Is the economy getting better?

[LunarRay]

Today's economy is based on debt creation. Folks cannot reach into the piggy bank and purchase something, they have to charge it on credit cards or incur some other debt vehicle. The folks who could lock in a lower mortgage interest rate and draw down on equity have paid down non home mortgage debt and used the balance to buy a few things. The lower monthly will filter into the economy over time. This amount is not a whole lot, though. Everyone one who doubts the economic revovery will not incur debt to purchase for fear of job loss and all that goes with that. This is the Psychology that Bush needs dealing with. Make the folks think all is rosy and it will become rosy. Allow them to think otherwise and no amount of stimuli will make the economy better. There is a ceiling, I think, of about another 200b in stimuli that ought to be pumped in. This should be directed from the bottom up.. absorbtion economics.. I view it like a store owner seeing a crowd at his lunch counter and runs out to buy more hot dogs... let business see the bucks in the hand of the consumer and he'll do back flips to try and get it.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Tripleshot
I work in an unemployment office. I am a temporary employee under contract because the office is so overloaded with customers who are unemployed and in need of sercvices. What M2001 and DCM are saying is so true. No mechanism is in place to assess the true count of unemployed,and no mechanism to count the under-employed. Conditions in the work place have deterierated to the point of being shameful. Employeers treat those who still have jobs with higher workloads , simultaniesly with lower wages, no overtime, and higher costs for benifits such as medical insurance. These are facts people, not suppositon. Sadly, without funds to hire and empliment postive change,we are mired in this malaize because the outlook is so bleak, the government does not want you to know the real truth, lest you despair and give up, causing anarchy and driving up crime.

If you have a job, I hope you can keep it, because 100 unemployed with equal or better qualifications are waiting to take your place at a lower wage. That is a demographic trueism.

Without leadership in the government,without vision for growth and prosperity,without the will to make the neccesary changes to put people back to work, this will not change. You must vote in leadership that can govern,will govern, and will create motive for growth and prosperity. Tax cuts for the wealthy are a dismal failure---predicitable I might add. That is all this administration has to offer. Unltil and unless you see a marked turnaround in the economy, the current status quo will not be able to sustain itself. Costs of goods are rising, cost of government has skyrocketed,and paychecks are thining,along with the amount of workers in the workforce.

We have no one to blame but ourselves if we do not take the oppurtunity to vote in the next election and remove the obsticle to prosperity, the current administration. The choice is ours.

:brokenheart:

Well written TS. In fact my wife and I are now battling over that exact principle. She has been successfully "snowed" by this old Reagan Era trickle down Economics "theory" the current Administration is trying again that is and will continue to clearly fail. It is just a theory and has never been proven to work. I'm sure it will stay a "theory" and never become fact.

This Trickle down to the rich is not Leadership, never was and never will be.

No offense taken as some have PM'd me, I can't PM back at the moment as my Forum subsciption ran out and over the PM limit. I don't mean to be negative, I am however only negative about lack of Leadership policy, lack of reporting on the real numbers which is clearly possible to show with existing available data.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: LunarRay
The last six or seven posts paints a dismal picture.

UnemployedMay2001 and DM are you guys not able to find any thing at all? Or just in your expertise?

Xzero II, what was so ignorant about Bob's statement? Seems plausible that there is a time to pay the piper if the interest rates go up - as an improving economy ought to cause as a result of the natural dynamics and all. When this happens the Debt Service will eat into the increased revenue on a much larger base of debt than before. But, the alternative was devastation, I guess.

The only jobs showing up in the regional papers for example is in the Medical field, so yes if I went to school for the next at least 2 years may be able to land a job as a Nurse as the current Nursing staff is having to work 72 hours shifts with small nap breaks on a cot in between. I know this is fact as I know at least 2 nurses here doing exactly that.

The Population is aging and will continue to do so (1940's 1950's Baby Boomers are not Babies any longer).

I said "may" be able to land a job because if too many people "shift" their certification to be able to fill these positions then there will be a glut of Nursing Staff and I can tell you for sure, pay will go down and other Employer abuses kick in just as what happens with any Industry that gets overstaffed such as the IT Industry.

It's all so predictable it's not funny.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: LunarRay
Good grief the world is comming to an end... I agree CADDY.

Well, I'd add that the Federal Government ought not be involved at all and it is all over the place. It should be the States that deal with the issues of people... let the Fed folks tend to war and treaties and making coins and stuff. I'm for State Sovereignty..

I agree on the State Sovereignty, however Leadership & Policy starts at the top. That is one "trickle" down that does work.
In fact here is the difference. That trickle down is just the "attitude" of humans while when it comes to an actual physical tangible thing of the humans having to handle or part with "money", that isn't going to happen. The diiference is clear.

 

[UnemployedMay2001]

Originally posted by: LunarRay
The last six or seven posts paints a dismal picture.

UnemployedMay2001 and DM are you guys not able to find any thing at all? Or just in your expertise?

In my field of expertise. I was the Creative Director for a large web development company. I was gainfully employed in the IT sector from 1995 - 2001 making more and more money every year. As soon as there was even a *hint* that George W. was going to win the election back in late 2000, we could see slowly but surely our company's stock go down day by day until in May of 2001, when the stock that was at $180 a share down to $4. Came in Monday and was told that the entire company, 450 employees strong were all getting let go because the company was closing it's doors.

So for the last 2 1/2 years I have had to wear many hats while trying to keep my family of 5 solvent. I have resorted to designing websites for small businesses in the Detroit area. If I sell one $2500 website a month I can pay the bills and make sure the kids have food and the bare extra necessities like school clothes, supplies, new shoes, etc. Forget about Health Care as I can not even come close to having enough money to pay those lofty fees.

My other "skill" to fall back on is that I was a mechanical engineer back in the early 90's but even with skills in that area and having knowledge of different CAD softwares does not make me any more employable in my region. When Ford, GM, and Chrysler are hurting, the entire Michigan economy follows suit as they in so many ways, support many of the little industries in our area.

Now if I wanted to, I could find employment at Blockbuster Video or a Home Depot but for $10-$12 an hour, I simply can not provide for my family so it is better that I have the time between 9-5 to make cold sales calls, go to meetings, try and get deposits from customers, and yes.... even try and collect the final payment once the websites are done and put into production. As of late, many of my customers are paying their bills later and later every month IF AT ALL.

To be quite honest, I know more people are are NOT employed right now than I do that are. And to echo what someone said earlier, those who are still working are being gouged by the employer to work more hours for less pay and fewer benefits to cover all the people they had to let go. What a terrible predicament to be in! I don't know who is worse off, the ones who got let go of the ones who have to linger on at a dead end job and kiss ass to get the few bucks they now make.

So for those who DON'T think this administration should wear the target on their collective foreheads as being the cause of this downturn are just blind IMHO. As soon as there was even a hint that Bush would win, investors started lining up at 3am like a bunch of pre-pubescent boys lining up for Britney Spears concert tickets to sell off all there stocks, make their money, and abandon the stock market that for all intents and purposes, was fueling our strong economy back in the late 90's.

 

[Zebo]

So for those who DON'T think this administration should wear the target on their collective foreheads as being the cause of this downturn are just blind IMHO. As soon as there was even a hint that Bush would win, investors started lining up at 3am like a bunch of pre-pubescent boys lining up for Britney Spears concert tickets to sell off all there stocks, make their money, and abandon the stock market that for all intents and purposes, was fueling our strong economy back in the late 90's.

The market was overvalued. Still is.. what does bush have to do with this? It was created by naive investors thinking the perpertual stock climb and get-rich-quick philosophy could go on forever, and the naive/401K growth fund holders lost big. I don't know what to say other than lots of things are bushs' fault but not this. As a matter of a fact bush is spending as much money as possible (debt and lower taxes) trying to stimulate hiring but I think the market will hit reality again...and 2000 again where it should be. I look for things to get worse not better.

1. Too many people here
2. Almost free labor from China and Mexico...You can thank Clinton for that GATT and NAFTA signing...now the effects are being felt which lowers all wages accross the board because more people are competing for each and every JOB here since there are less jobs in general because of exodus.
3. Unbridled marketing power, purchasing, legislation power of the corporation which makes it impossible for small guys to compete. Sell your electronics store and go work at Best Buy.

At least Bush Slapped 30% tariffs on steel so some workers stayed busy in USA>

 

[BOBDN]

Originally posted by: XZeroII

Originally posted by: BOBDN

But with the looming budget deficits it's too soon to say we're out of the woods.

The economy will continue to appear to improve until the time comes to pay the piper.

CONGRATS!!! You win first prize for the most ignorant statement posted in this thread so far! Your prize is a chance to do some research on the subject and get a clue.

Hi XZeroII

I missed your post but want to take the time to thank you for being so confrontational. Also wondering who appointed you to hand out forum prizes. But no matter.

Here's a little piece I read in today's paper. It being labor day and all I found it particularly appropriate.

Maybe you can share your unique, confrontational, virulent views with us on this:

Do Jobs Not Matter Anymore?

PS

The industry I'm in, transportation, is a barometer of future economic activity. And I can tell you there hasn't been any increase here. Even with the continued consolidation in our industry. Major transportation companies closing putting thousands out of work ie Consolidated Freightways which used last Labor Day to honor their hard working employees by closing their doors. This Labor Day it's the Bush administration to honor America's workers by highlighting their plan to deny millions of us over-time pay. Great country America. As long as you're in the top 1%.

But according to you I'm ignorant. See you on the unemployment line because the "pick up" in Bush's economy is only for those at the top.

edit typo

 

[BOBDN]

Originally posted by: Zebo

2. Almost free labor from China and Mexico...You can thank Clinton for that GATT and NAFTA signing...now the effects are being felt which lowers all wages accross the board because more people are competing for each and every JOB here since there are less jobs in general because of exodus.

A small detail you may not be aware of. NAFTA was George H.W. Bush's baby. Remember Carla Hills, Bush's primary US negotiator of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)??

Just a small detail. You may continue blaming President Clinton for everything now.

 

[Zebo]

Originally posted by: BOBDN

Originally posted by: Zebo

2. Almost free labor from China and Mexico...You can thank Clinton for that GATT and NAFTA signing...now the effects are being felt which lowers all wages accross the board because more people are competing for each and every JOB here since there are less jobs in general because of exodus.

A small detail you may not be aware of. NAFTA was George H.W. Bush's baby. Remember Carla Hills, Bush's primary US negotiator of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)??

Just a small detail. You may continue blaming President Clinton for everything now.

Maybe but Clinton was it's cheerleader and signer...I guess he had to keep the real money rolling in...governement and it's leaders are so corrupt today is the main reason I see no diff between rep and dem..all are bankrupting this country and killing the middle class while making it very profitable for huge corporations.

 

[BOBDN]

Originally posted by: Zebo

Maybe but Clinton was it's cheerleader and signer...I guess he had to keep the real money rolling in...governement and it's leaders are so corrupt today is the main reason I see no diff between rep and dem..all are bankrupting this country and killing the middle class while making it very profitable for huge corporations.

I've heard that view expressed by people before. But after Bush's performance over the past 3 years IMO the Democrats are definitely the lesser of the two evils.

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: BOBDN

Originally posted by: Zebo
Maybe but Clinton was it's cheerleader and signer...I guess he had to keep the real money rolling in...governement and it's leaders are so corrupt today is the main reason I see no diff between rep and dem..all are bankrupting this country and killing the middle class while making it very profitable for huge corporations.

I've heard that view expressed by people before. But after Bush's performance over the past 3 years IMO the Democrats are definitely the lesser of the two evils.

My inclination is to think Bush-lite is merely an aberration, that a normal Republican would be about as fiscally irresponsible as a normal Democrat. But then I remember Reagan and begin to wonder if the whole party has been tainted beyond repair. I do think Zebo is right overall. Both parties are too beholden to corporate interests at the expense of the American people.

 

[Tripleshot]

My inclination is to think Bush-lite is merely an aberration, that a normal Republican would be about as fiscally irresponsible as a normal Democrat. But then I remember Reagan and begin to wonder if the whole party has been tainted beyond repair. I do think Zebo is right overall. Both parties are too beholden to corporate interests at the expense of the American people.

No argument from me there. The question is what can we do about it?

 

[BOBDN]

Originally posted by: Tripleshot

My inclination is to think Bush-lite is merely an aberration, that a normal Republican would be about as fiscally irresponsible as a normal Democrat. But then I remember Reagan and begin to wonder if the whole party has been tainted beyond repair. I do think Zebo is right overall. Both parties are too beholden to corporate interests at the expense of the American people.

No argument from me there. The question is what can we do about it?

We've tried the third party route but the system is rigged to favor the two major parties.

Vote for a third party candidate and you could end up with someone like Bush.

Although Nader supporters didn't think there was any difference I wonder if they still feel that way now.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: BOBDN

Originally posted by: Zebo

Maybe but Clinton was it's cheerleader and signer...I guess he had to keep the real money rolling in...governement and it's leaders are so corrupt today is the main reason I see no diff between rep and dem..all are bankrupting this country and killing the middle class while making it very profitable for huge corporations.

I've heard that view expressed by people before. But after Bush's performance over the past 3 years IMO the Democrats are definitely the lesser of the two evils.

Good stuff guys.

There is no doubt after the last three years that the Dem party is better suited in and leaning towards the common folk. This system of rewarding the Top Excecs and giving Federal level type reign to these Corporations has not only caused such massive consolidations and Economic collaspe but has also resulted in bastardizing the Country to the point of no longer a super power in anything other than the Military and that alone is not going to cut it.

Connecticut Labor Day labor strike at Yale results in arrests including Jeese Jackson

Workers went 2 years without a raise

"The unions want more substantial raises and larger pension benefits, as well as retroactive pay for the 20 months workers stayed on the job without contracts."

"We're very concerned about this economy," said Patrick Devlin, secretary-treasurer of the Greater Detroit Building and Construction Trades Council. "People talk about the economy picking up, but we don't see it."

 

[dmcowen674]

Bush Looks to Stem Manufacturing Job Loss

"Bush's motorcade route took him along stately homes in an affluent neighborhood, and clusters of supporters waved signs backing the president."

"Bush said he had directed Commerce Secretary Don Evans to establish an assistant position to focus "on the needs of manufacturers."

"Bush did not name the new manufacturing official, and gave no timetable for offering a nomination to the Senate. Nor did he specify what duties the new post would include."

"He spent most of his speech expressing empathy for anxious workers, and wiping rain from his head, which became thoroughly drenched despite his union hat.

"I want you to understand that I understand that Ohio manufacturers are hurting, that there's a problem with the manufacturing sector," Bush said. "I understand that for a full recovery, to make sure people can find work, that manufacturing must do better."
--------------------------------------------------

A little late. Maybe even too late to save re-election next year.

 

[LunarRay]

Originally posted by: UnemployedMay2001

Originally posted by: LunarRay
The last six or seven posts paints a dismal picture.

UnemployedMay2001 and DM are you guys not able to find any thing at all? Or just in your expertise?

In my field of expertise. I was the Creative Director for a large web development company. I was gainfully employed in the IT sector from 1995 - 2001 making more and more money every year. As soon as there was even a *hint* that George W. was going to win the election back in late 2000, we could see slowly but surely our company's stock go down day by day until in May of 2001, when the stock that was at $180 a share down to $4. Came in Monday and was told that the entire company, 450 employees strong were all getting let go because the company was closing it's doors.

So for the last 2 1/2 years I have had to wear many hats while trying to keep my family of 5 solvent. I have resorted to designing websites for small businesses in the Detroit area. If I sell one $2500 website a month I can pay the bills and make sure the kids have food and the bare extra necessities like school clothes, supplies, new shoes, etc. Forget about Health Care as I can not even come close to having enough money to pay those lofty fees.

My other "skill" to fall back on is that I was a mechanical engineer back in the early 90's but even with skills in that area and having knowledge of different CAD softwares does not make me any more employable in my region. When Ford, GM, and Chrysler are hurting, the entire Michigan economy follows suit as they in so many ways, support many of the little industries in our area.

**********

Geepers, $180 to $4 because GB won in 2000. I'd have expected just the opposite. I'd have thought business would have favored GB over Gore.
In any event, Your story is a sad one and a one of determination in the face of uncertainty. Some would not be up to the task. Many who face similar situations and have the same type of background and assets do notl find a way to prevail.
I hope things end up as you wish them to.

 

[charliebrown]

Here is a tragically funny web site of a girl who's been unemployed for 2 years, sent out 2000+ resumes and gone on countless interviews...
All About Jen

 

[rjain]

About Mfg. jobs: One good thing the gov't is doing is keeping the dollar's value low. If the dollar's value kept being propped up by China, Japan, and their neighbors, we'd really be suffering now.

Oh, and if you think all the jobs are going to China and Mexico, why don't you move there and enjoy their wonderful economies? Oh wait, you'd be paid FAR LOWER than minimum wage here. Stop whining. Those cheap laborers are the only reason manufactured goods are so cheap here. Ditto for services and India. If you want a job, you have to either have to outbid someone else or you have to outperform them and find the demand for better quality. This is the same issue we've had forever. Dirty furriners have always been stealing "our" jobs by doing them for less pay. It's why your ancestors came here, too. And it's called a free (i.e. non-communist) market.

 

[SuperTool]

I don't know if I want the economy to improve. I am kind of enjoying the downturn. Rents are down, traffic is low, all we need is a real estate bust, and I'll really be happy.
I guess if I lost my job I would be talking differently.

 

[Konigin]

I think so, and when Christmas rolls around things should be looking pretty good.

 

[BOBDN]

Originally posted by: rjain
About Mfg. jobs: One good thing the gov't is doing is keeping the dollar's value low. If the dollar's value kept being propped up by China, Japan, and their neighbors, we'd really be suffering now.

Oh, and if you think all the jobs are going to China and Mexico, why don't you move there and enjoy their wonderful economies? Oh wait, you'd be paid FAR LOWER than minimum wage here. Stop whining. Those cheap laborers are the only reason manufactured goods are so cheap here. Ditto for services and India. If you want a job, you have to either have to outbid someone else or you have to outperform them and find the demand for better quality. This is the same issue we've had forever. Dirty furriners have always been stealing "our" jobs by doing them for less pay. It's why your ancestors came here, too. And it's called a free (i.e. non-communist) market.

Let me get this straight.

We're supposed to be happy jobs are being exported so goods are cheaper here although we can't buy them because there aren't any jobs.

And if we want work we're supposed to "outbid" someone?

Voodoo economics all over again.

 

[LunarRay]

Originally posted by: rjain
About Mfg. jobs: One good thing the gov't is doing is keeping the dollar's value low. If the dollar's value kept being propped up by China, Japan, and their neighbors, we'd really be suffering now.

Oh, and if you think all the jobs are going to China and Mexico, why don't you move there and enjoy their wonderful economies? Oh wait, you'd be paid FAR LOWER than minimum wage here. Stop whining. Those cheap laborers are the only reason manufactured goods are so cheap here. Ditto for services and India. If you want a job, you have to either have to outbid someone else or you have to outperform them and find the demand for better quality. This is the same issue we've had forever. Dirty furriners have always been stealing "our" jobs by doing them for less pay. It's why your ancestors came here, too. And it's called a free (i.e. non-communist) market.

A pair of nike sneekers made in whereever still cost $100. The profit margin is large and it is going to the owners of Nike and the corp big wigs...

This nation is not the most powerfull today because it bought its goods abroad. It HAD the strongest manufacturing base in the world. If we return to this concept instead of trying to use our money to sway every nation on earth at the expense of every citizen (excluding the rich and perpetrators of this economic nightmare) we'd have employment opportunities here and encourage the economy to health. Perhaps prices in some cases would be higher but, at with all things considered the dollars in our pockets and those of our grand kids would be secure.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: BOBDN

Let me get this straight.

We're supposed to be happy jobs are being exported so goods are cheaper here although we can't buy them because there aren't any jobs.

And if we want work we're supposed to "outbid" someone?

Voodoo economics all over again.

Originally posted by: LunarRay

A pair of nike sneekers made in whereever still cost $100. The profit margin is large and it is going to the owners of Nike and the corp big wigs...

This nation is not the most powerfull today because it bought its goods abroad. It HAD the strongest manufacturing base in the world. If we return to this concept instead of trying to use our money to sway every nation on earth at the expense of every citizen (excluding the rich and perpetrators of this economic nightmare) we'd have employment opportunities here and encourage the economy to health. Perhaps prices in some cases would be higher but, at with all things considered the dollars in our pockets and those of our grand kids would be secure.

Excellent posts guys, thanks you. Nice to see there are some poeple that see the Forest through the Trees here.

So sad for the others. Of course they are most likely the fat and happy Corporate Execs or Lawyers reaping the benefits of the carnage going on so they don't give a crap anyway.

 

[manly]

I'm rather unimpressed since charrison has been calling the economic recovery for about a year now, and touting how mild the recession was. Now at the first glimpse of 4% GDP growth (some optimistically even say exceeding 6%) in the upcoming quarter, partisans gladly proclaim the Bush tax cuts are taking effect. Most of us will be taking a cautious outlook due to lackluster job creation:

http://money.cnn.com/2003/08/28/news/economy/job_outlook/index.htm?cnn=yes

Chances are that if the economy does not sustain 4-5% GDP growth through the next four quarters, there *will* be a net loss of jobs. It remains to be seen if this will affect Bush's reelection. You have to remember that many of the people struggling to make ends meet don't get out and vote in strong numbers. The perception of this administration's care of the economy could well matter much more than the reality of millions of disgruntled, eneasy Americans.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: manly
I'm rather unimpressed since charrison has been calling the economic recovery for about a year now, and touting how mild the recession was. Now at the first glimpse of 4% GDP growth (some optimistically even say exceeding 6%) in the upcoming quarter, partisans gladly proclaim the Bush tax cuts are taking effect. Most of us will be taking a cautious outlook due to lackluster job creation:

http://money.cnn.com/2003/08/28/news/economy/job_outlook/index.htm?cnn=yes

Chances are that if the economy does not sustain 4-5% GDP growth through the next four quarters, there *will* be a net loss of jobs. It remains to be seen if this will affect Bush's reelection. You have to remember that many of the people struggling to make ends meet don't get out and vote in strong numbers. The perception of this administration's care of the economy could well matter much more than the reality of millions of disgruntled, eneasy Americans.

"You have to remember that many of the people struggling to make ends meet don't get out and vote in strong numbers."

You've got to be kidding. That would be one of the top reasons there would be a huge turnout. People vote on emotions.