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Is this real? 30 year fixed mortgage rate went up 30% today!

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No Lifer
This is my guilty pleasure, please don't deny me it, but look at this

While the stock market got hit fairly hard today apparently bond prices went down, too. This real-time chart shows a terribly huge jump in mortgage prices today. Denninger of course is saying it's time to grease the 10 gauge and barricade the doors, but how meaningful is this, really?
 
Originally posted by: GTKeeper
Yep, the beginning of a bond market dislocation. Market goes down and the bonds with it.

Lack of liquidity.
Click to expand...
So is this a deflationary or inflationary situation? I suppose there are conflicting influences from both of those polarities.

 
Uh, is this legit? I'm fucking buying a house in the next week or two and haven't locked in a rate yet, mainly due to my mortgage lady telling me to wait...
 
Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Uh, is this legit? I'm fucking buying a house in the next week or two and haven't locked in a rate yet, mainly due to my mortgage lady telling me to wait...
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You could very well have gotten the shaft on this one.

I have 72 loans in my pipe and this is going to put about 20% on hold.
 
Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Uh, is this legit? I'm fucking buying a house in the next week or two and haven't locked in a rate yet, mainly due to my mortgage lady telling me to wait...
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Honestly, even at 6-7%, we're still talking about very low mortgage rates historically speaking. Anybody who was serious about buying a home shouldn't change plans just because of a 1% increase. Your PA should be written such that you can get out of it if you can't get a loan at or below X.XX%, but if your budget was that tight you were probably trying to buy too much house anyway.
 
Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Uhm, care to explain further OCguy?
Click to expand...

Well the low-rate loans that arent locked are all approved at around 4.375%-4.875%. Now the lowest rate at my best investor is 5.375%. It is going to be hard for the Loan Officers to sell them a higher rate after they were expecting something in the 4s.

Having a "4" as the first number in your interest rate is a big mental trigger for borrowers.
 
Well, what are the odds this is just a weird spike and it will float back down over the next few days? As someone who doesn't know much about this industry, I am mainly going off of the advice of others. If I weren't listening to their advice I would have locked yesterday. I'm fucking kicking myself now (and freaking out a bit, as its just a waste of damn money now) but, now the question begs, do I consider locking now, at the risk of it going up even higher, or is this one of those weird swings that you see in the stock market sometimes and it will float back down over the next few days?
 
Originally posted by: OCguy
Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Uhm, care to explain further OCguy?
Click to expand...

Well the low-rate loans that arent locked are all approved at around 4.375%-4.875%. Now the lowest rate at my best investor is 5.375%. It is going to be hard for the Loan Officers to sell them a higher rate after they were expecting something in the 4s.

Having a "4" as the first number in your interest rate is a big mental trigger for borrowers.
Click to expand...
So this really happened and is indeed real? Is such a one day spike of mortgages unprecedented? I've only been paying attention for a few years (somewhat), but cannot imagine they've ever spiked this much in a day.

 
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: OCguy
Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Uhm, care to explain further OCguy?
Click to expand...

Well the low-rate loans that arent locked are all approved at around 4.375%-4.875%. Now the lowest rate at my best investor is 5.375%. It is going to be hard for the Loan Officers to sell them a higher rate after they were expecting something in the 4s.

Having a "4" as the first number in your interest rate is a big mental trigger for borrowers.
Click to expand...
So this really happened and is indeed real? Is such a one day spike of mortgages unprecedented? I've only been paying attention for a few years (somewhat), but cannot imagine they've ever spiked this much in a day.
Click to expand...

Ah man, having you say that just makes me feel even worse. Talk about bad fucking luck... let me quote my mortgage lady from yesterday "You've still got a few days to gamble with the rates, I'd like to get you below or at 5. Besides, interest rates aren't going to jump 'x' amount in a few days anyway".

Fucking bitch.
 
Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Well, what are the odds this is just a weird spike and it will float back down over the next few days? As someone who doesn't know much about this industry, I am mainly going off of the advice of others. If I weren't listening to their advice I would have locked yesterday. I'm fucking kicking myself now (and freaking out a bit, as its just a waste of damn money now) but, now the question begs, do I consider locking now, at the risk of it going up even higher, or is this one of those weird swings that you see in the stock market sometimes and it will float back down over the next few days?
Click to expand...
If it's real I presume it will directly and quickly smack down housing prices because if you, for example, had X budgeted per month and don't want to go higher, to budget X with a higher mortgage rate, you can now only pay such and such. I would love to hear more, though.
 
Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Originally posted by: Skoorb
Originally posted by: OCguy
Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Uhm, care to explain further OCguy?
Click to expand...

Well the low-rate loans that arent locked are all approved at around 4.375%-4.875%. Now the lowest rate at my best investor is 5.375%. It is going to be hard for the Loan Officers to sell them a higher rate after they were expecting something in the 4s.

Having a "4" as the first number in your interest rate is a big mental trigger for borrowers.
Click to expand...
So this really happened and is indeed real? Is such a one day spike of mortgages unprecedented? I've only been paying attention for a few years (somewhat), but cannot imagine they've ever spiked this much in a day.
Click to expand...

Ah man, having you say that just makes me feel even worse. Talk about bad fucking luck... let me quote my mortgage lady from yesterday "You've still got a few days to gamble with the rates, I'd like to get you below or at 5. Besides, interest rates aren't going to jump 'x' amount in a few days anyway".

Fucking bitch.
Click to expand...
I would wait to hear more, this may be that we really don't have a clue what's going on, which is why I want people who have a clue to opine in. Maybe like you said it's just some anomaly and is meaningless.

I wonder what will happen to prime rate. My HELOC is pegged to that.

 
Originally posted by: Skoorb
This is my guilty pleasure, please don't deny me it, but look at this

While the stock market got hit fairly hard today apparently bond prices went down, too. This real-time chart shows a terribly huge jump in mortgage prices today. Denninger of course is saying it's time to grease the 10 gauge and barricade the doors, but how meaningful is this, really?
Click to expand...

30% does mean a 4.5% rate is now up to 5.7% now?
 
Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Well, what are the odds this is just a weird spike and it will float back down over the next few days? As someone who doesn't know much about this industry, I am mainly going off of the advice of others. If I weren't listening to their advice I would have locked yesterday. I'm fucking kicking myself now (and freaking out a bit, as its just a waste of damn money now) but, now the question begs, do I consider locking now, at the risk of it going up even higher, or is this one of those weird swings that you see in the stock market sometimes and it will float back down over the next few days?
Click to expand...

I don't think we can know the answer to that until we find out what caused this (unusually) steep increase. I see the Fed Funds rate etc didn't change. In fact, last thing I heard was only a few days ago and the economic outlook was down-graded. That doesn't usually cause rates to raise like an upturn with expected fed rate increased likely coming. Maybe it's a risk element because of the worsening forecast?

There are others who know more than I, perhaps they'll come along soon and post.

BTW: I'm a bit angry too (at myself). I've been thinking of refinancing my commercial building (presently at 7%) but with this increase it clearly looks like it's not worth it (I don't even need to run any numbers)

Fern
 
Originally posted by: WHAMPOM
Originally posted by: Skoorb
This is my guilty pleasure, please don't deny me it, but look at this

While the stock market got hit fairly hard today apparently bond prices went down, too. This real-time chart shows a terribly huge jump in mortgage prices today. Denninger of course is saying it's time to grease the 10 gauge and barricade the doors, but how meaningful is this, really?
Click to expand...

30% does mean a 4.5% rate is now up to 5.7% now?
Click to expand...
It would, although 15 year fixed was 4.5 yesterday and went up only 24%, so it would be 5.6 now.

 
Originally posted by: Cuda1447
Well, what are the odds this is just a weird spike and it will float back down over the next few days? As someone who doesn't know much about this industry, I am mainly going off of the advice of others. If I weren't listening to their advice I would have locked yesterday. I'm fucking kicking myself now (and freaking out a bit, as its just a waste of damn money now) but, now the question begs, do I consider locking now, at the risk of it going up even higher, or is this one of those weird swings that you see in the stock market sometimes and it will float back down over the next few days?
Click to expand...

I am really hoping this is the case.
 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...ticker1=MTGEFNCL%3AIND

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

i've been following that guy's rantings
This chart is not signaling economic recovery when on the same day the TNX jumps by 5% the market declines by 100 DOW points.

Guys, this is the start of the bond market dislocation that I have written about for the last two years. It may stop or it may accelerate, but this much is certain - even if it stops here the dream of a 4% mortgage that Bernanke has hawked as the "key" to housing stabilization is not going to happen.

When we got down into the mid 4s I told people close to me to either lock or refinance and do it now. Some did, some were holding out for that 4% number.

This will translate into corporate funding costs and when it does you're going to see a staggering impact on Corporate America, triggering another monstrous wave of bankruptcies.

THE GOVERNMENT MUST STOP THE STUPIDITY NOW; WE ARE HEADED FOR A NEAR-EXACT REPEAT OF THE 1930s WHEN FUNDING ESSENTIALLY DISAPPEARS.

BERNANKE'S TAMPERING HAS DONE NOTHING BUT MAKE THE PROBLEM WORSE!

Disclosure: Getting short everything and soon will be shorter than a mosquito if the government keeps this crap up.
Click to expand...

so to him, it sounds like the 4% rate is going bye bye
 
Originally posted by: da loser
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...ticker1=MTGEFNCL%3AIND

http://market-ticker.denninger.net/

i've been following that guy's rantings
This chart is not signaling economic recovery when on the same day the TNX jumps by 5% the market declines by 100 DOW points.

Guys, this is the start of the bond market dislocation that I have written about for the last two years. It may stop or it may accelerate, but this much is certain - even if it stops here the dream of a 4% mortgage that Bernanke has hawked as the "key" to housing stabilization is not going to happen.

When we got down into the mid 4s I told people close to me to either lock or refinance and do it now. Some did, some were holding out for that 4% number.

This will translate into corporate funding costs and when it does you're going to see a staggering impact on Corporate America, triggering another monstrous wave of bankruptcies.

THE GOVERNMENT MUST STOP THE STUPIDITY NOW; WE ARE HEADED FOR A NEAR-EXACT REPEAT OF THE 1930s WHEN FUNDING ESSENTIALLY DISAPPEARS.

BERNANKE'S TAMPERING HAS DONE NOTHING BUT MAKE THE PROBLEM WORSE!

Disclosure: Getting short everything and soon will be shorter than a mosquito if the government keeps this crap up.
Click to expand...

so to him, it sounds like the 4% rate is going bye bye
Click to expand...
If so, it couldn't last forever. I was unable to refi at the lower rates (I think mine is 6.375) because I lacked the equity/downpayment and hadn't a fannie or freddie loan, so I was basically stuck where I was.

 
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