You can tell if the game is bad in the first couple hours. Especially if you are smart enough to know the refund policy exists and can do your own research before the purchase.
The severe lack of demos hurts though. Demos used to be out months before, now they hardly are even out. Or out well after the game. I want a Madden 16 demo, is it out? Nope! Fucking sucks. The return policy on games is not good enough for me.
I still prefer hard disks, but not that much anymore. On PC's I buy almost everything with Steam or when I absolutely have to, Origin. Haven't bought a hard disk for PC in years.