestigious science organization in the country is meaningless. And it's the MMCC believers, not you, who are ideologues.

Don't be such a crybaby. I'm a skeptic, not an ideologue. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof... and nothing that's been offered rules out natural climate cycles or the sun's influence enough to concretely say that humans are the cause.

 

[shira]

Don't be such a crybaby. I'm a skeptic, not an ideologue. Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof... and nothing that's been offered rules out natural climate cycles or the sun's influence enough to concretely say that humans are the cause.

No, believe me, you're an ideologue. You sloppily ascribe the observed climate data to ill-defined "natural" cycles and solar activity, for which there's virtually no documentation.

Come on, show us the studies that produce best-fit data to solar activity that are superior to MMCC models.

And "natural cycles"? Now there's a meaningful, scientifically testable hypothesis. Incredibly predictive, too.

You're an ideologue because you describe as a "delusion" the overwhelming consensus of thousands of serious scientists.

 

[zsdersw]

No, believe me, you're an ideologue. You sloppily ascribe the observed climate data to ill-defined "natural" cycles and solar activity, for which there's virtually no documentation.

Come on, show us the studies that produce best-fit data to solar activity that are superior to MMCC models.

And "natural cycles"? Now there's a meaningful, scientifically testable hypothesis. Incredibly predictive, too.

You're an ideologue because you describe as a "delusion" the overwhelming consensus of thousands of serious scientists.

- Arctic ice cap grew 30% from 2007 to 2008.
- The sun can have a significant impact: http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=12804
- Snow/ice depth in Greenland has been increasing several hundred meters over the last 60-70 years.
- There's been no increase in global temperatures since 1998. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7329799.stm

There's some evidence to suggest we're headed for a global cooling cycle... but I'm not convinced of that either.

Here's a basic fact: our planet is constantly in a state of change. Areas that, to us, have always been dry or wet... hot or cold... are by no means guaranteed to remain that way. This planet's climates have been changing long before we got here, and will continue changing long after we're gone.

 

[Doc Savage Fan]

Come on, show us the studies that produce best-fit data to solar activity that are superior to MMCC models.

See graph on Slide 9 of Kirkby's presentation at
http://howcanpeoplebesostupid.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/cern_lecture.pdf

Eichler's paper is at
(http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2008GL035930.shtml) but you must pay for it.

Here's a decent write up on the current state of GCR research.
http://www.hinduonnet.com/fline/fl2806/stories/20110325280610700.htm

They say that turnabout is fair play...so please show me a climate model that predicts the MWP.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

Hell no As Mark Twain said "Faith is believing what you know ain't so" and now you're talking about real money.

I dunno. Some of these people probably sincerely believed it 100% with all their hearts and faith. Heck, about 250 people purchased the after-rapture pet care service knowing that there wouldn't be any refunds.

 

[p0nd]

- Arctic ice cap grew 30% from 2007 to 2008.
- The sun can have a significant impact: http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=12804

"30%" - see argument about trends below. August 2008 also saw the fastest melt of Arctic sea ice ever recorded.
Nobody denies that the sun affects climate. Neither does anyone assert that climate change is 100% caused by the sun, 100% caused by natural cycles, or 100% caused by man.

- Snow/ice depth in Greenland has been increasing several hundred meters over the last 60-70 years.

Source?
Much of the current scientific lit points toward ocean-terminating glaciers in Greenland losing more mass at faster rates. Snow or ice depth can also increase in one area, while ice loss increases faster in others still resulting in a net loss of ice.
Mass balance estimates have been trending to a net loss for the ice sheet for some decades now:
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/wg1/ar4-wg1-chapter4.pdf

- There's been no increase in global temperatures since 1998. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/7329799.stm

There's some evidence to suggest we're headed for a global cooling cycle... but I'm not convinced of that either.

Here's a basic fact: our planet is constantly in a state of change. Areas that, to us, have always been dry or wet... hot or cold... are by no means guaranteed to remain that way. This planet's climates have been changing long before we got here, and will continue changing long after we're gone.

Trends. Climate change is all about trends. Air temperature may increase for 50 yrs, decrease for 10, and then increase for another 20. 1998 was not only the hottest year of the 20th century, it was also an El Nino year. There wasn't a hotter year until 2005. How can you identify any sort of meaningful trend by picking 2 end points and isolating that data? Especially with data as variable as climate measurements, which come from myriad of sources like air, sea, ice, mud, pollen, tree rings? If you pick from 1998 to 2005, temperature went down. Start further and further back, and the overall increasing trend is shown.

Climate change does not claim man is the 100% driver. The best known drivers of glacial advance and retreat are the Milankovitch cycles, which are variations in Earth's orbit and axial tilt. We know from geological data how the cycles had affected climate during the past several glacial maximums and minimums; these are useful points and baselines to compare our current climate to. It doesn't matter if the earth was much hotter millions of years ago (which it was); we are concerned with the effects of a climate change on ourselves and the ecosystems of today which are vastly different than life on the planet millions of years ago.

Also the science says nothing about climate change being the end of man or civilization or anything like the rapture or 2012 theory. Climate change will be good for some people who get more rain for their crops, bad for others who get less rain, and bad for more who are displaced from low lying coastal areas as sea levels rise; it will be good for some species who gain an increased area of habitat and bad for others who lose out on habitat or have to compete with different species entering the habitat.