Is this the official 2013 Fantasy Football thread?

[leeland]

Tannehill, read my above post (he's 6th in QB rating on PFF), he's poised to turn into a really good QB. Considering Miami's defense is a plus play against Buffalo's QB Merry Go Round, Tannehill should get plenty of time to work. Also consider that Buffalo's run defense is 8th on the year so Miami will be forced to throw more against Buffalo's average secondary. Thaddeus Lewis (+1.2) and Brian Hoyer (+1.8) posted plus positive recent games and Tannehill is better than both. In addition, Tannehill's only been pressured on 1/3 of dropbacks (9th best), but oddly enough all of his pressures = sacks and he leads the league in being sacked. This is definitely something he can correct by checking down faster and/or recognizing when to throw the ball away. For example, RG3/Brees/Rodgers have around the same time to throw before pressure but have thrown it away 2-2.5X more instead of taking the sack (8-10 vs Tannehill's 4). Luckily Buffalo is #21 in Pass Rush to match up with Tannehill's average Pass blocking which should be highly favorable.

My 2nd vote is Weeden who has an ideal matchup since GB stuffs the run and he will be forced to pass against GB's crappy secondary. In addition, GB has the 3rd worst pass rush so Weeden should have a good amount of time to throw. This will be another QB matchup like GB/Ravens last week and Weeden/Cleveland have a decent chance of winning. Also keep in mind that Flacco (+1.2) and Tannehill (+4.4) have posted + numbers against Green Bay so it's time for Weeden to follow their lead. The only downside is that Weeden is the least accurate in the league under pressure (33%).

Henne vs SD would be #3, but if the Chargers decide to run a lot like they did vs Indy, you're screwed! Keep in mind Jax has the WORST run defense in the league so this is a very real outcome. However, SD has the WORST Pass coverage in the league (Luck should have sliced and diced if his receivers didn't drop every pass to kill drives) so Henne's receivers should be open a lot. Jax's pass blocking is actually decent (13th) vs SD below average pass rush. It's just a matter of how much time of possession will Henne have to throw with SD (and all of Jax's opponents) running the ball all day.

Glennon could have a decent day, the numbers are in his favor (horrid ATL pass coverage and pass rush, TB is average in pass blocking) but he's still error prone Glennon.

Big Ben vs Flacco, not touching that game since it's a rivalry and both teams have major issues (Flacco horrendous pass protection, Big Ben goes against a monster pass rush with 7th highest sack rate under pressure).

Dalton, going up against a good pass rush (7th best) and is 41% Completion under pressure with the same sack rate as Big Ben under pressure (22%). Not ideal.

Bradford going up against an above average pass rush and very good Pass Coverage team. Even with his good OL, too risky. If Carolina gets pressure on him, he's toast at 3rd worst completion % under pressure.

Excellent assessment!

 

[T2urtle]

RB/Flex issues. PPR league.

RB1. Charles is clear cut #1 no doubt.
RB2.... CJ0K, Lamar Miller, Zac Stacy.
Flex... G. Jennings.

I could also slide over the other RB into the flex.. I keep thinking the day i bench CJ he will have finally have a AVERAGE game (LOL).

Bench guys.
J. Bell (he is hurt to some degree, i have better options)
R. Wood ( worthless til EJ comes back)
D. Wilson (no sure WTF i'm still doing with him)

also i need to start scouting QB for week 8, Luck is on a bye. Ben, Palmer, Tanihill, Dalton is out there.

 

[MisterJackson]

Tannehill, read my above post (he's 6th in QB rating on PFF), he's poised to turn into a really good QB. Considering Miami's defense is a plus play against Buffalo's QB Merry Go Round, Tannehill should get plenty of time to work. Also consider that Buffalo's run defense is 8th on the year so Miami will be forced to throw more against Buffalo's average secondary. Thaddeus Lewis (+1.2) and Brian Hoyer (+1.8) posted plus positive recent games and Tannehill is better than both. In addition, Tannehill's only been pressured on 1/3 of dropbacks (9th best), but oddly enough all of his pressures = sacks and he leads the league in being sacked. This is definitely something he can correct by checking down faster and/or recognizing when to throw the ball away. For example, RG3/Brees/Rodgers have around the same time to throw before pressure but have thrown it away 2-2.5X more instead of taking the sack (8-10 vs Tannehill's 4). Luckily Buffalo is #21 in Pass Rush to match up with Tannehill's average Pass blocking which should be highly favorable.

My 2nd vote is Weeden who has an ideal matchup since GB stuffs the run and he will be forced to pass against GB's crappy secondary. In addition, GB has the 3rd worst pass rush so Weeden should have a good amount of time to throw. This will be another QB matchup like GB/Ravens last week and Weeden/Cleveland have a decent chance of winning. Also keep in mind that Flacco (+1.2) and Tannehill (+4.4) have posted + numbers against Green Bay so it's time for Weeden to follow their lead. The only downside is that Weeden is the least accurate in the league under pressure (33%) so GB will be blitzing to exploit that and it will come down to how well Weeden can beat that.

Henne vs SD would be #3, but if the Chargers decide to run a lot like they did vs Indy, you're screwed! Keep in mind Jax has the WORST run defense in the league so this is a very real outcome. However, SD has the WORST Pass coverage in the league (Luck should have sliced and diced if his receivers didn't drop every pass to kill drives) so Henne's receivers should be open a lot. Jax's pass blocking is actually decent (13th) vs SD below average pass rush. It's just a matter of how much time of possession will Henne have to throw with SD (and all of Jax's opponents) running the ball all day.

Glennon could have a decent day, the numbers are in his favor (horrid ATL pass coverage and pass rush, TB is average in pass blocking) but he's still error prone Glennon.

Big Ben vs Flacco, not touching that game since it's a rivalry and both teams have major issues (Flacco horrendous pass protection, Big Ben goes against a monster pass rush + Ben's 7th highest sack rate under pressure).

Dalton, going up against a good pass rush (7th best) and is 41% Completion under pressure with the same sack rate as Big Ben under pressure (22%). Not ideal.

Bradford going up against an above average pass rush and very good Pass Coverage team. Even with his good OL, too risky. If Carolina gets pressure on him, he's toast at 3rd worst completion % under pressure.

Geno, bottom half OL and Pats are a great cover team. They won't get a ton of pressure on him but have proven they can shut down good QBs like Brees. Of course Talib may not play but they are still nothing to scoff at as his backup did superb. Only Logan Ryan (CB) and Steve Gregory (SS) had negative numbers but that was against Brees. Geno could try picking on Logan Ryan, he's the only weakness in that secondary. However, I don't see him having a big day even without NE's lack of a pass rush.

Damn, dude...thanks is an understatement. That said, what are your thoughts on Freeman now that he's been green lit as Minnesota's starter?

Edit: For the record, you got me pretty sold on Tannehill. I'm just curious what you think of Freeman this week in comparison. I know the learning curve of a new playbook is there, and he is Freeman after all, which hasn't meant much lately. But I think Freeman HAS potential, I just don't know how much. Nor do I know how this match up stacks up, not in great detail like your post anyway.

 

[SP33Demon]

Rent a week 7 (and possibly beyond) defense question. This week and next 2 weeks games listed, with the exception of CLE they're listed in order of current points scored.

CLE (incumbent): @ GB, @ KC, BAL

TEN: @ SF, Bye, @ STL, JAC
DAL: @ PHI, @ DET, MIN
IND : DEN, Bye, @ HOU, STL
DET: CIN, DAL, Bye
STL: @ CAR, SEA, TEN
MIA: BUF, @ NE, CIN
TB: @ ATL, CAR, @ SEA

It's hard to tell what defenses will do beyond this week since we are using descriptive stats to predict the next week, cumulatively. I'll take a shot at this week though.

CLE against GB, if ever there was a week to go against GB, this is the week with Cobb and Jones out. Jordy will be on Haden island so he will be shut down and it'll be up to Boykin, Finley, and other unknowns to catch the ball since CLE should shut down the run. The Ravens compensated last week with big pressure on Rodgers, and CLE will bring decent pass coverage this week. CLE should be able to hold GB to a lower scoring game unless there is an unsung hero for GB catching the ball... hard to bet against Rodgers though, he can exploit any defense.

Dallas is a very average defense going against the top run blocking team in the league in Philly. I wouldn't touch it, McCoy and Foles are too dangerous.

Tenn has a great pass rush and great pass coverage team. They aren't great against the run (9th worst) and SF will be Gore-ing them on the ground. Not too keen on this.

Indy vs Denver, not touching it for obvious reasons.

Detroit is almost identical to Tenn, great pass rush/pass coverage but has trouble against the run. Cincy is going to run it a lot and should be successful.

STL, no way - Carolina has an incredible run blocking line and STL is one of the worst against the run. They are going to get gashed on the ground.

MIA has a monster pass rush with average run and pass coverages vs Buffalo's horrible OL (4th worst) and QB carousel. I'd go with this play for this week.

TB is just horrible at everything and a bottom half defense. Not even worth discussing other than the fact that ATL's OL is bottom half as well, flip a coin.

 

[MisterJackson]

My opponent this week is the opponent I faced in Week 1, and the team that summarily decimated me with Peyton at the helm. This guy usually runs a smart team, so I was worried about my first loss coming this week, ending my 4 game winning streak...but then I noticed he wasted a waiver pick on TB DS/T. Not sure wtf he's thinking there.

 

[SP33Demon]

Damn, dude...thanks is an understatement. That said, what are your thoughts on Freeman now that he's been green lit as Minnesota's starter?

Edit: For the record, you got me pretty sold on Tannehill. I'm just curious what you think of Freeman this week in comparison. I know the learning curve of a new playbook is there, and he is Freeman after all, which hasn't meant much lately. But I think Freeman HAS potential, I just don't know how much. Nor do I know how this match up stacks up, not in great detail like your post anyway.

NP man. Freeman, there isn't much data on him, only 3 games worth. I can only speculate on these numbers a bit from the grades from each game.

He's posted:

1) -4.4@NYJ,
LB's hurried Freeman 9 times, and CB 2 times and hit once which led to 3 sacks, however the NYJ pass rush was negative for that game. NYJ's Cromartie and the SS Allen had negative ratings (7-11 receptions given up), probably more of a function of Williams/Jackson stud ability. All in all, the NYJ Run Block was a beast in that game. Hence, by shutting down the Doug Martin run it really presented pressure for Freeman and affected his passing overall, including 3 penalties on his back.
When blitzed he was 6-13 with 1INT and 1 sack. -1.1 rating.
2) 0.6vsNO,
He was hurried 8 times, hit twice, sacked once. The pass rush was ok as well as run blocking.
When blitzed, 5-10 1TD 1INT 1Sack, -3.0 rating.
3) 1.6@Pats.
He was hurried 7 times, hit 4, sacked 5.
He did better vs blitz, 7-10 with 2 sacks, 0.5 rating.

So how will he do? Well the NYG have a pretty bad pass rush, but will probably stop Peterson or in the least slow him down. Considering there are some really terrible secondary players on NYG (Rolle, Thomas, Webster), Freeman should have a better shot at success than his first 3 tough draws. This is assuming he has learned a decent amount of the playbook in 1 week. However, he may not have much time of possession because I think NYG will run the ball down Minny's defensive throat, and Eli should be able to slice and dice at will if they go that route. But Freeman is set up for success due to a favorable matchup on his side of the ball vs that secondary. He shouldn't see much pressure aside from blitzes and NYG's LB's leave much to be desired, particulary Paysinger/Williams/Herzlich who are all in the red. If he fails in this matchup then it will be because of not knowing the playbook, otherwise he is just the suck. Either way I think NYG will win time of possession along with the game but Freeman may have his first respectable game.

 

[MisterJackson]

So if you were a betting man, would you take Freeman or Tannehill for this week (non PPR, and again, I don't need either beyond this week).

Also, not trying to blow smoke up your ass, but if you assess/speculate this well, have you ever considered doing it as a profession?

 

[SP33Demon]

So if you were a betting man, would you take Freeman or Tannehill for this week (non PPR, and again, I don't need either beyond this week).

Also, not trying to blow smoke up your ass, but if you assess/speculate this well, have you ever considered doing it as a profession?

Tannehill by a large margin since there's more data to go by, and Miami's defense should win out = more chances for the offense. MN's defense is horrible, which leaves less T.O.P. for Freeman.

Well, I do a lot of analysis for my profession, and am really just analyzing the advanced stats from PFF. I'm only as good as the data indicates, but it's been pretty accurate so far. For example, the Raven's O-Line as being horrible and Philly's O-Line as spectacular for run blocking has paid dividends (got rid of R.Rice on sell high, and picked up McCoy earlier in the year).

One thing I am anxious to see is how NY's top 5 Run Block goes against A-P, not a better test than that. They held Forte to 67yds on 19 carries last week, and the new MLB Jon Beason had a huge impact on the Run D (+2.9, noone even close to that).

Note: PFF does cumulatively have Eli 3 slots ahead of Tannehill (6 analysts, #13 vs #16). However, Tannehill probably won't have much of a run game vs the Bills whereas NYG should run with ease with Jacobs. Given that Tannehill has an incredibly higher QB rating than Eli, he's the safer bet in a game where he will be forced to pass more. But Eli could play action a ton and throw big, it's anyone's guess. My fav analyst (Miglio) has Tannehill 2 spots ahead, however (#8 vs #10). His predictions are usually pretty spot on.

 

[spidey07]

What is PFF?

 

[Crono]

What is PFF?

Pro Football Focus. Paid subscription-based site with statistics and analysis (though they have some free content). A lot of the fantasy football bloggers, news sites, and podcasters use it as a resource. It's pretty well respected in terms of meaningful and useful information for fantasy purposes.

 

[spidey07]

Pro Football Focus. Paid subscription-based site with statistics and analysis (though they have some free content). A lot of the fantasy football bloggers, news sites, and podcasters use it as a resource. It's pretty well respected in terms of meaningful and useful information for fantasy purposes.

Worth the price? I mean I listen to 2 hours of fantasy football shows a day.

 

[leeland]

so tell me if this is a shit trade or if I am wrong

league leader gives up:
Gore
Boldin
Zac Stacy

Gets from a bottom feeder
Calvin Johnson
Fred Jackson

I personally think it is shit but want to see what others say?

 

[glenn1]

so tell me if this is a shit trade or if I am wrong

league leader gives up:
Gore
Boldin
Zac Stacy

Gets from a bottom feeder
Calvin Johnson
Fred Jackson

I personally think it is shit but want to see what others say?

IMHO, Gore and FJax are a push. Fred may have more points now but Gore is the safer option for the rest of the season. Calvin is hurt but still worth way more than Boldin and Stacy. If owner #2 is completely against the wall for RB depth I can see making the trade, but it doesn't make much sense otherwise.

That being said, and while I think the bottom feeder owner is getting fleeced, I don't believe in vetoes unless the trade is obviously and ridiculously unfair without any qualifiers. I don't think this meets that standard. But likewise if the trade got vetoed, I wouldn't feel much pity for the league leader. He got greedy and deserves to take the risk that the trade gets vetoed.

 

[kstu]

so tell me if this is a shit trade or if I am wrong

league leader gives up:
Gore
Boldin
Zac Stacy

Gets from a bottom feeder
Calvin Johnson
Fred Jackson

I personally think it is shit but want to see what others say?

Seems pretty fair to me, certainly doesn't reek of collusion.

 

[spidey07]

so tell me if this is a shit trade or if I am wrong

league leader gives up:
Gore
Boldin
Zac Stacy

Gets from a bottom feeder
Calvin Johnson
Fred Jackson

I personally think it is shit but want to see what others say?

Leader is playing smart and stacking. No veto but I smack him in the face if accepts. Leader has playoffs in his target.

No veto and let the the loser suffer if he takes that. He's getting stole.

 

[leeland]

Leader is playing smart and stacking. No veto but I smack him in the face if accepts. Leader has playoffs in his target.

No veto and let the the loser suffer if he takes that. He's getting stole.

While I agree with you, I would do the same thing...if I had the chance...I am annoyed because they are friends and it is the commissioner that won on the deal

 

[SP33Demon]

Worth the price? I mean I listen to 2 hours of fantasy football shows a day.

I think it is. They break it into 2 parts: Advanced Statistics and Fantasy, both are $25. I've found the advanced statistics more useful but the Fantasy gives you access to the cumulative rating of 6 of their analysts which is useful to see if it matches close to your own analysis - they also have decent articles like Deep League Gems and breakdowns of each game. The main value for me comes from the statistics and each game meticulously broken down and graded for each position and person.

 

[BudAshes]

I think it is. They break it into 2 parts: Advanced Statistics and Fantasy, both are $25. I've found the advanced statistics more useful but the Fantasy gives you access to the cumulative rating of 6 of their analysts which is useful to see if it matches close to your own analysis - they also have decent articles like Deep League Gems and breakdowns of each game. The main value for me comes from the statistics and each game meticulously broken down and graded for each position and person.

The only reason you would need any of this stuff for fantasy football is if you play in super deep keeper leagues. Or for gambling purposes.

 

[Crono]

Giants sign Peyton Hillis.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/f...-back-peyton-hillis-sources-article-1.1487253

Imagine Brandon Jacobs and Hillis on the field at the same time. That's 500 lbs of back running at you.

 

[vi edit]

Giants sign Peyton Hillis.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/f...-back-peyton-hillis-sources-article-1.1487253

Imagine Brandon Jacobs and Hillis on the field at the same time. That's 500 lbs of back running at you.

Ha! Used to be thunder and lighting. ..now it's just Thunder and...more thunder.

 

[Crono]

Ha! Used to be thunder and lighting. ..now it's just Thunder and...more thunder.

I was caught
In the middle of a railroad track(Thunder)
I look a'round
And I knew there was no turning back (Thunder)
My mind raced
And I thought what could I do (Thunder)
And I knew
And I knew there was no help,no help from you (Thunder)

 

[SP33Demon]

so tell me if this is a shit trade or if I am wrong

league leader gives up:
Gore
Boldin
Zac Stacy

Gets from a bottom feeder
Calvin Johnson
Fred Jackson

I personally think it is shit but want to see what others say?

San Fran is a top 3 Run Blocking team, and 7th best Rushing team. Gore has 28 more attempts (103-75) with the same yards/carry @4.6 and 477 yards to 344 yards. Passing, Jackson makes up the difference 21-166yds vs Gore 5-56yds, so 510 Jackson vs 533 Gore and Jackson passes him with the extra TD.

With Buffalo having the 3rd worst Run Block in the league (and overall line), it's impressive what FJax has done while splitting time with Spiller. Looking deeper, FJax is in the top 10 of Elusiveness (#9) vs Gore at #12 for Missed Tackles. However, Gore is numero uno in Breakaway % (15 yards or more) and FJax #15, huge difference there. Can FJax's versatility in the passing game keep accounting for the huge chunks of yardage that Gore rips off - Gore has 53% of his yards from runs > 15 yards. Next closest is AP at 43%, that's how dominant Gore is.

On PFF Run rating, Gore is 5th vs 23rd for FJax, although FJax is 20 vs 43 on receiving.

Taking into account Gore's 103-75 advantage on attempts and his chunk advantage, I think Gore is more valuable and will get more time of possession due to SF's superior top 3 defense. FJax will have to continue his same rate of carries AND receptions to keep up, as well as hope his middle of the pack defense can get him on the field. I just don't think it's sustainable. FJax's only easy games are the Falcons and Steelers, Gore has Rams/Skins/Jags Titans, with #20 RBlock Panthers and the #16 RBlock Saints may be the only team in his path pre-playoffs. Gore is going to feast.

Megatron always is a huge threat, but I'm not sold on his knees this year. He grades at #23 vs #32 Boldin. Boldin has almost 100 more yards but Calvin makes up for it with his 2 more TDs. They have a similar drop rate (11% for Calvin vs slightly better 9% Boldin), both aren't great. More importantly, Boldin has a superior Yards Per Route Run at 2.30 (#9) vs Calvin's 1.77 (#30). With virtually identical targets, Boldin is clearly earning more yards on his routes but Calvin makes up for it with TDs. Both have good defenses, so that won't matter. Based on these metrics (and not including the penalties + blocking Boldin has hurt his team with but not relevant to fantasy), Boldin has performed almost as well Megatron. Of course Megatron has more upside though.

So on a scale of 1-10 I'd rate:
Gore 9, FJax 8.
Megatron 8, Boldin 7.
Zac Stacy has 172 yards and is a starter on a team with a below average Run Block. I'll give him a 3.

So before Zac Stacy:
Even trade - 16 to 16. Stacy tips the trade to bottom feeder.

 

[SP33Demon]

Giants sign Peyton Hillis.
http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/f...-back-peyton-hillis-sources-article-1.1487253

Imagine Brandon Jacobs and Hillis on the field at the same time. That's 500 lbs of back running at you.

Hmm, I wonder how many snaps Hillis will play! /mysterious

 

[Adrenaline]

Is McFadden droppable? He has been injured for a few weeks and Pryor is running a lot. McFadden last broke 10 points in week 3 and that was only because of a throwing TD.

On this team I have:

A. Foster
J. Randle
B. Powell
G. Bernard
S. Jackson (I picked him up off waivers and his injury is looking like it is going to take even longer)

 

[slayer202]

Megatron always is a huge threat, but I'm not sold on his knees this year. He grades at #23 vs #32 Boldin. Boldin has almost 100 more yards but Calvin makes up for it with his 2 more TDs. They have a similar drop rate (11% for Calvin vs slightly better 9% Boldin), both aren't great. More importantly, Boldin has a superior Yards Per Route Run at 2.30 (#9) vs Calvin's 1.77 (#30). With virtually identical targets, Boldin is clearly earning more yards on his routes but Calvin makes up for it with TDs. Both have good defenses, so that won't matter. Based on these metrics (and not including the penalties + blocking Boldin has hurt his team with but not relevant to fantasy), Boldin has performed almost as well Megatron. Of course Megatron has more upside though.

Megatron 8, Boldin 7.

^
if anyone needed proof that PFF doesn't automatically make you a genius, nor does typing large paragraphs