Is unemployment getting worse?

[fskimospy]

The fact is, unemployment went back up after the holiday spending spree was over. There is no reason to adjust that, its a fact.

You do not adjust facts.

This is pretty /facepalm worthy.

Nobody is adjusting any facts, they are filtering out noise in the data to get at the underlying thing they are trying to measure, which is in fact NOT either the total change in employment by month or the sum total of all people who aren't headed to work on a given day.

Christ.

 

[Texashiker]

Nobody is adjusting any facts, they are filtering out noise in the data to get at the underlying thing they are trying to measure, which is in fact NOT either the total change in employment by month or the sum total of all people who aren't headed to work on a given day.

Christ.

You speak from what you have read, I speak from experience.

Don't worry, maybe one day you will grow up and be able to form your own opinion. That is unless you like regurgitating what you read on various sites.

 

[fskimospy]

You speak from what you have read, I speak from experience.

Don't worry, maybe one day you will grow up and be able to form your own opinion. That is unless you like regurgitating what you read on various sites.

I am speaking incontestable facts. Period. You do not understand the topic or the terms under discussion. If you did, you wouldn't be saying this.

 

[Capt Caveman]

You speak from what you have read, I speak from experience.

Don't worry, maybe one day you will grow up and be able to form your own opinion. That is unless you like regurgitating what you read on various sites.

What experience? The subject is completely over your head if you don't understand why you would want to compare monthly unemployment numbers using a constant (seasonally adjusted or non-seasonally adjusted).

And it's even sadder you can't differentiate the two when a biased article and OP try to mix the two to mislead ignorant readers.

When you use season-adjustments, you get a truer picture of the unemployment numbers and economy.

 

[Texashiker]

I am speaking incontestable facts. Period.

Going through life never admitting you are wrong is going to take you down a rough road.

What experience? The subject is completely over your head

You do nothing but post insults.

Please come back when you post something worth reading.

 

[fskimospy]

Going through life never admitting you are wrong is going to take you down a rough road.

That the BLS is not trying to measure those things with job growth numbers and its commonly cited unemployment rate is an incontestable fact, yet it is one you are taking issue with.

Going through life taking strong positions about things you don't understand is going to take you down a rough road.

 

[dank69]

Going through life never admitting you are wrong is going to take you down a rough road.

...

Perhaps you can tell us what you've encountered so far on that road.

 

[Blackjack200]

What experience? The subject is completely over your head if you don't understand why you would want to compare monthly unemployment numbers using a constant (seasonally adjusted or non-seasonally adjusted).

And it's even sadder you can't differentiate the two when a biased article and OP try to mix the two to mislead ignorant readers.

When you use season-adjustments, you get a truer picture of the unemployment numbers and economy.

Actually, they're comparing the unadjusted mid January number (8.3%) to the unadjusted mid February number (9.0%)

They did this despite the fact that there is a more recent tick - 8.6% at the end of January.

Why? Because the BLS 8.3% adjusted number from 1/31 is in everyone's head, so they're just hoping you don't notice that these are actually two different statistics.

So no, it's not that these people who are stupid or careless, it's that they are deliberately misleading people to forward their agenda. Their narrative of deficit spending leading to ruin does not match up to what we are seeing in the economy, so they are resorting to the lowest scumbag tactics that they can come up with. They are pure vile scum, cockroaches. As far as I'm concerned, the new american is now on the same level as the onion in terms of news accuracy.

 

[umbrella39]

The OP is a walking college level 101 course in making fallacious arguments if you even want to call them that. Way to connect the invisible dots that swirl in your head.

 

[hal2kilo]

Going through life never admitting you are wrong is going to take you down a rough road.

Pot meet kettle.

 

[woolfe9999]

/facepalm

 

[Thump553]

If the most Sacred Dr. Paul ever did get elected, and if he somehow persuaded the legislative branch to adopt his agenda, I would predict unemployment would immediately skyrocket to well over 20%. But franky that would be one of the lesser of the problems he would cause. The list would probably be toped by him causing the collapse of the US economy (along with much of the world) and the installation of Red China as the world's dominant power.

BTW, slick move OP on the grossly misleading and erroneous unemployment numbers you used in the original post.

 

[sactoking]

I'm not surprised because of more Obamacare about to take effect

The only new facet of "Obamacare" that has taken effect recently or will come into effect in the near future is the $2,800,000,000 tax on pharmaceuticals that took effect on 1/1/12, and even that won't really be felt until later in the year.

 

[Ketchup]

In response to the thread title, disappointed but not really surprised. According to BLS.gov, unemployment in January was 8.3%, and 7.6% when Obama took office in January 2009.

I keep hearing the economy is getting better, but I don't see that at all.

 

[Ausm]

February is not even over. More bs and lies from the OP.

I love how the bs article the OP links compares the gov't numbers(seasonally adjusted) with the gallup numbers instead of comparing apples to apples. The gallup numbers show an increase of 8.6 to 9%. Factor in season adjustments and it'll show at the end of Feb that unemployment went down when the real numbers come out.

Lock this thread.

Agreed total bullshit thread....

 

[monovillage]

February is not even over. More bs and lies from the OP.

I love how the bs article the OP links compares the gov't numbers(seasonally adjusted) with the gallup numbers instead of comparing apples to apples. The gallup numbers show an increase of 8.6 to 9%. Factor in season adjustments and it'll show at the end of Feb that unemployment went down when the real numbers come out.

Lock this thread.

What the fuck? Now only the left/Democrats numbers are going to be allowed in a post? Only "approved" sources? Go screw yourselves.

 

[Blackjack200]

What the fuck? Now only the left/Democrats numbers are going to be allowed in a post? Only "approved" sources? Go screw yourselves.

lol

 

[monovillage]

Yup, thread should be locked and original post should be labeled clearly as misinformation.

Not surprising that the left/Democrats here try to stifle debate in these forums by manipulating forum rules.

 

[Anarchist420]

Alright, as for February not being all the way over, it's close to 3/4 over. As for comparing seasonal to monthly, it's actually not apples to oranges. It's a fair comparison because a monthly unemployment figure is more precise than a quarterly just as a daily unemployment figure is more precise than a monthly.

Also, don't forget who controls the BLS statistics. It's the same idea as when the BLS said GDP increased, when it didn't. Inflation was too high for a positive GDP growth.

These stats don't even measure the quality of life anyway (nothing can which means stats don't mean a whole lot), but I think the government should be called out for lying.

 

[dank69]

Alright, as for February not being all the way over, it's close to 3/4 over. As for comparing seasonal to monthly, it's actually not apples to oranges. It's a fair comparison because a monthly unemployment figure is more precise than a quarterly just as a daily unemployment figure is more precise than a monthly.

Also, don't forget who controls the BLS statistics. It's the same idea as when the BLS said GDP increased, when it didn't. Inflation was too high for a positive GDP growth.

These stats don't even measure the quality of life anyway (nothing can which means stats don't mean a whole lot), but I think the government should be called out for lying.

Seasonal doesn't mean quarterly.

 

[werepossum]

Gallop's numbers are probably more accurate, but I think the more important thing is the general trend of the number of jobs. Base unemployment can vary considerably with the same number of people employed depending on the unemployed people's perception of the job situation - if you don't believe there is any point in looking for a job (and therefore aren't), you aren't counted as unemployed because you aren't looking. The number of people working is a far less subjective measurement, and far more important to our economy.

This is purely subjective, but we went to Barnes and Noble this weekend which is located in a large mall (Hamilton Place) here in Chattanooga and the mall was packed. Honestly, it looked like mid December. And the out parcel restaurants were so busy the people were lined up outside - and these are fairly expensive restaurants. (The restaurant where we ate, a less expensive Italian/Greek restaurant run by Mexicans/South Americans far from the mall, was not at all busy, but that is probably because they just reopened from a fire and people aren't back in the habit of going there, plus it's an Adventist town on a Saturday when most businesses are closed.)

All in all, I've seen nothing to indicate a sudden downturn. Certainly our business is booming.

 

[First]

Going through life never admitting you are wrong is going to take you down a rough road.




You do nothing but post insults.

Please come back when you post something worth reading.

Your post was horribly misinformed, and you'd be laughed out of any halfway decent university classroom that teaches fundamental economics. Seasonal adjustments are fundamental.

 

[Ausm]

What the fuck? Now only the left/Democrats numbers are going to be allowed in a post? Only "approved" sources? Go screw yourselves.

Foaming up your monitor again?

 

[Fern]

Unemployment up in February. Are you surprised?

I wouldn't be surprised if it moved either way, and I'm doubtful it would tell us much.

IMO, the whole 'labor participation' thing muddies the water too much. Because of it, I could see unemployment numbers getting worse even though employment was better due to more people gaining hope and looking for a job, and vice-versa.

Fern

 

[boochi]

but, but, Bush