It is possible that Democrats will gain, not lose in November. Here's why/how.

[Greenman]

I think the Republicans will not nominate an OPENLY gay person any time soon. Pretty sure they’ve nominated and elected several closeted ones.

Lots of closeted everything in the republican party. The problem the party has is the idiots are all out in the open and make the most noise.

 

[woolfe9998]

Never forget that Prop 8 banning gay marriage PASSED in CA with 53% just 14 years ago.

Yes, with 48% support from white voters, 51% support from Asians, 52% support from Hispanics, and 70% support from African Americans.

Yes, there are active far right groups and associated assholes here as in every other state, but that isn't the problem in regard to a gay candidate not being able to win a dem primary.

 

[dawp]

I think the Republicans will not nominate an OPENLY gay person any time soon. Pretty sure they’ve nominated and elected several closeted ones.

especially after Mark Foley.

 

[uclaLabrat]

Lots of closeted everything in the republican party. The problem the party has is the idiots are all out in the open and make the most noise.

Definitely a lot of closeted smart people.

 

[sportage]

WHOA... I'm afraid that dems are going to be slaughtered in the midterms. A real bloodbath.
I just came from Wally World earlier tonight and my eyes are bugging. Prices for a majority of items have increased a full two+ dollars since a few weeks ago. And THAT increase was after an equal increase just a few weeks before.
For example, I like to buy the large slabs of chicken breasts, usually six in a carton. I buy them for the doggies. I cook them, slice them up into cubes, and use as a noontime treat.
Before all this price insanity, a typical slab of six was around $9 - $10. Today I could not believe my eyes. I paid $16 for a typical slab of six. Many cartons of chicken breasts were even higher costing up to $20 for six. Naturally, its all about the weight, but $16? OMG WTF!!!

Then came a six pack of Snickers bars, full sized, for me not the doggies. I remember when a six pack of stickers went for $4.88 at wally world, then the price jumped to $5.74. But today???
$7.54...
SEVEN FIFTY FOUR. That is seven dollars and fifty four cents. That is an increase of $2.66 over maybe six weeks? Four weeks?
Take THAT increase then multiply by hundreds of other items on the shelves. Doing the math, that adds up to:
A democratic bloodbath.

And second, a big resounding "who cares about the Jan 6th hearings". And third, a huge win for candidates like Dr Oz and Herschel Walker... BIG WIN!!! And forth and worse of all, pissed off democrats staying at home on election night. Simply not voting. After all, it's hard to be a democrat with the congress and presidency held by democrats while you as a democrat are being ravaged financially in the grocery stores and at the gas pumps, and ravaged at every turn. HOW, tell me HOW do you convince a democrat to get out and vote under those conditions? You don't. You can't. You won't.

I had hoped that the abortion issue would save democrats in the midterms, but now I believe the economy has pushed abortion rights to the background. Abortion is certainly a big issue for the pro-choice, but weigh that against sticker shock at the grocery store and I believes sticker shock will win out. And sticker shock will keep democrats at home on election night, or worse.... to vote for "the other guy".

So.... how many hours after republicans take the house and senate will Donald Trump announce his candidacy for 2024? 24 hours? Less?

 

[eelw]

But are other Dems pushing back, inflation is a worldwide trend and each country’s leader has very little control on this. Unless you really want a dictator and have the leader control government and large corporations. Biden says Putin inflation. Sanders is pushing this narrative. But sadly the average citizen is too stupid to see this. Dems need to be showing other countries are experiencing the same financial pain, not some Biden induced problem.

 

[gothuevos]

WHOA... I'm afraid that dems are going to be slaughtered in the midterms. A real bloodbath.
I just came from Wally World earlier tonight and my eyes are bugging. Prices for a majority of items have increased a full two+ dollars since a few weeks ago. And THAT increase was after an equal increase just a few weeks before.
For example, I like to buy the large slabs of chicken breasts, usually six in a carton. I buy them for the doggies. I cook them, slice them up into cubes, and use as a noontime treat.
Before all this price insanity, a typical slab of six was around $9 - $10. Today I could not believe my eyes. I paid $16 for a typical slab of six. Many cartons of chicken breasts were even higher costing up to $20 for six. Naturally, its all about the weight, but $16? OMG WTF!!!

Then came a six pack of Snickers bars, full sized, for me not the doggies. I remember when a six pack of stickers went for $4.88 at wally world, then the price jumped to $5.74. But today???
$7.54...
SEVEN FIFTY FOUR. That is seven dollars and fifty four cents. That is an increase of $2.66 over maybe six weeks? Four weeks?
Take THAT increase then multiply by hundreds of other items on the shelves. Doing the math, that adds up to:
A democratic bloodbath.

And second, a big resounding "who cares about the Jan 6th hearings". And third, a huge win for candidates like Dr Oz and Herschel Walker... BIG WIN!!! And forth and worse of all, pissed off democrats staying at home on election night. Simply not voting. After all, it's hard to be a democrat with the congress and presidency held by democrats while you as a democrat are being ravaged financially in the grocery stores and at the gas pumps, and ravaged at every turn. HOW, tell me HOW do you convince a democrat to get out and vote under those conditions? You don't. You can't. You won't.

I had hoped that the abortion issue would save democrats in the midterms, but now I believe the economy has pushed abortion rights to the background. Abortion is certainly a big issue for the pro-choice, but weigh that against sticker shock at the grocery store and I believes sticker shock will win out. And sticker shock will keep democrats at home on election night, or worse.... to vote for "the other guy".

So.... how many hours after republicans take the house and senate will Donald Trump announce his candidacy for 2024? 24 hours? Less?

The RoEvEMbeR push has fizzled out. Abortion ranked dead last in importance in this poll. Whether they deserve blame for it or not, inflation and gas/food prices will be the primary reason the Dems lose badly.

The scary part is that we probably won't even see the full effect of the OPEC cuts until after the midterms. And when gas goes up, food goes up too. Gonna get real bad for some people.

Republicans hold new polling advantage for taking back Congress: NYT poll

Republicans hold a 4-point advantage over Democrats with the midterm elections less than a month away, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll published Monday. About 49 percent of likely …

thehill.com

 

[fskimospy]

The RoEvEMbeR push has fizzled out. Abortion ranked dead last in importance in this poll. Whether they deserve blame for it or not, inflation and gas/food prices will be the primary reason the Dems lose badly.

The scary part is that we probably won't even see the full effect of the OPEC cuts until after the midterms. And when gas goes up, food goes up too. Gonna get real bad for some people.

Republicans hold new polling advantage for taking back Congress: NYT poll

Republicans hold a 4-point advantage over Democrats with the midterm elections less than a month away, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll published Monday. About 49 percent of likely …

thehill.com

538 gives democrats about 2-1 odds to keep the senate and Republicans about 3-1 odds to take the house.

Can you explain why you’re right and they are wrong, especially given their strong predictive history and your weak one?

 

[Mai72]

Roe vs Wade might save the dems, but gas prices are skyrocketing again. Especially diesel.

 

[fskimospy]

Roe vs Wade might save the dems, but gas prices are skyrocketing again. Especially diesel.

Hey who knows, maybe gas prices sink the democrats and we get a huge red wave. All I’m asking for here is the thought process he used to arrive at his statement.

 

[gothuevos]

Hey who knows, maybe gas prices sink the democrats and we get a huge red wave. All I’m asking for here is the thought process he used to arrive at his statement.

Many polls have already shown Oz and Walker catching up if not dead even given margins of error. Inflation and gas prices again coming to the forefront these last few weeks will probably help get these GOP candidates across the finish line.

538 is not infallible. The best historic predictor of midterm results has been Presidential popularity (or lack thereof) and the "incumbent disadvantage." This has withstood the test of time with very, very few exceptions.

Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'll happily eat crow and you are free to say I told you so.

 

[fskimospy]

Many polls have already shown Oz and Walker catching up if not dead even given margins of error. Inflation and gas prices again coming to the forefront these last few weeks will probably help get these GOP candidates across the finish line.

Meh. Georgia will be close, but we always knew that as it's a slightly red leaning state overall. I think PA will be won by Fetterman.

538 is not infallible. The best historic predictor of midterm results has been Presidential popularity (or lack thereof) and the "incumbent disadvantage." This has withstood the test of time with very, very few exceptions.

While thermostatic opinion is definitely a thing it doesn't exist in a vacuum. The main reason Democrats are likely to hold the Senate for example is that the map is very favorable for them - it is why they are 2-1 favorites to win the Senate and 3-1 underdogs to lose the House.

Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'll happily eat crow and you are free to say I told you so.

I am skeptical of this as it didn't happen after 2020. While I would certainly prefer the Democrats to win everything I don't try to delude myself - the Republicans are likely to win at least one chamber of Congress but I don't conjure up fantasies of impeachment conviction supermajorities.

 

[K1052]

Many polls have already shown Oz and Walker catching up if not dead even given margins of error. Inflation and gas prices again coming to the forefront these last few weeks will probably help get these GOP candidates across the finish line.

538 is not infallible. The best historic predictor of midterm results has been Presidential popularity (or lack thereof) and the "incumbent disadvantage." This has withstood the test of time with very, very few exceptions.

Hey, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I'll happily eat crow and you are free to say I told you so.

Pollsters have switched from registered voters to likely voters since the election is close. So a lot of it depends now on how R leaning the pollsters see the electorate. I don't know what's going to happen exactly and I'm not sure anybody else does so mostly just look at the averages.

 

[K1052]

Meh. Georgia will be close, but we always knew that as it's a slightly red leaning state overall.

Yes, this is a couple point race. Walker could literally die tomorrow and the margin would not open.

I think PA will be won by Fetterman.

Agree and Shapiro is going to fortunately take Mastriano to the cleaners.

 

[fskimospy]

Yes, this is a couple point race. Walker could literally die tomorrow and the margin would not open.

Agree and Shapiro is going to fortunately take Mastriano to the cleaners.

Not a joke - I think dying would probably help Walker. It would at least stop him from doing any more interviews.

 

[K1052]

Not a joke - I think dying would probably help Walker. It would at least stop him from doing any more interviews.

If he refused the debate and didn't speak to the press for two months before the election he'd probably be up 5 points by now.

 

[dank69]

These are the 3 messages Democrats need to universally HAMMER between now and election day, along with Roe:

 

[Muse]

Honestly I don't see how the Republicans winning the House or Senate or both will bring down inflation. Good chance it would get worse. They're in the pockets of the corporations and they like higher prices = higher profits.

 

[fskimospy]

Honestly I don't see how the Republicans winning the House or Senate or both will bring down inflation. Good chance it would get worse. They're in the pockets of the corporations and they like higher prices = higher profits.

Well if you take the NRSC's stated plan at face value their proposal is to give rich people another big tax cut and balance that out by cutting social security and medicare and raising taxes on the middle class and poor. If they raised taxes on poor people enough or cut social security/medicare enough they would probably reduce inflation, although I'm not sure if people would consider that a win.

 

[K1052]

Well if you take the NRSC's stated plan at face value their proposal is to give rich people another big tax cut and balance that out by cutting social security and medicare and raising taxes on the middle class and poor. If they raised taxes on poor people enough or cut social security/medicare enough they would probably reduce inflation, although I'm not sure if people would consider that a win.

Party of the working people is going to shut down the government unit Biden agrees to extend the Trump tax cuts for corporations.

 

[Muse]

Well if you take the NRSC's stated plan at face value their proposal is to give rich people another big tax cut and balance that out by cutting social security and medicare and raising taxes on the middle class and poor. If they raised taxes on poor people enough or cut social security/medicare enough they would probably reduce inflation, although I'm not sure if people would consider that a win.

You're not sure? If people who aren't wealthy can't afford stuff and the demand goes down, forcing prices down, only the people who can afford stuff (the wealthy) "win." It's a net loss for everyone else.

 

[fskimospy]

You're not sure? If people who aren't wealthy can't afford stuff and the demand goes down, forcing prices down, only the people who can afford stuff (the wealthy) "win." It's a net loss for everyone else.

Oh that was sarcasm.

 

[Muse]

Oh that was sarcasm.

I know, but I wanted to comment. I had to grind on why what you said meant inflation might go down, saw it and wanted to point out that it would not help anyone but people with lots of coin.

 

[soundforbjt]

Kari Lake refused to answer if she would accept the election results if she lost.

 

[gothuevos]

Kari Lake refused to answer if she would accept the election results if she lost.

People need to stop acting like this is some big news - this is now the way to actually gain votes within the GOP.