It is possible that Democrats will gain, not lose in November. Here's why/how.

[manly]

i would like to point out that Simon Rosenberg and Meidas Touch were spot on with this analysis i posted a few days ago, which was poo-poo'd by many in this thread.

Simon's primary point that R pollsters were flooding the zone with BS polls skewing the averages (like 538) towards Rs.

404 False narrative not found (emphasis added)

Here are five takeaways from a midterm election the public polls, unlike two years ago, largely got right:

The red wave that wasn’t: 5 takeaways from a disappointing night for the GOP

Donald Trump’s favored candidates prove a drag to Republicans, running well behind others in their party.

www.politico.com

The Pollsters Seem To Have Had A Good Night

In this late-night installment of the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate Silver and Galen Druke put their “Model Talk” hats on and discuss the initial resul…

fivethirtyeight.com

 

[ch33zw1z]

He has baseball cards? Hopefully they're worth more than his football cards

DONALD TRUMP NEW JERSEY GENERALS HERSCHEL WALKER CUSTOM USFL RARE ART CARD | eBay

Find many great new & used options and get the best deals for DONALD TRUMP NEW JERSEY GENERALS HERSCHEL WALKER CUSTOM USFL RARE ART CARD at the best online prices at eBay! Free shipping for many products!

www.ebay.com

lol maybe I’m wrong, I’ve got cards!

 

[nicalandia]

Well we’ll find out shortly if killing their voters will impact the midterms.

Well, it seems like between Vaccine Deniers dying of the china virus(Most of them being MAGA) and SCOTUS messing with Women's reproductive rights(mind you 50% of the USA are young women) turned the so called "Red Wave" into a pink piss.

 

[dlerious]

Well, it seems like between Vaccine Deniers dying of the china virus(Most of them being MAGA) and SCOTUS messing with Women's reproductive rights(mind you 50% of the USA are young women) turned the so called "Red Wave" into a pink piss.

I've heard it called a Red Wedding though it's possible they were saying bed wetting.

 

[UNCjigga]

538's system can be (and probably is) gamed by partisan pollsters. I assume that the D situation is better than their model. Doesn't mean that they won't lose both houses, but that IMO their odds are better in the senate.

I'm impressed by what these unknown 20-something pollsters were able to do. Pretty much nailed the results with a few hyper-gerrymandered exceptions.

Split Ticket

Electoral analysis at your fingertips

split-ticket.org

Edit: Their whole schtick is accounting for (and removing) bias from aggregate polls ala 538.

Meet the Twentysomething Election Forecasters Who Keep Nate Silver on His Toes

In a crowded field, the quartet of partners at Split Ticket explain what makes them different.

newrepublic.com

 

[fskimospy]

I'm impressed by what these unknown 20-something pollsters were able to do. Pretty much nailed the results with a few hyper-gerrymandered exceptions.

Split Ticket

Electoral analysis at your fingertips

split-ticket.org

Edit: Their whole schtick is accounting for (and removing) bias from aggregate polls ala 538.

Meet the Twentysomething Election Forecasters Who Keep Nate Silver on His Toes

In a crowded field, the quartet of partners at Split Ticket explain what makes them different.

newrepublic.com

538 basically nailed it though so I fail to see what value is added.

 

[evident]

538 basically nailed it though so I fail to see what value is added.

you think so? 538 seemed to count alot of these BS republican polls. I haven't visited that site since 2020 and just stopped watching the news 2 weeks prior to the election. makes me alot less stressed (although still stressed, lol)
(1) MeidasTouch on Twitter: "Yikes. In a FiveThirtyEight podcast released Nov 2, hosts mocked Simon Rosenberg for suggesting partisan pollsters were cooking the polling averages: "Oh no, not this partisan pollster bullshit. Not this bullshit dude. I've never seen so much hopium smoked." Rosenberg was right. https://t.co/EbRpq2L9cZ" / Twitter

I also get a shit ton of republican fake polls on my landline. Questions are always worded like "do you support the failing socialist communist anti police policies of the democrats? press 1 for yes, press 2 for no!"

 

[sportage]

I too am wondering.... Will Trump Announce ???
What did this mean for Trump?
The failure of the Trump endorsements puts Trump in a pickle because one thing we do know about Donald Trump, to lose is extremely embarrassing for him. And Donald Trump does not like to be embarrassed, oh no he does not.
If he announces a run, now he knows he just could lose and lose in several ways. One, to lose to DeSantis in a primary or even worse to lose against Mike Pence in a primary. Second, Trump could easily lose the 2024 election itself, assuming he wins the republican nomination. And I definitely would not assume THAT.

Naw, I think after what happened on election night 2022, I think Donald Trump will not run. He will however toy with the idea of running to his base and in his rallies, but he won't run. He can't. He knows he just might lose. AGAIN! ouch....

 

[akenbennu]

I too am wondering.... Will Trump Announce ???
What did this mean for Trump?
The failure of the Trump endorsements puts Trump in a pickle because one thing we do know about Donald Trump, to lose is extremely embarrassing for him. And Donald Trump does not like to be embarrassed, oh no he does not.
If he announces a run, now he knows he just could lose and lose in several ways. One, to lose to DeSantis in a primary or even worse to lose against Mike Pence in a primary. Second, Trump could easily lose the 2024 election itself, assuming he wins the republican nomination. And I definitely would not assume THAT.

Naw, I think after what happened on election night 2022, I think Donald Trump will not run. He will however toy with the idea of running to his base and in his rallies, but he won't run. He can't. He knows he just might lose. AGAIN! ouch....

If it's a 3 way race with Trump, Pence and DeSantis, I would think DeSantis wins in a landslide.

 

[JEDI]

GA update:
there will be a runoff.

98% reporting · Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker advance.
The second round will take place on December 6, 2022. · The Associated Press has called this race

 

[JEDI]

Parties		Seats won	Gain/Loss
Republican Party		209	+6
Democratic Party		187	-7

396 of 435 seats up for election called.
need 218 for majority, which the gop is expected to narrowly have.
got my popcorn for the crazies GOP circus that mccarthy will be presiding over.

other races:
As things stand, the GOP has lost one Senate seat, two governor’s mansions and four state legislative chambers.

one of the worst midterm showings for the party not in power.
Thx trump

https://twitter.com/x/status/1590674429524295680

 

[hal2kilo]

I too am wondering.... Will Trump Announce ???
What did this mean for Trump?
The failure of the Trump endorsements puts Trump in a pickle because one thing we do know about Donald Trump, to lose is extremely embarrassing for him. And Donald Trump does not like to be embarrassed, oh no he does not.
If he announces a run, now he knows he just could lose and lose in several ways. One, to lose to DeSantis in a primary or even worse to lose against Mike Pence in a primary. Second, Trump could easily lose the 2024 election itself, assuming he wins the republican nomination. And I definitely would not assume THAT.

Naw, I think after what happened on election night 2022, I think Donald Trump will not run. He will however toy with the idea of running to his base and in his rallies, but he won't run. He can't. He knows he just might lose. AGAIN! ouch....

The party is trying to find a big enough pillow to shove down Trump's throat at the moment.

 

[JEDI]

Trump vs DeSantis
Let the Hunger Games begin.
may the odds be forever in your favor Donald.

since it seems like the Don is now the underdog with the (lack of) Red Wave in the midterms

 

[vi edit]

Will be interesting to see how DeSantis and his slightly moist Brillo pad of a personality play nationally.

 

[MrSquished]

Will be interesting to see how DeSantis and his slightly moist Brillo pad of a personality play nationally.

Trump is actually right when he says DeSantis has been held up by a massive public relations operation. I've never seen an actual good clip of him saying anything particularly inspiring to the filth that is the Republican party

 

[alien42]

2022 midterms, the red incontinence

 

[Pens1566]

Will be interesting to see how DeSantis and his slightly moist Brillo pad of a personality play nationally.

He's lived inside an insulated bubble for his entire run as governor. Only friendlies are allowed around him or in his "press conferences". He won't do well outside the state when he can't tell FL state police to remove people. Dude is a huge snowflake ...

 

[eelw]

Dude is a huge snowflake ...

Exactly. Really don’t get why people think he is the heir apparent. Orange monkey in a skirt would eat him up and spit him out.

 

[thilanliyan]

He's lived inside an insulated bubble for his entire run as governor. Only friendlies are allowed around him or in his "press conferences". He won't do well outside the state when he can't tell FL state police to remove people. Dude is a huge snowflake ...

Yeah that's why I prefer him as the next GOP pres candidate cause Trump would do better against the Dem imo.

 

[Bitek]

I've heard it called a Red Wedding though it's possible they were saying bed wetting.

I've heard that one and approve. Perfectly on point

My personal contribution was Red Spotting.

Y'all may Google it if you don't know

 

[soundforbjt]

I've heard that one and approve. Perfectly on point

My personal contribution was Red Spotting.

Y'all may Google it if you don't know

Can’t remember if it was Kimmel or Colbert but they said it was like if you accidentally washed your MAGA hat with your Klan robe.

 

[Bitek]

Can’t remember if it was Kimmel or Colbert but they said it was like if you accidentally washed your MAGA hat with your Klan robe.

I was making an STD and menstruation reference, but that works too


So much for drinking liberal tears hahahahahah

 

[senseamp]

We need to send redistricting back to legislature in California to gerrymander Republicans out like they do to Democrats in other states.

 

[Commodus]

It's ironic that the one thing that might save the US from a right-wing autocracy is the man who most wanted to be the autocrat — Trump is great at scaring people into voting Dem knowing how horrible he was as President.

Not that I'm expecting the GOP to have truly learned its lesson by 2028, but any extra time from a Dem win in 2024 could help counteract GOP election rigging efforts through demographic shifts and local legislature changes. The worst nightmare for the Republicans is the one-two combo of a diverse country and genuinely fair elections.

 

[manly]

It's ironic that the one thing that might save the US from a right-wing autocracy is the man who most wanted to be the autocrat — Trump is great at scaring people into voting Dem knowing how horrible he was as President.

Not that I'm expecting the GOP to have truly learned its lesson by 2028, but any extra time from a Dem win in 2024 could help counteract GOP election rigging efforts through demographic shifts and local legislature changes. The worst nightmare for the Republicans is the one-two combo of a diverse country and genuinely fair elections.

Yeah it's a bit funny to read a few peeps say Trump is the strongest GOP candidate when he's basically lost every general election popular vote he's been involved in. And by that, I mean 2016, 2018, 2020 and 2022. What people don't realize about DJT is what 538 said years ago. He has a high floor (meaning rabid base support of at least 33% but not much greater) but a low ceiling (he can't crack 50% as a candidate himself, and only exceeds that under ideal circumstances: i.e. endorsing J.D. Vance in a red state).