Is the economy getting better?

[LunarRay]

Originally posted by: burnedout

Originally posted by: LunarRay

Originally posted by: charliebrown
I know about the "leading indicators" etc..

But how is your job going? Are you employed? Is your job secure? Is there increasing business where you're at?

Maybe its just CA in the tank because of the workers comp mess and deficit etc, but even the UPS guy told me he is much slower than "normal" - he used to have to cram his truck full with pickups. Now he goes in with the shelves barely full and the center aisle completely empty....

The company that I function for (Part time) is in San Diego. My job is secure, I'm the CFO and Controller so I'll be the last of the folks to go. Engineering/Construction business is declining each month but, that means folks are working 40 hrs instead of 50 per week. Our material purchases declined consistently with this. Same for our subcontractors. Folks I talk to say the same as I. Given everyone has over cut workforce. The Mfg folks are at 1 shift vs 2. so there is room for growth as demand increases. I don't teach anymore so I don't have a perspective from the academic world or students.

If you don't mind my asking but what subject(s) did you teach earlier? No, not a bait or anything. Just curious, that's all.

Managerial Cost Accounting and years ago Undergrad Accounting I and II and Finance. I taught Commerce in Ireland.. which is sorta Accounting and Economics and Finance in one..

 

[burnedout]

Originally posted by: LunarRay

Managerial Cost Accounting and years ago Undergrad Accounting I and II and Finance. I taught Commerce in Ireland.. which is sorta Accounting and Economics and Finance in one..

Wow. That is really awesome.

 

[LunarRay]

Originally posted by: burnedout

Originally posted by: LunarRay

Managerial Cost Accounting and years ago Undergrad Accounting I and II and Finance. I taught Commerce in Ireland.. which is sorta Accounting and Economics and Finance in one..

Wow. That is really awesome.

You're the first person in this forum who thought Accounting or teaching Accounting is awesome.
Teaching one subject was actually fun and being "In the Business" I thought brought a non-academic reality to the floor. But, to be honest, you get free tuition and I wanted to persue another field (psychology) for interest purposes only and I couldn't afford to pay for it.. So.. there it is..

 

[Moonbeam]

Second person. You know you impress the hell out of me. Mom thinks you're real cool too. And I wouldn't want to disappoint UQ if he's around somewhere.

 

[HappyPuppy]

Yes, the economy is getting better. I am constantly turning down OT that my employer tries to force on me. This sucks. I would like to go back to the good old days when I just sat at home and got paid. NO! Now they want me to actually work. Life Sux.

 

[LunarRay]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Second person. You know you impress the hell out of me. Mom thinks you're real cool too. And I wouldn't want to disappoint UQ if he's around somewhere.

But, I'm lazier... Dr. Moonbeam, Ph.D. takes much more research than lazy DBA me... Mom always said I'd find a way outta anything while you'd plod through it..

 

[LunarRay]

Originally posted by: HappyPuppy
Yes, the economy is getting better. I am constantly turning down OT that my employer tries to force on me. This sucks. I would like to go back to the good old days when I just sat at home and got paid. NO! Now they want me to actually work. Life Sux.

What industry are you in? If mfg. is there capacity constraints or how many shifts?

 

[burnedout]

Originally posted by: LunarRay

Originally posted by: burnedout

Originally posted by: LunarRay

Managerial Cost Accounting and years ago Undergrad Accounting I and II and Finance. I taught Commerce in Ireland.. which is sorta Accounting and Economics and Finance in one..

Wow. That is really awesome.

You're the first person in this forum who thought Accounting or teaching Accounting is awesome.
Teaching one subject was actually fun and being "In the Business" I thought brought a non-academic reality to the floor. But, to be honest, you get free tuition and I wanted to persue another field (psychology) for interest purposes only and I couldn't afford to pay for it.. So.. there it is..

Well, to me, working in that field and holding a related collegiate teaching position should be considered quite admirable. Personally, from my limited exposure (1 semester college course), I found accountancy rather tedious.

 

[LunarRay]

Originally posted by: burnedout

Originally posted by: LunarRay

Originally posted by: burnedout

Originally posted by: LunarRay

Managerial Cost Accounting and years ago Undergrad Accounting I and II and Finance. I taught Commerce in Ireland.. which is sorta Accounting and Economics and Finance in one..

Wow. That is really awesome.

You're the first person in this forum who thought Accounting or teaching Accounting is awesome.
Teaching one subject was actually fun and being "In the Business" I thought brought a non-academic reality to the floor. But, to be honest, you get free tuition and I wanted to persue another field (psychology) for interest purposes only and I couldn't afford to pay for it.. So.. there it is..

Well, to me, working in that field and holding a related collegiate teaching position should be considered quite admirable. Personally, from my limited exposure (1 semester college course), I found accountancy rather tedious.

I only work part time anymore but, when I was in Manufacturing and teaching Mangerial Cost Accounting it was only 9 class hours a week so not a biggy.. and I never had more than 16 class hours ever... Accounting is tedious but, not in the upper levels where Finance drives and Accounting is just history. I actually, enjoy the dirty work now a days. Doing the books on Quick Books and like that..

Economists and their models and theories and predictions is to me the tedious task. All sorts of numbers and calculus resulting in a lot of ought to predictions that are based on a history that is always in some way different than what they are living in. The best factor that is hardly ever considered is the psychology of the population. Given two identical economic stimuli with two different mind sets will result in very different results.. It amazes me.

 

[OS]

Originally posted by: charrison


We are looking at getting a couple more developers at our office. Not sure when, but in the near future. My job is secure and I got a decent raise this year.

California is a mess right now. Companies are leaving california for friendlier places, while the south california is being over run will illegals working for a low wage and a net drain on the system.

So what's a good state to go to for a recent EE grad?

BTW, if your place is adding software guys, I know some software.

 

[IGBT]

Sooner or later things break and wear out..lets hope the jobs return and wages don't slide any lower..

 

[Moonbeam]

Under Bush I think it's gotten better for the top 1%. I don't understand it either. Here you have the very best of our nation, people driven by money and success, and not only driven to be at the top, but actually with the ability to be at the top, and what do we do, reward them. Can you imagine that. Here you have these trained circus seals that love to perform for a crowd and you fill them full of fish so then can nap. Not in my world you don't. You bleed them so they stay lean and mean. You tax their asses to the sky. You piss them off by milking them like cows. Only by milking do they keep giving milk. People are incredibly blind. Keep our nation fit. Turn up the speed on the tread mill of life. Up, Way up the progressive tax. It's called progressive because it equals progress. 99% at the top. The very best and very brightest love the challenge. They will lead the way.

 

[XZeroII]

Originally posted by: BOBDN

But with the looming budget deficits it's too soon to say we're out of the woods.

The economy will continue to appear to improve until the time comes to pay the piper.

CONGRATS!!! You win first prize for the most ignorant statement posted in this thread so far! Your prize is a chance to do some research on the subject and get a clue.

 

[XZeroII]

Originally posted by: Moonbeam
Under Bush I think it's gotten better for the top 1%. I don't understand it either. Here you have the very best of our nation, people driven by money and success, and not only driven to be at the top, but actually with the ability to be at the top, and what do we do, reward them. Can you imagine that. Here you have these trained circus seals that love to perform for a crowd and you fill them full of fish so then can nap. Not in my world you don't. You bleed them so they stay lean and mean. You tax their asses to the sky. You piss them off by milking them like cows. Only by milking do they keep giving milk. People are incredibly blind. Keep our nation fit. Turn up the speed on the tread mill of life. Up, Way up the progressive tax. It's called progressive because it equals progress. 99% at the top. The very best and very brightest love the challenge. They will lead the way.

It always gets better for the top 1%. Even during a huge depression the top 1% are still chugging away. Our gov't has used pretty much all the economic tools it has available to get the economy going (Lower taxes, increase gov't spending, lower interest rates, etc...). I don't see how they are trying to screw the little people.

 

[UnemployedMay2001]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: BOBDN
Employment is a trailing factor in a recovery. The last 4 weeks new unemployment claims have been below 400k, which points toward job growth and not job loss.

This is the most misleading figure ever. I wish they had a factor that represented the people who have already exhausted their unemployment benefits so people could get a real indication as to just how many people in this country are out of work. We are the forgotten. Once a person exhausts those benefits, they are no longer figured into the "jobless" number. It is assumed that when your 26 weeks are up, a new job magically appears and you are no longer figured in.

Drops in new claims mean little when so many are still not working. Here is SE Michigan we have been and continue to hurt. In a geographic area dominated by manufacturing and the auto industry, I can attest for sure that our regional economy is doing quite poorly. Those that I know who ARE still working, are in constant fear that next week they will be laid off or worse, let go.

So to answer the original question, No, I don't see it happening here at all.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: UnemployedMay2001

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: BOBDN
Employment is a trailing factor in a recovery. The last 4 weeks new unemployment claims have been below 400k, which points toward job growth and not job loss.

This is the most misleading figure ever. I wish they had a factor that represented the people who have already exhausted their unemployment benefits so people could get a real indication as to just how many people in this country are out of work. We are the forgotten. Once a person exhausts those benefits, they are no longer figured into the "jobless" number. It is assumed that when your 26 weeks are up, a new job magically appears and you are no longer figured in.

Drops in new claims mean little when so many are still not working. Here is SE Michigan we have been and continue to hurt. In a geographic area dominated by manufacturing and the auto industry, I can attest for sure that our regional economy is doing quite poorly. Those that I know who ARE still working, are in constant fear that next week they will be laid off or worse, let go.

So to answer the original question, No, I don't see it happening here at all.

That is so true M2001. You have me by a month, unemployed since July 2001. There is no reason other than fear of public reation and the truth of why they don't publish the figure of those that exhausted unemployment benefits.

Everytime I see the Talking Media Heads try to put a positive spin on the Economy more reality hits right here at home with mass layoffs announced in the local paper and seeing more and more buildings go empty and well as more and more Houses for sale and houses that have been foreclosed. Just around the corner from me there is a 300 home subdivision with 50% of the homes foreclosed and empty! It's a horrible sight of seeing the grass over 6 feet high everywhere, Newspapers and Ad papers piled up at the driveway aprons, flyers and junk overflowing the mailboxes.

It's starting to look like an all out Depression here folks.

 

[rchiu]

Is the economy better? well, employment rate have been stable but have not picked up significantly. The GDP is skewed by defense/military spending this quarter. Stock price picked up. Consumer confidence index rebounded in August. Leading economics indicator increased 0.4% in July.

The word on the street is, the economy is stablized for now and there are many signs of recovery. The risk of another economy down turn is much less than 6 month ago. In other word, the economy is looking up and people are expecting a recovery. We are probably at the early stage of the economy recovery, but there are still many factors that can help or harm this recovery.

That being said, unemployment could still be high even if the economy recovers. Companies are trying to accomplish more with less people, they are outsourcing many position overseas, not just the manufacturing and low level jobs. The economy will recover, but the whole landscape will change. Don't expect life just return to where it was just because economy recovers.

 

[charliebrown]

That is so true M2001. You have me by a month, unemployed since July 2001. There is no reason other than fear of public reation and the truth of why they don't publish the figure of those that exhausted unemployment benefits.

Everytime I see the Talking Media Heads try to put a positive spin on the Economy more reality hits right here at home with mass layoffs announced in the local paper and seeing more and more buildings go empty and well as more and more Houses for sale and houses that have been foreclosed. Just around the corner from me there is a 300 home subdivision with 50% of the homes foreclosed and empty! It's a horrible sight of seeing the grass over 6 feet high everywhere, Newspapers and Ad papers piled up at the driveway aprons, flyers and junk overflowing the mailboxes.

It's starting to look like an all out Depression here folks.

Where are you located, dmcowen?

 

[LunarRay]

The last six or seven posts paints a dismal picture.

UnemployedMay2001 and DM are you guys not able to find any thing at all? Or just in your expertise?

Xzero II, what was so ignorant about Bob's statement? Seems plausible that there is a time to pay the piper if the interest rates go up - as an improving economy ought to cause as a result of the natural dynamics and all. When this happens the Debt Service will eat into the increased revenue on a much larger base of debt than before. But, the alternative was devastation, I guess.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: LunarRay
The last six or seven posts paints a dismal picture.

Exactly why things have stayed this way - Negative thinking. All people have seen was NEGATIVE NEGATIVE NEGATIVE on the news from Here and around the world. Do I need to point out that the recession was considered over in 2001 - almost 2 years ago? Why people still cling to the negative - I don't know.

UnemployedMay2001 and DM are you guys not able to find any thing at all? Or just in your expertise?

Good question. It is my contention that people have too narrow of a search pattern. Now again - there are other life factors that play into job situations and that truly is a travesty. Heck - would someone please go get an EE degree by next week so we can hire them?

Xzero II, what was so ignorant about Bob's statement? Seems plausible that there is a time to pay the piper if the interest rates go up - as an improving economy ought to cause as a result of the natural dynamics and all. When this happens the Debt Service will eat into the increased revenue on a much larger base of debt than before. But, the alternative was devastation, I guess.

I think we'll be just fine once people realize that it isn't all doom and gloom and start reinvesting money in America. People need to get over the idea that they can make a quick score financially and get back to the thing that made America the Economic superpower it is today - Hard work and ingenuity. We as citizens need to get back to the reality that WE are responsible for ourselves and economic lively hood and quit looking for the Federal gov't to cure our every ill. As the man who tried to stop a certain civil rights march in DC once said "ask not what your country can do for you--ask what you can do for your country" - and it should still hold true today. People seem to have forgotten about what the Federal Gov't is for and what it's role in everyday life was supposed to be - today, it's just out of control as it has been for many many years.

CkG

 

[LunarRay]

Good grief the world is comming to an end... I agree CADDY.

Well, I'd add that the Federal Government ought not be involved at all and it is all over the place. It should be the States that deal with the issues of people... let the Fed folks tend to war and treaties and making coins and stuff. I'm for State Sovereignty..

 

[Tripleshot]

I work in an unemployment office. I am a temporary employee under contract because the office is so overloaded with customers who are unemployed and in need of sercvices. What M2001 and DCM are saying is so true. No mechanism is in place to assess the true count of unemployed,and no mechanism to count the under-employed. Conditions in the work place have deterierated to the point of being shameful. Employeers treat those who still have jobs with higher workloads , simultaniesly with lower wages, no overtime, and higher costs for benifits such as medical insurance. These are facts people, not suppositon. Sadly, without funds to hire and empliment postive change,we are mired in this malaize because the outlook is so bleak, the government does not want you to know the real truth, lest you despair and give up, causing anarchy and driving up crime.

If you have a job, I hope you can keep it, because 100 unemployed with equal or better qualifications are waiting to take your place at a lower wage. That is a demographic trueism.

Without leadership in the government,without vision for growth and prosperity,without the will to make the neccesary changes to put people back to work, this will not change. You must vote in leadership that can govern,will govern, and will create motive for growth and prosperity. Tax cuts for the wealthy are a dismal failure---predicitable I might add. That is all this administration has to offer. Unltil and unless you see a marked turnaround in the economy, the current status quo will not be able to sustain itself. Costs of goods are rising, cost of government has skyrocketed,and paychecks are thining,along with the amount of workers in the workforce.

We have no one to blame but ourselves if we do not take the oppurtunity to vote in the next election and remove the obsticle to prosperity, the current administration. The choice is ours.

:brokenheart:

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: Tripleshot
I work in an unemployment office. I am a temporary employee under contract because the office is so overloaded with customers who are unemployed and in need of sercvices. What M2001 and DCM are saying is so true. No mechanism is in place to assess the true count of unemployed,and no mechanism to count the under-employed. Conditions in the work place have deterierated to the point of being shameful. Employeers treat those who still have jobs with higher workloads , simultaniesly with lower wages, no overtime, and higher costs for benifits such as medical insurance. These are facts people, not suppositon. Sadly, without funds to hire and empliment postive change,we are mired in this malaize because the outlook is so bleak, the government does not want you to know the real truth, lest you despair and give up, causing anarchy and driving up crime.

If you have a job, I hope you can keep it, because 100 unemployed with equal or better qualifications are waiting to take your place at a lower wage. That is a demographic trueism.

Without leadership in the government,without vision for growth and prosperity,without the will to make the neccesary changes to put people back to work, this will not change. You must vote in leadership that can govern,will govern, and will create motive for growth and prosperity. Tax cuts for the wealthy are a dismal failure---predicitable I might add. That is all this administration has to offer. Unltil and unless you see a marked turnaround in the economy, the current status quo will not be able to sustain itself. Costs of goods are rising, cost of government has skyrocketed,and paychecks are thining,along with the amount of workers in the workforce.

We have no one to blame but ourselves if we do not take the oppurtunity to vote in the next election and remove the obsticle to prosperity, the current administration. The choice is ours.

:brokenheart:

Keep singing that tune, my boy, it'll only lead to dismal failure for the left in 2004. I can understand your angst - but to say that the current administration is the obstacle to prosperity is just downright asinine. Are there things that you or I opine he could have done better? Sure. But to say that he is the cause of the current unemployment state is shortsighted to say the least.

As someone said in a different thread...Whatever helps you sleep at night. I choose a positive outlook - others...well....choose not to do the same.

CkG

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: UnemployedMay2001

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: BOBDN
Employment is a trailing factor in a recovery. The last 4 weeks new unemployment claims have been below 400k, which points toward job growth and not job loss.

This is the most misleading figure ever. I wish they had a factor that represented the people who have already exhausted their unemployment benefits so people could get a real indication as to just how many people in this country are out of work. We are the forgotten. Once a person exhausts those benefits, they are no longer figured into the "jobless" number. It is assumed that when your 26 weeks are up, a new job magically appears and you are no longer figured in.

Drops in new claims mean little when so many are still not working. Here is SE Michigan we have been and continue to hurt. In a geographic area dominated by manufacturing and the auto industry, I can attest for sure that our regional economy is doing quite poorly. Those that I know who ARE still working, are in constant fear that next week they will be laid off or worse, let go.

So to answer the original question, No, I don't see it happening here at all.

Yup, if the US used the same definition of Unemployment as Europe, I suspect the US numbers are very similar to Europe's. I was shocked back when the US rate was < 5%, there were still pleas for more jobs! How can that be, unless the Official rate is a useless number?

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: sandorski

Originally posted by: UnemployedMay2001

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: BOBDN
Employment is a trailing factor in a recovery. The last 4 weeks new unemployment claims have been below 400k, which points toward job growth and not job loss.

This is the most misleading figure ever. I wish they had a factor that represented the people who have already exhausted their unemployment benefits so people could get a real indication as to just how many people in this country are out of work. We are the forgotten. Once a person exhausts those benefits, they are no longer figured into the "jobless" number. It is assumed that when your 26 weeks are up, a new job magically appears and you are no longer figured in.

Drops in new claims mean little when so many are still not working. Here is SE Michigan we have been and continue to hurt. In a geographic area dominated by manufacturing and the auto industry, I can attest for sure that our regional economy is doing quite poorly. Those that I know who ARE still working, are in constant fear that next week they will be laid off or worse, let go.

So to answer the original question, No, I don't see it happening here at all.

Yup, if the US used the same definition of Unemployment as Europe, I suspect the US numbers are very similar to Europe's. I was shocked back when the US rate was < 5%, there were still pleas for more jobs! How can that be, unless the Official rate is a useless number?

I missed those pleas when the job rate was that low. Alot of my friends took a new job every 12-18 months because employeers were willing to pay whatever to get more people on staff.