Is the economy getting better?

[charliebrown]

The talking heads on TV say things are picking up... anyone see it happening?

I've got a small printing business in LA and business has been terrible for 2 months and its still terrible. Vendors tell me everyone's hurting. Just wondering how everyone else is doing??

 

[Ameesh]

i think it is.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Seems to me that it has steadily been picking up for a while. The company I work for has never been as busy as we have this summer. Corporations are still spending $$ because we keep working.(I work for an Electical Engineering firm who mainly do process control in the seed and food industry)

Now if you wish to look at the overall picture....
WashPost
Five of the 10 components of the leading index rose in July
Growth Picking Up

Just a few.

CkG

 

[zephyrprime]

Five of the 10 components of the leading index rose in July

That's not very impresseive because it means that 5 of 10 indicators sank in July. But I think the economy is improving too. Various industries have been predicting improved conditions in the next few quarters. For example, look at the intel annoucement today.

 

[dmcowen674]

Not here, just lost another plant here in our County. We seem to be on a rate of losing one a month.

 

[charrison]

It does appear the economy is getting better.

 

[LunarRay]

Originally posted by: charliebrown
The talking heads on TV say things are picking up... anyone see it happening?

I've got a small printing business in LA and business has been terrible for 2 months and its still terrible. Vendors tell me everyone's hurting. Just wondering how everyone else is doing??

Your clients suggest it is not. But, their markets may not have responded to what ever positive economic conditions exist or not yet responded. Look at who your clients are and where they do business and then see what's going on in that or those segment (s).
In general, there seems to be an uptick but, that may not be sustained or may be the result of seasonality or the trickle of our recent economic stimuli which I don't think was enough or well directed.

 

[sandorski]

Time will tell.

 

[BOBDN]

The improvement is technical. Still a jobless recovery here.

But with the looming budget deficits it's too soon to say we're out of the woods.

The economy will continue to appear to improve until the time comes to pay the piper.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: BOBDN
The improvement is technical. Still a jobless recovery here.

But with the looming budget deficits it's too soon to say we're out of the woods.

The economy will continue to appear to improve until the time comes to pay the piper.

Employment is a trailing factor in a recovery. The last 4 weeks new unemployment claims have been below 400k, which points toward job growth and not job loss. The leading factors seem to be doing pretty good right now.

Greenspan said we need about 3.0-3.5% growth in gdp to really start bringing unemployment down.

 

[LunarRay]

Bureau of Labor Statistics

The civilian labor force decreased by 556,000 in July to 146.5 million.
This decline follows an increase of a similar magnitude in June. The labor
force participation rate fell to 66.2 percent. This matches the recent low
for the series, previously reached in March. In July, total employment was
down slightly to 137.5 million, and the employment-population ratio declined
to 62.1 percent. (See table A-1.)

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

In July, about 1.6 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were
marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier.
These individuals wanted and were available to work and had looked for a
job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed,
however, because they did not actively search for work in the 4 weeks
preceding the survey. Of the 1.6 million, 470,000 were discouraged workers
who were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed
no jobs were available for them. The other 1.1 million marginally attached
had not searched for work for reasons such as child-care or transportation
problems. (See table A-13.)



Link

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: LunarRay
Bureau of Labor Statistics

The civilian labor force decreased by 556,000 in July to 146.5 million.
This decline follows an increase of a similar magnitude in June. The labor
force participation rate fell to 66.2 percent. This matches the recent low
for the series, previously reached in March. In July, total employment was
down slightly to 137.5 million, and the employment-population ratio declined
to 62.1 percent. (See table A-1.)

Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)

In July, about 1.6 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were
marginally attached to the labor force, little changed from a year earlier.
These individuals wanted and were available to work and had looked for a
job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed,
however, because they did not actively search for work in the 4 weeks
preceding the survey. Of the 1.6 million, 470,000 were discouraged workers
who were not currently looking for work specifically because they believed
no jobs were available for them. The other 1.1 million marginally attached
had not searched for work for reasons such as child-care or transportation
problems. (See table A-13.)



Link

based onthe weekly reports for new unemployment claims, I am expecting august to have a better outlook.

 

[LunarRay]

Other info that may be of interest

EXTENDED MASS LAYOFFS IN THE SECOND QUARTER OF 2003


In the second quarter of 2003, 1,894 mass layoff actions were taken by
employers that resulted in the separation of 372,426 workers from their
jobs for at least 31 days, according to preliminary figures released by
the U.S. Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics. Both the total
number of layoff events and the number of separations were lower than in
April-June 2002 and were the lowest for a second quarter since 2000. (See
table A.) The decline from second quarter 2002 was most notable in
professional and technical services, agriculture and forestry support
activities, and crop production.

Through the first half of 2003, the number of worker separations, at
705,686, and the number of layoff events, at 3,594, were lower than the
same period a year ago. Additional information on the first half of 2003
is provided in the review of 2003 section, beginning on page 6.

link

 

[charliebrown]

I know about the "leading indicators" etc..

But how is your job going? Are you employed? Is your job secure? Is there increasing business where you're at?

Maybe its just CA in the tank because of the workers comp mess and deficit etc, but even the UPS guy told me he is much slower than "normal" - he used to have to cram his truck full with pickups. Now he goes in with the shelves barely full and the center aisle completely empty....

 

[LunarRay]

Charrison said:
based onthe weekly reports for new unemployment claims, I am expecting august to have a better outlook.
*******

I'm not trying to refute your claim. I'm trying to post data for the thread starter and any one else.
The Aug. prelims are positive but, I think our workforce has been trimmed about as much as possible and I'd hope new claims didn't rise again.. if they do... well. I call for a 500b tax relief package directed to get jobs moving... (one of those buy American slogans)

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: charliebrown
I know about the "leading indicators" etc..

But how is your job going? Are you employed? Is your job secure? Is there increasing business where you're at?

Maybe its just CA in the tank because of the workers comp mess and deficit etc, but even the UPS guy told me he is much slower than "normal" - he used to have to cram his truck full with pickups. Now he goes in with the shelves barely full and the center aisle completely empty....

We are looking at getting a couple more developers at our office. Not sure when, but in the near future. My job is secure and I got a decent raise this year.

California is a mess right now. Companies are leaving california for friendlier places, while the south california is being over run will illegals working for a low wage and a net drain on the system.

 

[LunarRay]

Originally posted by: charliebrown
I know about the "leading indicators" etc..

But how is your job going? Are you employed? Is your job secure? Is there increasing business where you're at?

Maybe its just CA in the tank because of the workers comp mess and deficit etc, but even the UPS guy told me he is much slower than "normal" - he used to have to cram his truck full with pickups. Now he goes in with the shelves barely full and the center aisle completely empty....

The company that I function for (Part time) is in San Diego. My job is secure, I'm the CFO and Controller so I'll be the last of the folks to go. Engineering/Construction business is declining each month but, that means folks are working 40 hrs instead of 50 per week. Our material purchases declined consistently with this. Same for our subcontractors. Folks I talk to say the same as I. Given everyone has over cut workforce. The Mfg folks are at 1 shift vs 2. so there is room for growth as demand increases. I don't teach anymore so I don't have a perspective from the academic world or students.

I edit to say: Mfg. is reluctant to go with added shifts because of the added overhead cost being amortized over a slight increase. They will go with one shift on overtime until they are forced to bite the bullet and open the added shift.

 

[ReiAyanami]

Maybe Gray Davis will extend unemployment benefits, as he is about to lose his job...

 

[LunarRay]

No.. Don't extend benefits.. use the funds to put em to work... making stuff and buying stuff cuz now they have a job... psychologically it is a big step and makes folks happy and happy folks spend..

 

[dmcowen674]

Bush Defends Economic Plan on Wash. Trip

"President Bush defended his economic plan Friday in a state with a high jobless rate, saying tax cuts were kicking in and the deficit will shrink if Congress keeps a check on spending."

He's blaming Congress???

"The problem is that wealthy people who are investing money are taking it and sending it offshore and investing in plants that harm our local industries," Berendt said. "Bush is not doing anything to stop this hemorrhaging of jobs."

This is not something the President has direct control over however, what does this guy expect the President to do to stop CEO's from slicing the wrists of those that feed them?

 

[Queasy]

I work for one of the big three credit agencies and I can tell you that things are picking up. Because we have incentive bonuses that are based on company performance, department performance, and personal performance we are kept updated every quarter and how the company is doing with its projections. Right now, we are running more transactions than ever and have greatly exceeded performance goals for the first half of the year.

Another indicator to me, alot of my former co-workers and neighbors that were laid off now have jobs.

 

[LunarRay]

N/M

 

[Queasy]

Originally posted by: LunarRay
I should add it is an old article but the point is debt is on the rise and that could be to just move debt or refi debt.. not always an economic boom..

The mortgage side of my company's business was booming. That's because of all the new home purchases and refis. That is slowing down now as interest rates creep back up but other parts of the business are picking up.

Note that credit history is pulled on more than just credit card, mortgage, and car loan requests. For example, there is also business credit history. When transactions pick up for that side of things that generally means that companies are looking to increase spending.

 

[LunarRay]

Originally posted by: Queasy

Originally posted by: LunarRay
I should add it is an old article but the point is debt is on the rise and that could be to just move debt or refi debt.. not always an economic boom..

The mortgage side of my company's business was booming. That's because of all the new home purchases and refis. That is slowing down now as interest rates creep back up but other parts of the business are picking up.

Note that credit history is pulled on more than just credit card, mortgage, and car loan requests. For example, there is also business credit history. When transactions pick up for that side of things that generally means that companies are looking to increase spending.

Mortgage rates just ticked down so you'll have a bit more business shortly..
Yeah, that's true
My post sought to ID the increase in debt for reasons other than economic good times but it was not exactly what I wanted to show so I dumped it..

 

[burnedout]

Originally posted by: LunarRay

Originally posted by: charliebrown
I know about the "leading indicators" etc..

But how is your job going? Are you employed? Is your job secure? Is there increasing business where you're at?

Maybe its just CA in the tank because of the workers comp mess and deficit etc, but even the UPS guy told me he is much slower than "normal" - he used to have to cram his truck full with pickups. Now he goes in with the shelves barely full and the center aisle completely empty....

The company that I function for (Part time) is in San Diego. My job is secure, I'm the CFO and Controller so I'll be the last of the folks to go. Engineering/Construction business is declining each month but, that means folks are working 40 hrs instead of 50 per week. Our material purchases declined consistently with this. Same for our subcontractors. Folks I talk to say the same as I. Given everyone has over cut workforce. The Mfg folks are at 1 shift vs 2. so there is room for growth as demand increases. I don't teach anymore so I don't have a perspective from the academic world or students.

If you don't mind my asking but what subject(s) did you teach earlier? No, not a bait or anything. Just curious, that's all.