Is this the official 2013 Fantasy Football thread?

[MetalMat]

I'm picking up Peyton "Fightin'" Hillis in every league. Giants will run the table and go to the super bowl on his legs.

 

[MetalMat]

Giants sign Peyton Hillis.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/f...-back-peyton-hillis-sources-article-1.1487253

Imagine Brandon Jacobs and Hillis on the field at the same time. That's 500 lbs of back running at you.

500 lbs of 1.5 yards per attempt

 

[SP33Demon]

^
if anyone needed proof that PFF doesn't automatically make you a genius, nor does typing large paragraphs

Frankly, Megatron needs to put up or shut up, and with a higher drop rate and way less yards per route than Boldin he's been barely more valuable and only because of 4 vs 2 TDs. Boldin's, as a #1 target on a team that splits pass/rush attempts down the middle (yes I know, I thought they ran more too), numbers will be even higher now that V.Davis is just about at full strength and Megatron will continue to get doubled since the other Lion receivers are drop happy. Feel free to tell me why my assessment is wrong but nobody gives a shit about opinions unless you can back it up with evidence.

 

[SP33Demon]

Is McFadden droppable? He has been injured for a few weeks and Pryor is running a lot. McFadden last broke 10 points in week 3 and that was only because of a throwing TD.

On this team I have:

A. Foster
J. Randle
B. Powell
G. Bernard
S. Jackson (I picked him up off waivers and his injury is looking like it is going to take even longer)

I would still take McFadden over Randle any day. Randle is a huge unknown and we have no idea how many snaps he'll get, Tanner could get more than we realize. Dunbar could also be back in the next two weeks. McFadden has a juicy schedule coming up, with only the NYG to contend with (who can be kept honest in the air) through December regarding Run Defenses.

 

[slayer202]

Frankly, Megatron needs to put up or shut up, and with a higher drop rate and way less yards per route than Boldin he's been barely more valuable and only because of 4 vs 2 TDs. Boldin's, as a #1 target on a team that splits pass/rush attempts down the middle (yes I know, I thought they ran more too), numbers will be even higher now that V.Davis is just about at full strength and Megatron will continue to get doubled since the other Lion receivers are drop happy. Feel free to tell me why my assessment is wrong but nobody gives a shit about opinions unless you can back it up with evidence.

you don't seem to understand that numbers alone don't tell you all you need to know. I'm not going to bother trying to explain things to you. drop rate and yards per route? get off it

 

[chitwood]

Frankly, Megatron needs to put up or shut up, and with a higher drop rate and way less yards per route than Boldin he's been barely more valuable and only because of 4 vs 2 TDs.

...through 5 games. This is also counting Boldin's miracle 13 catch - 208yard game 1... what about the rest of the year? What is most likely to happen?

Boldin's, as a #1 target on a team

I'd argue Boldin is NOT the #1 target on his team. That's Vernon Davis. Almost the same amount of yards, Davis has way more TD's (6 to 2) which you seem to be downplaying the value of for some reason.

Megatron will continue to get doubled since the other Lion receivers are drop happy.

That is NOT why Megatron is doubled.

I see your evidence and your stats, but I'm sorry I (and slayer as well) will never buy that Calvin Johnson is equally as valuable as Anquan Boldin in fantasy.

 

[glenn1]

I see your evidence and your stats, but I'm sorry I (and slayer as well) will never buy that Calvin Johnson is equally as valuable as Anquan Boldin in fantasy.

He's confusing value on paper with value in real life fantasy trading. A straight up Boldin-Megatron trade would get an instant veto from me, and I have never vetoed a trade in my life.

 

[glenn1]

Gronk still not medically cleared to play as of today. Glad I didn't draft him in any of my leagues because it's starting to look like he might not play at all this year.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/10/17/4848406/rob-gronkowski-injury-update-drew-rosenhaus

 

[slayer202]

no it's not

 

[Chess]

I would still take McFadden over Randle any day. Randle is a huge unknown and we have no idea how many snaps he'll get, Tanner could get more than we realize. Dunbar could also be back in the next two weeks. McFadden has a juicy schedule coming up, with only the NYG to contend with (who can be kept honest in the air) through December regarding Run Defenses.

as long as Run DMC is healthy he will be playing...

Dont worry you coudl be like me and have Brees, Lynch, Welker, V Davis, Andre Johnson and Fitz and still be 2-4 unreal

 

[KeithTalent]

Gronk still not medically cleared to play as of today. Glad I didn't draft him in any of my leagues because it's starting to look like he might not play at all this year.

http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/10/17/4848406/rob-gronkowski-injury-update-drew-rosenhaus

I doubt that, but it may not be until after their bye in Week 10 at this point. It is weird he is apparently practising so hard though. Would have expected him back by now with all of those reports coming out.

KT

 

[glenn1]

I doubt that, but it may not be until after their bye in Week 10 at this point. It is weird he is apparently practising so hard though. Would have expected him back by now with all of those reports coming out.

KT

Even if he did, you probably needed to spend a 5th round pick to draft Gronk, or about 15% of your auction budget. That's not looking like an investment that will pay off at this point. Trust me about wasting resources as I'm pretty good working experience at it - in one league I traded Reggie Bush for David Wilson right before week 1. Thank goodness I only own him in that one league.

 

[Kev]

San Fran is a top 3 Run Blocking team, and 7th best Rushing team. Gore has 28 more attempts (103-75) with the same yards/carry @4.6 and 477 yards to 344 yards. Passing, Jackson makes up the difference 21-166yds vs Gore 5-56yds, so 510 Jackson vs 533 Gore and Jackson passes him with the extra TD.

With Buffalo having the 3rd worst Run Block in the league (and overall line), it's impressive what FJax has done while splitting time with Spiller. Looking deeper, FJax is in the top 10 of Elusiveness (#9) vs Gore at #12 for Missed Tackles. However, Gore is numero uno in Breakaway % (15 yards or more) and FJax #15, huge difference there. Can FJax's versatility in the passing game keep accounting for the huge chunks of yardage that Gore rips off - Gore has 53% of his yards from runs > 15 yards. Next closest is AP at 43%, that's how dominant Gore is.

On PFF Run rating, Gore is 5th vs 23rd for FJax, although FJax is 20 vs 43 on receiving.

Taking into account Gore's 103-75 advantage on attempts and his chunk advantage, I think Gore is more valuable and will get more time of possession due to SF's superior top 3 defense. FJax will have to continue his same rate of carries AND receptions to keep up, as well as hope his middle of the pack defense can get him on the field. I just don't think it's sustainable. FJax's only easy games are the Falcons and Steelers, Gore has Rams/Skins/Jags Titans, with #20 RBlock Panthers and the #16 RBlock Saints may be the only team in his path pre-playoffs. Gore is going to feast.

Megatron always is a huge threat, but I'm not sold on his knees this year. He grades at #23 vs #32 Boldin. Boldin has almost 100 more yards but Calvin makes up for it with his 2 more TDs. They have a similar drop rate (11% for Calvin vs slightly better 9% Boldin), both aren't great. More importantly, Boldin has a superior Yards Per Route Run at 2.30 (#9) vs Calvin's 1.77 (#30). With virtually identical targets, Boldin is clearly earning more yards on his routes but Calvin makes up for it with TDs. Both have good defenses, so that won't matter. Based on these metrics (and not including the penalties + blocking Boldin has hurt his team with but not relevant to fantasy), Boldin has performed almost as well Megatron. Of course Megatron has more upside though.

So on a scale of 1-10 I'd rate:
Gore 9, FJax 8.
Megatron 8, Boldin 7.
Zac Stacy has 172 yards and is a starter on a team with a below average Run Block. I'll give him a 3.

So before Zac Stacy:
Even trade - 16 to 16. Stacy tips the trade to bottom feeder.

Interesting analysis, but it's kind of meaningless if you're only doing it with a 6 game sample size.

 

[SP33Demon]

He's confusing value on paper with value in real life fantasy trading. A straight up Boldin-Megatron trade would get an instant veto from me, and I have never vetoed a trade in my life.

I'm not confusing anything. I gave Megatron over 10% more value than Boldin even on paper. A straight up trade would be stupid, just as a straight up trade of Gore for FJax is stupid. The bottom line is that Boldin's extra game of production puts him on par with Megatron's lackadaisical production due to getting doubled. The Lions #2 wideout is Durham (who is a drop machine like Dobson on NE) since Edwards and Broyles sucked an egg and Burleson gone for who knows how long. This lack of another WR threat has really impacted Megatron's numbers and will continue to impact them.

The last 3 games Boldin has 21 targets, the same as V.Davis. Last week was the first week of the 3 that Davis had more targets, for all intents and purposes they are both #1's depending on the week.

 

[dbk]

Thoughts on this trade I just pulled off?

I get: Gronk, Steven Jackson
I give up: Lamar Miller, Keenen Allen, Peyton Hillis (lol?)

 

[SP33Demon]

...through 5 games. This is also counting Boldin's miracle 13 catch - 208yard game 1... what about the rest of the year? What is most likely to happen?

I see your evidence and your stats, but I'm sorry I (and slayer as well) will never buy that Calvin Johnson is equally as valuable as Anquan Boldin in fantasy.

Show me where I said that Calvin and Boldin were equal value. Reading comprehension.

What is most likely to happen? That really depends on the other receivers on the Lions. Durham stepped up last week but still had bad drops. Fauria came up big but obviously only in the red zone. I picked up Durham since Stafford expressed confidence in him and maybe he'll be Detroit's answer.

Boldin has Vernon Davis. Kaep will throw to whoever is winning their matchup, sometimes it's Boldin and other weeks it's Davis as the target watch shows. Obviously Davis is the bigger homerun threat, but Boldin is getting big yards per route thanks to the threat of Gore. Davis benefits even more, he's #1 in yards per route for TE's AND WR's with just about the same difference to Boldin (2.9 vs 2.3) as Boldin trumping Megatron (2.3 to 1.7). Davis is a monster, for comparison the top WR (DJackson) is producing 2.8/route.

 

[BudAshes]

I'm not confusing anything. I gave Megatron over 10% more value than Boldin even on paper. A straight up trade would be stupid, just as a straight up trade of Gore for FJax is stupid. The bottom line is that Boldin's extra game of production puts him on par with Megatron's lackadaisical production due to getting doubled. The Lions #2 wideout is Durham (who is a drop machine like Dobson on NE) since Edwards and Broyles sucked an egg and Burleson gone for who knows how long. This lack of another WR threat has really impacted Megatron's numbers and will continue to impact them.

The last 3 games Boldin has 21 targets, the same as V.Davis. Last week was the first week of the 3 that Davis had more targets, for all intents and purposes they are both #1's depending on the week.

Getting doubled isn't his problem. He's always doubled. It doesn't matter that much to him as he's so big he can just reach over people. The problem is that he's playing hurt. He also might be getting healthy, and that is going to be good news for those with CJ on their fantasy team. You are also over-valuing targets. Most of Boldins production came in one game. That's great if you had him for that game, but otherwise he's pretty much a bench player in a 10-12 team league.

 

[SP33Demon]

Thoughts on this trade I just pulled off?

I get: Gronk, Steven Jackson
I give up: Lamar Miller, Keenen Allen, Peyton Hillis (lol?)

Good trade, assuming Gronk puts up big numbers immediately upon return. SJax doesn't have a great OL but there are a couple soft spots in the schedule and Roddy White may actually try to get healthy this week and not play.

The only way it wouldn't be a good trade is if you are currently depending on L.Miller and Allen as starters.

 

[BudAshes]

Thoughts on this trade I just pulled off?

I get: Gronk, Steven Jackson
I give up: Lamar Miller, Keenen Allen, Peyton Hillis (lol?)

I really don't like this trade for you. Gronk is great, but he's a huge question mark. I think steven jackson is washed up, but I thought that about Brandon Jacobs too. Now he's starting for me in one league. I think Lamar Miller and Keenen Allen are going to be big in the second half if they stay healthy. It's all a crapshoot though. It seems like most trades end up just being whoever gets the guys that end up playing the most games healthy, wins. For instance before the season started I traded steven jackson, rothleserger and Jordy Nelson for Le'Veon Bell, Eddie Lacy and TY Hilton. He's won the trade so far purely because Jordy Nelson ended up being fully healthy despite major health questions before the season started.

 

[dbk]

Good trade, assuming Gronk puts up big numbers immediately upon return. SJax doesn't have a great OL but there are a couple soft spots in the schedule and Roddy White may actually try to get healthy this week and not play.

The only way it wouldn't be a good trade is if you are currently depending on L.Miller and Allen as starters.

Well, I just picked up Keenen Allen because I lost Cobb. I had been starting Miller but I'm pretty down on him.. so inconsistent and they keep running Daniel Thomas.

Rest of my lineup: Cam, Charles, McGahee (for now), Marshall, Gordon, Durham (for now).. This is a 14 team 0.5 ppr league. Obviously, if Jackson and Gronk come back healthy then I would reap the benefits. This is a risk I'm willing to take. I think Gronk will be back next week (maybe this week?)

 

[slayer202]

hey guys, I have jimmy graham on a bye this week. should i trade keenan allen for greg olsen? if i trade keenan allen i'll have to start chris givens or pick someone else up

 

[glenn1]

Well, I just picked up Keenen Allen because I lost Cobb. I had been starting Miller but I'm pretty down on him.. so inconsistent and they keep running Daniel Thomas.

Rest of my lineup: Cam, Charles, McGahee (for now), Marshall, Gordon, Durham (for now).. This is a 14 team 0.5 ppr league. Obviously, if Jackson and Gronk come back healthy then I would reap the benefits. This is a risk I'm willing to take. I think Gronk will be back next week (maybe this week?)

All depends on whether you can make the playoffs without needing the current production of the players you gave up. If you can, this trade is great. Allen is the only one of the guys you gave up that I'd really miss.

 

[Adrenaline]

I would still take McFadden over Randle any day. Randle is a huge unknown and we have no idea how many snaps he'll get, Tanner could get more than we realize. Dunbar could also be back in the next two weeks. McFadden has a juicy schedule coming up, with only the NYG to contend with (who can be kept honest in the air) through December regarding Run Defenses.

This league only requires one WR to be played. I was looking to add Blackmon. I know, he shouldn't be there, but he is.

Is there any RB I have that I can drop for him? My WR are Wayne, Gordon and D. Thomas.

 

[glenn1]

hey guys, I have jimmy graham on a bye this week. should i trade keenan allen for greg olsen? if i trade keenan allen i'll have to start chris givens or pick someone else up

You could and probably should upgrade an FA upgrade to Chris Givens no matter what you decide to do at TE as unfortunately he's not lived up to preseason expectations. Hope you can work out something good to fill your roster bye spots.

 

[SP33Demon]

Getting doubled isn't his problem. He's always doubled. It doesn't matter that much to him as he's so big he can just reach over people. The problem is that he's playing hurt. He also might be getting healthy, and that is going to be good news for those with CJ on their fantasy team. You are also over-valuing targets. Most of Boldins production came in one game. That's great if you had him for that game, but otherwise he's pretty much a bench player in a 10-12 team league.

I disagree. Boldin is in the top 20 in targets (#19), total yards (#17) and top 10 in YPRR (yds per route run). Calvin isn't even top 30 in YPPR (#31 - can't use him missing games as an excuse here), #30 in total yards (yes he missed a game), and #22 in targets (yes he missed a game). There are no disagreements that a healthy Calvin is money, but there should be agreement that Boldin's production this year has also been money. The only downside is that his production is feast or famine depending on whether SF wants to Gore the other team on the ground.

Outlining Boldin's uneven production:
Week
1) Green Bay, strong run D, weak secondary, start him. = 26.8 pts.
2) Seattle, strong run D AND secondary, bench him. = 0.70 pts
3) Indy, average run D, weak secondary, start him. = 6.70 pts
4) StL, horrible run D, above average secondary, defense is in bottom third, autostart. = 15.00 pts
5) Houston, average run D, weak secondary, start him. = 2.10 pts
6) AZ, above average run d, weak secondary, start him. = 2.80 pts
It will be interesting to see if he blows up against another strong run D, but we won't see that until Week 14 vs Seattle, and unfortunately they have the Legion of Boom so you bench him. AZ was a big test, but SF's OL won that battle handily and Boldin wasn't needed as much as we thought. So his production will remain unpredictable.